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Author Topic: Miners quitting en masse -- so it begins.  (Read 10734 times)
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July 01, 2011, 12:14:09 AM
 #41

Angelus, what crack are you smoking?  Network power is up to 14TH (+3 TH since yesterday alone) and it's been going up steadily for a while.  So, maybe you're seeing a few people here and there drop out, but there's certainly no 'en masse' trend of people leaving.

Why do you keep trolling with posts telling people how awful mining is?  If it's that awful, why are still here and doing it yourself? Smiley
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July 01, 2011, 12:22:04 AM
 #42

Angelus, what crack are you smoking?  Network power is up to 14TH (+3 TH since yesterday alone) and it's been going up steadily for a while.  So, maybe you're seeing a few people here and there drop out, but there's certainly no 'en masse' trend of people leaving.

Why do you keep trolling with posts telling people how awful mining is?  If it's that awful, why are still here and doing it yourself? Smiley

+3 TH!!! on this one.. 
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July 01, 2011, 12:24:17 AM
 #43

It's sad that so many of you kids can't have an intelligent discussion. Oh well.

My fault for looking in the wrong place.

At any rate, I've never seen a more textbook case of "shoot the messenger".

No one is finding fault with anything I said -- just me personally.

Hey, I'm sorry if your life is stressful, if your mining profits have gone down, if you don't know what to do at this point -- but don't blame me. It isn't my fault.

Matthew


I think your OP was excellent.
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July 01, 2011, 12:32:35 AM
 #44

Angelus, what crack are you smoking?  Network power is up to 14TH (+3 TH since yesterday alone) and it's been going up steadily for a while.  So, maybe you're seeing a few people here and there drop out, but there's certainly no 'en masse' trend of people leaving.
TWO ADS IN THE CLASSIFIEDS FOR 6990s




MINERS QUITTING EN MASSE

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July 01, 2011, 12:40:40 AM
 #45

I didn't mean to come off as a dink in my post Angelus, I'm not disputing the fact that it's getting more difficult and you'll probably see people start dropping by the wayside, but I don't believe that's happening 'en masse' yet.
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July 01, 2011, 12:41:35 AM
 #46

Some miners are quitting. Others are adding capacity or just starting.

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July 01, 2011, 01:41:14 AM
 #47

When we see used gpus being sold everywhere for 1/2 price, then we can conclude miners are quitting en masse


keep on digging.. err crunching those hashes Cool
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July 01, 2011, 02:31:12 AM
 #48

This OP is such a huge attention whore.

I really hope I can start mining at a loss soon, because I literally will at this point just to get under his skin.
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July 01, 2011, 03:19:22 AM
 #49

When we see used gpus being sold everywhere for 1/2 price, then we can conclude miners are quitting en masse

Bitcoin miners massively overestimate their influence on the ATI GPU market.  At most, it's 1% of ATI's sales.  GPUs are mainly used for displaying graphics, playing games, and doing scientific computations.  Bitcoin is a mere rounding error in the overall scheme of things.  Even if every miner quit tomorrow we wouldn't see cards being sold off for half price.

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July 01, 2011, 03:41:39 AM
 #50

Bitcoin miners massively overestimate their influence on the ATI GPU market.  At most, it's 1% of ATI's sales.  GPUs are mainly used for displaying graphics, playing games, and doing scientific computations.  Bitcoin is a mere rounding error in the overall scheme of things.  Even if every miner quit tomorrow we wouldn't see cards being sold off for half price.

That's a ridiculous statement.  Newegg and Amazon didn't have any issues keeping 5830s in stock for quite some time before the bitcoin article came out on Yahoo at the beginning of this month.  If mining stopped tomorrow, there would be a whole lot of GPUs on ebay...

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July 01, 2011, 03:43:21 AM
 #51

graphics card prices aren't going to drop below what the typical gamer market price is..

billion dollar chip fabs didnt run production lines basing demand for their products on a couple thousand bitcoin miners.

so u can drop the fantasy that cards are going to go for 'half price'.

all bitcoin mining did was increase demand for a market that already had a large existing demand to begin with.. when it disappears the world doesnt explode and amd doesnt shut down their factories..

the total number of 5830's in existence today is the same as it was before, and the total number of gamers buying them today is the same as it was before.

