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Author Topic: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game  (Read 433270 times)
Rampion
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September 25, 2013, 03:58:21 PM
 #2261

Agreed. Max bet at 1% was the only real chance of Nakowa going busto when he starts with his 300BTC bets. I'd rather lose my whole investment because of an incredible (and very unlikely) strike of bad luck, than just taking down the max bet which practically means that we won't be recovering our losses for months...

You are forgetting a very important benefit of lowering the max bet. With a lower max bet he will not be able to win as much by cheating before it statistically becomes obvious that he is. Depending on how large you currently think the chances of him cheating is, it might actually be +EV to let him continue with a 0.25% max bet...

I've watched Nakowa gambling, and I'm obviously not 100% sure that he is not cheating, but I'm willing to bet my whole investment (which anyhow I can afford to lose) on the fact the he is NOT cheating, and thus I'd let him play with max profit 1% of the bankroll until he eventually go busto with his 300BTC bets.

In fact, today I've watched him for at least 2 hours in a row. He is losing big time at the moment. I have the impression that if the max profit would not have been lowered, today he would be down many thousands and not just a few hundreds. I have the impression he would have started to push the max bet to recover his losses, which he is actually doing with 60BTC and 70BTC bets (the actual max profit), which eventually would have led him to lose a lot more. Of course this is wild speculation and impossible to know, but given the fact that nakowa has already won +15k coins from the site when the max bet was 4 times higher, lowering the max bet in my opinion is something that plays in his favor, because he won't be able to lose everything as easily as he won it - in fact it will be 4 times harder for him to lose everything, than it was to win it in the first place.

That's how I see it...
He is down 1000 BTC, he would bet that amount in 5 second before.  The change has reduced variance.

Sure, but our only chance to quickly recoup the 25% losses Nakowa inflicted to us in just a few days was precisely variance, and lowering the max profit to 0.25% just killed that chance. I see this matter very coldly: nakowa is either

a) cheating, or
b) a degenerate gambler that won't stop until he loses everything.

After having analyzed both the character and his "gambling style", I see no evidence whatsoever for a), and anyhow if he is cheating lowering max bet won't help at all. On the contrary, I've seen a LOT of evidence for b), both in what he writes ("I'm not a gambler", "I spot patterns", "it's difficult to quit when you always win", etc.) and in how he plays, and thus I'd coldly and rationally prefer to let math and gambling addiction do their thing until the law of big numbers takes us where we should be.

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mechs
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September 25, 2013, 04:00:34 PM
 #2262

Agreed. Max bet at 1% was the only real chance of Nakowa going busto when he starts with his 300BTC bets. I'd rather lose my whole investment because of an incredible (and very unlikely) strike of bad luck, than just taking down the max bet which practically means that we won't be recovering our losses for months...

You are forgetting a very important benefit of lowering the max bet. With a lower max bet he will not be able to win as much by cheating before it statistically becomes obvious that he is. Depending on how large you currently think the chances of him cheating is, it might actually be +EV to let him continue with a 0.25% max bet...

I've watched Nakowa gambling, and I'm obviously not 100% sure that he is not cheating, but I'm willing to bet my whole investment (which anyhow I can afford to lose) on the fact the he is NOT cheating, and thus I'd let him play with max profit 1% of the bankroll until he eventually go busto with his 300BTC bets.

In fact, today I've watched him for at least 2 hours in a row. He is losing big time at the moment. I have the impression that if the max profit would not have been lowered, today he would be down many thousands and not just a few hundreds. I have the impression he would have started to push the max bet to recover his losses, which he is actually doing with 60BTC and 70BTC bets (the actual max profit), which eventually would have led him to lose a lot more. Of course this is wild speculation and impossible to know, but given the fact that nakowa has already won +15k coins from the site when the max bet was 4 times higher, lowering the max bet in my opinion is something that plays in his favor, because he won't be able to lose everything as easily as he won it - in fact it will be 4 times harder for him to lose everything, than it was to win it in the first place.

That's how I see it...
He is down 1000 BTC, he would bet that amount in 5 second before.  The change has reduced variance.

Sure, but our only chance to quickly recoup the 25% losses Nakowa inflicted to us in just a few days was precisely variance, and lowering the max profit to 0.25% just killed that chance. I see this matter very coldly: nakowa is either

a) cheating, or
b) a degenerate gambler that won't stop until he loses everything.

After having analyzed both the character and his "gambling style", I see no evidence whatsoever for a), and anyhow if he is cheating lowering max bet won't help at all. On the contrary, I've seen a LOT of evidence for b), both in what he writes ("I'm not a gambler", "I spot patterns", "it's difficult to quit when you always win", etc.) and in how he plays, and thus I'd coldly and rationally prefer to let math and gambling addiction do their thing until the law of big numbers takes us where we should be.

