Bitcoin Must Crash - $7500 Is The Peak

[panju1]

I would define crash as anything below $3,000. We are a long, long way from that. Bitcoin is already stabilizing and has refused to go below $7,000. The consensus is that we could make a move to $10k anytime soon.

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[Izarok]

This current rally is the same as the one in 2013, the only difference is the scale:
   

The current rally is an exponential rise.

All financial markets that rise exponentially will crash - even for the best of investment medium. It is almost a law of nature, just like the law of large numbers and the return to the norm.

Without the cancellation this fork rally would have superseeded $9000 with ease. Just some days been missing.

I do wonder if there had been insider news out there, since the S2X futures had been trading on extremely low volume. Merely because only obscure sites offering them? Or ... knowledge before the event?

Yep. If the announcement of Segwit2x cancellation has been speculated by a month ago pricing would pretty much be different by a lot. It might reach $9000 today if it wasn't for Segwit2x. But more than that I think it is pretty much a Jebait in pricing though.

[DaMut]

i do not think we will see another history repeat again in the near future,
and in my opinion 2013 and 2017 are totally different,
what i am talking about is back then the price is pumping while the demand itself it's not really that many compared today.
and the other reason behind that mass dump a while ago because of an exit pump caused by MT.GOX,but for now ?
also crash ? that will not happen because if we called it 'crash',does that mean it will never recover its value back in the future,right ?
even if what you said is correct,the value of this asset will be totally destroyed in the future and of course it'll be gone,
because the 'crash' itself mean the 'gone',but right now i could not find a reason about this 'crash'.
at best we should see a correction,nothing more than that and it has a lot of room to grow for future.

[thinair]

coindesk.com 1 day price chart:
https://www.coindesk.com/price

$7083 Thu 9 Nov 23:50 UTC
$7319 Fri 10 Nov 01:00 UTC
$7100 Fri 10 Nov 10:00 UTC
A sharp vertical rise in  1hr 10 min.
A slow drop in 9 hr. back to where it started at $7100.

The above prices from the 1 day chart illustrates a typical pattern of the "pump-and-dumb" by the very powerful players. How do they do it?

Say this player has a fund of $100 million (just hypothetical figures). He computes the average rate of transaction for the recent past, say 1 day, to be X BTC/hr. He buys $100 million of BTC evenly at rate 20X BTC/hr. The price would shoot up vertical. After completing buying his $100 million BTC, he sells all the acquired BTC, but at a reduced rate of 2X BTC/hr evenly, unloading all BTC and getting back his $100 million - he takes no risk keeping any BTC. In a rising market, such as before the news about the cancellation of the Segwit2x hard fork, he would find that after unloading all the BTC, he makes a profit, say $25 million.

The reason for the $25 million is simple human psychology. After the steep rise in price, every bid/offer thereafter will have a higher market price expectation. New first time buyers would be pulled along and buy at such pumped-up prices. That's how the $25 million of profit is almost guaranteed .      

The $100 million is recycled all the time for the last 1 year. On average every cycle will be profitable. When it becomes unprofitable when the last few pumps do not make a profit, it indicates a market top.

This typical pump-and-dump figures as shown above shows the market getting back to where it started - $7100. It is a red flag that the market is at its peak:
   

The BTC market must crash - $7500 is the peak. There are insufficient first time new buyers entering the market.

   
From now onward, the very powerful players would be unloading ALL (such players do not have any concept of "buy-and-hold") their large holdings of bitcoins, but at a very even pace over a longer time span, say of 1½ years; these large hoard of coins could have been acquire at $500.

[babanana]

We are all waiting the time when we'll pay everything with bitcoin with ease, there's no sense in changing back bitcoin to fiat.

Pork belly will probably pump next years, but is difficult to store and it stinks, and if you try to send it by mail regulators will stop it.

Bitcoin will never and can never replace fiat:
One of the quality needed for a token to be money is that the total supply is evenly distributed among the population. Even though Bill Gates's wealth is into the billions, his personal holding of cash USD is only an miniscule  part of the total US money supply. But Bitcoin is not distributed throughout the world's population and so can never serve as money.

Bitcoin may only be a medium of speculation:
Bitcoin will only ensure more wealth transfer from the bottom 99% to the top 1%

By definition, the world of speculation means the bottom 95% of small investor will always suffer lost. In the current rally to above USD7500, these 95% will never ultimately be sitting happily with their "profits" riding the wave upwards. By definition, the correction would be a bloody for the 95%.     