Whether newegg is selling them or some guy on ebay, it doesnt matter.. the supply is the same and the demand is the same..  people far more informed with the market data figured out those performance/price points long ago

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July 01, 2011, 03:51:09 AM
 #52

Angelus, what crack are you smoking?  Network power is up to 14TH (+3 TH since yesterday alone) and it's been going up steadily for a while.  So, maybe you're seeing a few people here and there drop out, but there's certainly no 'en masse' trend of people leaving.

Why do you keep trolling with posts telling people how awful mining is?  If it's that awful, why are still here and doing it yourself? Smiley

Well you see, over on the wrong side of the tracks.... err, nevermind.

Seriously though, I noticed this ever since the last difficulty increase. We used to have just a couple guys (mostly scammers) selling a few 6990s in the Goods (formerly "Selling") subforum.
Now, we have guys selling entire farms -- and not one or two, but several. And several more "feeling things out" before some of them move on to eBay to actually sell the hardware.

In addition, several of them spoke up as to their reasons -- which gave me the material for my original post.

Obviously we're all still mining or we wouldn't be here. I think that's obvious. Everyone likes mining for different reasons, and has a different situation.

I like to have philosophical (speculative) conversations. I'm sure others do too. I'm a big picture sort. I was reading the most famous "housing bubble blog" in 2007 and I believed it was a bubble then. I watched as the blog owner basically had to shut down his blog, because it became glaringly obvious at some point that the bubble had burst, and he was sick of posting all the bad real estate news. Not that I'm saying "mining is over" or anything, but it HAS changed from the situation in early June. Not much difference for most people (just less profit), but we all have to keep on our toes, and keep aware of the current reality if we're to make the best decisions.

BTW, if I were selfish I'd be talking up mining like a bad commercial -- more used GPUs for the aftermarket  Grin
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July 01, 2011, 04:22:02 AM
 #53

graphics card prices aren't going to drop below what the typical gamer market price is..

billion dollar chip fabs didnt run production lines basing demand for their products on a couple thousand bitcoin miners.

so u can drop the fantasy that cards are going to go for 'half price'.

all bitcoin mining did was increase demand for a market that already had a large existing demand to begin with.. when it disappears the world doesnt explode and amd doesnt shut down their factories..

the total number of 5830's in existence today is the same as it was before, and the total number of gamers buying them today is the same as it was before.

Whether newegg is selling them or some guy on ebay, it doesnt matter.. the supply is the same and the demand is the same..  people far more informed with the market data figured out those performance/price points long ago
Well, let's do some calculations...

The network currently consists of 14 TH/s.

A 5850 will do 325MH/s with a light overclock.

That'd be 43,076 5850's to match the current network speed.
Or 53,846 5830's.
Or 37,333 5870's.

These are not insignificant numbers.

Now I know, not everyone who is mining bought new hardware to mine with.  But really, you only have to look at ebay to see proof that mining really IS having a big effect on ATI video card prices.  There are far better gaming cards than the 5870 out there, and yet, the 5870 is selling for much more than them on ebay.  What other explanation could there be other than miners are buying them up so fast as to actually affect the price point (which you claim isn't possible)?

And yes, if bitcoin does suddenly drop in value, permanently, and 43000 video cards have to be unloaded, they probably will be going for half of what they are going for today.
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July 01, 2011, 05:07:25 AM
 #54

GPUs are mainly used for displaying graphics, playing games, and doing scientific computations.  Bitcoin is a mere rounding error in the overall scheme of things.  Even if every miner quit tomorrow we wouldn't see cards being sold off for half price.
Then howcome we can buy nVidia cards (even the GTX 590) every day all day?

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July 01, 2011, 06:23:14 AM
 #55

I've been around here for about a month and a half and signed up recently.  I've spent untold hours reading posts here.

It amazes me how many of you consistently attack the OP (you rarely attack his arguments, you generally just attack him).  We're all entitled to our opinions (isn't that kinda the point of forums) and most of what the OP says is spot on, at least IMO.  Yeah, he's still buying gear, but mostly he is saying he's trying to do it smartly at the right price.  What's wrong with that?  And to whomever pointed out that he made an offer on one of the cards from the farm someone is selling.  So what.  The OP offered what he thought was a fair price for the card, the seller refused.  If the seller thought it was a lowball offer, don't accept it and move on. 

