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Author Topic: Why $17??  (Read 12342 times)
lemonginger
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June 30, 2011, 05:25:18 PM
 #41

cost of a btc has nothing to do with cost to mine it. mining difficulty will naturally seek an equilibrium based on worth of btc. worth of btc is determined by demand for them (increase of supply is set up to remain known) - nothing more, nothing less. not sure why this fallacy is repeated over and over again on these boards.

also not sure how a few days of no fluctuation equals "stability" in a currency that has still increased many times in value over the past 30 days, much less the past year. Give me three months with no more than +-1% per day fluctuations and no greater than +-5% fluctuations overall and we can start talking about price stability.
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June 30, 2011, 05:45:44 PM
 #42

People were freaking out when the price was jumping around and the market was very volatile, now people are freaking out that the price is too stable...
So effin true Cheesy

Taking a look at the charts:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigHourlyzvztgSzbgBzm1g10zm2g25zi1gMACDzi2gRSIzi3gSStoch

Current trading volumes are down, on par with early/late may, we're in between cycles at the moment, and those who are playing are being rightly conservative....why just buy in when you can hang out for a better deal.

Also...people....bubble mentality! I know we all share great confidence in the idea, but bitcoin is as liable to fall as it is to rise.....you'll never know when it's as good as it gets until after.
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June 30, 2011, 05:46:56 PM
 #43

Come on, someone push it up to 17.25!

15UFyv6kfWgq83Pp3yhXPr8rknv9m6581W
proudhon
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June 30, 2011, 06:20:57 PM
 #44

Come on, someone push it up to 17.25!

Not going to happen.  In all likelihood, the market is being manipulated down by people with the money/BTC to do it.  My prediction is further exchange rate decreases as they buy the bitcoins that scared sellers sell to them and subsequently move their flypaper bids even lower.
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June 30, 2011, 06:30:52 PM
 #45


My prediction is further exchange rate decreases as they buy the bitcoins that scared sellers sell to them and subsequently move their flypaper bids even lower.

Quite possibly the case. However, I think its quite clear to most people by now that BTC is quite a robust little bugger that has a potential value many times higher than its current rate of exchange, and so owners of the coin are just as happy to sit this out. I doubt BTC value is going to drop anytime soon so I think owners of BTC have nothing to fear and nothing to lose. Of course, this isnt the case for potential issue buyers face playing this game which is new buyers moving into the market and buying up. This of course will raise the price. Then we will see the fence sitters will rush in too to get coins before they go too high, increasing the price even further, and its game on.

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TiagoTiago
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June 30, 2011, 06:35:47 PM
 #46

Let's go for 100 bucks before X-Mass, come on peeps!!!!!! Cheesy

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June 30, 2011, 06:41:43 PM
 #47


My prediction is further exchange rate decreases as they buy the bitcoins that scared sellers sell to them and subsequently move their flypaper bids even lower.

Quite possibly the case. However, I think its quite clear to most people by now that BTC is quite a robust little bugger that has a potential value many times higher than its current rate of exchange, and so owners of the coin are just as happy to sit this out. I doubt BTC value is going to drop anytime soon so I think owners of BTC have nothing to fear and nothing to lose. Of course, this isnt the case for potential issue buyers face playing this game which is new buyers will moving into the market and buying up. This of course will raise the price. Then we will see the fence sitters will rush in too to get coins before they go too high, increasing the price even further, and its game on.

But, wait, why should we expect new buyers to buy up into the asks?  If they have a bit of sense they'll look at the past few days of trade data and realize that sellers are selling down into the buys, so if they really, really want some bitcoins they don't need to attack the asks as they can simply place a lower bid which will likely get filled.  Thus, they spend less than if they had bought into the asks.  But, honestly, seeing this picture, why would they be itching to put their money in in the first place, at least right now?  I'm not detecting a lot of confidence in bitcoin these days, unfortunately.  Those large bids, and there are a lot of them, are pulling the price down, and chances are good the price is going to go (much?) lower than it is now.  

If I really wanted bitcoins right now, after having observed the last few days, I'd be reasonably confident taking the risk of waiting even longer to buy because it looks like more downward movement is in the cards.  People are just looking at the bid/ask graphs and seeing that there's more money on the visible bids side than the visible ask side.  That's true.  But you've also got to look at what's going on on the ground, and that paints the opposite picture from merely looking at the graph.  I'm not a buyer right now, so, honestly, I hope I'm wrong, but things don't look good for those of us who would like to see the value go up.
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June 30, 2011, 07:03:14 PM
 #48

Most members of the crisis got free transaction fees.


If it goes up 10 cents, they profit. So they aren't sitting on their investment as long. They are buying and selling at the same time, kind of like playing pong with your own two hands.

For example: you place 100 buy orders to the left side of the midpoint, and 100 sell orders on the right side.

