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Author Topic: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game  (Read 434280 times)
Bugpowder
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July 14, 2013, 08:52:15 PM
 #601

After long discussion in the chat room... 1% max bet optimizes the geometric mean of the investment profit. See my monte Carlo sim on page 30. Or wikipedia Kelly criterion.

If u want less risk, invest less and rebalance often.  If you want more, you are moving to a suboptimal strategy if a whale is hammering the max.
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dooglus
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July 14, 2013, 09:27:45 PM
 #602

A Just-Dice customer is emailing me over and over asking for a refund.

Apparently he left his phone containing a funded Bitcoin wallet and a Just-Dice account in a restaurant.  Somebody found it, deposited his coins into his pre-existing Just-Dice account, and lost them.  Not all of his coins, just around 95% of them.

Now he wants a refund.

I'm wondering if any other customers have lost bets recently that were placed with stolen coins, and if they would also like a refund.

And I thought I had better check with the investors first, just to make sure they don't have any problem with me refunding bets from the bankroll when people tell me they didn't mean to bet for whatever reason...


On a serious note, am I right to tell this guy that it's not up to Just-Dice to refund his coins?  He seems pretty insistent that it's the site's fault the coins were stolen.

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Factory
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July 14, 2013, 09:31:08 PM
 #603

On a serious note, am I right to tell this guy that it's not up to Just-Dice to refund his coins?  He seems pretty insistent that it's the site's fault the coins were stolen.

You have no duty to provide a refund.

It is his fault for losing his property in the first place. While it is unfortunate- you have no responsibilities regarding the situation.
mechs
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July 14, 2013, 09:32:28 PM
 #604

If I were dishonest and had access to someone's bitcoins I would just transfer them to my own wallet.  I would not deposit them in the same owner's just-dice account (and how did he login without pwd?) and gamble with it.  Pretty unrealistic.

I think the site would only be responsible for loses due to a blatant security hole in the login process.  If they choose not to use google authorization that is on them.
Bugpowder
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July 14, 2013, 09:35:26 PM
 #605

A Just-Dice customer is emailing me over and over asking for a refund.

Apparently he left his phone containing a funded Bitcoin wallet and a Just-Dice account in a restaurant.  Somebody found it, deposited his coins into his pre-existing Just-Dice account, and lost them.  Not all of his coins, just around 95% of them.

Now he wants a refund.

I'm wondering if any other customers have lost bets recently that were placed with stolen coins, and if they would also like a refund.

And I thought I had better check with the investors first, just to make sure they don't have any problem with me refunding bets from the bankroll when people tell me they didn't mean to bet for whatever reason...


On a serious note, am I right to tell this guy that it's not up to Just-Dice to refund his coins?  He seems pretty insistent that it's the site's fault the coins were stolen.

99.9% of people that find phones do not know how to do that. Implausible at best.
themagicdrake
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July 14, 2013, 09:37:08 PM
 #606

A Just-Dice customer is emailing me over and over asking for a refund.

Apparently he left his phone containing a funded Bitcoin wallet and a Just-Dice account in a restaurant.  Somebody found it, deposited his coins into his pre-existing Just-Dice account, and lost them.  Not all of his coins, just around 95% of them.

Now he wants a refund.

I'm wondering if any other customers have lost bets recently that were placed with stolen coins, and if they would also like a refund.

And I thought I had better check with the investors first, just to make sure they don't have any problem with me refunding bets from the bankroll when people tell me they didn't mean to bet for whatever reason...


On a serious note, am I right to tell this guy that it's not up to Just-Dice to refund his coins?  He seems pretty insistent that it's the site's fault the coins were stolen.

How big of a fish are we talking here?
wolverine.ks
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July 14, 2013, 09:38:02 PM
 #607

this
99.9% of people that find phones do not know how to do that. Implausible at best.
and this
If they choose not to use google authorization that is on them.

how do you know who are investors though?
pgbit
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July 14, 2013, 09:40:04 PM
 #608

On a serious note, am I right to tell this guy that it's not up to Just-Dice to refund his coins?  He seems pretty insistent that it's the site's fault the coins were stolen.

