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Author Topic: Group Bet Gamble on Just Dice.  (Read 2207 times)
Dabs
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June 26, 2013, 07:09:04 AM
 #1

Anyone interested in a Group Bet?

Currently, the max profit on just-dice is about 94.41 BTC. Which means, you can bet the maximum of the following:

Code:
chance payout        max bet
98     1.010204082   9280.60
97     1.020618557   4592.94
96     1.03125       3030.40
95     1.042105263   2249.12
90     1.1            946.99
85     1.164705882    574.96
80     1.2375         398.73
75     1.32           295.93
70     1.414285714    228.58
65     1.523076923    181.04
60     1.65           145.69
55     1.8            118.37
50     1.98            96.63

The idea is to decide on a collective bet, what chance, how much, if I do a martingale with it, or if I just bet it all on a single bet.

For example, for the 50% chance, I collect 96.63 BTC from everyone into a cold wallet address (which I will GPG sign) and people post their transaction information and I will properly record and account everyone and how much they contributed.

Once the total is reached, I get the funds, deposit them into just-dice, and bet the whole amount on 50%. If I win, I withdraw the prize, then allocate to everyone the correct percentage, then send out the appropriate BTC.

Of course, this is a gamble. If I lose, I will show the bet id and link to it, so you all know, we all lost.

If there is enough interest or pledges, I will publish an escrow address to be used for this purpose. Majority must decide on what chance to play, and how much to collect, but the goal is to hit the max profit.

Please do not give BTC you can not afford to lose.

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June 26, 2013, 07:15:06 AM
 #2

Sounds some what suspicious.. Also even if there was a 10% (Or 1%?? Any chance is still applicable) chance you would run off with the $20k pot if you win, that would still leave all 'investors' at a much lower EV than if they didn't do this & gambled on their own. It's just lowering your EV for no reason apart from a small kick of hitting the max profit ;P

Good luck anyone who wishes to participate though  Grin
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June 26, 2013, 07:18:38 AM
 #3

Anyone interested in a Group Bet?

Interesting idea, but I'm not sure I understand.

Why would I take part in a group bet when I could just make the bet myself?  I get the same odds, the same payout, and I don't have to trust you to actually place the bet.

I can see it making sense for me, because it doesn't feel right playing Just-Dice myself since I have access to the server and its delicious secrets.  But that only applies to me.

I guess there's the coolness factor.  "Look, we're putting a 9k BTC bet on 98%".  You could end up placing the biggest bet in Bitcoin dice-site history* that way.  Is there any reason I'm missing?

According to organofcorti's blog post:

Quote
The largest bets were at the maximum of 500 BTC and happened several times since the start of the year, but none were the highest in terms of USD. The larget USD bet was 400 BTC at US$125.40 / BTC for a US$50160 bet.

That's just for SatoshiDice, but that is probably the biggest 'dice site' bet to date, although I hope Just-Dice beats that record soon.  We had three 100 BTC bets today, and have had a 200 BTC bet a couple of days ago, so it's possible.

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June 26, 2013, 07:19:43 AM
 #4

Sounds some what suspicious.. Also even if there was a 10% (Or 1%?? Any chance is still applicable) chance you would run off with the $20k pot if you win, that would still leave all 'investors' at a much lower EV than if they didn't do this & gambled on their own. It's just lowering your EV for no reason apart from a small kick of hitting the max profit ;P

Good luck anyone who wishes to participate though  Grin

Yeah.  That's what I said, only shorter.  Smiley

It's like we're both sock-puppets.

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June 26, 2013, 07:20:50 AM
 #5

Dabs, at what percentage of investment in this pot does it turn to a win-win for you, given your (presumed) investment at JD?
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June 26, 2013, 07:56:50 AM
 #6

I can't see the advantage of this idea.

People group together for lottery because they want to spread their money into many tickets. As far as I can see, such idea is not applicable here.
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June 26, 2013, 08:28:20 AM
 #7

1. I don't have any significant investment on JD. The last time I checked, it was 0.01%.
2. I will not run away with any amount of BTC, gambled or not. I operate a lotto of my own, I have facilitated a private group buy of mining chips, and I'm also facilitating a separate public group buy for my region/area (but has no buyers yet.)
3. This is just for hitting a milestone, I guess. Or the coolness factor. Of course, everyone can all do it. But it's boring to bet your 1 satoshi.
4. If it is one big giant bet, we can decide on a time I will be online to do it. Then everyone can watch as I do the bet or bets (if more than one, or if we want to attempt a martingale.)