It is a myth that Bitcoin is anyway near being "money". Most bitcoin enthusiasts believe fervently that we have found "the money that...bankers cannot touch" and which is the very answer and antidote for fiat money - it is not.

      Bitcoin for buy and hold is only self-delusion. The 21 millions of BTC can never be evenly distributed among the 7.6 billion of the worlds population.

 
Just this alone will ensure that Bitcoin will offer no economic benefit  to the world.

Your analysis are not suited for bitcoin. Bitcoin breaks every foundation of stocks trading.

[Kingofbitcoin12345]

Bitcoin is new born investments that doesn’t have no rules to follow,, those you’ve mentioned won’t give the real time brain movement of each investors.. Those holders might not aiming for a small profits that is why they don’t sell at the peak price for a months.. They have more than enough reason in doing so,, that is trust to cryptocurrency future as well as it’s popularity seems moving faster around the world..

[thinair]

Bitcoin is new born investments that doesn’t have no rules to follow,, those you’ve mentioned won’t give the real time brain movement of each investors.. Those holders might not aiming for a small profits that is why they don’t sell at the peak price for a months.. They have more than enough reason in doing so,, that is trust to cryptocurrency future as well as it’s popularity seems moving faster around the world..

Sure. We all see things differently.

But there are immutable laws of nature.

[lili song]

Yes this could be happen, I think this value can be happen until end of this year.
Every years demand of bitcoin is raise and more investors will joint in bitcoin.

[senne]

if you want to track bitcoin price will be crazy because it break all normal rules and always up

You are true about you predication about Bitcoin as it is hard to track the price of Bitcoin. But here let's focus upon the crash or correction in the price of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is just increasing non-stop and it has severe effect on alt coin also, increase in Bitcoin price is beneficial but rising at such a speed can cause great loss to alt market and everyone may just get concentrated to Bitcoin only.

[thinair]

Reading the posts in this forum, it could easily be seen that many of those who bought bitcoins don't know what they are doing. They act only because they have been influenced by all the talk about how great bitcoin is - about blockchain, hashrate, proof-of-work, 256 bits private keys, difficulty level, SHA256, 21 million limit... - how it could end world hunger, put wealth into every creature on earth...the greatest creation in mankind's history since Eve was created from a rib bone plucked from Adam's,...

Investment is almost the same as speculation and the difference is only a fine line. Unless you explicitly do not "invest" for profit, the medium of investment is immaterial; you go where there is the most profit in the shortest time frame. If coffee futures will make you a 1000% profit in a year, go for it! Only don't do Heroin futures, etc.    

Matthew 6:34King James Version (KJV) 34

Take therefore no thought for the morrow:
for the morrow shall take thought for the things of itself.
Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof.

Don't worry about the fiat system or Bitcoin,
What power do you wield when you buy at 7000,
Wait for 5 years in the red,
To again knock on the door to 7000,
Worrying about the 'morrow for 5 years.  

Those who insist they will buy-and-hold as their target is $10,000. Come $10,000.

   Seek and you shall find,
   Knock and the door of $10,000 shalt be open unto thee.

What are you going to do? OK I'll sell as I have reached my target. The market keeps going higher and higher, $11,000, $12,000... You cannot wait and enter the door of $15,000 unbeckoned  

Success as an investor means timing - ability to read signs and to pick highs and lows relatively well.  

[Mehedi72]

Mate, i think Yeah you are right.  Bitcoin already dump around 6900$ and now 1 Bitcoin equals 6828.06 US Dollar. Possible to go down more but i Always believe in bitcoin and i think bitcoin able to recover its price within 1 month and  obviously can hit 10k dollsr or more in the next few months

[Stedsm]

Reading the posts in this forum, it could easily be seen that many of those who bought bitcoins don't know what they are doing. They act only because they have been influenced by all the talk about how great bitcoin is - about blockchain, hashrate, proof-of-work, 256 bits private keys, difficulty level, SHA256, 21 million limit... - how it could end world hunger, put wealth into every creature on earth...the greatest creation in mankind's history since Eve was created from a rib bone plucked from Adam's,...

Seeing your history translates it to you thinking and defining Bitcoins as a Pyramid scheme itself, the way Dimon said.
There's nothing wrong when you say that, as everyone has their own thinking and it differs from point-to-point.
Let me evaluate those words which ^influenced^ everyone here.
Blockchain is the best technology that could eradicate corruption from almost every field.
Hashrate is the mining power that's generated through combination of internet, electricity and mining equipment to generate bitcoins and run blockchain. PoW is the "type of protocol" miners need to follow (for Bitcoins) in order to generate it.
Private keys are something without which we hold nothing even if we have more than 1k Bitcoins on an address that's possessed by an exchange.
Difficulty level is the level that determines the current difficulty of the "mathematical problem" that mining power needs to solve.
SHA256 is the algorithm on which Bitcoin works. 21 million total Bitcoins will ever be mined.

