Bitcoin is a Roller Coaster. Deal with it. It is about to get REAL!

[Searing]

The only cautionary tale I might make on this is the group before in BTC and crypto up until say Jan 2017....we have seen a lot of FUD/drama/price dumps/etc and are still in the race

the massive amount of newbies have not been 'bloodied' yet by such and are NOT In crypto for some of the reasons us oldsters are...mostly they are in for the $$$ IMHO, and not the protocol

or replacement of traditional finance in some manner etc


thus when there is a correction...of some kind FUD wise or otherwise or an exchange chokes again etc ...all this money from Jan 2017 that went into crypto could flow out just as
 
fast (in the short term in my view) due to panic etc

Bitcoin and crypto is an unregulated market..thus like the 1880's thru 1930's  there will be the equivalent of bank runs and crashes etc...if you HODL it will be fine....but some

of the new money and newbies coming in are gonna get bloodied by this yo/yo up/down/crash/fud/despair/fomo action....so proportionally a lot of newbies..but proportionally

many of them are gonna panic like any other masses in any other fiat or bank crash

prepare for it and Hodl

after such happens, IMHO, after being bloodied....the will come back into the market wiser and in the long run..it will be good....but too many folks out there still learning

and buying the press FUD on every downturn..it may take this mass of new folk this year into BTC and crypto a year to come to terms how fast stuff here can flip in price

and perception from month to month....learning curves suck!

anyway, what I'm planning on..if I'm wrong I will be pleasantly surprised...if I am right....I'll just ride it out as usual......but the new folk....they to shall learn like us

pre-Jan 2017 folk.....it's a roller coaster...deal with it

Anyway, oldsters also need to prepare for this .....the swings may be major...newbies...well, there is a reason some of us in this for a bit have 'grey hairs'

take the poll

thanks

brad

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[HeRetiK]

Very true, our new friends that just joined during 2017 have only seen the upside of crypto so far. Let's see how they'll fare once things turn ugly


Once the market reverses or gets hit by a major downward swing I see two upsides though:

1) Those that are just in it for a quick buck will get flushed out

2) Cheap coins for the rest of us


Always keep an eye on the endgame. Short to mid-term price fluctuations change nothing about Bitcoin itself.

[JTPhotography]

This thread is FUD.

[NorrisK]

The thing is the swings in USD simply get bigger as the value of 1 bitcoin increases.

Before a 10% swing was between 50-100 USD when the price was sub 1000 usd. Now, with prices being above 10k, a 10% swing is 1000 usd.

The % swings didn't necessarily increase, but the fiat value makes it feel a lot bigger.

[HasHe]

Very true, our new friends that just joined during 2017 have only seen the upside of crypto so far. Let's see how they'll fare once things turn ugly


Once the market reverses or gets hit by a major downward swing I see two upsides though:

1) Those that are just in it for a quick buck will get flushed out

2) Cheap coins for the rest of us


Always keep an eye on the endgame. Short to mid-term price fluctuations change nothing about Bitcoin itself.

Absolutely,newbies would just become weak hands by selling their bitcoins at very cheap rate.The remaining members would get cheap coins for which many older bitcoiners just wait silently.They just fill their bags and once again remain silent neither support FUD nor oppose FUD.Newbies as usual become victims.

[paolo099]

well, somebody has to pay the price for the holders/buyers even in darkest time, i mean, we are in the best forum ever about BTC, you can read shitloads of topics, very informative, old members advices and yet people will get flushed down the drain in the moment BTC will face a big drop.
All in all, if we want to buy cheap somebody has to sell at some point, i'm ready for that

[no0dlepunk]

Yep, let's deal with it! But it's not really like roller coaster, it's more on like a carousel. It goes up and down but the real enthusiasts know how safe it is to ride. And yes, I agree that the newbies are the victim-slash-trigger of the FUD. Once these bunch of noobs sell on FUD, expect a huge fall, of course.

[Searing]

This thread is FUD.

How so? Don't you think there will be eventual consequences of an eventual downturn? True, that is my assumption. (fear..shudder)

I suppose I could see your point of view if BTC, goes to say 24K and then corrected to say 18k in 2018...then the newbies would stick.

But, from some oldster's point of view, 2013 onward in my case, I've seen BTC go from close to $1,200.00 to $290 was it? or some such within 4 months.

Heck BTC last fall when I bought LISK on the ICO (a wise move for me by the by) the price was $475 a BTC...and as I type this BTC is $11,127.14, heady stuff!

Thus, I hope you are completely correct and this thread is FUD. It is a 'what if' thread.

If you HODL long term, it will all even out in the 'wash' IMHO, on my scenario or your scenario (the thread is FUD) anyway, again in my view.

Thus, the solution is HODL like hell, even if you are a newbie and we have a correction, hopefully, new folk are more 'centered on crypto'

and I have nothing to worry about ...and you are correct then ..this thread is FUD.

