USB ASIC Miners will never ROI at 1 BTC/device

[Bastet]

If you're thinking about getting one of those USB ASIC miners that do about 330 MH/s for 1 BTC, then forget about it.

With all the ASICs coming online, and ASIC production scaling up, and new ASICs in the works, the network hash rate is about to SKYROCKET for the next seeable future.

Just look at the past 3 months of difficulty increases as an indicator on how much it's going to explode.  I expect with the next 6-12 months we are going see triple digit percent increases in difficulty over it's previous difficulty.

That means your little USB miner is going to earn SIGNIFICANTLY less every difficulty change.  So much so that these little devices will never return on investment (ROI.)

I ran a some numbers in Excel and these miners have a plateau on how much BTC they can earn/mine... and it's way less than they cost to obtained.

For example, at 1 BTC to obtain one, expected to get a max ROI of 0.8 BTC IF the average network hashrate increases by 15% per difficulty change (every two weeks or so) over the next 6-12 months.  That 15% is really conservative.  I'd expect your 1 BTC investment to recover less than half of that in mining.

And that's if you got the little miners within the week you paid for them.  Every week that goes by without a delivered miner reduces the max ROI, so obviously, pre-orders are a joke...

AT THE CURRENT PRICE OF ~ 1 BTC per device.

However, what I say goes out the window if you paid USD for it, but I would never pay BTC for them at this time.  There is no ROI on them, unless the prices significantly dropped to about 0.1 BTC, then maybe you could make a few times your initial investment before they become useless by earning too little.

Remember, this is not valid if you can pay USD for them because BTC is expected to increase in value, and BTC mined will be worth something down the road.  Can't say the same for USD.

Spending 1 BTC to get 0.8 BTC, maybe even less?  It's a no-brainer.  Don't do it, unless you want to look cool and hip to your friends, but don't expect a ROI if you're paying in BTC.

Update:

https://i.imgur.com/rNSuJEv.jpg

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[empoweoqwj]

You were doing well until you said "because BTC is expected to increase in value, and BTC mined will be worth something down the road.  Can't say the same for USD."

Neither you nor I nor anyone can say one BTC will be worth more in less in 3 months time. We live in hope, but not in expectation.

[notme]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=237937.msg2580881#msg2580881

Let's walk through this: http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/

Let's do it in BTC terms, so set USD/BTC to 1 and price to 1.  Set electrical rate to 0.0009 (about $0.09/KWh).  Set hashrate to advertised 334.  Power Consumption: 2.5 W

Now, let's set profitability decline to 0.05, which is an assumption that we will have a 20x increase in difficulty over the next year.

Hardware break even   1 year, 1 day

Oh, and the ones I have in hand are hashing at 400MH/s, but shhhh.

[rikur]

Buy the dongle for a Bitcoin and buy another Bitcoin for ~100 USD. Trust me, ROI will be glorious.

[dinogenes]

t. Asicminer share holder

[franky1]

OP obviously a GPU miner and maybe butt hurt after he spent $300 on a 7000 series GPU outputting 300mhash, and now people are able to buy USB miners 3rd of the price to compete against those last few GPU miners that are still in the game.

my suggestion is dont spend $300 on a GPU. buy 3xUSB miners. atleast your hash rate per dollar will be higher, and electricity bill will be lower.

or rent hash power from an ASIC miner if you cant afford to buy one in full

heres some maths.

buy 10 units totalling 3,400 mhash. revenue 2.5BTC this month.
buy 11th unit next month to compensate a 10% rise in difficulty. and pocket 1.5BTC

rinse and repeat for a constant never ending 1.5BTC income per month.

[lazydna]

OP obviously a GPU miner and maybe butt hurt after he spent $300 on a 7000 series GPU outputting 300mhash, and now people are able to buy USB miners 3rd of the price to compete against those last few GPU miners that are still in the game.

my suggestion is dont spend $300 on a GPU. buy 3xUSB miners. atleast your hash rate per dollar will be higher, and electricity bill will be lower.

or rent hash power from an ASIC miner if you cant afford to buy one in full

$300 7xxx series would get you around 660hash. more power consumption, but currently. 36% more profitable then bitcoin.

usb miners are a at a more fair price @ 1btc. but still not worth it

lol @ people who bought it at 2btc.

edit: you assume only 10% increase for an entire 30days? buddy, the last 2 cycles were 2x% @ 11days and that's just the tip of the dick when avalon ships their chips and other production starts ramping up.

