Calling top at $16500 (New speculation: Guess the price 19 Feb 2021!)

[Febo]

However things have changed this time around. When we do reach the bottom, only BCH will bounce.

What version of BCH? Because I already saw three.  

If BTC is being handled to corporations, what can we say of BCH, which was heavily sponsored by Bitmain? And the first fork of it, announced by Jihan Wu? And this new fork, from doctor Craig?

BCH is going to get handled by corporations once Bitman will get sold to them. So if we hate Jihan Wu to manipulate, we will only see soon what the real manipulation looks like.

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[sgbett]

However things have changed this time around. When we do reach the bottom, only BCH will bounce.

What version of BCH? Because I already saw three.  

If BTC is being handled to corporations, what can we say of BCH, which was heavily sponsored by Bitmain? And the first fork of it, announced by Jihan Wu? And this new fork, from doctor Craig?

They keep forking BCH, only to fuel ego wars. What this have to do with a P2P idea of money?

Why are they forking it, in the first place? Each fork they do, they weak BCH as a idea.

Also, if they are dumping BTC to cover the costs of their mining wars... those who will be buying it, are the bankers which they disagree with. Dont you see here a contradiction? Dont you see these bankers will use these cheap coins to fuel their projects?

My thought is that BCH devs should focus in payment methods, not on ego wars. Forget this nonsense about "Satoshi's vision", focus on the technicals and prove that you are a viable option. We can only dream of a anarcho-capitalist utopia, because the NPCs, who legitimize the power of the State and the banks, and which are the majority, will not let us go there. We can only have anarchy on the internet, but even the internet is being censored these days.

Would it surprise you to know I am with SV

BCH forked off of BTC, in order to preserve Bitcoin per whitepaper. Same thing happened again. For me ABC is trying to add shit to the base layer that just isn't needed.

Bitcoin doesn't need improving, it just needs maintaining. Rock-star developers always want to show how they are the smartest kid in town though :/

[sgbett]

Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!)

You are calling bottom on February 2021 or I dont understand that title?   If I dont understand it, when do you expect BTC to bottom?

Yes spot on, the bottom would be due on Feb 2021 and I think it would be ~2483

Snce BTC added segwit though, i'm not sure it will ever run up again like it did in the past.

[OgNasty]

Yes spot on, the bottom would be due on Feb 2021 and I think it would be ~2483

Snce BTC added segwit though, i'm not sure it will ever run up again like it did in the past.

Interested in betting on this?

[sgbett]

Yes spot on, the bottom would be due on Feb 2021 and I think it would be ~2483

Snce BTC added segwit though, i'm not sure it will ever run up again like it did in the past.

Interested in betting on this?

I flipped all my BTC for BCH... I'm already all-in! (now slowly transitioning to SV as I see it persist, and continue to deliver the Bitcoin I bought into back in 2011... opinions may vary! ) so with that "full disclosure" out of the way here's my continued "permabear" stance explored further.

Looks like we are at decision time. Do we break $4250 and head towards mid $2500s?

I revised my original prediction as the initial rebound impulse wasn't as strong as I thought it would be, so the second is likely to be tempered too.



This permabear thinks we've exhausted the impulse down...Next stop 9500. What? say it ain't so why u no bearish? Well, because I think speculators are idiots

Anyone else calling that? No? I didn't think so. Enjoy your swing trade. Don't forget to exit though, because the slide to 2483 will be even slower and all the more excruciating. (ahh, thats the "permabear" sgbett!!! lol)

Probably stick my head in about may time. See how things are going. GL All! (SV is Bitcoin!)

[reactorjuno]

You posted this in early February:



With a closing price in 2018 around $5500, we will see how things go next month but I must say, I am pretty impressed. Now I am waiting to see the price in May 2019.... above $10,000? I am holding now, will sell if the price ever goes close to $10,000.

As I said previously, the ETF could make things more unpredictable...

[cellard]

Yes spot on, the bottom would be due on Feb 2021 and I think it would be ~2483

Snce BTC added segwit though, i'm not sure it will ever run up again like it did in the past.

Interested in betting on this?

I flipped all my BTC for BCH... I'm already all-in! (now slowly transitioning to SV as I see it persist, and continue to deliver the Bitcoin I bought into back in 2011... opinions may vary! ) so with that "full disclosure" out of the way here's my continued "permabear" stance explored further.

Looks like we are at decision time. Do we break $4250 and head towards mid $2500s?

I revised my original prediction as the initial rebound impulse wasn't as strong as I thought it would be, so the second is likely to be tempered too.



This permabear thinks we've exhausted the impulse down...Next stop 9500. What? say it ain't so why u no bearish? Well, because I think speculators are idiots

Anyone else calling that? No? I didn't think so. Enjoy your swing trade. Don't forget to exit though, because the slide to 2483 will be even slower and all the more excruciating. (ahh, thats the "permabear" sgbett!!! lol)

Probably stick my head in about may time. See how things are going. GL All! (SV is Bitcoin!)

