The rally will eventually end with a dip to at least $5.5K //3K

[Bitcoinaire]

The question is how long will the bear market last. Will we have a long bear like 2014-2015? The 2020 bubble will be epic!

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[coinplus]

OP, and add this sentence to the title, "Then that will be another opportunity to buy more!". Thanks.

It would be nice of Mr. Market to give some of us another chance to join the ride to the moon. Hehehe.

Yeah your right. I think OP's view is quite realistic because I myself don't believe that bitcoin would continue to be on an upward trend day by day with only a little dip after crazy pump, the value of it now is overvalued, driven merely by speculation. I am sure that the time OP is referring to will come soon since bitcoin's rise has been on a prolonged bullish run already. Just you wait we would see another great chance to join the ride to the moon next time.

Okay ! Maybe you need to look back into the thread and see some people like OP who have come up with predictions like this on why bitcoin is going to get pretty messed up in the long run and it would still keep happening even when the value is $100,000.

When the value of bitcoin was around $3000, so many people thought it was a bubble and it would burst and it kept on going and they are still hoping for the same thing because they did not get in when the value was low and they so wish they can. I wish I can too, but there are just somethings that in as much as we want them to happen, they won't.

[TERA2]

I never made a call at $3000.  In fact I had multiple people ask me prrsonally if they should sell and I told them not to .

[Luthier]

The mistake people make is that they think the price of Bitcoin has everything to do with the value of Bitcoin.  The price of Bitcoin has more to do with human psychology, which follows predictable patterns.

Depending on how high this rally goes, $5k could be the relevant support level.  The important thing to know is that there will be a bubble, there will be a crash, there will be an immediate rebound, and there will be a long, slow, excruciating bear market as the price gradually slips lower and lower.  At some point, there will be a capitulation where the price briefly spikes down to a level no one could POSSIBLY imagine because they all jumped on board during the bull market and thought it would go up forever.

These facts have nothing to do with the value or usefulness of Bitcoin which we all know is great.  They have to do with the psychology of humans and traders which haven't changed since the beginning of time.  That's why every Bitcoin bubble looks the same.

[PricklyPear1]

The mistake people make is that they think the price of Bitcoin has everything to do with the value of Bitcoin.  The price of Bitcoin has more to do with human psychology, which follows predictable patterns.

Depending on how high this rally goes, $5k could be the relevant support level.  The important thing to know is that there will be a bubble, there will be a crash, there will be an immediate rebound, and there will be a long, slow, excruciating bear market as the price gradually slips lower and lower.  At some point, there will be a capitulation where the price briefly spikes down to a level no one could POSSIBLY imagine because they all jumped on board during the bull market and thought it would go up forever.

These facts have nothing to do with the value or usefulness of Bitcoin which we all know is great.  They have to do with the psychology of humans and traders which haven't changed since the beginning of time.  That's why every Bitcoin bubble looks the same.

I’ve personally seen this over the last two bubbles. This forum is caked with old posts about it rising infinitely; technology investment is increasing, adoption rates have never been higher, etc. Even more so, I feel like I bang my head on the wall these days telling people this is what happens and if you remove your head from the BTC>fiat>gov’t cloud, most players can do a decent job of predicting this and positioning themselves on either side of the run up/run down quite well.

[sgbett]

I dont know how high it will go but that is how low it will go. Just a humble call made purely via pattern extrapolation. Since you so strongly believe it will not happen, that is exactly why it's going to happen. I have no further arguments.

I've been thinking $3k for a while, but today I was feeling an uncanny deja-vu and so I started to have a more thorough look. I decided $3k was just a bit low - looked to me like there was a lot of price action in the $3.7-4k region. So I went from there.

I find it hilarious that 2 posts in and you were already being called a troll, simply for pointing out what seems fairly logical.

This time could be different sure, but I doubt it.

[TERA2]

I'm adjusting the target to $5500. $3K will happen only if this turns into a 2011/2014 scenario and the hit would be several months down the road.

[upsidedown75]

I dont know how high it will go but that is how low it will go. Just a humble call made purely via pattern extrapolation. Since you so strongly believe it will not happen, that is exactly why it's going to happen. I have no further arguments.