Now, who compared Bitcoins to the world's "greatest creation" in mankind history? Satoshi never told Bitcoins would end world hunger, but it can at least give you something as an "extra income" to pay bills or buy some grocery for a few days of the month. Those who earn it, know about the potential as well as value of it.

Investment is almost the same as speculation and the difference is only a fine line. Unless you explicitly do not "invest" for profit, the medium of investment is immaterial; you go where there is the most profit in the shortest time frame. If coffee futures will make you a 1000% profit in a year, go for it! Only don't do Heroin futures, etc.  

 

Everyone invests for profit as "investments" are meant to be bound by expectations that it will yield us something in the future, which makes speculation directly correlated to it. If you were at my place, wouldn't you buy the same coffee futures you told us to, when you know (or have some insider info) that it will yield you a 10x profit in short term?

Success as an investor means timing - ability to read signs and to pick highs and lows relatively well.  

The only line that impressed me as well as the real truth.

[stompix]

Bitcoin will never and can never replace fiat:
One of the quality needed for a token to be money is that the total supply is evenly distributed among the population. Even though Bill Gates's wealth is into the billions, his personal holding of cash USD is only an miniscule  part of the total US money supply. But Bitcoin is not distributed throughout the world's population and so can never serve as money.

Bitcoin may only be a medium of speculation:
Bitcoin will only ensure more wealth transfer from the bottom 99% to the top 1%

By definition, the world of speculation means the bottom 95% of small investor will always suffer lost. In the current rally to above USD7500, these 95% will never ultimately be sitting happily with their "profits" riding the wave upwards. By definition, the correction would be a bloody for the 95%.     

It is a myth that Bitcoin is anyway near being "money". Most bitcoin enthusiasts believe fervently that we have found "the money that...bankers cannot touch" and which is the very answer and antidote for fiat money - it is not.

      Bitcoin for buy and hold is only self-delusion. The 21 millions of BTC can never be evenly distributed among the 7.6 billion of the worlds population.

 
Just this alone will ensure that Bitcoin will offer no economic benefit  to the world.

What's with all this socialist propaganda around here?
Why does bitcoin have to be distributed evenly among the world population?

Is not wealth distributed equally?
Let me give you an example:

In 2012, the Indian government stated 22% of its population is below its official poverty limit. The World Bank, in 2011 based on 2005's PPPs International Comparison Program, estimated 23.6% of Indian population, or about 276 million people, lived below $1.25 per day on purchasing power parity.

This would mean that all those 200 and so million people will earn less than 1 million workers in the it sector in US.
Do you think wealth is equally distributed?
Let's compare what an average american has and what an average Somali person.

Bitcoin was never meant to make people equal nor was a magic socialist utopia solution.
Deal with it, no matter what the system is , some will be 1 million times wealthier than the others.

[thinair]

Bitcoin will never and can never replace fiat:
One of the quality needed for a token to be money is that the total supply is evenly distributed among the population. Even though Bill Gates's wealth is into the billions, his personal holding of cash USD is only an miniscule  part of the total US money supply. But Bitcoin is not distributed throughout the world's population and so can never serve as money.

Bitcoin may only be a medium of speculation:
Bitcoin will only ensure more wealth transfer from the bottom 99% to the top 1%

By definition, the world of speculation means the bottom 95% of small investor will always suffer lost. In the current rally to above USD7500, these 95% will never ultimately be sitting happily with their "profits" riding the wave upwards. By definition, the correction would be a bloody for the 95%.     

It is a myth that Bitcoin is anyway near being "money". Most bitcoin enthusiasts believe fervently that we have found "the money that...bankers cannot touch" and which is the very answer and antidote for fiat money - it is not.

      Bitcoin for buy and hold is only self-delusion. The 21 millions of BTC can never be evenly distributed among the 7.6 billion of the worlds population.

 
Just this alone will ensure that Bitcoin will offer no economic benefit  to the world.

What's with all this socialist propaganda around here?
Why does bitcoin have to be distributed evenly among the world population?