Unfortunately math has been unkind to J-D - I think we should give up the idea of getting it all back quickly.  We need less variance so the #s can eventually work in J-D's favor over the long-term without the bankroll being devestated and investors fleeing due to short-term variance.
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September 25, 2013, 04:02:03 PM
 #2263

Agreed. Max bet at 1% was the only real chance of Nakowa going busto when he starts with his 300BTC bets. I'd rather lose my whole investment because of an incredible (and very unlikely) strike of bad luck, than just taking down the max bet which practically means that we won't be recovering our losses for months...

You are forgetting a very important benefit of lowering the max bet. With a lower max bet he will not be able to win as much by cheating before it statistically becomes obvious that he is. Depending on how large you currently think the chances of him cheating is, it might actually be +EV to let him continue with a 0.25% max bet...

I've watched Nakowa gambling, and I'm obviously not 100% sure that he is not cheating, but I'm willing to bet my whole investment (which anyhow I can afford to lose) on the fact the he is NOT cheating, and thus I'd let him play with max profit 1% of the bankroll until he eventually go busto with his 300BTC bets.

In fact, today I've watched him for at least 2 hours in a row. He is losing big time at the moment. I have the impression that if the max profit would not have been lowered, today he would be down many thousands and not just a few hundreds. I have the impression he would have started to push the max bet to recover his losses, which he is actually doing with 60BTC and 70BTC bets (the actual max profit), which eventually would have led him to lose a lot more. Of course this is wild speculation and impossible to know, but given the fact that nakowa has already won +15k coins from the site when the max bet was 4 times higher, lowering the max bet in my opinion is something that plays in his favor, because he won't be able to lose everything as easily as he won it - in fact it will be 4 times harder for him to lose everything, than it was to win it in the first place.

That's how I see it...

Exactly, the chances to get back to at least 0 are very slim now, it was a wrong time to make such a change.
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September 25, 2013, 04:02:28 PM
 #2264

Why not raise max bet back to 1%, and then change the house edge to 1.5%?

The lower bet sizes are more likely to make nakowa bored and NEVER COME BACK.

If the edge is 1.5%, I bet he will still play!  It's the size of the bet hes making that gives him the rush, the house edge isn't much of a big deal.
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September 25, 2013, 04:04:00 PM
 #2265

20:29:20 (153338) <percent> -976. OK I surrender.

One minute later there's a pending deposit of 1000 BTC to the account.

He never surrenders.

Dooglus, seriously, you need outside help on this. I offered to help you for just 40 BTC and your site just lost 100x that in literally 2 days. I believe I have shown you there is a problem by analyzing the bet about and profit amount. The error is now even greater than before. Look, if your profit is not approaching 1% but approaching zero, there is a problem and I can give you a nice pep talk which will set you straight. But you need to understand what it's value is so I am increasing the price to 100 BTC. I don't even care if you hire someone else. I suggest you talk to a casino owner if you don't talk to me, and offer him more than I am asking for to help you out with your game's design. I hope you don't look down on me for making this offer as some others have. You have a lot of chances here because you are the first "good" dice site. Here's hoping I am wrong and your site approaches 1% over the next 2 million bet. But if it doesn't, please consider talking to me as an alternative to shutting the site down?
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September 25, 2013, 04:09:17 PM
 #2266

I think today Nakowa lost 1,820BTC with small bets (max bet 70BTC). I wonder what would have been the result if the max bet was not lowered...

EDIT: Nakowa just sent 1,000BTC to an unused address, it might well be J-D... We will know as soon as it hits the first confirmation.

As I've said: a degenerate gambler, we just need math do its thing. There's no point in chickening out.

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September 25, 2013, 04:11:50 PM
 #2267

I think Nakowa just lost 1,820BTC with small bets (max bet 70BTC). I wonder what would have been the result if the max bet was not lowered...

EDIT: Nakowa just sent 1,000BTC to an unused address, it might very well be J-D... We will know as soon as it hits the first confirmation.

As I've said: a degenerate gambler, we just need math do its thing. There's no point in chickening out.

On that note I would like to add that i think lowering the max bet in a way it is now, is a mistake based in emotion. Dooglus, I hope you'll reconsider.

integrity42
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September 25, 2013, 04:13:59 PM
 #2268

18:09:34 (153338) <percent> I HAVE ONE LAST TRY. AND I THINK I WILL NOT WIN HERE ANYMORE.

Well there you have it folks. The whale will quit now because the max bet is too low and he thinks he can't 'win' anymore.

