Calling top at $16500 (New speculation: Guess the price 19 Feb 2021!)

[sgbett]

You wrote :

Your max downside is $1000

So you meant $10000 RIGHT?

When exactly end of the year -> set a date.

And we will be using Bitstamp right -> send a link.

Yes, because thats what "max downside" means. Its the maximum possible loss for you if you were to bet 0.1BTC because if the price goes to $10k and you have to pay me 0.1BTC that means you are $1000 worth of BTC out of pocket.

End of year means the end of the year. Thats when the clock strikes midnight Dec 31st 2018 (UTC). If at that point it never went below $10k on bitstamp. I pay you $1000 in BTC. Within 7 days.

If at any point prior to that it goes below $10,000 on bitstamp you send me $1000 in BCH. Within 7 days.

https://www.bitstamp.net (you had to ask for a link to bitstamp!?)

I fully realise that this is an entirely one way bet, because in the event you win I will pay, whereas when you lose I expect you to renege. You are an anonymous account, you haven't really got any reputation to consider. I am a bitcoin OG, a real person, with integrity and so if I lose I am compelled to go through with my promise.

Even knowing that to be likely, I'm still making the bet because that's how confident I am that I won't lose.

Hey BTC-Graphicdesigns! 'member this?

I 'member.

[1714006759]

1714006759

[1714006759]

1714006759

[1714006759]

1714006759

[Febo]

You wrote :

Your max downside is $1000

So you meant $10000 RIGHT?

When exactly end of the year -> set a date.

And we will be using Bitstamp right -> send a link.

Yes, because thats what "max downside" means. Its the maximum possible loss for you if you were to bet 0.1BTC because if the price goes to $10k and you have to pay me 0.1BTC that means you are $1000 worth of BTC out of pocket.

End of year means the end of the year. Thats when the clock strikes midnight Dec 31st 2018 (UTC). If at that point it never went below $10k on bitstamp. I pay you $1000 in BTC. Within 7 days.

If at any point prior to that it goes below $10,000 on bitstamp you send me $1000 in BCH. Within 7 days.

https://www.bitstamp.net (you had to ask for a link to bitstamp!?)

I fully realise that this is an entirely one way bet, because in the event you win I will pay, whereas when you lose I expect you to renege. You are an anonymous account, you haven't really got any reputation to consider. I am a bitcoin OG, a real person, with integrity and so if I lose I am compelled to go through with my promise.

Even knowing that to be likely, I'm still making the bet because that's how confident I am that I won't lose.

Hey BTC-Graphicdesigns! 'member this?

I 'member.

It seems that account was hacked and latter was probably banned. Since it was not logged in from April.  Maybe he made new account but might not tell us about it

[sgbett]

Lololdelusionalollolol

It's a bit like watching your previously kindly grandfather bleach what's left of his hair blond, dump his wife, get a Brazilian and take up a new career as a camgirl on Chaturbate. Bewildering and a little melancholic as you stand back and watch it play out. 

Even more bewildering when you look at the charts

So here we are a year later. We can reflect and see that a huge 11-month wedge that closed mid-november that showed support was around $6300. A break up at that point could have suggested that BTC uptrend would resume, we saw a break down though. Which confirms bearish outlook.

I think we now enter a year of confused sideways trading, gradually sliding downwards - my $2483 bottom call still in place.

However the caveat to all if this is that $2483 is the utility value of *Bitcoin*. The price of BTC is decoupling from the value of Bitcoin as it diverges in functionality.

The utility of BTC has declined, it is no longer Digital cash, it has not scaled to meet future demand. It is lost. The majority still HODLing are just speculating. As the speculators leave the price declines, and the only thing that would stop this, is when the price finally meets the utility value. In the past that utility value has caught the price dip, and bolstered it. As price followed the s-curve, this renewed interest from speculators, and the mania phase would repeat.

The $2483 utility value is for BSV. We are at that moment back in ~2010 when you found out some guy had invented digital cash, and it blew your mind. Everyone on slashdot thought you were an idiot, but it was so cheap... well, no harm in buying a few... That is happening now. BSV is grossly underpriced, the same way Bitcoin was back in the day. The whole of the internet, that is much smarter than you, is telling you that it's a scam and won't work, just like they said about Bitcoin back in the day. Which is ironic, because it is Bitcoin, from back in the day!

