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Author Topic: Case for Bitcoin (Summary)? Bitcoin fundamentals?  (Read 64 times)
Roccker
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August 12, 2018, 10:52:19 PM
Last edit: September 21, 2018, 10:54:37 PM by Roccker
 #1

Hi there,
this is a work in progress, there probably exists something better than this
already (please point me to it),
i mainly wrote this for me – ‘Does Bitcoin have a good future’
Comments very much appreciated on any part (Any little part you like, you don't have to comment on the whole thing!),
pointers to websites or facts or posts that could add something very appreciated.
I also wrote some questions in the text.

PRO
- Scarce similar to gold (only 21 mio), but more usable to pay with
(and more and more in the future, everything going digital in the future)


- People who are unbanked now, but with a smartphone + crypto they can send and receive money;
People who have bank account can also send bitcoin without bank


- Credit card payments cost merchants 1-3% of the products prices.
Crypto can perhaps do this cheaper.

Also Remittances, sending money into other countries

https://youtu.be/EanJaFTffqA?t=3m3s - crypto cuts out middlemen
Teeka - new Storyline of Bitcoin: adding small part of crypto to portfolio reduces
volatility because crypto is not correlated to stocks; if big funds start to do this,
this is big


- Global money where the supply is not controlled by a FED but by mathematics ->
bitcoin is secure against hyperinflation (feds creating money,
inflating everyones money while inflating their debt away)
There are only 21 million bitcoins. (worldwide Ponzi Smiley)
-> when your native currency goes downhill (Cyprus, Argentinia, Zimbabwe, Turkey...),
demand in bitcoin there has big increase

82% of all the bitcoins are already existing.
Inflation right now is about 3.9%,
1.8% after the next halving on April 2020.
https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

2030: 20 million bitcoins will have been mined out of 21 million
https://ebrary.net/7954/education/bitcoin_2030  

2-4 million bitcoins have been lost forever,
meaning in 2030 there would be 18 million bitcoin (20-2)
http://uk.businessinsider.com/nearly-4-million-bitcoins-have-been-lost-forever-study-says-2017-11?IR=T


- How many people are already involved, how much possible room is there to grow:
There are only 2 million wallets with over 1000usd in Bitcoin in it.
(500 000 adresses with over 10k in bitcoin)
Only 5 million wallets that have over 100 usd in Bitcoin in it. ->
World population is 7500 million.
So only 0.07% of people of this world have over 100usd in Bitcoin.

-> ok, this is not right cause many people have no wallet but just
an account on an exchange.
Eg Coinbase has over 13 million accounts.
So if i guess 5mio wallets + 13 mio coinbase + 7 mio other exchanges = 25 million
-> 0,33% of people of this world have over 100usd in Bitcoin in this calculation

If it would be 100 million, then it would be 1,3% of the world population
having over 100usd in bitcoin.

900k reddit subscribers, 500k active addresses last 24 hours,
34k daily tweets, 34k github stars

https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html  
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/


-
Coinbase has 13 million accounts in November 2017
-> anyone knows how many accounts there are now?
Mayor online brokerage Charles Schwab has 11 million accounts
https://futurism.com/coinbase-users-surpasses-charles-schwab-brokerage-accounts/


-
~ 22 million bitcoin wallets (bitinfocharts.com)
Survey 5000 americans:
5 % of them hold bitcoin, that would be 16 million people in the US if accurate  
60% of them heard about bitcoin

Active users:
3-6 million active bitcoin users (not just holders) according to Cambridge university study
300 million paypal
700 million mastercard
1000 million visa

https://www.bitcoinmarketjournal.com/how-many-people-use-bitcoin/

There are 36 milion millionaires in the world right now
(https://www.inc.com/business-insider/36-million-millionaires-in-the-world-hold-46-percent-wealth-credit-suisse-global-wealth-report-2017.html ).
So it’s not possible for every millionaire to even own 1 bitcoin.

If only 5% of the money that is in gold would go into Bitcoin, 1 btc would be 25k usd
If bitcoin has 10% of gold market, bitcoin would be 50k
(https://www.bitcoinmarketjournal.com/bitcoin-price-predictions)
Since 2018 Bitcoin is regularly talked about on TV, on cnbc




- Bitcoin historical prices and returns:
https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/price  
+62000% in last 7 years -> that’s an average return of x% per year -
am too dumb to calculate average return per year, please help me
(1 dollar becomes 62000 over 7 years)

6600% in last 5 years -> am too dumb to calculate average return per year,
please help


-
https://www.bitcoinmarketjournal.com/bitcoin-vs-sp-500/
https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/price/  

S&P 500 had average yearly return of 10% since 1928;
17% since lthe last crash in 2009

Bitcoin returns:
600% approximately last year (1000 to 6000)
50 000% in last 5 years
400 000% since 2010 (0,05 usd to 20k usd)

This was done with random prices in the year (no highs or lows):
year, price of 1 btc, return of the last year
2010     0,1 usd
2011          1        x10
2012         5        x5
2013       10        x2
2014    100        x10
2015    300        x3
2016    400        x1.3
2017    800        x2
2018  7000        x9

This was done with random prices in the year (no highs or lows).
Is there any website that shows 'average price of year'?
(this is just a joke: 'trend' says next 4 years are slower years)

Market cap:
Bitcoin: 130 billion
Apple: about 1000 billion
Value of all Gold: 7000 billion
(https://www.bitcoinmarketjournal.com/bitcoin-price-predictions/)   
Money held in offshore tax heavens: 20 000 billion
S&P 500: 21 000 billion  


- Bitcoins longest time it took to make another All Time High ever:
1131 days, about 3 years from December 2013 to December 2016
-> more interesting would be ‘from old ATH to new ATH –
where was lowest price to buy?’ -> after 2013 ATH lowest price was about 1 year later
https://athda.com/Currencies/BTC/Page/all  


- VC investment in crypto companies (without ico’s):
2017 was the biggest year till 2017, 2018 is already bigger than whole of 2017;
1300 million dollars invested in the space so far totally.
https://techcrunch.com/2018/05/20/with-at-least-1-3-billion-invested-globally-in-2018-vc-funding-for-blockchain-blows-past-2017-totals/  


Money flowing into this is big, this industry is not going away.


