Just-Dice.com : now with added CLAMs : Play or Invest

[PryptoMontreal]

Quite a ballsy bet.

I wasn't online at the time.

Site profit has passed 90k. 327 million bets.

Oh don't tell me. That was a dumb bet. Going all in is really dumb if you have big bankroll. Congrats Doog on passing 90k profit. Make it to 100k asap

[1713535172]

1713535172

[1713535172]

1713535172

[1713535172]

1713535172

[1713535172]

1713535172

[dooglus]

So we had 3 big losses recently:

swim: https://i.imgur.com/ktsKIJl.png

x: https://i.imgur.com/GJCd27g.png

and now alice: https://i.imgur.com/ByiyeQW.png



Here's how they fit on the site's recent profit chart:

[nakaone]

I estimate that coins in the JD bankroll make about 0.2% per day just from staking. Any loans made would presumably have to charge at least that much.

which also had some serious implications since the interest rate for btc is around 0.04%, for dash is around 0.03% and for xmr is 0.004 % (!)

CLAM is proof of stake. Everyone holding it has the opportunity to stake it and get that 0.2% interest per day. So while it is a kind of inflation, it is a fairly distributed inflation. It should still lead to the price per CLAM decreasing, but in step with the money supply increasing. The net result should be that the value in any particular staking wallet stays about the same.

Compare this to the dollar or other fiat currency, where the new coins aren't distributed to the current holders fairly. Your dollars become a smaller and smaller percentage of the money supply each time new dollars are issued, since none of them are being issued to you.

now we will have an exciting experiment on poloniex - let the traders understand the interest rate given by clams and we will see a different price range than the one given now.

is poloniex the biggest exchange for clams?

[dooglus]

now we will have an exciting experiment on poloniex - let the traders understand the interest rate given by clams and we will see a different price range than the one given now.

I saw someone offering a CLAM loan on the poloniex loans market for 0.005% per day recently. It was only for a tiny amount, but still. that's a quarter as much as he would get simply by staking for himself.

is poloniex the biggest exchange for clams?

http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/clams/#markets can answer that (ie. it isn't just the biggest, it is pretty much the only...):

[marilyn4325]

no we will have an exciting experiment on poloniex - let the traders understand the interest rate given by clams and we will see a different price range than the one given now.

I think you are right. There will be a high demand for CLAMs, because it has such a good interest rate, which will outperform inflation in the end, until it stabilize at a high exchange rate. The only problem at the moment is the technical difficulties that you have to run your own CLAM client, if you don't want to invest in a gambling site, and the usual trader might not be comfortable with it. A reputable investment company should create a CLAM staking pool service.

[dooglus]

[...] it has such a good interest rate, which will outperform inflation in the end [...]

I don't really understand - the interest *is* the inflation isn't it?

[marilyn4325]

[...] it has such a good interest rate, which will outperform inflation in the end [...]

I don't really understand - the interest *is* the inflation isn't it?

You are right, I mean the demand will outperform the inflation, because everyone hopes that they will get more money, which I think you can already see, because the rate was very stable in the last few months. Should have dropped more with just the inflation.

But I wonder how I explain CLAM interest profit to my tax accountant. She had already a hard time to understand and book BTC exchange profits

[blueparrot]

I think the main problem is the missing utility of CLAM outside of just-dice.
If dooglus gets bored with crypto in 2 years and decides to close just-dice (remember, it already happened once  )
the CLAM price will drop to zero.

Apart from this I don´t see any real problems with CLAM.
And in spite of my doubts regarding longevity of CLAM I´m invested at just-dice and will continue to do so.
Maybe I´m betting that dooglus will continue running the site for a few more years 

[v1rtu0so]

Maybe I´m betting that dooglus will continue running the site for a few more years 

I think there are a number of others in the same boat. On a side note, Dooglus you have Comkort hotlisted on JD as an exchange but on their website they show this message:

COMKORT - CLOSED
2nd June 23:15  33 comments
Dear Users,

Regretfully we have to inform you that Comkort exchange is ceasing operation. Throughout the whole term of our existence we have strived to deliver an the best possible service for profitable cryptocurrency trading. And yet, the time has come to terminate our service.

In light of these event ALL users have to withdraw their funds before July 19th, 2015 inclusively. July 20th, 2015 we will suspend servers which will deactivate all the wallets and all further withdrawals will be technically impossible.

Trading will be stopped July 1st, 2015 at 18:00 GMT. All active orders will be cancelled.

We kindly ask you to help us spread the news by retweeting our tweet and by simply sharing the news, since it will greatly facilitate the transition process.

We thank all of you, who has been with us these past years. We learned through our project, which would not have existed without your support.

The reason for closing is quite simple - the exchange has not been profitable. And NO - we will not sell the source code )

Withdraw and possible issues

During withdraw you can get error. Don't panic. Just let us know creating support ticket and we will fix it.

We wish you all best of luck.

[Cluster2k]

Even then this strategy doesn't make any sense. Thats like saying I wait for 10 <50% in a row to bet on >50% and generating an edge with it.