For reference, I am the payroll master of the company I work for, and twice a month or every two weeks I send out real fiat money payments to more than 180 employees. The amount I am responsible for varies from 3 to 5 million Philippine Pesos, which translated into bitcoins is approximately 600 to 1000 BTC, twice a month.

I will not verify or have that audited, and of course, I have taken precautions to prevent that money from being stolen, taken by force, etc.

I would like to think that I am immune to any such temptations to disappear with your bitcoins. But as Zaih has mentioned, there might be a 0.0001% chance I will do so.

I have no personal incentive for me to do that. In fact, if I do the Group Bet, I stand to gain:
1. The coolness factor of betting a single large bet. All contributors will be mentioned, unless you wish to be anonymous.
2. Street cred? or whatever you call it. I should get more escrow business. Publicity stunt?
3. We will all have a new index, called the Large Bet on Dice index, right beside the 10,000 bitcoin Pizza.

But hey, if there isn't enough interest, this simply will not happen. I just thought of this idea since it was mentioned.

So.... who wants in? We haven't decided yet the plan, so I'm open to suggestions.

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June 26, 2013, 08:53:43 AM
 #8

Current Max Profit is 114 BTC now. Also, here are my just-dice stats

bets:
317,870
wins:
279,531
losses:
38,339
luck:
100.07%

so I have 10% of the total number of bets. however, these are all satoshi bets.
eh, was having fun playing with the bot that was posted in the main thread.

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June 27, 2013, 03:19:03 PM
 #9

Max Profit: 135+ and increasing. No one wants to do the biggest bet in dice history? I guess not, was worth a try though.

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June 27, 2013, 03:21:12 PM
 #10

Max Profit: 135+ and increasing. No one wants to do the biggest bet in dice history? I guess not, was worth a try though.

It's not the biggest bet in dice history though Sad

There's been a few 500 Bitcoin bets on SD Tongue
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June 27, 2013, 09:32:53 PM
 #11

There's been a few 500 Bitcoin bets on SD Tongue

I say money laundering.

BEEP BEP
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June 27, 2013, 10:16:19 PM
 #12

Max Profit: 135+ and increasing. No one wants to do the biggest bet in dice history? I guess not, was worth a try though.

It's not the biggest bet in dice history though Sad

There's been a few 500 Bitcoin bets on SD Tongue
Just-Dice supports a 14K BTC bet on 98%. AKA the "omgwtfbbq" bet.

I recommend asking me for a signature from my GPG key before doing a trade. I will NEVER deny such a request.
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June 28, 2013, 01:44:36 AM
 #13

Yeah, 14K BTC bet... that's the idea, but 14K is a helluva lot of fund raising. We could lower the chance to win to 97% or 96% to dissect the bet size, but still remain as the biggest bet (or at least bigger than SD ever will have.)

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June 28, 2013, 02:04:37 AM
 #14

Yeah something tells me that if you bet 14k you insta lose  Roll Eyes

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June 28, 2013, 08:47:10 AM
 #15

Yeah something tells me that if you bet 14k you insta lose  Roll Eyes

I will link to the bet id. So everyone can see the unlucky number.

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June 28, 2013, 10:42:38 AM
 #16

Yeah something tells me that if you bet 14k you insta lose  Roll Eyes

The game is provably fair.  The 98% bet wins 98% of the time.  It only pays out 1.01020408x though.  S you risk 14k BTC to make just 142.85712 BTC in profit.

Pretty safe (49 in 50 times you win) but expensive when you lose!

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June 28, 2013, 03:34:08 PM
 #17

Just my one cent on this:) . https://just-dice.com/roll/6255207

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June 28, 2013, 09:34:47 PM
 #18

Just my one cent on this:) .https://just-dice.com/roll/6255207

Should have rolled low. Smiley

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June 29, 2013, 07:00:59 AM
 #19

Yeah something tells me that if you bet 14k you insta lose  Roll Eyes

"gladoscc" just bet around 500 BTC on Just-Dice.com three times in a row.  And won all three times:

    https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=246184.msg2609590#msg2609590

Just FYI.

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   1% House Edge
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June 30, 2013, 06:24:33 AM
 #20

561 BTC = highest bet so far.

Anyone want to "beat" that? I suggest we go for 600 or 700, on 98%. But if we're 50 different people contributing, I guess we all have the "balls" to go on a lower chance to win, like 90% or 88%. Of course, all contributors vote on this, proportionally (so the guy who sends in 400 BTC basically dictates the roll.)

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