Now investors only have to wait ages to try and recover their losses.

Congratulations.
nicolaennio
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September 25, 2013, 04:17:04 PM
 #2269

I think today Nakowa lost 1,820BTC with small bets (max bet 70BTC). I wonder what would have been the result if the max bet was not lowered...

EDIT: Nakowa just sent 1,000BTC to an unused address, it might well be J-D... We will know as soon as it hits the first confirmation.

As I've said: a degenerate gambler, we just need math do its thing. There's no point in chickening out.

Even though I agree on many points you say, I believe Kelly criterion is too much an aggressive way to play against a massive gambler. Have you run some simulations? I did and the plots of the earnings are scary (some of them are nice too). Suppose that we keep playing with this maxbet and the bankroll still shrinks, then a lot of people will be very scared and will quit the website thinking it is scam or else, then what do we do, we play 100B bankroll? Then we really will wait a lot

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            ██████               1% House Edge
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September 25, 2013, 04:21:02 PM
 #2270

I think that if there was a dynamic delay should be put in place after winning bets.  The delay would be increased as it approaches the max profit, but have the standard delay after a losing bet.  This would keep the site from going into a negative state in a short amount of time like what happens.  The sites growth is designed to increase at a rather low rate so when a whale comes in and makes a large number of large bets in a short amount of time and then pulls out when they are ahead it takes the site a very long time to recoup from that.  If there was a delay put in place after large winning bets it would decrease the amount of those bets that would be placed.  

1M4QPepS1QZwTSFhMMtMYZ8fXDxRkkWhC6
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September 25, 2013, 04:22:08 PM
 #2271

I think today Nakowa lost 1,820BTC with small bets (max bet 70BTC). I wonder what would have been the result if the max bet was not lowered...

EDIT: Nakowa just sent 1,000BTC to an unused address, it might well be J-D... We will know as soon as it hits the first confirmation.

As I've said: a degenerate gambler, we just need math do its thing. There's no point in chickening out.

Even though I agree on many points you say, I believe Kelly criterion is too much an aggressive way to play against a massive gambler. Have you run some simulations? I did and the plots of the earnings are scary (some of them are nice too). Suppose that we keep playing with this maxbet and the bankroll still shrinks, then a lot of people will be very scared and will quit the website thinking it is scam or else, then what do we do, we play 100B bankroll? Then we really will wait a lot

What I really cannot understand is how people invests in a gambling site without realizing what 1% house edge + 1% max profit means. Returns will wildly fluctuate because of variance if whales push the max bet, that was clear from the very first moment - take it or leave it. People should UNDERSTAND in what they invest in, if they do not they are just being retarded.

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September 25, 2013, 04:24:49 PM
 #2272

Considering he lost 3k now, the site would have been up 7k again if max bet wasn't changed (3k*4=12k, so +7k starting from -5k). Bad timing ^^'
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September 25, 2013, 04:29:38 PM
 #2273

18:09:34 (153338) <percent> I HAVE ONE LAST TRY. AND I THINK I WILL NOT WIN HERE ANYMORE.

Well there you have it folks. The whale will quit now because the max bet is too low and he thinks he can't 'win' anymore.

Now investors only have to wait ages to try and recover their losses.

Congratulations.


Given Nakowa's words worth, I wouldn't be so sure about that.
Moreover I believe that the maxbet limit is still open to discussion.

If i was in charge, I would've left max bet @1%, but that's obviously not the case.

I think variable edge is a very bad idea. It will only serve confusion and bad advertising. You've set a new standard with 1%... going backward is not a good idea.

If you want to give up 1% max bet, I advise to at least allow 100-150 amounts.
Hundreds are psychological spots, and give an adrenaline rush. 100s will also provide the "Whoooaaa !" effect on spectators.

I bet there's an increase in JD frequentation since the beginning of Nakowa's gambling and media coverage.
Cursious spectators come to see the whale, and that is also something good !
Rampion
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September 25, 2013, 04:31:05 PM
 #2274

Considering he lost 3k now, the site would have been up 7k again if max bet wasn't changed (3k*4=12k, so +7k starting from -5k). Bad timing ^^'

Math never lies - on the contrary, decisions based on emotions are -EV. Nakowa is a delusional gambling addict who believes he found a "system" to "spot patterns", therefore I will never understand why we decided to lower the max profit precisely when he was in the middle of a session. That sucks, from one side he might feel cheated and he might stop playing JD because of that, and IMO the rational thing to do would have been to let him keep playing as he used to. And BTW, he is used to win, and I'm quite sure that as soon as he started losing BIG he would have started to take very bad decisions based on emotions. Now we "protected" him by lowering the maximum amount he can lose in a single bet.

mechs
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September 25, 2013, 04:31:24 PM
 #2275

18:09:34 (153338) <percent> I HAVE ONE LAST TRY. AND I THINK I WILL NOT WIN HERE ANYMORE.

