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Author Topic: CME futures to suppress the price in the long-term?  (Read 159 times)
cryptician12
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December 01, 2017, 02:07:06 PM
 #1

From the very onset, I believed that the introduction of CME futures would undoubtedly be a good thing for bitcoin. The inflow of institutional cash would surely push the prices to new records.

However, recently a thought crossed my mind... Is it possible that futures would be used by banks to suppress the prices instead, in much the same way the prices for gold and silver are being suppressed right now? And if so, what could be their motivation behind it?

Could this be some futile effort to discredit Bitcoin and drive attention away from it? But the thing is that I don't believe Bitcoin itself possess any threat to the financial system. Transactions are too slow, costly and the network cannot support nearly enough transactions to allow for real world business applications. The blockchain technology behind bitcoin is a totally different story though. THIS is the big disruptor to the financial system, and there is no stopping it with any form of market manipulation.

So my thoughts are mixed on this. In the short run I believe the inflow of institutional cash could push prices higher. In the long-run though I suspect there may be attempts to suppress the prices... to what end I am not quite sure.

What do you think?
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cryptician12
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December 01, 2017, 02:08:46 PM
 #2

FYI, the initial listing of bitcoin futures to be launched on Dec 18
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December 01, 2017, 05:51:35 PM
 #3

To be honest, I think the long term effect is unknown. However what I'm sure is, introduction of CME will defintiely increase the volatility.
That's because it gives funds an easy way to go long/ short bitcoin on high margin.

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December 01, 2017, 06:02:14 PM
 #4

I believe it legitimizes bitcoin on the world stage

When people place futures on currency it's really only with big currencies like EUR, USD, GBP, JPY, CHF, etc.
When people bet futures on commodities it's gold, silver, oil, real estate, agriculture, etc.

now bitcoin, can you believe it?!?!
bitcoin keeps growing users, keeps functional, keeps improving, keeps building security and strength, I don't see how they can suppress it   
There are going to be 4 more mining companies in 2018, everyday 2nd layer channels are being developed, everyday 100,000 new coinbase accounts are registered.

The momentum right now is so amazing  Grin Grin Grin Cheesy
DaMut
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December 01, 2017, 06:34:46 PM
 #5

FYI, the initial listing of bitcoin futures to be launched on Dec 18

can you give me the source for those statement ?
because until now i never heard about it yet and if we're looking at our current movement in bitcoin price,
the listing should be near or around these days,it make a sense if they're really list it at Dec 18.

for Bitcoin everything is a double edge sword,
it has its own advantage and disadvantage.
the advantage that Bitcoin will get from this listing of course people will start to know about it and slowly it will be approved by many people around the world.
at the same time the price will be pushed to the peak by people and the hype is real,
when that time comes it's not surprising to see a huge blow caused by the whales,
many people will suffer for a short term and some of them may be lose their interest toward it.
well,we need to get out of this safe zone.
no gain no pain,i believe slowly many people will start to use it and adopt it in their real life.

pitiflin
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December 01, 2017, 06:48:16 PM
 #6

From the very onset, I believed that the introduction of CME futures would undoubtedly be a good thing for bitcoin. The inflow of institutional cash would surely push the prices to new records.

However, recently a thought crossed my mind... Is it possible that futures would be used by banks to suppress the prices instead, in much the same way the prices for gold and silver are being suppressed right now? And if so, what could be their motivation behind it?

Could this be some futile effort to discredit Bitcoin and drive attention away from it? But the thing is that I don't believe Bitcoin itself possess any threat to the financial system. Transactions are too slow, costly and the network cannot support nearly enough transactions to allow for real world business applications. The blockchain technology behind bitcoin is a totally different story though. THIS is the big disruptor to the financial system, and there is no stopping it with any form of market manipulation.

So my thoughts are mixed on this. In the short run I believe the inflow of institutional cash could push prices higher. In the long-run though I suspect there may be attempts to suppress the prices... to what end I am not quite sure.

What do you think?

Even if bitcoin doesn't posses any threat against the financial system of any economy, remember the fact that it is decentralized. Number two, it has got so much attention and the number of scams also have been quite a long this year. The CME group can be seen as an opportunity as well as a threat. Because the instituinal cash would be way more than the normal crypto whales inventory, no doubt in that. So the prices will get influenced way easily but if the SEC decides to limit the power of CME, well that'd be helpful. Another issue is that NASDAQ has also decided to list bitcoin futures by the first half of 2018,this also can affect the normal markets. And yeah, CME has officially decide to list bitcoin futures on December 18.

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cryptician12
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December 01, 2017, 07:01:13 PM
 #7

can you give me the source for those statement ?
because until now i never heard about it yet and if we're looking at our current movement in bitcoin price,
the listing should be near or around these days,it make a sense if they're really list it at Dec 18.

I first read it on Zerohedge:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-01/bitcoin-jumps-above-10k-after-cftc-approves-futures-trading-first-trade-take-place-d

Didn't bother checking on CME website as ZH tends to be accurate on headline statements like this:)
tomahawk9
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December 01, 2017, 07:41:47 PM
 #8

It's very hard to predict what is going to happen with CME futures and BTC price in the long-term, as we don't have any past references of a big financial company making such a big move towards Bitcoin. But I can say that in the long-term BTC Futures will take buying liquidity away from bitcoin, since the money will never reach the market.
Short-term I'd say it is going to be good for btc and the market, and it's very possible that we're going to see a surge in the price thanks to the institutional cash like you said. Bitcoin will get a lot of exposure and pehaps attrack a bigger influx of new money.
Unfortunately, opening the gates to Wall Street might result in market manipulation thanks to big players that will have a tool to surpress the price. And Bitcoin Futures being settled with cash-only will only help to keep the fiat ponzi of the elite alive.



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dominikas18
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December 15, 2017, 01:25:31 PM
 #9

From the very onset, I believed that the introduction of CME futures would undoubtedly be a good thing for bitcoin. The inflow of institutional cash would surely push the prices to new records.

However, recently a thought crossed my mind... Is it possible that futures would be used by banks to suppress the prices instead, in much the same way the prices for gold and silver are being suppressed right now? And if so, what could be their motivation behind it?

Could this be some futile effort to discredit Bitcoin and drive attention away from it? But the thing is that I don't believe Bitcoin itself possess any threat to the financial system. Transactions are too slow, costly and the network cannot support nearly enough transactions to allow for real world business applications. The blockchain technology behind bitcoin is a totally different story though. THIS is the big disruptor to the financial system, and there is no stopping it with any form of market manipulation.

So my thoughts are mixed on this. In the short run I believe the inflow of institutional cash could push prices higher. In the long-run though I suspect there may be attempts to suppress the prices... to what end I am not quite sure.

What do you think?

Even if bitcoin doesn't posses any threat against the financial system of any economy, remember the fact that it is decentralized. Number two, it has got so much attention and the number of scams also have been quite a long this year. The CME group can be seen as an opportunity as well as a threat. Because the instituinal cash would be way more than the normal crypto whales inventory, no doubt in that. So the prices will get influenced way easily but if the SEC decides to limit the power of CME, well that'd be helpful. Another issue is that NASDAQ has also decided to list bitcoin futures by the first half of 2018,this also can affect the normal markets. And yeah, CME has officially decide to list bitcoin futures on December 18.

There is obviously an example of CBOE futures launch on 10 December, when Bitcoin made one of the largest growth in % in 5 minutes time, I think the same will happen upon CME launch. I have a quick video proving my point:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JsR9N-TDBWM
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