But not FUD, IMHO, as long as you look at crypto as a long-term investment and HODL, or that is my bet (since 2013)

Again, you have a valid point, but some of us 'oldsters' (not all, some) have more than a bit of 'scar tissue'

I do hope you are correct and any supposition, by myself, on this thread is dead wrong, it will make everyone's holding on to their BTC and crypto a LOT easier as time goes by.

But anyway, HODL is my fall back position (or cheap coin) if this thread is correct. Your view or my view, again, IMHO, it will all work out to the same price more or less in 5 years anyway.

Just saying. I too think it would be great to be wrong on this thread. Just playing the usual 'what if' and 'how to cope' and 'what to do' long term games.

later

brad

[Searing]

Below is a link to another more cautious view then this thread

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7gi55s/dont_invest_recklessly/

Using his viewpoint on what I'm doing below....I'm still OK under his scenario above.

However, you can see where some of us oldsters are coming from, looking at BTC prices from 1K in Jan 2017 to 11k now.

It is all quite exciting. But freaks us all out in one manner or another.

Anyway, his view above.

Feel free to post contrary views etc, this is just as supposition this thread.

Again, my only real point I'm sticking to, is IF you are gonna HODL do so long-term, and avoid the FUD etc that may come in the future

and indeed a correction in price. As long as crypto and BTC have adoption and use, and survive, all shall pass if you HODL, in my view.

But like the link says above, be sure of how much you are getting into is not TOO MUCH to handle if things go pear-shaped...



As to myself why holding below, even under the above link's view, makes sense to me.

Well, all the crypto I have BTC/etc I MINED...thus all equip paid/elec month to month off crypto...I have NOTHING in crypto, but the infrastructure (miners) and what I'm holding
beyond month to month mining expenses..after that it is all clean profit after the IRS gets its take as income this year and next.

thus, he is correct, but I choose to do this

1) Because I have the crypto and BTC hoard and I owe no debt anything or otherwise, I have no debt anymore/equip has ROI'd etc..it is all profit..the works for me and so HODL makes sense to me. I'm also not trading or buying crypto at these prices...too chicken....

2) I'm retiring, at the end of this month, So Jan 1st 2018, no more wage slave, which I can do w/o touching any crypto (even if it goes tulips) at the 'modest lifestyle' I have now..but with BTC and Crypto as a Backstop it has made me brave enough to pull the trigger (ie I don't think it is going to go tulips). Some crypto will go to pay health insurance till Medicaid in 2 years, and soc sec retirement, which I will not take for 3 years, and so no soc sec needed/no crypto needed..same lifestyle..but again crypto hoard was the last straw and HODL that made
me brave enough to pull the trigger on retirement at 62 years.....I'm covered even if the works goes tulips.

(I have a better shot at being Natalie Portman's Love Puppet, before crypto and BTC goes tulips, IMHO, but still...er wait.now conflicted on tulips...I could have a shot...damn!..got myself confused)

So we will have corrections/etc, hopefully, my scenario fits a 'prudent' example of how to HODL. BTC goes to 1,000 USD, I'm no worse off than Jan 2017!

Thus my bet/thus my risks.


edit:

another article on a much more positive note about the long term prospects of BTC and crypto!

https://www.finder.com.au/will-the-bitcoin-bubble-burst

[treather]

The thing is the swings in USD simply get bigger as the value of 1 bitcoin increases.

Before a 10% swing was between 50-100 USD when the price was sub 1000 usd. Now, with prices being above 10k, a 10% swing is 1000 usd.

The % swings didn't necessarily increase, but the fiat value makes it feel a lot bigger.

This is a major issue right about now. I bought my first coins circa $200'. Then, a 20/30% swing downwards did not bother me as mush as 5% these days. The usd  value is bigger now in terms of %% than many can handle and I've been holding for three years now. I am almost immune to the upward and downward price movements. And  I don't bother checking the price any more. I spend what I need to when the need arises, the rest I plan to hodl until further notice.

[Kevin13]

Well, prices really in most cryptos are almost the same that's like a Rollercoaster but moreover I know we are happy and thankful despite of it because it signifies bitcoin is on the run for increasing and although it dumps sometimes now we know that it will go up more this time and hype from now never stops.

[flippener]

My strategy has always been simple - keep calm and hodl.

[Kprawn]

I have watched these spikes and dips for many years now and to some degree have worked out how this works. In many

instances when the price suddenly goes up, 9 out of 10 times .... this is fuelled by whales pumping the push. This is then

followed by hype and the price increase that follows are newbies/speculators buying in as a consequence. About 20% of the

push is coming from these newbies/speculators. When the whales stop pushing... they take profits and the price decrease

with about 10% to 20%... {in some cases even more} 

[hatshepsut93]

When people experience their first dip, they start thinking that this is the end, and trolls usually become very active during those times, creating an illusion for newbies that Bitcoin is free falling. So, the best advice to newbies is to zoom out the chart and notice that this rollercoaster is not going up and down periodically, like a sine wave, it's actually going up and up and up and then down a little bit but then up and up again - you lose money only if you sell at the bottom and quit. Bitcoin was growing for 1.5 years already, so maybe in a close future there will be a few months long bear market, but it will continue to go up after that because there's so much untapped potential.