This is completely reckless behaviour. Going in all in on BCH (specially right now during the so called "hash wars" doesn't seem too bright too me. Decent predictions nontheless, im just not quite sure about that move. Perhaps also overly pessimistic on the long term with a BAKKT+ETF+halving combo around 2020 which would easily move it to ATH.

In case of doubt, you should have just kept the free BCH that you received when the bcash split occurred (as I did, not that I have doubts, but just because im just lazy and wasn't bothered to get the damn coins). That way you would be free of risk.

Remember that the white paper says it clearly: Accumulated proof of work is the real Bitcoin:



I know BCHers will arbitrarily spin this around too just like they arbitrarily add checkpoints.

[gentlemand]

Yes spot on, the bottom would be due on Feb 2021 and I think it would be ~2483

Snce BTC added segwit though, i'm not sure it will ever run up again like it did in the past.

Nearly two and half years to shed the final couple of grand? It could do it by the end of this weekend. I doubt that would be the absolute bottom but I would fully expect bottoms to be in the bag way before then.

No idea if and when there'll be another high or whether it'll be that low or lower. I am confident that by that point things will bear zero resemblance to how they look at present.

[satosibtc1000]

I do not think that you can trust MtGox and I do not see any signs that in 2021 there will be a decrease in the price but I think that now bitcoin will slip and then fall well again and however there is no need to guess two options here or outside the market or inside ! I for the first option )

[Febo]

You posted this in early February:



With a closing price in 2018 around $5500, we will see how things go next month but I must say, I am pretty impressed. Now I am waiting to see the price in May 2019.... above $10,000? I am holding now, will sell if the price ever goes close to $10,000.

As I said previously, the ETF could make things more unpredictable...

Man if you plan to sell your coins in 2019 you will have serious troubles getting them back cheap in 2020.  But what do I know.  

Yes spot on, the bottom would be due on Feb 2021 and I think it would be ~2483

Snce BTC added segwit though, i'm not sure it will ever run up again like it did in the past.

Nearly two and half years to shed the final couple of grand? It could do it by the end of this weekend. I doubt that would be the absolute bottom but I would fully expect bottoms to be in the bag way before then.

No idea if and when there'll be another high or whether it'll be that low or lower. I am confident that by that point things will bear zero resemblance to how they look at present.

Feb 2021 is definitely the most late bottom called I ever heard.

[cellard]

You posted this in early February:



With a closing price in 2018 around $5500, we will see how things go next month but I must say, I am pretty impressed. Now I am waiting to see the price in May 2019.... above $10,000? I am holding now, will sell if the price ever goes close to $10,000.

As I said previously, the ETF could make things more unpredictable...

Man if you plan to sell your coins in 2019 you will have serious troubles getting them back cheap in 2020.  But what do I know.  

Yes spot on, the bottom would be due on Feb 2021 and I think it would be ~2483

Snce BTC added segwit though, i'm not sure it will ever run up again like it did in the past.

Nearly two and half years to shed the final couple of grand? It could do it by the end of this weekend. I doubt that would be the absolute bottom but I would fully expect bottoms to be in the bag way before then.

No idea if and when there'll be another high or whether it'll be that low or lower. I am confident that by that point things will bear zero resemblance to how they look at present.

Feb 2021 is definitely the most late bottom called I ever heard.

I just don't see how it's possible, there's too much stuff in between happening. Like I said before, add in the equation BAKKT, which will enable Fidelity and ETF with potential trillions of dollars in speculation at stake. Then add in the halvening luring around reminding everyone that the supply is shrinking and the possibility to claim territory in the capital B blockchain will become a harder task.

Then how in hell can we still looking for a bottom in 2021? These things will probably raise the price to ATH way before the event happens due speculators trying to out-time each other.

[gentlemand]

Then how in hell can we still looking for a bottom in 2021? These things will probably raise the price to ATH way before the event happens due speculators trying to out-time each other.

This is the prediction of a man in lurve with Satoshi's Vision so I think it's safe to say that reason has left the room, quit its job and gone on holiday for a very lengthy time indeed.

[STT]

This permabear thinks we've exhausted the impulse down...Next stop 9500.

We've exhausted some of the shorts, if that was the sole cause of us falling but theres a few elements in play like something as simple as the holidays this week I think that could collect a few sellers together and cease normal activities for a few days perhaps.
The BCH split had an unexpected side effect on BTC also, catching people off guard was enough for it to lose that support level so that figures.

To regain 9500 would mean passing that previous good support level, its then a ceiling in effect as we cross it from below like broken ice; its harder to get out then fall in.    We can go to 9500 just not estimating it as especially easy

This is completely reckless behaviour. Going in all in on BCH (specially right now during the so called "hash wars" doesn't seem too bright too me. Decent predictions nontheless

Well they do say 'buy when theres blood on the streets', that maximum peak level to doubts.    'dont get shot and add your own' would maybe be the small print to that maxim

[sgbett]

This is completely reckless behaviour. Going in all in on BCH (specially right now during the so called "hash wars" doesn't seem too bright too me. Decent predictions nontheless, im just not quite sure about that move. Perhaps also overly pessimistic on the long term with a BAKKT+ETF+halving combo around 2020 which would easily move it to ATH.

