Bitcoin Forum
March 19, 2024, 02:28:23 AM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 26.0 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: « 1 [2]  All
  Print  
Author Topic: Newest scam in town!  (Read 2371 times)
redtwitz
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 231
Merit: 100


View Profile
June 30, 2013, 04:22:36 AM
Last edit: June 30, 2013, 06:23:27 PM by redtwitz
 #21

There are 210=1024 different possible outcomes when flipping a coin 10 times. If that coin is fair, the outcomes will be distributed proportionally to the values of the eleventh row of the Pascal triangle, that is, proportional to:

Code:
1 10 45 120 210 252 210 120 45 10 1

This means that if you repeat this game 1024 times, the expected outcome is 1 time all heads, 10 times 9 heads and 1 tail, 45 times 8 heads and 2 tails, etc.

On Rippleflip, you lose your entire bet if you get 4 heads (or whatever they call it) and 6 tails or vice versa. I agree with you that recovering half of your bet isn't exactly winning, so you also lose if you get 5 heads and 5 tails.

That means that in every game there's a chance of (210 + 252 + 210) / 1024 = 672 / 1024 = 0.65625 = 65.625 % of losing.

If you play 8 times in a row (like you did), you'll lose all 8 times with probability 0.656258 = 0.03439969 = 3.439969 %. That sound unlikely, but statistically 1 out of every 1 / 0.03439969 = 29 customers will lose his first 8 games in a row.
1710815303
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1710815303

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1710815303
Reply with quote  #2

1710815303
Report to moderator
1710815303
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1710815303

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1710815303
Reply with quote  #2

1710815303
Report to moderator
1710815303
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1710815303

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1710815303
Reply with quote  #2

1710815303
Report to moderator
You can see the statistics of your reports to moderators on the "Report to moderator" pages.
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
1710815303
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1710815303

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1710815303
Reply with quote  #2

1710815303
Report to moderator
1710815303
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1710815303

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1710815303
Reply with quote  #2

1710815303
Report to moderator
1710815303
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1710815303

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1710815303
Reply with quote  #2

1710815303
Report to moderator
STT
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3850
Merit: 1408


Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform


View Profile WWW
June 30, 2013, 05:10:00 AM
 #22

Probably the best answer your'll ever get.   Pascal was the Don   Cool

Goto a local fair and the stalls are using really old laws of probability to make an easy win over you.  I remember seeing the Pascal triangle as a game several times & it wins $50 if you reach that far end  1 in 1024 chance event


I thought some sort of error in probability where it became exploitable would be the downfall of BTC somehow but apparently not so far

..Stake.com..   ▄████████████████████████████████████▄
   ██ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄            ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██  ▄████▄
   ██ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██████████ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██  ██████
   ██ ██████████ ██      ██ ██████████ ██   ▀██▀
   ██ ██      ██ ██████  ██ ██      ██ ██    ██
   ██ ██████  ██ █████  ███ ██████  ██ ████▄ ██
   ██ █████  ███ ████  ████ █████  ███ ████████
   ██ ████  ████ ██████████ ████  ████ ████▀
   ██ ██████████ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██████████ ██
   ██            ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀            ██ 
   ▀█████████▀ ▄████████████▄ ▀█████████▀
  ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄███  ██  ██  ███▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
 ██████████████████████████████████████████
▄▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▄
█  ▄▀▄             █▀▀█▀▄▄
█  █▀█             █  ▐  ▐▌
█       ▄██▄       █  ▌  █
█     ▄██████▄     █  ▌ ▐▌
█    ██████████    █ ▐  █
█   ▐██████████▌   █ ▐ ▐▌
█    ▀▀██████▀▀    █ ▌ █
█     ▄▄▄██▄▄▄     █ ▌▐▌
█                  █▐ █
█                  █▐▐▌
█                  █▐█
▀▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▀█
▄▄█████████▄▄
▄██▀▀▀▀█████▀▀▀▀██▄
▄█▀       ▐█▌       ▀█▄
██         ▐█▌         ██
████▄     ▄█████▄     ▄████
████████▄███████████▄████████
███▀    █████████████    ▀███
██       ███████████       ██
▀█▄       █████████       ▄█▀
▀█▄    ▄██▀▀▀▀▀▀▀██▄  ▄▄▄█▀
▀███████         ███████▀
▀█████▄       ▄█████▀
▀▀▀███▄▄▄███▀▀▀
..PLAY NOW..
Rippleflip.com
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 36
Merit: 0



View Profile WWW
June 30, 2013, 08:54:41 AM
 #23

There are 210=1024 different possible outcomes when flipping a coin 10 times. If that coin is fair, the outcomes will be distributed proportionally to the values of the eleventh row of the Pascal triangle, that is, proportional to:

Code:
1 10 45 120 210 252 210 120 45 10 1

This means that if you repeat this game 1024 times, the expected outcome is 1 time all heads, 10 times 9 heads and 1 tail, 45 times 8 heads and 2 tails, etc.

