analysis: just-dice.com expected returns of 11.56%/month

[usagi]

In the last two weeks, just-dice.com has had over 46,500 BTC wagered. The house is currently up 590 BTC (1.3% -- approximately the 1% house odds plus an expected amount for people hitting max bet). At this rate the house makes about 42 BTC a day. On an investment pool of 11,500 this implies an expected return of 11.56% per month. This is incredibly good, and I expect the investment pool to increase dramatically when this becomes well-known.

And it's a damn fun game to play too!

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinStocks/comments/1hnh68/analysis_justdicecom_expected_returns_of_1156month/

[ronaldlee0917]

Hey, don't tell everyone or they'll all want in!
What we need is more players, not more investors...

Pretty much what I want to say.

[bobboooiie]

You are doing math on expected returns on such a short term that tomorow it might be -11.56/month ... Try again in 1 year

[MPOE-PR]

You are doing math on expected returns on such a short term that tomorow it might be -11.56/month ... Try again in 1 year

You don't know usagi yet. Give yourself a few months.

[xaviarlol]

Current return is now around 40% per year, or 3.3% per month..

[usagi]

Current return is now around 40% per year, or 3.3% per month..

Dunno -- I just did some samples, and wagered per hour is way, way higher than it has ever been. It's more than 4x the average of the last two weeks. just-dice.com is currently clocking over 1,100 btc wagered per hour. That implies 11 btc an hour, 264 btc a day, or 1,848 a week. Invested is currently 19,447 and change. This implies profits of about 9.5% a week -- almost four times what they were before my announcement.

I'm willing to bet the amount wagered will fluctuate over time, someone should graph it by keeping track of how much is invested and wagered at any particular time. I think I'll start keeping track of this myself because I find it personally interesting.