I did it months ago, when they first split. I'm not doing it because I think BCH will have a better fiat price than BTC in the short run. Neither do I expect Bitcoin SV to be more than ABC for a little while yet. I flipped based on the fundamentals.

The fundamentals are what drive the s-curve of adoption - the s-curve marks market bottoms. The speculative run-ups on top of this are fun, but in the end will be dwarfed by the s-curve.

If your coin has no fundamentals, it has no s-curve. BTC is dead man walking segwit broke it. ABC have just shot themselves in both feet. First with OP_CDSV and now PoS hybrid. Bitcoin is secure / economically sound / legal. If you break any of these things you break Bitcoin.

Remember I am not all in SV because of CSW. Just like I wasn't all in BCH because of ver. I wasn't all-in BTC back in the day because of Andresen et al. The obsession with celebrity in Bitcoin is a red herring. Be that loving or hating any individual, group, organisation. I fell foul of this with block stream, I was just lucky that the fundamentals were aligned.

It' should be about the Bitcoin phenomenon described in the white paper. Accumulated PoW defines which chain is the correct out of the valid chains. SV is the only valid chain wrt to the fundamentals that I understand make up Bitcoin. YMMV.

My understanding has developed through literally years of studying it, and I'm sure that I don't know the half of it - but I know more than many. What I do know leads me to make the decisions I make. If I learn new info that changes my understanding, then I change my behaviour. Holding BTC because the prevailing wisdom at the time was always "hold" only remains good advice, if BTC doesn't change. Segwit changed it. Retaining Block size cap changed it. LN changes it. How bastardised do people want BTC to become before they re-evaluate their position? *shrugs*

Same happened with BCH. ABC *changes* it from dumb cash, to specifically designed to process contracts which make it legally a different thing.

[Febo]

Then how in hell can we still looking for a bottom in 2021? These things will probably raise the price to ATH way before the event happens due speculators trying to out-time each other.

This is the prediction of a man in lurve with Satoshi's Vision so I think it's safe to say that reason has left the room, quit its job and gone on holiday for a very lengthy time indeed.

Well since Satoshi vision is that Bitcoin and Monero and few more crypto have a big flaw. And that he will reveal that flaw at end of 2019 could bring us bottom at that time and not more then a year latter.

[sgbett]

This permabear thinks we've exhausted the impulse down...Next stop 9500.

We've exhausted some of the shorts, if that was the sole cause of us falling but theres a few elements in play like something as simple as the holidays this week I think that could collect a few sellers together and cease normal activities for a few days perhaps.
The BCH split had an unexpected side effect on BTC also, catching people off guard was enough for it to lose that support level so that figures.

To regain 9500 would mean passing that previous good support level, its then a ceiling in effect as we cross it from below like broken ice; its harder to get out then fall in.    We can go to 9500 just not estimating it as especially easy

This is completely reckless behaviour. Going in all in on BCH (specially right now during the so called "hash wars" doesn't seem too bright too me. Decent predictions nontheless

Well they do say 'buy when theres blood on the streets', that maximum peak level to doubts.    'dont get shot and add your own' would maybe be the small print to that maxim

I have come to admit, I may be wrong.

I honestly thought there would be a last hurrah for bitcoin, but the way things are going at the moment, I'm finding it harder and harder to believe that could be the case.

The way the price has broken down doesn't fit properly with the overall long term projection any more- looks like some other external factor is in play here. Maybe its sell off with the hash war, or maybe its because people are realising BTC isn't what it once was.

On the bright side, I'm always wrong, so maybe I'm wrong about this too and its just my "capitulation" that precedes the next run up.

Wild times. Oh, and BSV just flipped ABC for anyone not paying attention. Whodathunkit?

Imagine when it flips BTC. (I know many of you can't, but for those that can, think about it.... 30:1 right now....)

[Torque]

Oh, and BSV just flipped ABC for anyone not paying attention. Whodathunkit?

Wait, a shitcoin flipped another shitcoin? Oh snap, get CNBC on the line pronto!

Imagine when it flips BTC. (I know many of you can't, but for those that can, think about it.... 30:1 right now....)

Lololdelusionalollolol

[gentlemand]

Lololdelusionalollolol

It's a bit like watching your previously kindly grandfather bleach what's left of his hair blond, dump his wife, get a Brazilian and take up a new career as a camgirl on Chaturbate. Bewildering and a little melancholic as you stand back and watch it play out. 

[stelee68]

Lololdelusionalollolol

It's a bit like watching your previously kindly grandfather bleach what's left of his hair blond, dump his wife, get a Brazilian and take up a new career as a camgirl on Chaturbate. Bewildering and a little melancholic as you stand back and watch it play out. 

That's easy, we just need to watch a few episodes of "Keeping up with the Kard@#$shians" 

On a serious note, whats the next support level for BTC price? Any predictions?

[sgbett]

Hey Torque, 'member this?

I 'member.