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Author Topic: Newest scam in town!  (Read 2371 times)
elements (OP)
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June 27, 2013, 02:12:35 AM
Last edit: June 27, 2013, 02:23:00 AM by elements
 #1

Hi guys,

I was looking for interesting sites about ripple and found this nice little scam site:

http://www.rippleflip.com/ - provably fair Wink



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Just so you now: these are all my bets (1 xrp to 70 xrp)
(also note, that the one bet I "won" I hit the multiplier x 0.5)

lol!

So be warned !

Wink

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TheSpiral
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June 27, 2013, 02:24:05 AM
 #2

What is the scam?
elements (OP)
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June 27, 2013, 02:27:43 AM
 #3

8 bets - all lost (seems very fair).

lol

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fml


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June 27, 2013, 02:28:39 AM
 #4

8 bets - all lost (seems very fair).

lol
Guessing you've never been to a casino Roll Eyes

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June 27, 2013, 02:31:24 AM
 #5

and the scam is...


that you lose all your bets? or just because you win only 1 bet??


have you ever enter to a casino and played some money??


hello!!! this is earth calling!!! is there some brains in that head???

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June 27, 2013, 02:31:50 AM
 #6

Ever played roulette in a casino?

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elements (OP)
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June 27, 2013, 02:38:14 AM
 #7

have you ever thrown a coin?

This is not roulette. Look at the payout structure.


I just thought people would like to know.

(BTW I wouldn't consider getting back 50% of your wager winning)


Oh, and I hereby invite you to play if you think it's such a good deal...

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TheSpiral
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June 27, 2013, 03:08:21 AM
 #8

have you ever thrown a coin?
Coin flipping is a scam? Do you need a dictionary?
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June 27, 2013, 08:17:42 AM
 #9

Seems to be doing ok now.



Sometimes you just have to walk away from the table for a while.

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June 27, 2013, 08:28:11 AM
 #10

Real title "Newest idiot in town!"

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June 27, 2013, 08:29:37 AM
 #11

0.5x payout  Cheesy Cheesy
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June 27, 2013, 08:45:10 AM
 #12

Seems to be doing ok now.



Sometimes you just have to walk away from the table for a while.


Yeah I just saw that aswell.
It's not a scam.

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fml


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June 27, 2013, 11:49:25 AM
 #13

have you ever thrown a coin?

This is not roulette. Look at the payout structure.


I just thought people would like to know.

(BTW I wouldn't consider getting back 50% of your wager winning)


Oh, and I hereby invite you to play if you think it's such a good deal...


Its called gambling. The house always wins, idiot Roll Eyes
I don't gamble, because I don't like to lose. You always lose, more than you win, that's how they make money.

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June 28, 2013, 06:23:39 AM
Last edit: June 28, 2013, 07:16:23 AM by Rippleflip.com
 #14

Hello!

It was a surprise to see our site being called a scam here. To be clear, it is not.
And we of course can prove it. Please, input your ripple address here to verify the game outcome: http://www.rippleflip.com/?data


We will answer all your questions via our thread, pm, IRC (Rippleflip@Freenode) or email.
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June 29, 2013, 06:30:47 AM
 #15

have you ever thrown a coin?

This is not roulette. Look at the payout structure.


I just thought people would like to know.

(BTW I wouldn't consider getting back 50% of your wager winning)


Oh, and I hereby invite you to play if you think it's such a good deal...

Quote
The house edge of the game is ~1.85%.
Ten coins are flipped, each coin landing on either  or  side.

Resembles roulette when playing Black-Red, Even-Odd and 1 to 18 - 19 to 36. Only difference here, they don't take one turn but 10.

For your coin, what makes you think you can't pick the wrong side 8 times in a row?

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June 29, 2013, 06:38:26 AM
 #16

It is gambling, you are sure to lose and no one forces you to play
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June 29, 2013, 06:41:37 AM
 #17

Agree with most of the comments, you are gambling that many times, you are certain to loose everything , and it won't be a scam, just stupidity on your part.

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June 29, 2013, 08:00:58 AM
 #18

why would I gamble/use a system that is provable = I lose?

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June 29, 2013, 08:05:08 AM
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why would I gamble/use a system that is provable = I lose?

Yeap, why why why?  You have to answer it yourself.
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June 29, 2013, 09:09:07 AM
 #20

Anything involving Ripple is pretty much a waste of time at best, or a scam at worst.
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June 30, 2013, 04:22:36 AM
Last edit: June 30, 2013, 06:23:27 PM by redtwitz
 #21

There are 210=1024 different possible outcomes when flipping a coin 10 times. If that coin is fair, the outcomes will be distributed proportionally to the values of the eleventh row of the Pascal triangle, that is, proportional to:

Code:
1 10 45 120 210 252 210 120 45 10 1

This means that if you repeat this game 1024 times, the expected outcome is 1 time all heads, 10 times 9 heads and 1 tail, 45 times 8 heads and 2 tails, etc.

On Rippleflip, you lose your entire bet if you get 4 heads (or whatever they call it) and 6 tails or vice versa. I agree with you that recovering half of your bet isn't exactly winning, so you also lose if you get 5 heads and 5 tails.

That means that in every game there's a chance of (210 + 252 + 210) / 1024 = 672 / 1024 = 0.65625 = 65.625 % of losing.