Merchants accepting bitcoin: how is that going?





- Bitcoin looking good in 2 years (end 2020) - Developments:

- ETF
(they can postpone deciding on the good ETF till February 2019 I think)

- Lightning
(What is missing? A wallet? Is there a timeline?)

- Halving
(May 2020 – https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/ )

- Longest time to reach old ATHagain was 2 years so far
(dec 2014 – dec 2016, at about 1000usd)

Furthermore Tether seems to really have it’s usd amount in banks.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/tether-has-enough-usd-to-back-tokens-says-law-firm-in-unofficial-statement
https://youtu.be/_ZjNOwKi2tI?t=8m20s - one vid saying Tether did not manipulate

De-centralized Exchanges already here but will be better?
How important is this actually? What are the big advantages?
https://cointelegraph.com/news/binance-releases-demo-of-decentralized-exchange

Schnorr signatures coming in 3 years?


Custodians, making institutional money possible:

Robinhood: US Stocks brokerage app enables buying bitcoin in 5 US-states, it has 4 million costumers in total
https://news.bitcoin.com/robinhood-starts-rolling-out-cryptocurrency-trading-today/  


Custodians: Institutions can buy crypto there
(cause they are not allowed to hold the crypto themselves, for security reasons)
Coinbase since July 2018 -> 10 hedge funds as costumers
Northern trust since about beginning 2018
Gemini also does
https://cryptocomes.com/coinbase-plans-to-expand-its-custodial-service-by-adding-37-new-crypto-assets  


Bakkt:
Makes the same thing as ETF?
Intercontinental Exchange (Parent company of New York stock exchange,
second largest owner of financial exchanges; first is CME) is launching Bakkt in November.
They want to make Bitcoin available for 401(k)’s pension funds.
As a next step they want to enable an alternative to credit cards
(merchants pay 1-2% of the price of goods for credit cards?)
(they partner with Microsoft and starbucks)
(They can do this eg for big companies when both are their costumers by
not even writing on the blockchain directly but just changing the centralized database)
Coinbase and normal exchanges are ‘marketplaces under state laws as money transmitters’.
Gemini Winklevoss is a ‘trust company’ in New York. Bakkt would be another type,
that would be SEC and CFTC regulated. Institutions only want to buy from these.  
http://fortune.com/longform/nyse-owner-bitcoin-exchange-startup/


By the way, what about Bitcoin RSK sidechains (smart contracts on bitcoin network)?
It was big news in 2016 and 2017 that it’s coming it seems, since beginning of 2018 it’s
‘we are opening our MainNet Network in a staged approach’
https://www.rsk.co/
That’s the most recent article I found about it, from 3 months ago: https://medium.com/gurucapitalng/what-is-rootstock-rsk-the-bitcoin-sidechain-no-one-is-talking-about-838c4b0a668f


Bitcoin price predictions:
https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/  
https://coincodex.com/article/1779/bitcoin-price-predictions-2018/
-> like 15 ‘bitcoin gurus’ who basically all said in first half 2018 ’20-50k end of year 2018’)

Global Everything bubble pop / crisis: Bull run since 2009 –
a ‘crash’ is overdue. How will Bitcoin price react when it happens?


AGAINST
- Writing down on a global list whenever someone buys a lollipop is Bullshit
   -> but this is just the most basic underneath layer.
         Lightning will be layer on top, with basically free transactions

- Bitcoin doesn’t work, when it goes to 20k it becomes unusable because of fees -> lightning again
(also a bit schnorr signatures?)

---

Crypto pics:
https://imgur.com/a/RGm6dO1

The Case for Bitcoin:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4882599.msg43979219#msg43979219


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update 2018: not total newb anymore i guess- now turned megalomaniac
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September 03, 2018, 12:58:39 PM
 #2

Looks like listing too many things in one topic discouraged people from commenting, but this topic deserves a bump.

Few comments:

<snip>
- Scarce similar to gold (only 21 mio), but more usable to pay with
(and more and more in the future, everything going digital in the future)
...

The critics of Bitcoin would attack that saying that it 21m cap doesn't matter because you can create infinite number of Bitcoin forks or other cryptos with exact same, or even better features. And they're not entirely wrong knowing that even most die-hard bitcoiners tend to use altcoins as well. Even in this very topic you used term 'crypto' not 'Bitcoin', as most of the points can be applied to any/all crypto, not just Bitcoin.
In other words, cap is worthless (price-wise) if Bitcoin fails to maintain its dominant position.


<snip>
- People who are unbanked now, but with a smartphone + crypto they can send and receive money;
 

This only works if such people:
1- can use crypto to pay for goods & services (merchant adoption); and/or
2- are able to exchange cryptos for physical cash.
That's often not an option for those in shit-tier countries.

Also, cryptos are not the only solutions to the problem of unbanked, as proven ie. by M-Pesa.


To me, the biggest PRO of Bitcoin (and other cryptos) is being a hedge to the malfunctioning financial system by virtue of being trustless and censorship-resistant.

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