You have no duty to provide a refund.

It is his fault for losing his property in the first place. While it is unfortunate- you have no responsibilities regarding the situation.
Agreed ^. It does highlight the 'weak link' of 2FA: your phone. Not a place to store passwords, and not good to login to services with 2FA on the same phone as authenticator app, as login may persist for a period.
HurtK
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July 14, 2013, 09:49:17 PM
 #609

unless it was fault on JD side, he should not be refunded
wolverine.ks
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July 14, 2013, 09:49:48 PM
 #610

why didnt their phone have a password to even use it?
wolverine.ks
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July 14, 2013, 09:51:15 PM
 #611

on a different note...

after reviewing bugpowders monte carlo sim on pg 30, and the wikipedia page about kelly betting strategy,

it seems that what might satisfy some investors is an investor determined rate of max bet exposure.

1% max bet is the optimal rate for long term, but does allow for greater possibility of bigger swings. .1% appears to be less than optimal, but reduces possibility of swings greatly.

if there were a way to create 2 different bankrolls for investors to choose from, (a JD and a JD jr. so to speak) that would allow people to include their time preference when choosing how to invest in JD.
Jonny Heggheim
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July 14, 2013, 09:53:31 PM
 #612

Apparently he left his phone containing a funded Bitcoin wallet and a Just-Dice account in a restaurant.  Somebody found it, deposited his coins into his pre-existing Just-Dice account, and lost them.  Not all of his coins, just around 95% of them.

Now he wants a refund.
How do you know that this is true? And what would happen if the coins were winning? Would the profit be his property?
dooglus
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July 14, 2013, 10:19:20 PM
 #613

99.9% of people that find phones do not know how to do that. Implausible at best.

He was in the restaurant to do a Bitcoin deal.  So the guy at the same table as him likely knew how to do it.

I think that's where I'd start my investigation if I was him.

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pgbit
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July 14, 2013, 10:21:56 PM
 #614

99.9% of people that find phones do not know how to do that. Implausible at best.

He was in the restaurant to do a Bitcoin deal.  So the guy at the same table as him likely knew how to do it.

I think that's where I'd start my investigation if I was him.
Wait up. Can we catch the thief? What's the btc address sent from and does the receiving address match any known transaction thread post?
dooglus
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July 14, 2013, 10:23:48 PM
 #615

if there were a way to create 2 different bankrolls for investors to choose from, (a JD and a JD jr. so to speak) that would allow people to include their time preference when choosing how to invest in JD.

The only problem I have with this is in the complexity of implementation.

Currently I calculate everyone's percentage share of the bankroll each time anyone invests or divests.  I don't have to do anything after each bet.  If you have 50% of the bankroll before a bet, you still have 50% of the bankroll after the bet.  The bankroll itself grows and shrinks, but the percentages are fixed.

If we have multiple investment levels, then that is no longer true.  The 1%ers share goes up on each winning bet and down on each losing bet, relative to the 0.1%ers.  That makes for a whole lot of extra calculations (per bet, ie. 20 times per second, rather than per-(in/di)vest, ie. 1 per several minutes).

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dooglus
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July 14, 2013, 10:25:18 PM
 #616

Wait up. Can we catch the thief? What's the btc address sent from and does the receiving address match any known transaction thread post?

As I understand it, the coins were sent from the victim's wallet to the victim's JD account.

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wolverine.ks
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July 14, 2013, 10:26:10 PM
 #617

if there were a way to create 2 different bankrolls for investors to choose from, (a JD and a JD jr. so to speak) that would allow people to include their time preference when choosing how to invest in JD.

The only problem I have with this is in the complexity of implementation.

Currently I calculate everyone's percentage share of the bankroll each time anyone invests or divests.  I don't have to do anything after each bet.  If you have 50% of the bankroll before a bet, you still have 50% of the bankroll after the bet.  The bankroll itself grows and shrinks, but the percentages are fixed.