[lazydna]

OP obviously a GPU miner and maybe butt hurt after he spent $300 on a 7000 series GPU outputting 300mhash, and now people are able to buy USB miners 3rd of the price to compete against those last few GPU miners that are still in the game.

my suggestion is dont spend $300 on a GPU. buy 3xUSB miners. atleast your hash rate per dollar will be higher, and electricity bill will be lower.

or rent hash power from an ASIC miner if you cant afford to buy one in full

heres some maths.

buy 10 units totalling 3,400 mhash. revenue 2.5BTC this month.
buy 11th unit next month to compensate a 10% rise in difficulty. and pocket 1.5BTC

rinse and repeat for a constant never ending 1.5BTC income per month.

you don't really understand how the difficulty works do you?

[franky1]

hmm should i reply to a out of context knit picker.. nope

[lazydna]

hmm should i reply to a out of context knit picker.. nope

how is that out of context?
you said the math, I pointed out the flaw in your math.
your assumption of 10% change every 30days is grossly misleading.

[tlr]

Some people aren't in it for profit.

• Novelty factor.
• Some people may be willing to lose a little money to contribute to securing Bitcoin.
• Mined coins are more anonymous than purchased coins, thus possibly worth more to some people.

[Melbustus]

Some people aren't in it for profit.

• Novelty factor.
• Some people may be willing to lose a little money to contribute to securing Bitcoin.
• Mined coins are more anonymous than purchased coins, thus possibly worth more to some people.

Bingo.

I bought a few at 2BTC. Resold a couple, and still run a couple on a Raspberry Pi. It's fun, and I'm doing a little bit for network decentralization, etc...

I didn't buy my USB Miners for the ROI. I bought ASICMiner shares themselves for ROI...

[Bastet]

...
buy 11th unit next month to compensate a 10% rise in difficulty. and pocket 1.5BTC

rinse and repeat for a constant never ending 1.5BTC income per month.

Network hash rate increased ~ 600% in 4 months (from 25TH/s to 150TH/s) since ASICs started shipping...and the ramping up of ASIC production is just getting started...by many companies that haven't even begun shipping yet.  Expect a market flood.

I laugh at your 10% increase every month.  Do the math, and a little forecasting both optimistic and pessimistic, either way, the increase in ASIC hashing power will crush your returns faster than a Black Wednesday on the DOW.

Denial is a river in Egypt my friend.

I've been mining for 2 years now.  Made most of my BTC in the beginning when hashing power was within grasp of the common man.  I'd like to get into ASIC but I just can't justify the prices, especially if you have to pay in BTC.  I rather pay good old USD.

Just recently stop GPU mining.  I've reached my break even point on my GPU mining.  At current USD/BTC, it's just not worth it.  I'm willing to bet that a USB miner will no longer be worth mining in less than 6 months (1 BTC/device) from now and you will not recoup your 1 BTC you spent to get it.  I'll re-visit this post in 6 months and post an update.

[Monetizer]

They may not make their BTC back they may make a profit in USD...

[notme]

...
buy 11th unit next month to compensate a 10% rise in difficulty. and pocket 1.5BTC

rinse and repeat for a constant never ending 1.5BTC income per month.

Network hash rate increased ~ 600% in 4 months (from 25TH/s to 150TH/s) since ASICs started shipping...and the ramping up of ASIC production is just getting started...by many companies that haven't even begun shipping yet.  Expect a market flood.

I laugh at your 10% increase every month.  Do the math, and a little forecasting both optimistic and pessimistic, either way, the increase in ASIC hashing power will crush your returns faster than a Black Wednesday on the DOW.

Denial is a river in Egypt my friend.

I've been mining for 2 years now.  Made most of my BTC in the beginning when hashing power was within grasp of the common man.  I'd like to get into ASIC but I just can't justify the prices, especially if you have to pay in BTC.  I rather pay good old USD.

Just recently stop GPU mining.  I've reached my break even point on my GPU mining.  At current USD/BTC, it's just not worth it.  I'm willing to bet that a USB miner will no longer be worth mining in less than 6 months (1 BTC/device) from now and you will not recoup your 1 BTC you spent to get it.  I'll re-visit this post in 6 months and post an update.

400 MH/s USB miners cost me $2 a year in electricity.  Are you sure they won't be worth mining on in 6 months?

[lazydna]

They may not make their BTC back they may make a profit in USD...

...
then you are better off just BUYING BTC!
if your investment, in BTC, does not return the same value in BTC, you are better off just exchanging FOR BTC.

[lazydna]

...
buy 11th unit next month to compensate a 10% rise in difficulty. and pocket 1.5BTC

rinse and repeat for a constant never ending 1.5BTC income per month.

Network hash rate increased ~ 600% in 4 months (from 25TH/s to 150TH/s) since ASICs started shipping...and the ramping up of ASIC production is just getting started...by many companies that haven't even begun shipping yet.  Expect a market flood.

