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Author Topic: Dice Games Rule of the Average Sum  (Read 44 times)
kiddo69
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December 03, 2017, 04:55:04 PM
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I have a theory related to dice sites, and how actually you can take advantage of it in reality. I have tested Primedice and actually it turns out that the rule of the average applies to it.
Briefly- in 20 thousand rolls your average sum number is more or less the same as in 500 rolls- Fifty (+-2%). And That is a Fact.  So, theoretically if you have couple of dozen of rolls which differ from the that average number (the law of the large numbers, I believe it is called) you know that this is going to change in order to compensate the average... What you don't know- is it going to be in the imminent future or it is going to be largely spread over time. However- analyzing your bet history might be interesting thing to consider, if you want to give your luck a little boost. And a smart script analyzing bet history would be an interesting thing.
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hatshepsut93
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December 03, 2017, 05:38:43 PM
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It seems like you are implying that casino's RNG tries to correct itself when it differs from the mean for long enough, but I have a hard time believing that, because that would create a very easy opportunity to get an edge for players, meaning that their expected value (EV) will turn into positive and they will be profiting from the game in a long run, while casino will be losing until they go bankrupt. So, either you have discovered a bug, or your sample size was actually too small to make such conclusions, and you are suffering from the Gambler's Fallacy - thinking that the outcome has to flip to the opposite after a long streak of the same outcomes. Also, you shouldn't forget about the house edge - the game is not just higher than 50 or lower than 50, there is a dead spot somewhere it between 49 and 51 that will always be red.

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December 03, 2017, 05:59:47 PM
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It seems like you are implying that casino's RNG tries to correct itself when it differs from the mean for long enough, but I have a hard time believing that, because that would create a very easy opportunity to get an edge for players, meaning that their expected value (EV) will turn into positive and they will be profiting from the game in a long run, while casino will be losing until they go bankrupt. So, either you have discovered a bug, or your sample size was actually too small to make such conclusions, and you are suffering from Gambler's Fallacy - thinking that the outcome has to flip to the opposite after a long streak of the same outcomes. Also, you shouldn't forget about the house edge - the game is not just higher than 50 or lower than 50, there is a dead spot somewhere it between 49 and 51 that will always be red.

Well- it is not the Gambler Fallacy- the numbers may have no memory, but a random generator does what is suppose to do- generate random numbers. You pull hundred thousand numbers from random.org for example and the average sum gonna be there. I don't believe it is a bug either. But as you say- the house edge is there.
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December 03, 2017, 08:14:06 PM
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It seems like you are implying that casino's RNG tries to correct itself when it differs from the mean for long enough, but I have a hard time believing that, because that would create a very easy opportunity to get an edge for players, meaning that their expected value (EV) will turn into positive and they will be profiting from the game in a long run, while casino will be losing until they go bankrupt. So, either you have discovered a bug, or your sample size was actually too small to make such conclusions, and you are suffering from Gambler's Fallacy - thinking that the outcome has to flip to the opposite after a long streak of the same outcomes. Also, you shouldn't forget about the house edge - the game is not just higher than 50 or lower than 50, there is a dead spot somewhere it between 49 and 51 that will always be red.

Well- it is not the Gambler Fallacy- the numbers may have no memory, but a random generator does what is suppose to do- generate random numbers. You pull hundred thousand numbers from random.org for example and the average sum gonna be there. I don't believe it is a bug either. But as you say- the house edge is there.

If there is house edge, do not expect that it will ever go into a positive EV. That's just basically how it works, no matter what analysis you perform on it. Since statistically, it the closer you are to infinity will show the true number, which means 1% house edge any gambler will lose in the very long run no matter what. You can also read about this on thewizardofodds.com. It has been proven that any kind of gambling strategy will never win in the long run on any kind of game.

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