Is not wealth distributed equally?
Let me give you an example:

In 2012, the Indian government stated 22% of its population is below its official poverty limit. The World Bank, in 2011 based on 2005's PPPs International Comparison Program, estimated 23.6% of Indian population, or about 276 million people, lived below $1.25 per day on purchasing power parity.

This would mean that all those 200 and so million people will earn less than 1 million workers in the it sector in US.
Do you think wealth is equally distributed?
Let's compare what an average american has and what an average Somali person.

Bitcoin was never meant to make people equal nor was a magic socialist utopia solution.
Deal with it, no matter what the system is , some will be 1 million times wealthier than the others.

It seems most of the people here confuse ownership of wealth with ownership of cash - coins in your pocket to buy your grocery.

Say Bill Gates hates all these cards, Visa/MasterCard - he only believes in current account and dollar bills. He goes to the grocery and pays with coins and bills. He lives in a hut paying rental, etc. He needs a current account balance of only $30,000 to last for a month. His wealth goes into the billions, but his ownership of coins (compare, Bitcoin) is $30,000. His ownership of the total US money supply is $30,000.

Many of you probably have current account of $100,000. You hold more proportion  of the US money supply M3 than Bill Gates. This is the crux. A poor in India may only have $5 in his pocket, but this 5: 30,000 still means the US dollar money supply is "well" distributed throughout the population - this is the most important criteria for a token to qualify as a medium of payment and exchange.

   Bitcoin will never be able to fulfill the role as a token of payment.

     

Ownership of the M3 money supply at any moment is not the same as ownership of wealth.

[thinair]

https://www.coindesk.com/price
10 Nov 21:00  UTC - $6424,  low
11 Nov  02:00 to 05:00    $6800,  high

Rebound from $6400 to $6800 in 5 hr. Now about $6700.

This rebound can easily be understood. It is from those wanting to acquire more bitcoins on dips at "better" prices. Another group is those wanting to have a piece of this bitcoin thing and now entering the first time because of the dip.     

It is very, very likely that $7500 is the all-time-high for the next 5 years because there won't be enough of new investors to push the price again to new highs. The very large players would now be taking profits pushing back bitcoin to $1000 - $2000 levels.

For those who have not bought into Bitcoin yet:

   If you can't wait for 1½ years, try at least to wait for a month.
   Wait!

[poodle63]

I would define crash as anything below $3,000. We are a long, long way from that. Bitcoin is already stabilizing and has refused to go below $7,000. The consensus is that we could make a move to $10k anytime soon.

At least we must think about the $6000 should be the next bottom of the bitcoin itself, due to the a lot of the FUD from the bitcoin cash fans to the bitcoin in various forum and the cryptonews site especially about the bitcoin cahs supporter's site just like bitcoin.com

[Slark]

If you can't wait for 1½ years, try at least to wait for a month.
Wait!

So according to your predictions, we will see an even greater price decline within next month?
I don't think it will be that long a time needed to fully process current correction - IMO we will not have this dip for more than 2 weeks.
But you are right, the time to buy bitcoin is now - anyone who waited for a good entry point - this is the time for you.

[Altas]

I would define crash as anything below $3,000. We are a long, long way from that. Bitcoin is already stabilizing and has refused to go below $7,000. The consensus is that we could make a move to $10k anytime soon.

At least we must think about the $6000 should be the next bottom of the bitcoin itself, due to the a lot of the FUD from the bitcoin cash fans to the bitcoin in various forum and the cryptonews site especially about the bitcoin cahs supporter's site just like bitcoin.com

The low bottom value of bitcoin too cannot be predicted at present. The value has declined in a much steeper manner and still continues. Now the alts too have been experiencing dump, so soon can expect price increase altogether. This can be used as an opportunity to into bitcoin and altcoins.

[lumeire]

I would define crash as anything below $3,000. We are a long, long way from that. Bitcoin is already stabilizing and has refused to go below $7,000. The consensus is that we could make a move to $10k anytime soon.

IMO the price is already treading dangerous levels, it looks like it can break and crash any moment. Hopefully, the strong demand we have right now would be sustained.

[Inkdatar]

I would define crash as anything below $3,000. We are a long, long way from that. Bitcoin is already stabilizing and has refused to go below $7,000. The consensus is that we could make a move to $10k anytime soon.

IMO the price is already treading dangerous levels, it looks like it can break and crash any moment. Hopefully, the strong demand we have right now would be sustained.

Many have been surprise with bitcoin drops due to segwit cancellation. But as usual it is normal in bitcoin movement in the exchange price suddenly drops. Yet hope this is temporary that btc will recovering.