Well there you have it folks. The whale will quit now because the max bet is too low and he thinks he can't 'win' anymore.

Now investors only have to wait ages to try and recover their losses.

Congratulations.


Given Nakowa's words worth, I wouldn't be so sure about that.
Moreover I believe that the maxbet limit is still open to discussion.

If i was in charge, I would've left max bet @1%, but that's obviously not the case.

I think variable edge is a very bad idea. It will only serve confusion and bad advertising. You've set a new standard with 1%... going backward is not a good idea.

If you want to give up 1% max bet, I advise to at least allow 100-150 amounts.
Hundred is a psychological cliff, and gives an adrenaline rush. 100s will also provide the "Whoooaaa !" effect on spectators.

I bet there's an increase in JD frequentation since the beginning of Nakowa's gambling and media coverage.
Cursious spectators come to see the whale, and that is also something good !

If they speculate but do not bet, it is just free entertainment
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September 25, 2013, 04:32:14 PM
 #2276

Dooglus,

First, I really like what you have done with just-dice and you seem like a very honest guy which is the reason I'm invested and I would not be invested in ANY of the other Bitcoin casinos out there but:

As an investor I have to say I am a little bit disappointed you didn't try to consult with us before lowering the max limit seeing how much we are impacted. Because it's going to take us much longer now to make up for our losses. It might be impossible for some if the BTC/USD price goes up..

That said, I also think that 1% was way too high and it should have been 0.5% max and it was a mistake. But.. changing it now, you took away our chance to make up for our loss quickly and you give an incentive to new people or people who divested to get back in as investors thus lowering our profits.

I don't think Nakowa will play again unless we go back to 1% which considering is current bankroll might be too risky for us. So you should freeze out any new investors/new investments for a while at least till the bank goes back in green. Also I would be against the idea of banning people like Nakowa from just-dice. We can't ban people for being lucky!
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September 25, 2013, 04:33:01 PM
 #2277

So, if he comes back from his current loss and takes the site profit further into the negative, you all will still be complaining about max profit being too low, right?
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September 25, 2013, 04:33:06 PM
 #2278

<percent> banker: I was beaten already. REMEMBER: the rules changed during the course of my play. I HAVE NO INCENTIVE TO PLAY MORE IN THE FUTURE.

Congratulations.  The whale is walking away with investor profits.  As far as I know casino's in the real world do everything they can to keep whales playing
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September 25, 2013, 04:33:55 PM
 #2279

Considering he lost 3k now, the site would have been up 7k again if max bet wasn't changed (3k*4=12k, so +7k starting from -5k). Bad timing ^^'

Math never lies - on the contrary, decisions based on emotions are -EV. Nakowa is a delusional gambling addict who believes he found a "system" to "spot patterns", therefore I will never understand why we decided to lower the max profit precisely when he was in the middle of a session. That sucks, from one side he might feel cheated and he might stop playing JD because that, and IMO the rational thing to do would have been to let him keep playing as he used to. And BTW, he is used to win, and I'm quite sure that as soon as he started losing BIG he would have started to take very bad decisions based on emotions. Now we "protected" him by lowering the maximum amount he can lose in a single bet.

I forced myself to stay invested the whole time because divesting while being down wold have meant staying behind with certainty. Trust the math and wait.
I would be very disappointed if the new rules now make the whale swim away.
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September 25, 2013, 04:34:02 PM
 #2280

Considering he lost 3k now, the site would have been up 7k again if max bet wasn't changed (3k*4=12k, so +7k starting from -5k). Bad timing ^^'

Math never lies - on the contrary, decisions based on emotions are -EV. Nakowa is a delusional gambling addict who believes he found a "system" to "spot patterns", therefore I will never understand why we decided to lower the max profit precisely when he was in the middle of a session. That sucks, from one side he might feel cheated and he might stop playing JD because that, and IMO the rational thing to do would have been to let him keep playing as he used to. And BTW, he is used to win, and I'm quite sure that as soon as he started losing BIG he would have started to take very bad decisions based on emotions. Now we "protected" him by lowering the maximum amount he can lose in a single bet.
We protected the whale and the investors, it is a decision which only decreases variance but the odds unchanged.  He can bet with a bot 3 bets per second - so 225 BTC per bet.  Manually he can do 75BTC per second easily.  All that was reduced is variance until a higher edge can be put into effect for very large bets.  
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