Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game

[RationalSpeculator]

This is the problem with people who win money without having earned it.  They can't fucking handle the responsibility, don't feel entitled to it, and ultimately implode.

Wauw, what a sore losers here. Ofcourse he earned those winnings. He took the chance, risked losing and won.

Allover, congratulations. 

[1713244742]

1713244742

[Rampion]

I must give it to him though, his strategy is good. Variance is a bitch sweet if you know to stop while ahead. Even if that is temporary, you stand out above most gamblers. And playing with such large amount of money you have to dare. I mean he gambles $10k/$50k with a click. Loses/wins $200k in a few seconds. And is likely willing to lose 1 million USD on JD. Unless he is a billionaire, that's serious money for him too.

Always remember, the house can be down with not 5% like yesterday but 80% according to simulations done here before. That is if his roll is as big as the house (40k btc) which it may.

I'm wondering what if his roll is 'only' 10k btc, 4 times less than house? Does that mean maximum drawdown in simulation would not be -80% for house, but also 4 times less: -20% for house?

I agree he dares, he just needs to dare to play more.

[MikkisJ]

But, as an investor, I have to divest and withdraw, I'm afraid you are sort of hating me now, which is dangerous for further communication.

Dooglus never even suggested he would take your bitcoins. Even if he doesn't like it when you win a lot, you're still just a gambler who uses JD, and I don't think anyone is going to stop you or ban you from JD or steal your coins. So stop suggesting such bullshit.

[wolverine.ks]

doog, bet announcements in the chat are super spam. any chance of getting those blocked?

any work being done on separate chats?

[romerun]

well, is it possible to make it more random, coz nakowa is able to see pretty good patterns in the current randomness, so far.. Also it scares the shit out of me (and most investors I guess) seeing 100+ a bet.

[Rannasha]

well, is it possible to make it more random, coz nakowa is able to see pretty good patterns in the current randomness, so far.. Also it scares the shit out of me (and most investors I guess) seeing 100+ a bet.

It already is random. Nakowa is lucky.

[elm]

This is the problem with people who win money without having earned it.  They can't fucking handle the responsibility, don't feel entitled to it, and ultimately implode.

Wauw, what a sore losers here. Ofcourse he earned those winnings. He took the chance, risked losing and won.

Allover, congratulations. 

AGREE

[jonitas]

@themagicdrake: Thanks for the charts! Shows nicely how very very lucky he was.

[Hfleer]

Wow, site profit is down a lot.  Feel bad for the investors.

[Hfleer]

doog, bet announcements in the chat are super spam. any chance of getting those blocked?

I agree I couldn't see what others were saying/scroll up because of the wall of spam announcements at times.

[bitme]

Congratulations to Nakowa.
As investor to the site i hope You'll come back soon;)

[molecular]

Nakowa, quit now! Never turn back. Buy cocaine some weed and hookers (if legal in your jurisdiction) and be happy about your winnings.

[shawshankinmate37927]

Dooglus, is there any chance you can generate a list of the JD all-time top 10 winners?

[andrew12]

Dooglus, is there any chance you can generate a list of the JD all-time top 10 winners?

It's not exactly for all of time, but it's got most of the data you're probably looking for (near the bottom) - https://just-dice.com/biggest.txt

[Oleander]

The Kelly Criterion derives from a model that differs from JD's real situation in a couple of important ways.

First, in the Kelly model, the player with the edge controls the betting.  Since he has an edge, he keeps on betting.  In contrast, with JD the house has the edge but must wait passively for the whales to bet.  Since the whales don't have an edge, they can and should stop when they're ahead.

Second, the Kelly model runs on "bet time", where the unit of time is one bet.  The Kelly Criterion maximizes the return over the number of bets.  In contrast, JD runs on "calendar time".  Investors count their return in percent per day or month or year, and count their opportunity cost the same way.

Because of these differences, it does not follow that setting the maximum bet based on the Kelly Criterion will maximize JD's return in calendar time. 

The maximum bet policy has been questioned before, and it's always been answered by an appeal to the Kelly Criterion, or to simulations based on the Kelly model.  I'm suggesting that the model doesn't match the reality, so it's time for a fresh look.

[mechs]

The Kelly Criterion derives from a model that differs from JD's real situation in a couple of important ways.

First, in the Kelly model, the player with the edge controls the betting.  Since he has an edge, he keeps on betting.  In contrast, with JD the house has the edge but must wait passively for the whales to bet.  Since the whales don't have an edge, they can and should stop when they're ahead.

Second, the Kelly model runs on "bet time", where the unit of time is one bet.  The Kelly Criterion maximizes the return over the number of bets.  In contrast, JD runs on "calendar time".  Investors count their return in percent per day or month or year, and count their opportunity cost the same way.

Because of these differences, it does not follow that setting the maximum bet based on the Kelly Criterion will maximize JD's return in calendar time. 

The maximum bet policy has been questioned before, and it's always been answered by an appeal to the Kelly Criterion, or to simulations based on the Kelly model.  I'm suggesting that the model doesn't match the reality, so it's time for a fresh look.

The issue that there is an extemely lopsided distribution to bet sizes making the variance massive.
99% of bets under 1 BTC
0.99% if bets under 10 BTC
Only 0.01% of bets over 10 BTC, and many of those are actually over 100 BTC

I think Kelly holds when all bets are about equal sizes (or within a stanard differential are 2).  However, this is not the scenario as it plays out on J-D since there only exists 1 or 2 players who can take advantage of the max bet and for the rest a max bet of 100BTC would be enough for thr other 99.99% of players

[mechs]

I think an even bigger issue is it is a Saturday night, the biggest normal time for players to gamble and the site has been down for hours with no word from Doog.  My guess is he is out and unaware.  This DDoS issue is quite out of control.

[shawshankinmate37927]

I think an even bigger issue is it is a Saturday night, the biggest normal time for players to gamble and the site has been down for hours with no word from Doog.  My guess is he is out and unaware.  This DDoS issue is quite out of control.

I'm logged onto JD with no issues right now.

[infested999]

I think an even bigger issue is it is a Saturday night, the biggest normal time for players to gamble and the site has been down for hours with no word from Doog.  My guess is he is out and unaware.  This DDoS issue is quite out of control.

I'm logged onto JD with no issues right now.

What IP?

Code:

ping just-dice.com

[shawshankinmate37927]

I think an even bigger issue is it is a Saturday night, the biggest normal time for players to gamble and the site has been down for hours with no word from Doog.  My guess is he is out and unaware.  This DDoS issue is quite out of control.

I'm logged onto JD with no issues right now.

What IP?

Code:

ping just-dice.com

Not sure how to get the IP address, I'm on an iPad.  Probably doesn't help you, but the URL is:
https://just-dice.com/