Let the computer do all the work.
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June 30, 2011, 07:07:01 PM
 #49


I'm disappointed in you guys.
Bitcoin Swami
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June 30, 2011, 07:12:35 PM
 #50


I'm disappointed in you guys.

lol +1
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June 30, 2011, 07:15:20 PM
 #51

17 is about the number of $-cents a bitcoin is worth and should be traded at, so multiply that by 100 for the bitcoin-mania, and there you go  Grin
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June 30, 2011, 07:18:52 PM
 #52

I'll tell you what will drive up the price.  One thing:  Increasing the perceived likelihood that Bitcoin will have a long-term value as a currency.

If there are news stories, it will generate interest.  And people will buy in.
If there is a true value as a currency, people will "give it a try".

So get off your butts and start getting Bitcoins accepted by merchants!!!!


Don't think that increasing mining difficulty will increase the price - that's crazy talk.  The ONLY way that increased mining difficulty could possibly have a positive impact is if the miners say "It took me $20 to generate each Bitcoin, and I refuse to sell at a loss, therefore I'm not selling."  (We're seeing this in the housing market right now, but it's more likely in the housing market because people borrow money to buy their houses, and if they are "underwater" with their mortgage and they sell, then they have to come up with the cash difference.   I doubt that anyone is taking out loans that are secured by bitcoin generation.)

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June 30, 2011, 07:19:57 PM
 #53

This thread is pure art.

I can't even count. "Market manipulation" is always a great shout, though kind of a classic and thus not very innovative. "Mining cost determines price!" is pretty much a meme now, and is the best replacement for "DERP" I've seen so far. But! A competitor appears! "Da Seller wants to push da price down!" Cheesy

Wait, wait... one more. "a big hoarder who decided to cash out at 17$" ... whoooaaa big hoarder made the volume go... uh... what volume?

Man, I hope this is the work of trolls... I hope it for the sake of humanity.
proudhon
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June 30, 2011, 07:23:59 PM
 #54

This thread is pure art.

I can't even count. "Market manipulation" is always a great shout, though kind of a classic and thus not very innovative. "Mining cost determines price!" is pretty much a meme now, and is the best replacement for "DERP" I've seen so far. But! A competitor appears! "Da Seller wants to push da price down!" Cheesy

Wait, wait... one more. "a big hoarder who decided to cash out at 17$" ... whoooaaa big hoarder made the volume go... uh... what volume?

Man, I hope this is the work of trolls... I hope it for the sake of humanity.

It's not as if the volume is tiny relative to the bitcoin economy.  Bitcoin charts shows that over 10,000 bitcoins have swapped around in the last 20 hours.  Obviously we've seen much more than that, but it's not like the volume is sooooo low.  Also, who said "sellers want to push the price down"?
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June 30, 2011, 07:34:03 PM
 #55

The FED has put a control loop on the Bitcoin price. That's what they do right... stabalize currency. :-)
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June 30, 2011, 07:41:34 PM
 #56

This thread is pure art.

I can't even count. "Market manipulation" is always a great shout, though kind of a classic and thus not very innovative. "Mining cost determines price!" is pretty much a meme now, and is the best replacement for "DERP" I've seen so far. But! A competitor appears! "Da Seller wants to push da price down!" Cheesy

Wait, wait... one more. "a big hoarder who decided to cash out at 17$" ... whoooaaa big hoarder made the volume go... uh... what volume?

Man, I hope this is the work of trolls... I hope it for the sake of humanity.

+1
it is definitely funny to read those wild theories

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June 30, 2011, 07:56:30 PM
 #57

I'll explain what is going on a little later. At the moment, its top secret Smiley
Joke?
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June 30, 2011, 08:21:28 PM
 #58

Most members of the crisis got free transaction fees.


If it goes up 10 cents, they profit. So they aren't sitting on their investment as long. They are buying and selling at the same time, kind of like playing pong with your own two hands.

For example: you place 100 buy orders to the left side of the midpoint, and 100 sell orders on the right side.

Let the computer do all the work.

This is what I meant by an "ideal" market. With zero commissions for certain active traders, the spreads are very narrow because market making as you describe it can return a profit, e.g. 0.001 BTC on tiny spreads.  The spread should widen only when volatility increases, which according to market theory arises because of the sudden entrance of "informed" traders into the market, e.g. some merchant needing to unload 1000 BTC at market.
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June 30, 2011, 08:51:08 PM
 #59

Everybody and their mother injected money into their Mt. Gox account hoping to catch BTCs on the cheap during the crash expected after the Gox reopening. Since that didn't happen, nothing is happening. Everyone wants to obtain the "early adopter" position.

Proof that this is just a speculation circlejerk with no actual goods/services backing. And no more more money is coming in.
 

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June 30, 2011, 09:49:54 PM
 #60

cost of a btc has nothing to do with cost to mine it. mining difficulty will naturally seek an equilibrium based on worth of btc. worth of btc is determined by demand for them (increase of supply is set up to remain known) - nothing more, nothing less. not sure why this fallacy is repeated over and over again on these boards.

Not a fallacy. That's why.

Whilst the cost to mine a bitcoin is less than the price to sell one, there will be an incentive for people to start mining. Difficulty and even technological advances are irrelevant.

It's not only true of bitcoin, it's true of gold and very other natural scarce resource that I've looked at so far. Not precisely but certainly the same order of magnitude.

Price of a fish ~= Cost to get that fish on your diner table.
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