If we have multiple investment levels, then that is no longer true.  The 1%ers share goes up on each winning bet and down on each losing bet, relative to the 0.1%ers.  That makes for a whole lot of extra calculations (per bet, ie. 20 times per second, rather than per-(in/di)vest, ie. 1 per several minutes).

could you have different interfaces for the bettors, that access completely different bankrolls that are not mixed together?
dooglus
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July 14, 2013, 10:29:57 PM
 #618

could you have different interfaces for the bettors, that access completely different bankrolls that are not mixed together?

I could make two completely separate sites, and the players could decide whether they wanted to play against the men or the boys...  But who would want to play on the site with the 10 times smaller max bet?

I'm assuming the bankrolls need to be combined to offer a single combined max bet to the players.

It's possible to treat the two bankrolls as separate and rebalance what percentage of the whole bankroll is owned by each sub-bankroll after each roll.  Then the percentages within each of the two sub-rolls is constant.  And that's the solution I will implement if/when I do so.

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mechs
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July 14, 2013, 10:43:54 PM
 #619

Dooglus, maybe you can explain why you have decided on the 1% max profit number exactly.  How about a system where the max profit % increases at the total bankroll of the site increases up to a maximum of 1%.  While the BR is relatively small (as it is now) that would lessen the price swings and risk from variance to the individual investors.  As the BR grows and the the investor risk decreases that way, then the max payout can increase as well.

As an example:
Use the formula Max Profit = Bank Roll/100,000 to calculate the max profit percentage with 0.1% being the minimum (at Bank Roll 10,000) and 1% being the maximum (at Bank Roll 100,000)

At a Bank Roll of 10,000 BTC or less, the max profit will be 0.1%.  At a Bank Roll of 50,000, the max profit will be 0.5% and a Bank Roll of 100,000 BTC or more the max profit will be 1%. 


This strikes me as an easy solution to implement - the variance issue will go away as the Bank Roll grows but while the BR is relatively small, this would decrease the wild swings.  Seems like a simpler and more dynamic solution than two separate Bank Rolls.
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July 14, 2013, 11:14:13 PM
 #620

Dooglus, maybe you can explain why you have decided on the 1% max profit number exactly.  How about a system where the max profit % increases at the total bankroll of the site increases up to a maximum of 1%.  While the BR is relatively small (as it is now) that would lessen the price swings and risk from variance to the individual investors.  As the BR grows and the the investor risk decreases that way, then the max payout can increase as well.

As an example:
Use the formula Max Profit = Bank Roll/100,000 to calculate the max profit percentage with 0.1% being the minimum (at Bank Roll 10,000) and 1% being the maximum (at Bank Roll 100,000)

At a Bank Roll of 10,000 BTC or less, the max profit will be 0.1%.  At a Bank Roll of 50,000, the max profit will be 0.5% and a Bank Roll of 100,000 BTC or more the max profit will be 1%. 


This strikes me as an easy solution to implement - the variance issue will go away as the Bank Roll grows but while the BR is relatively small, this would decrease the wild swings.  Seems like a simpler and more dynamic solution than two separate Bank Rolls.


WHat is that supposed to address?

If I have 100 BTC in the BR then my variance is pretty much the same for any risk % whether the total BR is 1K BTC or 1 million BTC.  As soon as someone starts betting max bets I'll be getting the full risk every roll.  Not seeing what total BR size has to do with it.  Variance and swings are all relative to the base.  Not seeing ANY logic at all for a 10 BTC max bet at 10k deposited but a 1000 BTC max bet if more cash is deposited up to 100k total.  I'm assuming the 10k and 100k figures are just random numbers with no math to back why those are better than, say, 9123 and 57243.56.

Plus your suggestion means the max bet is way smaller when deposited cash is low - then rises when there's a lot deposited and, arguably, it doesn't need raising anyway.
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