On Rippleflip, you lose your entire bet if you get 4 heads (or whatever they call it) and 6 tails or vice versa. I agree with you that recovering half of your bet isn't exactly winning, so you also lose if you get 5 heads and 5 tails.

That means that in every game there's a chance of (210 + 252 + 210) / 1024 = 672 / 1024 = 0.65625 = 65.625 % of losing.

If you play 8 times in a row (like you did), you'll lose all 8 times with probability 0.656258=0.03439969=3.439969 %. That sound unlikely, but statistically 1 out of every 1 / 0.03439969 = 29 customers will lose his first 8 games in a row.

I would like to correct you that when indeed the 5/5 wins half of the bet, the real chances for losing are 53.32%
Our house edge is ~1.85% as we've stated at Rippleflip.com. For comparison, that is lower than for example SD.
redtwitz
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 231
Merit: 100


View Profile
June 30, 2013, 06:46:05 PM
 #24

Our house edge is ~1.85% as we've stated at Rippleflip.com. For comparison, that is lower than for example SD.

I'm not arguing that. I did the math. For anyone who's interested:

Code:
Multiplicator|Probability|Expected earnings
-------------+-----------+-----------------
     17      |    2/1024 |      34/1024
      7      |   20/1024 |     140/1024
      3      |   45/1024 |     135/1024
      2      |  285/1024 |     570/1024
     1/2     |  252/1024 |     126/1024
      0      |  420/1024 |       0/1024
-------------+-----------+-----------------
     SUM       1024/1024      1005/1024

Since the expected earnings are 1005 / 1024 of your bet, the house's edge is (1024 - 1005) / 1024 = 19 / 1024 = 0.018554687 = 1.8554687 %.

I would like to correct you that when indeed the 5/5 wins half of the bet, the real chances for losing are 53.32%

The probability of losing your entire bet is 41.02 % and the probability of losing half of it is 24.61 %. Therefore, the probability of losing at least part of your bet is 65.63 %. That's all that I'm saying.

I think the math behind your 53.32 % is flawed; you're mixing probability and expected value here.
gogxmagog
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1456
Merit: 1009

Ad maiora!


View Profile
June 30, 2013, 11:39:56 PM
 #25

the ponies have been scamming me for years.
Rippleflip.com
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 36
Merit: 0



View Profile WWW
July 01, 2013, 06:32:27 AM
 #26

Our house edge is ~1.85% as we've stated at Rippleflip.com. For comparison, that is lower than for example SD.

I'm not arguing that. I did the math. For anyone who's interested:

Code:
Multiplicator|Probability|Expected earnings
-------------+-----------+-----------------
     17      |    2/1024 |      34/1024
      7      |   20/1024 |     140/1024
      3      |   45/1024 |     135/1024
      2      |  285/1024 |     570/1024
     1/2     |  252/1024 |     126/1024
      0      |  420/1024 |       0/1024
-------------+-----------+-----------------
     SUM       1024/1024      1005/1024

Since the expected earnings are 1005 / 1024 of your bet, the house's edge is (1024 - 1005) / 1024 = 19 / 1024 = 0.018554687 = 1.8554687 %.

I would like to correct you that when indeed the 5/5 wins half of the bet, the real chances for losing are 53.32%

The probability of losing your entire bet is 41.02 % and the probability of losing half of it is 24.61 %. Therefore, the probability of losing at least part of your bet is 65.63 %. That's all that I'm saying.

I think the math behind your 53.32 % is flawed; you're mixing probability and expected value here.

You're correct.
MPOE-PR
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 756
Merit: 522



View Profile
July 01, 2013, 02:35:19 PM
 #27

Our house edge is ~1.85% as we've stated at Rippleflip.com. For comparison, that is lower than for example SD.

I'm not arguing that. I did the math. For anyone who's interested:

Code:
Multiplicator|Probability|Expected earnings
-------------+-----------+-----------------
     17      |    2/1024 |      34/1024
      7      |   20/1024 |     140/1024
      3      |   45/1024 |     135/1024
      2      |  285/1024 |     570/1024
     1/2     |  252/1024 |     126/1024
      0      |  420/1024 |       0/1024
-------------+-----------+-----------------
     SUM       1024/1024      1005/1024

Since the expected earnings are 1005 / 1024 of your bet, the house's edge is (1024 - 1005) / 1024 = 19 / 1024 = 0.018554687 = 1.8554687 %.

I would like to correct you that when indeed the 5/5 wins half of the bet, the real chances for losing are 53.32%

The probability of losing your entire bet is 41.02 % and the probability of losing half of it is 24.61 %. Therefore, the probability of losing at least part of your bet is 65.63 %. That's all that I'm saying.

I think the math behind your 53.32 % is flawed; you're mixing probability and expected value here.

So exactly what is the scam, I don't get it. Your chances to lose your first 5000 state lottery tickets are pretty good, does this make the state lottery a scam?

(Not that it isn't a scam, but not for this reason.)

My Credentials  | THE BTC Stock Exchange | I have my very own anthology! | Use bitcointa.lk, it's like this one but better.
Pages: « 1 [2]  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!