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Author Topic: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game  (Read 433258 times)
mechs
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September 25, 2013, 04:34:48 PM
 #2281

Considering he lost 3k now, the site would have been up 7k again if max bet wasn't changed (3k*4=12k, so +7k starting from -5k). Bad timing ^^'

Math never lies - on the contrary, decisions based on emotions are -EV. Nakowa is a delusional gambling addict who believes he found a "system" to "spot patterns", therefore I will never understand why we decided to lower the max profit precisely when he was in the middle of a session. That sucks, from one side he might feel cheated and he might stop playing JD because that, and IMO the rational thing to do would have been to let him keep playing as he used to. And BTW, he is used to win, and I'm quite sure that as soon as he started losing BIG he would have started to take very bad decisions based on emotions. Now we "protected" him by lowering the maximum amount he can lose in a single bet.

I forced myself to stay invested the whole time because divesting while being down wold have meant staying behind with certainty. Trust the math and wait.
I would be very disappointed if the new rules now make the whale swim away.
You cannot run the site based on keeping one player.  There is no future to the site then. 
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Rampion
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September 25, 2013, 04:35:00 PM
 #2282

Another fact that IMO proves that he is not cheating and that he just got lucky: he is down at least 1,820BTC today (those are the fresh funds he sent to the site), and he just sent 1,000BTC more. He wrote bitter words on the chat, and his betting pattern changed: in this session he is chickening out, and his smaller bet is just 5BTC, when in previous sessions today it used to be 10BTC. In my book that means that he is kinda scared and took a psychological hit, which ultimately benefits the house, which has a 1% edge and no emotions whatsoever.

EDIT: in the last session his lowest bet is 3BTC... He's hit psychologically... And we screwed over lowering max. profit.

cbhelp
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September 25, 2013, 04:35:58 PM
 #2283

Changing the rules mid game is unethical to say the least.  I don't blame him for not coming back.

 ✰ Just Sit Back And Let The Good Times Roll | PrimeDice.com | The New Way To Roll (https://PrimeDice.com) *Thread* (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=208986.0)
mechs
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September 25, 2013, 04:36:35 PM
 #2284

Dooglus,

First, I really like what you have done with just-dice and you seem like a very honest guy which is the reason I'm invested and I would not be invested in ANY of the other Bitcoin casinos out there but:

As an investor I have to say I am a little bit disappointed you didn't try to consult with us before lowering the max limit seeing how much we are impacted. Because it's going to take us much longer now to make up for our losses. It might be impossible for some if the BTC/USD price goes up..

That said, I also think that 1% was way too high and it should have been 0.5% max and it was a mistake. But.. changing it now, you took away our chance to make up for our loss quickly and you give an incentive to new people or people who divested to get back in as investors thus lowering our profits.

I don't think Nakowa will play again unless we go back to 1% which considering is current bankroll might be too risky for us. So you should freeze out any new investors/new investments for a while at least till the bank goes back in green. Also I would be against the idea of banning people like Nakowa from just-dice. We can't ban people for being lucky!
I agree with most of this.  But I am being selfish since I have big losses and hate being diluted in my investment now that the parameters finally being adjusted to reduce variance. Feels like should be some reward for loyalty of staying invested through the last week.
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September 25, 2013, 04:36:52 PM
 #2285

<percent> banker: I was beaten already. REMEMBER: the rules changed during the course of my play. I HAVE NO INCENTIVE TO PLAY MORE IN THE FUTURE.

Congratulations.  The whale is walking away with investor profits.  As far as I know casino's in the real world do everything they can to keep whales playing

Indeed. Changing max profit in the middle of the session of the BEST customer we have (yes: Nakowa is our BEST customer, even if he is way up ATM) was a stupid move indeed. As I wrote a few posts back, its obvious he would have felt cheated, which is not good at all.

Again: guys, just let math do its thing...
 

integrity42
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September 25, 2013, 04:38:00 PM
 #2286

18:36:09 (153338) <percent> I'm DONE. pulling back 2976 coins. NEW RULES KILLED ME.


UTTERY STUPIDITY  TO CHASE THE WHALE AWAY.

WE WOULD HAVE BEEN +10,000 TODAY.
mechs
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September 25, 2013, 04:38:07 PM
 #2287

<percent> banker: I was beaten already. REMEMBER: the rules changed during the course of my play. I HAVE NO INCENTIVE TO PLAY MORE IN THE FUTURE.

Congratulations.  The whale is walking away with investor profits.  As far as I know casino's in the real world do everything they can to keep whales playing

Indeed. Changing max profit in the middle of the session of the BEST customer we have (yes: Nakowa is our BEST customer, even if he is way up ATM) was a stupid move indeed. As I wrote a few posts back, its obvious he would have felt cheated, which is not good at all.

Again: guys, just let math do its thing...
 

Ideally Dooglus should have done this when he was not betting.  
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September 25, 2013, 04:38:47 PM
 #2288

Can I add my 2 cent to this discussion? I'll break it down into separate points:

(1) Don't change too much too fast, i.e. don't overreact. There is no compelling evidence of cheating yet that I have seen, so the default assumption should be to trust your methods that have been show to be trustworthy in the past.

(2) re: how to implement higher house edge. Why not introduce a really simple 2 tier system, and let it run for a while (2 weeks maybe) to see how it works. Say, 1% for bets <50, 2% for >= 50.

Also, don't be fooled by him "showing that he can win even with smaller bets" (I mean the chat log you posted) ... that might actually be him trying to convince you to get rid of the new rule, because it hurt him.