Seriously your argument sounds off a little bit. Sure, we cannot know what can happen any moment? And from the look of things, a whole lot of people are expecting that huge correction. However, you have to understand that the fact that the community strongly believes it won't get that low is because they are not ready to give it out that low. Keep wishing, no matter how huge the correction is going to get, it cannot be that low.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

I dont know how high it will go but that is how low it will go. Just a humble call made purely via pattern extrapolation. Since you so strongly believe it will not happen, that is exactly why it's going to happen. I have no further arguments.

Doubt it. The fundamentals have changed dramatically. So I don't see a drop to 3k happening. Possibly 5.5k but even that seems like a stretch and I doubt it would last very long.

[Gabb]

I dont know how high it will go but that is how low it will go. Just a humble call made purely via pattern extrapolation. Since you so strongly believe it will not happen, that is exactly why it's going to happen. I have no further arguments.

Pattern extrapolation? Are you taking as reference the gradual decline of bitcoin after the pump in December 2013? That has been one of the most banal "predictions" I've heard relatively often, as if the conditions of the bitcoin market were similar to those of the time.

It is true that nobody knows what the future will bring, but even if the price were to fall to $3,000 by the end of this year, it would still be a splendid year for bitcoin, with a growth of 200% over last year.

[thecodebear]

The current rally already ended. And it dipped to $13.5k. Unless that price breaks in the next few days, we've already found our bottom. And a new rally will likely be commencing in the coming weeks to push it up over $20k.

[Kiweikoo]

Anyone who's been around since 2013 or earlier knows we will be back to $3k eventually.

You cannot even compare 2013 to now. A lot has changed. The level of fear, uncertainty and doubt has so much reduced. Moreover, what happened in 2013 that did not already happen this year ?

How long did we see the huge dump before it got picked back up? That should tell you something. Whoever has missed the train should stop wishing for something that would not happen.

[TERA2]

The 2013 bubble pop occured when mtgox started going down. At that point, all the traders decided that they needed to take profit while it was still physically possible for them to do so, and it reflected how many weak hands there were.

[sgbett]

The mistake people make is that they think the price of Bitcoin has everything to do with the value of Bitcoin.  The price of Bitcoin has more to do with human psychology, which follows predictable patterns.

Depending on how high this rally goes, $5k could be the relevant support level.  The important thing to know is that there will be a bubble, there will be a crash, there will be an immediate rebound, and there will be a long, slow, excruciating bear market as the price gradually slips lower and lower.  At some point, there will be a capitulation where the price briefly spikes down to a level no one could POSSIBLY imagine because they all jumped on board during the bull market and thought it would go up forever.

These facts have nothing to do with the value or usefulness of Bitcoin which we all know is great.  They have to do with the psychology of humans and traders which haven't changed since the beginning of time.  That's why every Bitcoin bubble looks the same.

This bro lifts

[TERA2]

Right - the peak is a level logarithmically above the mean, driven by traders, and the bottom is a level logarithmically BELOW the mean, again driven by traders, and the two levels are vastly different, especially since we are dealing with exponential price discovery.

People make a mistake when I say "I predict a dip to $x" that I think that's the real value of bitcoin or that the price is going to stay there for a significant amount of time - no its a hammer candle.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Right - the peak is a level logarithmically above the mean, driven by traders, and the bottom is a level logarithmically BELOW the mean, again driven by traders, and the two levels are vastly different, especially since we are dealing with exponential price discovery.

People make a mistake when I say "I predict a dip to $x" that I think that's the real value of bitcoin or that the price is going to stay there for a significant amount of time - no its a hammer candle.

Fair enough.

[podaniki]

The question is how long will the bear market last. Will we have a long bear like 2014-2015? The 2020 bubble will be epic!

many of guys are so pessimistic. I do not think that it will fall so very much, but 5,5 thousand seem to me something possible.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

The question is how long will the bear market last. Will we have a long bear like 2014-2015? The 2020 bubble will be epic!

many of guys are so pessimistic. I do not think that it will fall so very much, but 5,5 thousand seem to me something possible.

If we keep going up until 2020 I don't think we'll drop to 5,5k. That would be totally insane. If that happens I'll make sure to sell some RE though.

[TERA2]

I'm so sorry for this horrible thread.

[Wilhelm]

I'm so sorry for this horrible thread.

It was pretty much spot on