[BrewMaster]

very true. the growth is a good thing and sometimes i feel like the crashes are even better. it makes bitcoin market that much stronger. and the price rise a solid movement.
a crash is practically flushing out the weak hands because the wise money exits first or holds on to the capital they have. it is always the newbies who make irrational decisions and start panic selling. and getting them out is always good.
it also silences the "bitcoin is in a bubble"-talk which is even a better thing to have.

[NoNetwork]

Very true, our new friends that just joined during 2017 have only seen the upside of crypto so far. Let's see how they'll fare once things turn ugly


Once the market reverses or gets hit by a major downward swing I see two upsides though:

1) Those that are just in it for a quick buck will get flushed out

2) Cheap coins for the rest of us


Always keep an eye on the endgame. Short to mid-term price fluctuations change nothing about Bitcoin itself.

Absolutely,newbies would just become weak hands by selling their bitcoins at very cheap rate.The remaining members would get cheap coins for which many older bitcoiners just wait silently.They just fill their bags and once again remain silent neither support FUD nor oppose FUD.Newbies as usual become victims.

Its understandable why these newbies always take the senseless actions, that's how they got the title. Anyways, isn't it very obvious that they will take the panic actions, because first they not so familiar in this kind of platform. They've might've just heard that the Bitcoin's price is very high, so they wanted to invest in it too. But once the price of it dumps, they are going to panic and sell all the Bitcoin they have as soon as they can, not knowing that this is just normal scene and not a phenomenon. The difference between us and the newbies are the experience and the knowledge.

[HeRetiK]

Very true, our new friends that just joined during 2017 have only seen the upside of crypto so far. Let's see how they'll fare once things turn ugly


Once the market reverses or gets hit by a major downward swing I see two upsides though:

1) Those that are just in it for a quick buck will get flushed out

2) Cheap coins for the rest of us


Always keep an eye on the endgame. Short to mid-term price fluctuations change nothing about Bitcoin itself.

Absolutely,newbies would just become weak hands by selling their bitcoins at very cheap rate.The remaining members would get cheap coins for which many older bitcoiners just wait silently.They just fill their bags and once again remain silent neither support FUD nor oppose FUD.Newbies as usual become victims.

Its understandable why these newbies always take the senseless actions, that's how they got the title. Anyways, isn't it very obvious that they will take the panic actions, because first they not so familiar in this kind of platform. They've might've just heard that the Bitcoin's price is very high, so they wanted to invest in it too. But once the price of it dumps, they are going to panic and sell all the Bitcoin they have as soon as they can, not knowing that this is just normal scene and not a phenomenon. The difference between us and the newbies are the experience and the knowledge.

I'm sure there are at least some newbies that had the common sense to first do their homework and know what they are getting into.

Also from my anecdotal experience it seems that a lot of the new money that is about to enter plans to use a fire and forget strategy -- ie. buy and hold. Whether they'll stick to it once the goings get rough is anyone's guess though.

The nubs that will panic at the slightest of drops will definitely be the loudest ones once correction comes. But that doesn't necessarily make them the majority. I might be overestimating our newcomers though.

[bribed]

I agree with what I read. There isnt only an upside as we have witnessed/ experienced throughout this year. I am curious how this space and these markets in general will evolve in the next years, if there will be a bear market again, if we will see stricter regulations. But nonetheless, I will stay in! Crypto is the future, but the future is not easily to achieve.

[50ouncebrew]

Bitcoin isn't really a rolelr coster right now because it is going up and up and up, but guess what? It isn't ever going to come down.

We should hope BTC isn't a roller coaster because if it is, then the reality is all roller coasters end up where they started which means BTC would crash back down to being completely worthless.

[Alns]

And yes, I agree that the newbies are the victim-slash-trigger of the FUD. Once these bunch of noobs sell on FUD, expect a huge fall, of course.

Everybody knows that, just join to the subreddit of bitcoin, you will see that everytime that there is a FUD thread, it has been created by a newbie, and probably the name of the thread is "bitcoin going down for more than 5%, a real crash is coming?"

And a few more sentences saying that bitcoin is gonna die.. It is full of people like that, and we all are tired of that newbies who have not even been holding for more than a month and they are saying that a $100 downtrend is just a crash..

I try to do not check that subreddit because it is plenty of newbies, but now this forum and specially the bitcoin discussion is full of that kind of users.