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Author Topic: Why price is between 16 and 17 dollars per BTC.  (Read 1923 times)
mushy99999
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June 30, 2011, 10:32:01 PM
 #21

Ok, here comes the rebound.
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mushy99999
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June 30, 2011, 10:34:45 PM
 #22

I had a play with MTGOX the other day. Managed to sell 9BTC for $17 each. Didnt relise how much there commision is so only ended up getting $16.8 for the each which pee'ed me off a bit so I made a buy order for 9BTC for 16.4 each which acutrally bought them all back so iv got all my coins back and 3 dollars in my account. Going to just hold on to my BTC now untill the mining difficultly goes right up at which point the price should go up too.

Yes, commissions need to be factored in. I made that mistake years ago on the real exchanges and lost quite a bit. Just forgot to take it into account. Mining difficulty is already priced in so you may be waiting longer than you think.
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June 30, 2011, 10:39:08 PM
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Whats up now?
bitebitebite
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June 30, 2011, 10:40:39 PM
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 Had an auto buy at 16.6... Lucky Im just playing at trading with under 10 coins or I'd be gutted (ofc would be watching if I was doing it for real  Smiley)
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June 30, 2011, 10:41:24 PM
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I had a play with MTGOX the other day. Managed to sell 9BTC for $17 each. Didnt relise how much there commision is so only ended up getting $16.8 for the each which pee'ed me off a bit so I made a buy order for 9BTC for 16.4 each which acutrally bought them all back so iv got all my coins back and 3 dollars in my account. Going to just hold on to my BTC now untill the mining difficultly goes right up at which point the price should go up too.

Just make sure you don't fall into the trap of correlation and causality. Price and difficulty tend to follow each other (within certain boundaries) but difficulty does not necessarily imply price. More likely it's the other way 'round - the more you can make per BTC by mining, the fewer BTC you have to make for it to be profitable. So far prices have only gone up over any reasonable span of time and difficulty has followed suit. At some point it will occur that price no longer justifies difficulty and rather than price moving up to accommodate as you seem to predict, people will stop mining and difficulty will move down.

Price increases because of the market, difficulty increases to follow price, so long as mining remains profitable. I made the mistake of confusing the two at the beginning myself, it's far too easy a mistake to make.

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June 30, 2011, 10:41:45 PM
 #26

I had a play with MTGOX the other day. Managed to sell 9BTC for $17 each. Didnt relise how much there commision is so only ended up getting $16.8 for the each which pee'ed me off a bit so I made a buy order for 9BTC for 16.4 each which acutrally bought them all back so iv got all my coins back and 3 dollars in my account. Going to just hold on to my BTC now untill the mining difficultly goes right up at which point the price should go up too.

Yes, commissions need to be factored in. I made that mistake years ago on the real exchanges and lost quite a bit. Just forgot to take it into account. Mining difficulty is already priced in so you may be waiting longer than you think.


Yeah I'm aware that it might take awhile, No where supports transferring BTC to my currency anyway unless im willing to pay $45 for a international transfer. So im just hoping BTC will take off and become supported in more places at which point it will probably sky rocket like it did not long ago.

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June 30, 2011, 10:42:54 PM
 #27

Of course, realistically the activity of miners does have *some* effect on price, so it's more likely a "tangled hierarchy" than a direct causal relationship... Still, the effect is much stronger in one direction than the other  Grin

mushy99999
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June 30, 2011, 10:47:52 PM
 #28

I had a play with MTGOX the other day. Managed to sell 9BTC for $17 each. Didnt relise how much there commision is so only ended up getting $16.8 for the each which pee'ed me off a bit so I made a buy order for 9BTC for 16.4 each which acutrally bought them all back so iv got all my coins back and 3 dollars in my account. Going to just hold on to my BTC now untill the mining difficultly goes right up at which point the price should go up too.

Just make sure you don't fall into the trap of correlation and causality. Price and difficulty tend to follow each other (within certain boundaries) but difficulty does not necessarily imply price. More likely it's the other way 'round - the more you can make per BTC by mining, the fewer BTC you have to make for it to be profitable. So far prices have only gone up over any reasonable span of time and difficulty has followed suit. At some point it will occur that price no longer justifies difficulty and rather than price moving up to accommodate as you seem to predict, people will stop mining and difficulty will move down.

Price increases because of the market, difficulty increases to follow price, so long as mining remains profitable. I made the mistake of confusing the two at the beginning myself, it's far too easy a mistake to make.

Yes, quite right. As I am holding on to a lot of BTC, I am hoping that price increases but it's a gamble. It could go either way.
mushy99999
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June 30, 2011, 10:50:13 PM
 #29

I had a play with MTGOX the other day. Managed to sell 9BTC for $17 each. Didnt relise how much there commision is so only ended up getting $16.8 for the each which pee'ed me off a bit so I made a buy order for 9BTC for 16.4 each which acutrally bought them all back so iv got all my coins back and 3 dollars in my account. Going to just hold on to my BTC now untill the mining difficultly goes right up at which point the price should go up too.

Just make sure you don't fall into the trap of correlation and causality. Price and difficulty tend to follow each other (within certain boundaries) but difficulty does not necessarily imply price. More likely it's the other way 'round - the more you can make per BTC by mining, the fewer BTC you have to make for it to be profitable. So far prices have only gone up over any reasonable span of time and difficulty has followed suit. At some point it will occur that price no longer justifies difficulty and rather than price moving up to accommodate as you seem to predict, people will stop mining and difficulty will move down.

Price increases because of the market, difficulty increases to follow price, so long as mining remains profitable. I made the mistake of confusing the two at the beginning myself, it's far too easy a mistake to make.

Yes, quite right. As I am holding on to a lot of BTC, I am hoping that price increases but it's a gamble. It could go either way.

Maybe a neural net can make some sense of the relationships. I'm considering programming one up. All the data is there...
itxbc
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June 30, 2011, 10:53:39 PM
 #30

With all the upheaval the past few days, I've been surprised at the stability of BTC on the markets. And even more impressive was the resilience of the market when someone(s) just unloaded 13K BTC and the price dropped less than $1. You'd expect a bigger drop than that.

Lets see how things settle out over the next few hours
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