Well, IDK, it really depends on how many coins the rich fucker who threw out the initial dumps has. When he runs out, or gets bored, he'll stop throwing millions of dollars of our buy orders to the coyotes. Bid pressure is weak right now so he has opportunity. When there's opportunity, well... Problem is, you shoot the price too low, and you can't expect it to recover. Hoarders naturally provide liquidity per Fekete (Everyone has a price) but they're usually too addicted to profit to accept their current gains so they won't short something to death.
And this is not somebody who's "given up on Bitcoin and cashed out" or else they wouldn't have picked possibly the
least profitable method in existence to cash out. The behavior suggests it is, yes, someone trying to make money via moving price. Surprised? You shouldn't be.
This interpretation also suggests that this is about as much as we'll see in terms of downward movement ----
but, while it is easy to interpret the behavior, it is not easy to interpret the quality of judgement behind the behavior, so I wouldn't put much weight on any predictions regarding WHEN that behavior will temporarily cease. Just because the behavior suggest a trader or trader(s) who aren't interested in shorting to mid-term death, doesn't mean they will actually have the judgement in regards to "how much is too much for a speedy recovery." People don't short things 95% to wait 6 months for a gain when they can short it 25% and wait 2 weeks. Sorry, folks, $20 is NOT likely unless the person/people behind those huge initial dumps of millions of $USD are completely off their rocker and have absolutely no idea what they're doing.
Where do you think we'd be if we hadn't seen those massive initial dumps? Probably still languishing at $120 give or take. Pointless question, I know, but concentrated positions behaving in this fashion isn't exactly "fundamentals changing." The presence of concentrated positions that can initiate massive dumps via a huge market order (i.e. the LEAST profitable way to sell coins) is in itself a fundamental that must be taken into effect. We buy bitcoins knowing that there are people with ridiculous amounts that can crash the price $20 in one fell swoop. That they decide to do so on any given day is not a game-changer, it's just part of the game.
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