Will the next crypto-depression be longer/harder than 2014-2017 ?

[yogg]

I wonder .. With bitcoin touching such heights, do you think the time it will take until the next bubble will be even longer than between the 2013 one and this one ?

I suppose the price will increase from bubble to bubble with a higher "plateau" than before, before bubbles. Each plateau shouldn't go as low as the previous one.
These suppositions are based on the fact that the overall value of bitcoin increases after each bubble without going down to previous lows.
This should happen until we see a "massive adoption".

(By the way, I'm not sure if even 1% of the world population knows about bitcoin, and the early adopters are the first 20% .. so we are like .. early adopters of early adopters )

Any thoughts on that matter ?

[1714975259]

1714975259

[gentlemand]

If you're a Masterluc fan his latest forecast is a rise to $25,000 ish, then a fall to $10,000 ish and then the journey to another galaxy begins in 2019 and peaks 2021. So in his opinion a lengthy lull will happen again.

But the never going below previous ATHs was blown to pieces when it went over $100 below $266 so no one knows anything.

So much is different now that I don't think 2013 can really be compared. Alts are far bigger and more numerous. BTC might well be delivering smart contracts with Rootstock and lightning networks soon. Japan has made it as legit as can be. Futures might deliver ETFs of some sort.

Post 2013 there was a real possibility it could've died. It was still nowhere. Now it's getting somewhere but I've no idea what the final destination is.

[Hydrogen]

The bitcoin "crash" of 2014 was caused by Silk Road being shut down, Ross Ulbricht (alias "Dread Pirate Roberts") who ran Silk Road being arrested and I think china shut down crypto exchanges.

Earlier this year alpha bay, silk road 2.0 and the media claims "hundreds" of dark web crypto markets were shut down. The price of bitcoin didn't move much in response to this news. It might be said the value of bitcoin no longer relies upon darknet markets like alpha bay or silk road to retain its value. Likewise, china shut down exchanges earlier this year as well which had a significantly decreased effect on btc's price in comparison to 2014.

Already this year we've seen two major events which were very similar to the ones which caused the 2014 crash and bitcoin's price was mostly unaffected which could suggest we will never see the type of crash which occurred, bitcoin has become too decentralized and distributed for it to be affected in the same way by those events.

[pat_13b]

It's crazy that the Nicehash hack hasn't even made a blip on the market yet... What the hell is going on?

[gentlemand]

It's crazy that the Nicehash hack hasn't even made a blip on the market yet... What the hell is going on?

It's certainly a lot of dollars. It's no longer actually all that many bitcoins.

It's a drop in the tidal wave of news and developments popping up at the moment. It's also a drop in the 24hr volume. It would've been a huge deal a couple of years ago. Right now there are other things on everyone's mind.

[eminemcookie]

I think actually the next will probably be a lot shorter, it's maybe the one after that that worries me the most. I think the next one there will be so much fresh money with the mentality of 'it's bitcoin it's a risky asset this is normal' and so it will be recovered from fairly quickly. After that it may become more difficult as this mentality starts to dissipate and that's why I worry about the second one and not the next one.

[bribed]

If you're a Masterluc fan his latest forecast is a rise to $25,000 ish, then a fall to $10,000 ish and then the journey to another galaxy begins in 2019 and peaks 2021. So in his opinion a lengthy lull will happen again.

I just read about masterluc in another thread. His forecast was that we will hit $15,000 before the end of this year, and he is most likely right! Its the first time I hear of him and am very interested to learn more. Can you give me advice where to follow him and where to read about him / his trades / forecasts? I would much appreciate it!

As I was not around at the first depression (only in crypto for a little over a year now), I cant tell much about it. However I think that we are gaining so much traction and publicity nowadays that I cant imagine that another big depression will follow soon. The easy funding model of ICO's also did add another side to crypto. Crypto can nowadays be used for way more than only as currency. There are utility token that can be used for a lot of different stuff, there are equity token that are like a share in real world companies, I guess one has to consider those newly emerged things as well.

[gentlemand]

I just read about masterluc in another thread. His forecast was that we will hit $15,000 before the end of this year, and he is most likely right! Its the first time I hear of him and am very interested to learn more. Can you give me advice where to follow him and where to read about him / his trades / forecasts? I would much appreciate it!

As I was not around at the first depression (only in crypto for a little over a year now), I cant tell much about it. However I think that we are gaining so much traction and publicity nowadays that I cant imagine that another big depression will follow soon. The easy funding model of ICO's also did add another side to crypto. Crypto can nowadays be used for way more than only as currency. There are utility token that can be used for a lot of different stuff, there are equity token that are like a share in real world companies, I guess one has to consider those newly emerged things as well.

He posts in Russian these days here - https://vk.com/bitcoin_vanga

This thread discusses him but it can take a while for his new posts to be deciphered - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=274613.0

No one knows what the future will bring but his calls so far have been pretty eerily on the mark.

[jseverson]

Wait what? Wasn't that depression caused by Mt. Gox's collapse? I mean, it was a giant exchange that was handling like 70% of all transactions worldwide. It affected a large portion of Bitcoin users, and I'm sure having your coins stolen isn't very motivating for you to continue any longer.

Either way, I don't see a collapse coming just because of the incredibly bullish run. It has never really worked that way. It may correct, yes, but collapses were usually preceded by some catastrophe that involves Bitcoin in a way, like how Mt. Gox collapsed. Not even China shutting down exchanges crippled it, when there were some people who legitimately believed Bitcoin would end there. Bitcoin is stronger than ever, but that may also mean that while it would be harder to bring down, it would also be harder to put back up.

[gentlemand]

Wait what? Wasn't that depression caused by Mt. Gox's collapse? I mean, it was a giant exchange that was handling like 70% of all transactions worldwide. It affected a large portion of Bitcoin users, and I'm sure having your coins stolen isn't very motivating for you to continue any longer.

Either way, I don't see a collapse coming just because of the incredibly bullish run. It has never really worked that way. It may correct, yes, but collapses were usually preceded by some catastrophe that involves Bitcoin in a way, like how Mt. Gox collapsed. Not even China shutting down exchanges crippled it, when there were some people who legitimately believed Bitcoin would end there. Bitcoin is stronger than ever, but that may also mean that while it would be harder to bring down, it would also be harder to put back up.

By the time it died Gox had been long overtaken by multiple exchanges, but it did have a lot of coins still on it despite years of warning signs.

Some theorise that the long grind was down to stolen Gox coins, several hundred thousand, being laundered and sold but it was also for certain down to going too high with nothing backing it other than hopes and blag.

There are still plenty of potential ball aches - onerous regulations imposed in the US or EU, Korea doing a China.