I laugh at your 10% increase every month.  Do the math, and a little forecasting both optimistic and pessimistic, either way, the increase in ASIC hashing power will crush your returns faster than a Black Wednesday on the DOW.

Denial is a river in Egypt my friend.

I've been mining for 2 years now.  Made most of my BTC in the beginning when hashing power was within grasp of the common man.  I'd like to get into ASIC but I just can't justify the prices, especially if you have to pay in BTC.  I rather pay good old USD.

Just recently stop GPU mining.  I've reached my break even point on my GPU mining.  At current USD/BTC, it's just not worth it.  I'm willing to bet that a USB miner will no longer be worth mining in less than 6 months (1 BTC/device) from now and you will not recoup your 1 BTC you spent to get it.  I'll re-visit this post in 6 months and post an update.

400 MH/s USB miners cost me $2 a year in electricity.  Are you sure they won't be worth mining on in 6 months?

depends whats your cost of electricity and the use? 2.5watts or 3? and relative to the value of BTC? since you cannot pay your electric with btc.

[notme]

...
buy 11th unit next month to compensate a 10% rise in difficulty. and pocket 1.5BTC

rinse and repeat for a constant never ending 1.5BTC income per month.

Network hash rate increased ~ 600% in 4 months (from 25TH/s to 150TH/s) since ASICs started shipping...and the ramping up of ASIC production is just getting started...by many companies that haven't even begun shipping yet.  Expect a market flood.

I laugh at your 10% increase every month.  Do the math, and a little forecasting both optimistic and pessimistic, either way, the increase in ASIC hashing power will crush your returns faster than a Black Wednesday on the DOW.

Denial is a river in Egypt my friend.

I've been mining for 2 years now.  Made most of my BTC in the beginning when hashing power was within grasp of the common man.  I'd like to get into ASIC but I just can't justify the prices, especially if you have to pay in BTC.  I rather pay good old USD.

Just recently stop GPU mining.  I've reached my break even point on my GPU mining.  At current USD/BTC, it's just not worth it.  I'm willing to bet that a USB miner will no longer be worth mining in less than 6 months (1 BTC/device) from now and you will not recoup your 1 BTC you spent to get it.  I'll re-visit this post in 6 months and post an update.

400 MH/s USB miners cost me $2 a year in electricity.  Are you sure they won't be worth mining on in 6 months?

depends whats your cost of electricity and the use? 2.5watts or 3? and relative to the value of BTC? since you cannot pay your electric with btc.

2.5 watts at $0.09/KWh

At the moment, electrical costs are roughly 1.5% of revenue.  So you are claiming (BTC Price)/(BTC Difficulty) will be 1/67th of it's current value within 6 months?  That's a pretty bold prediction

[zoinky]

Same argument has been said since any mining device ever existed.  People mine, end of story.

[lazydna]

...
buy 11th unit next month to compensate a 10% rise in difficulty. and pocket 1.5BTC

rinse and repeat for a constant never ending 1.5BTC income per month.

Network hash rate increased ~ 600% in 4 months (from 25TH/s to 150TH/s) since ASICs started shipping...and the ramping up of ASIC production is just getting started...by many companies that haven't even begun shipping yet.  Expect a market flood.

I laugh at your 10% increase every month.  Do the math, and a little forecasting both optimistic and pessimistic, either way, the increase in ASIC hashing power will crush your returns faster than a Black Wednesday on the DOW.

Denial is a river in Egypt my friend.

I've been mining for 2 years now.  Made most of my BTC in the beginning when hashing power was within grasp of the common man.  I'd like to get into ASIC but I just can't justify the prices, especially if you have to pay in BTC.  I rather pay good old USD.

Just recently stop GPU mining.  I've reached my break even point on my GPU mining.  At current USD/BTC, it's just not worth it.  I'm willing to bet that a USB miner will no longer be worth mining in less than 6 months (1 BTC/device) from now and you will not recoup your 1 BTC you spent to get it.  I'll re-visit this post in 6 months and post an update.

400 MH/s USB miners cost me $2 a year in electricity.  Are you sure they won't be worth mining on in 6 months?

depends whats your cost of electricity and the use? 2.5watts or 3? and relative to the value of BTC? since you cannot pay your electric with btc.

2.5 watts at $0.09/KWh

At the moment, electrical costs are roughly 1.5% of revenue.  So you are claiming (BTC Price)/(BTC Difficulty) will be 1/67th of it's current value within 6 months?  That's a pretty bold prediction

also did you pay 1 or 2 btc for them. i suspect 2.x