And btw, I also think $160 for a 5830 is ridiculous.  Apparently most of the people on this board are blind optimists, at least when it comes to bitcoin.  The fact of the matter is difficulty is increasing, will continue to do so, and it's a race to the bottom.  If you wish to continue adding gear, especially at inflated prices (IMO), more power to you.  I respect your opinion just as much as I respect the OP's.  To each their own.

Anyways, flame on boys!

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July 01, 2011, 06:38:46 AM
 #56

GPUs are mainly used for displaying graphics, playing games, and doing scientific computations.  Bitcoin is a mere rounding error in the overall scheme of things.  Even if every miner quit tomorrow we wouldn't see cards being sold off for half price.
Then howcome we can buy nVidia cards (even the GTX 590) every day all day?

I think that's a logistics phenomenon because the 5XXX series are discontinued with a couple other things playing into it. The 5830 is a good example: cards are being sold out instantly from popular sellers, like newegg, and those cards are being used for bitcoin mining or resale on Ebay, where the price is ~$40 higher than the purchase price. Since the 5830 is not being produced anymore, the stock problems are more visible. Keep in mind that gamers are still in the market for the same cards used by mining, especially with 1GB memroy and a very low price tag compared to top-of-the-line 6990's.

Yes bitcoin is having effects on cards that are profitable for mining, which nVidia is not known for, but bitcoin is still a small market of GPU consumers. With the Ebay scalpers and Bitcoin miners, I think the in-stock problems can be explained with those groups.
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July 01, 2011, 06:40:55 AM
 #57

Now I know, not everyone who is mining bought new hardware to mine with.  But really, you only have to look at ebay to see proof that mining really IS having a big effect on ATI video card prices.  There are far better gaming cards than the 5870 out there, and yet, the 5870 is selling for much more than them on ebay.  What other explanation could there be other than miners are buying them up so fast as to actually affect the price point (which you claim isn't possible)?

Sure, mining is affecting *certain* video card prices.  All of which are essentially out of production (except the Sapphire Xtreme series, AFAIK).  You have a situation were free money (or at least extremely optimistic money) is chasing an extremely limited supply.  Not too much unlike what created the housing bubble.  

I agree with you that it is in fact affecting prices for the higher end of the 5xxx line.  That said, I do not *currently* see it affecting the 6xxx line at all, and I doubt it will until the 6xxx line goes out of production and inventories have been depleted.

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July 01, 2011, 06:45:19 AM
 #58

By the time 6XXX are out of production, we might have cheap and efficient FPGA.
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July 01, 2011, 06:46:08 AM
 #59

Now seriously, given that network calc speed is 14TH and an overclocked 5970 does ~700MH/s, all it takes is 20.000 5970s. Surely, AMD and licensees produce significantly more than that.

Quote
Now I know, not everyone who is mining bought new hardware to mine with.  But really, you only have to look at ebay to see proof that mining really IS having a big effect on ATI video card prices.  There are far better gaming cards than the 5870 out there, and yet, the 5870 is selling for much more than them on ebay.  What other explanation could there be other than miners are buying them up so fast as to actually affect the price point (which you claim isn't possible)?

Most of those wonderful gaming cards does not have or have poor DP capabilities. 5870 has rather decent ones. The GPGPU niche is not about integer ops only, in fact most if it is not.

Quote
That's a ridiculous statement.  Newegg and Amazon didn't have any issues keeping 5830s in stock for quite some time before the bitcoin article came out on Yahoo at the beginning of this month.  If mining stopped tomorrow, there would be a whole lot of GPUs on ebay...

The amount of 5830s on newegg and ebay is a ridiculous indicator. This card is inadequate for today's gaming and GPGPU needs. 5830 being very energy-effective card is a legend spread by people that have no idea what they are talking about. Yes, pricewise they are a deal, until you take into account the costs of additional pcie slots. So yes, I kinda start to believe bitcoin actually influence the GPU market in a way. Not the whole AMD GPU market, but e.g the old 5830s one Smiley Likewise, if I had some old 5770s covered in dust in the warehouse, I would spread rumors about 5770s being much more efficient (and they actually _are_ in terms of MH/W and likely price/perf as compared to 5830).
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July 01, 2011, 06:46:37 AM
 #60

By the time 6XXX are out of production, we might have cheap and efficient FPGA.

Or ASIC.

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