(3) I'm sorry if the following question was answered earlier (I didn't read through the entire thread, it's huge), but did anyone already calculate the probability of nakowas (and aliases) *total* profits, assuming that the RNG works as intended? It might help to put a number out there to show people investors: "see, his wins are lucky, but not *extremely* lucky".

EDIT: aaand I'm too late, it seems :P

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mechs
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September 25, 2013, 04:39:02 PM
 #2289

18:36:09 (153338) <percent> I'm DONE. pulling back 2976 coins. NEW RULES KILLED ME.


UTTERY STUPIDITY  TO CHASE THE WHALE AWAY.

WE WOULD HAVE BEEN +10,000 TODAY.
You want to invest in a site which can swing 10,000 BTC per day on a 30k bankroll? Most do not nor was that the intended design.
themagicdrake
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September 25, 2013, 04:40:48 PM
 #2290

It is my belief that he would have brought the 1% max profit down this low on his own by beating the house, before bankrupting himself first.
cowbay
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September 25, 2013, 04:42:43 PM
 #2291


This just in:

00:17:37 (153338) <percent> banker: I was beaten already. REMEMBER: the rules changed during the course of my play. I HAVE NO INCENTIVE TO PLAY MORE IN THE FUTURE.
00:36:09 (153338) <percent> I'm DONE. pulling back 2976 coins. NEW RULES KILLED ME.
00:36:54 (153338) <percent> I will NOT play here again. Smiley I cannot win anymore.
00:38:28 (153338) <percent> I WON 13k Bitcoins on just-dice.com. I was beaten today, lost 2976, otherwise I'd be up approximately 16k.

well, congratulations.

woohoo.
integrity42
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September 25, 2013, 04:42:58 PM
 #2292

Annnnnd here is the general sentiment from investors.... (except mechs, who doesn't understand math)

---------------------------

18:38:19 (Cool <Dopefish> " shame on investors", this is doogs doing, as an investor I would have voted to keep 1%

<fizzwont> BankerL as an investor, i agree, i'm pretty much done, not going to wait around for the site to die or these dust bettors to add up to something meaningful

--------------------

By lowering the max bet, we chased away our best customer.  Investors got screwed.
Oleander
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September 25, 2013, 04:44:03 PM
 #2293

I think lowering the max bet temporarily was a good move.

If this works, it undermines the conspiracy theories.  (That is, if JD profit starts rising again.)  It shows that the whale had no magical powers, and there was no mole at the data center.

Going forward:

The sliding house edge is a bad idea... it violates people's sense of fairness.

There are some very interesting ideas on letting the investors choose how much variance they're willing to accept.  These need some thinking through, but this may be the best of both worlds... it would be a way to bring the max bet back up.

I'd like to suggest a design principle: it's OK to make things more complicated for the investors, but keep things simple for the gamblers.
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September 25, 2013, 04:44:30 PM
 #2294

So he lost the whole 2,820BTC he sent to the site, plus some change he already had there.

Professor James Moriarty
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September 25, 2013, 04:44:34 PM
 #2295

 I want to have a no-limit casino to invest , like you can bet all the investment , which was like 30k or something , be able to bet 30k than. Thats more fun , casinos should take some courage to run , even if its not your money to run , even better if its like that.

I'm on the hunt for Sherlock Holmes
Ekonom
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September 25, 2013, 04:44:46 PM
 #2296

Personally as an investor I would like to support Dooglus because despite a few mistakes he has done a good job. It's easy to shit on him now that Nakowa has lost some, if Nakowa was up 3000 (as likely), you wouldn't have the same reaction. As Mechs said 1% was too high of a chance to bust vs a hi-roller high with a high bankroll.

What should be done imo is:

- Set the max limit to 0.25 or 0.33%.
- Temporarily raise the limit to to 0.75% so Nakowa can lose all his money if he wants to. As soon as it's settled, get back to 0.25 or 0.33%
- Freeze new investments for a while to give a chance to people who didn't divest to make back some.
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September 25, 2013, 04:45:31 PM
 #2297

18:36:09 (153338) <percent> I'm DONE. pulling back 2976 coins. NEW RULES KILLED ME.


UTTERY STUPIDITY  TO CHASE THE WHALE AWAY.

WE WOULD HAVE BEEN +10,000 TODAY.
You want to invest in a site which can swing 10,000 BTC per day on a 30k bankroll? Most do not nor was that the intended design.

Agreeable point, but as I said, WORST TIMING EVER xDD
cbhelp
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September 25, 2013, 04:47:18 PM
 #2298

Freezing new investments is dumb.  Just because the current investors lost money, there is NO REASON you should stop new investors.  An investment is just that, an INVESTMENT.  It can RISE OR FALL.  If you invest any lose, you dont get to bitch and say that no one else gets to invest until you win it back.  

 ✰ Just Sit Back And Let The Good Times Roll | PrimeDice.com | The New Way To Roll (https://PrimeDice.com) *Thread* (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=208986.0)
integrity42
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September 25, 2013, 04:48:42 PM
 #2299

more sentiment from regular investors:

<uvwvj> No Mechs you turned off guys like Banker, me (who plays BJ and sports) and batollei by changing the rules over night horrible marketing
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September 25, 2013, 04:48:52 PM
 #2300


I've watched Nakowa gambling, and I'm obviously not 100% sure that he is not cheating, but I'm willing to bet my whole investment (which anyhow I can afford to lose) on the fact the he is NOT cheating, and thus I'd let him play with max profit 1% of the bankroll until he eventually go busto with his 300BTC bets.


+1

And think of the publicity this is bringing to just-dice.com and bitcoin in general.  I was telling everyone about this mysterious whale's, $20k, $30k, $40k+ bets, and everyone was eating it up!  With the reduced max bet size, it's not nearly as sensational.  

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