If you play 8 times in a row (like you did), you'll lose all 8 times with probability 0.656258 = 0.03439969 = 3.439969 %. That sound unlikely, but statistically 1 out of every 1 / 0.03439969 = 29 customers will lose his first 8 games in a row.
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June 30, 2013, 05:10:00 AM
 #22

Probably the best answer your'll ever get.   Pascal was the Don   Cool

Goto a local fair and the stalls are using really old laws of probability to make an easy win over you.  I remember seeing the Pascal triangle as a game several times & it wins $50 if you reach that far end  1 in 1024 chance event


I thought some sort of error in probability where it became exploitable would be the downfall of BTC somehow but apparently not so far

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June 30, 2013, 08:54:41 AM
 #23

There are 210=1024 different possible outcomes when flipping a coin 10 times. If that coin is fair, the outcomes will be distributed proportionally to the values of the eleventh row of the Pascal triangle, that is, proportional to:

Code:
1 10 45 120 210 252 210 120 45 10 1

This means that if you repeat this game 1024 times, the expected outcome is 1 time all heads, 10 times 9 heads and 1 tail, 45 times 8 heads and 2 tails, etc.

On Rippleflip, you lose your entire bet if you get 4 heads (or whatever they call it) and 6 tails or vice versa. I agree with you that recovering half of your bet isn't exactly winning, so you also lose if you get 5 heads and 5 tails.

That means that in every game there's a chance of (210 + 252 + 210) / 1024 = 672 / 1024 = 0.65625 = 65.625 % of losing.

If you play 8 times in a row (like you did), you'll lose all 8 times with probability 0.656258=0.03439969=3.439969 %. That sound unlikely, but statistically 1 out of every 1 / 0.03439969 = 29 customers will lose his first 8 games in a row.

I would like to correct you that when indeed the 5/5 wins half of the bet, the real chances for losing are 53.32%
Our house edge is ~1.85% as we've stated at Rippleflip.com. For comparison, that is lower than for example SD.
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June 30, 2013, 06:46:05 PM
 #24

Our house edge is ~1.85% as we've stated at Rippleflip.com. For comparison, that is lower than for example SD.

I'm not arguing that. I did the math. For anyone who's interested:

Code:
Multiplicator|Probability|Expected earnings
-------------+-----------+-----------------
     17      |    2/1024 |      34/1024
      7      |   20/1024 |     140/1024
      3      |   45/1024 |     135/1024
      2      |  285/1024 |     570/1024
     1/2     |  252/1024 |     126/1024
      0      |  420/1024 |       0/1024
-------------+-----------+-----------------
     SUM       1024/1024      1005/1024

Since the expected earnings are 1005 / 1024 of your bet, the house's edge is (1024 - 1005) / 1024 = 19 / 1024 = 0.018554687 = 1.8554687 %.

I would like to correct you that when indeed the 5/5 wins half of the bet, the real chances for losing are 53.32%

The probability of losing your entire bet is 41.02 % and the probability of losing half of it is 24.61 %. Therefore, the probability of losing at least part of your bet is 65.63 %. That's all that I'm saying.

I think the math behind your 53.32 % is flawed; you're mixing probability and expected value here.
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June 30, 2013, 11:39:56 PM
 #25

the ponies have been scamming me for years.
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July 01, 2013, 06:32:27 AM
 #26

Our house edge is ~1.85% as we've stated at Rippleflip.com. For comparison, that is lower than for example SD.

I'm not arguing that. I did the math. For anyone who's interested:

Code:
Multiplicator|Probability|Expected earnings
-------------+-----------+-----------------
     17      |    2/1024 |      34/1024
      7      |   20/1024 |     140/1024
      3      |   45/1024 |     135/1024
      2      |  285/1024 |     570/1024
     1/2     |  252/1024 |     126/1024
      0      |  420/1024 |       0/1024
-------------+-----------+-----------------
     SUM       1024/1024      1005/1024

Since the expected earnings are 1005 / 1024 of your bet, the house's edge is (1024 - 1005) / 1024 = 19 / 1024 = 0.018554687 = 1.8554687 %.

I would like to correct you that when indeed the 5/5 wins half of the bet, the real chances for losing are 53.32%

The probability of losing your entire bet is 41.02 % and the probability of losing half of it is 24.61 %. Therefore, the probability of losing at least part of your bet is 65.63 %. That's all that I'm saying.

I think the math behind your 53.32 % is flawed; you're mixing probability and expected value here.

You're correct.
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July 01, 2013, 02:35:19 PM
 #27

Our house edge is ~1.85% as we've stated at Rippleflip.com. For comparison, that is lower than for example SD.

I'm not arguing that. I did the math. For anyone who's interested:

Code:
Multiplicator|Probability|Expected earnings
-------------+-----------+-----------------
     17      |    2/1024 |      34/1024
      7      |   20/1024 |     140/1024
      3      |   45/1024 |     135/1024
      2      |  285/1024 |     570/1024
     1/2     |  252/1024 |     126/1024
      0      |  420/1024 |       0/1024
-------------+-----------+-----------------
     SUM       1024/1024      1005/1024

Since the expected earnings are 1005 / 1024 of your bet, the house's edge is (1024 - 1005) / 1024 = 19 / 1024 = 0.018554687 = 1.8554687 %.

I would like to correct you that when indeed the 5/5 wins half of the bet, the real chances for losing are 53.32%

The probability of losing your entire bet is 41.02 % and the probability of losing half of it is 24.61 %. Therefore, the probability of losing at least part of your bet is 65.63 %. That's all that I'm saying.

I think the math behind your 53.32 % is flawed; you're mixing probability and expected value here.

So exactly what is the scam, I don't get it. Your chances to lose your first 5000 state lottery tickets are pretty good, does this make the state lottery a scam?

(Not that it isn't a scam, but not for this reason.)

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