Of course we know all such gambling systems and looking for patterns are a logical fallacy and simply don't work, but I do hope people keep trying their tactics and strategies to defeat the laws of mathematics.

[dooglus]

On a side note, Dooglus you have Comkort hotlisted on JD as an exchange but on their website they show this message:

Thanks. I'll remove them from the FAQ and the auto-linking, and replace with a link to coinmarketcap's list of active markets.

I've also made "CLAM markets" link to the coinmarketcap page in the chat.

[chriswen]

Wow didn't notice poloniex added clams trading.

I think this should add liquidity to the market which is good.

I wonder if poloniex should implement staking bonuses.  So that people who are long could receive appreciation of their clams.  And people who loan clams out could have a bit of payment for leaving clams on the exchange (lose money for waiting).


Also my condolences to Alice.  That's some crazy martingale betting. 

[dooglus]

Wow didn't notice poloniex added clams trading.

It just happened a day or two ago I think.

I wonder if poloniex should implement staking bonuses.  So that people who are long could receive appreciation of their clams.  And people who loan clams out could have a bit of payment for leaving clams on the exchange (lose money for waiting).

I talked to their wallet manager about it. He told me they have no plans to stake any of the coins they hold. It's safer to keep them offline I guess.

If they would stake their CLAM wallet and share the rewards with their users I expect we would see a lot more depth on the "sell" side of the orderbook.

[freedomno1]

Wow didn't notice poloniex added clams trading.

It just happened a day or two ago I think.

Wasn't that traded months ago on polo or did they add leverage trading as well?
Nice to see the bank roll is nearing 10K ^^

[chriswen]

Wow didn't notice poloniex added clams trading.

It just happened a day or two ago I think.

Wasn't that traded months ago on polo or did they add leverage trading as well?
Nice to see the bank roll is nearing 10K ^^

They added leveraged trading.

[dooglus]

Nice to see the bank roll is nearing 10K ^^

Do you mean the site profit, and 100k?

It got up over 99k at one point, but then "upup" made a single all-in 49.5% bet:

bet #333517385: 2850 CLAM @ 49.5% lo: lucky:30.4222 profit:2850 balance:5700

[kolloh]

Nice to see the bank roll is nearing 10K ^^

Do you mean the site profit, and 100k?

It got up over 99k at one point, but then "upup" made a single all-in 49.5% bet:

bet #333517385: 2850 CLAM @ 49.5% lo: lucky:30.4222 profit:2850 balance:5700

Wow that is a big single all-in bet. YOLO I guess lol.

[aahzmundus]

Nice to see the bank roll is nearing 10K ^^

Do you mean the site profit, and 100k?

It got up over 99k at one point, but then "upup" made a single all-in 49.5% bet:

bet #333517385: 2850 CLAM @ 49.5% lo: lucky:30.4222 profit:2850 balance:5700

Wow that is a big single all-in bet. YOLO I guess lol.

Yes Indeed, A YOLO which needs balls of irons to do one  

[dooglus]

So a couple of days ago, DaDice added a jackpot feature to their site. It seems particularly poorly thought out, but it got me thinking...

How *should* a jackpot feature be implemented?

The DaDice jackpot has several flaws:

1) it's not provably fair at all - it depends on both the betid and the time, both of which can be undetectably maniputulated by the site

2) their jackpot has the best edge for the smallest bets; it actively encourages people to make tiny dust bets rather than big bets

3) their jackpot has a huge negative house edge; it is very gameable and unsustainable, unless they intend to cheat (see point 1)

So how can we do it better?

How about:

1) Since we have 6 digit rolls as opposed to their 4 digit rolls, we can get rid of the betid and current time components, and just make it that you need to roll 99.9999 to hit the jackpot. That makes the jackpot a 1-in-a-million chance. We see around 5 million bets per day, and so will see that many jackpot wins per day.

2) Clearly we need to scale the prize according to the amount risked. It's silly to encourage dust bets. And so hitting the jackpot will pay out a share of the prize pool based on the site of the bet. How about if the bet size in CLAMs is the percentage of the prize pool you win. So if you hit the jackpot with a bet of 5 CLAMs, you get 5% of the pool. That way the pool doesn't shrink too fast and gets a chance to build up. The vast majority of bets are dust, and so we can expect most jackpot wins to be bets staking less than 1 CLAM, and so it will be relatively rare that the pot goes down by much.

3) We've promised investors a 1% house edge, and 10% commission. The house will have to fund the jackpot itself since we don't want to change the deal we made with investors. We could initially fund it with 1000 CLAMs, and leave it to stake. Would the staking rewards make up for the payouts it makes? Staking pays out 0.2% per day, and we expect 5 jackpot wins per day. So long as the sum of the stakes of the 5 winning bets is less than 0.2 CLAMs, the pot will increase that day. That's probably usually going to be the case.

Thoughts? Suggestions? How would a well thought out jackpot system work? Is the proposed scheme worth implementing? Are the proposed prizes too small to bother with?

[Cyrax89721]

I can't really think of anything else that you haven't just mentioned.  I did like PD's old jackpot system of 'Roll a 77.77 and automatically win 10x your bet, regardless of wager"