For anyone that cares about fundamentals, the detail of why BTC utility has been compromised. I would advise taking a long hard look at the history of Bitcoin, go back to old forum posts here and see how things were. Look at it's original design. Look at some of the disputes along the way about how it should be developed. Fixing what was broke and scaling was all that was needed, the design was great. Core took a different road, changing the fundamental design with segwit (ostensibly to scale) and introducing the notion of second layer LN being necessary (ahh that was what segwit was for). BCH fork was to save the chain so som guys could to stick to original plan (although now it seems clear that not everyone had the same idea what that was!). Now BSV continue to try and do the Bitcoin described in the white paper - the very same one that got me so hype back in the day. Isn't it odd that I have the same belief in bitcoin (P2P digital cash) as I did back then. A simple network, all on chain, massive scale. 10 years of consistency.... compare that to the flip flopping you see elsewhere....

The scam, is that people are still trying to tell you BTC is Bitcoin. Anyone that says otherwise is labelled as a lunatic, or a shill, or worse. Most couldn't tell an op code from a node

This is fair warning, BTC may "recover" in price, but it will never fulfil the potential it had when it was Bitcoin. The mantle has been passed. In that respect my $560k price target still applies we've just been set back about 5 years. Thats ok I'm patient.

[thecodebear]

Lololdelusionalollolol

It's a bit like watching your previously kindly grandfather bleach what's left of his hair blond, dump his wife, get a Brazilian and take up a new career as a camgirl on Chaturbate. Bewildering and a little melancholic as you stand back and watch it play out.  

Even more bewildering when you look at the charts

So here we are a year later. We can reflect and see that a huge 11-month wedge that closed mid-november that showed support was around $6300. A break up at that point could have suggested that BTC uptrend would resume, we saw a break down though. Which confirms bearish outlook.

I think we now enter a year of confused sideways trading, gradually sliding downwards - my $2483 bottom call still in place.

However the caveat to all if this is that $2483 is the utility value of *Bitcoin*. The price of BTC is decoupling from the value of Bitcoin as it diverges in functionality.

The utility of BTC has declined, it is no longer Digital cash, it has not scaled to meet future demand. It is lost. The majority still HODLing are just speculating. As the speculators leave the price declines, and the only thing that would stop this, is when the price finally meets the utility value. In the past that utility value has caught the price dip, and bolstered it. As price followed the s-curve, this renewed interest from speculators, and the mania phase would repeat.

The $2483 utility value is for BSV. We are at that moment back in ~2010 when you found out some guy had invented digital cash, and it blew your mind. Everyone on slashdot thought you were an idiot, but it was so cheap... well, no harm in buying a few... That is happening now. BSV is grossly underpriced, the same way Bitcoin was back in the day. The whole of the internet, that is much smarter than you, is telling you that it's a scam and won't work, just like they said about Bitcoin back in the day. Which is ironic, because it is Bitcoin, from back in the day!

For anyone that cares about fundamentals, the detail of why BTC utility has been compromised. I would advise taking a long hard look at the history of Bitcoin, go back to old forum posts here and see how things were. Look at it's original design. Look at some of the disputes along the way about how it should be developed. Fixing what was broke and scaling was all that was needed, the design was great. Core took a different road, changing the fundamental design with segwit (ostensibly to scale) and introducing the notion of second layer LN being necessary (ahh that was what segwit was for). BCH fork was to save the chain so som guys could to stick to original plan (although now it seems clear that not everyone had the same idea what that was!). Now BSV continue to try and do the Bitcoin described in the white paper - the very same one that got me so hype back in the day. Isn't it odd that I have the same belief in bitcoin (P2P digital cash) as I did back then. A simple network, all on chain, massive scale. 10 years of consistency.... compare that to the flip flopping you see elsewhere....

The scam, is that people are still trying to tell you BTC is Bitcoin. Anyone that says otherwise is labelled as a lunatic, or a shill, or worse. Most couldn't tell an op code from a node

This is fair warning, BTC may "recover" in price, but it will never fulfil the potential it had when it was Bitcoin. The mantle has been passed. In that respect my $560k price target still applies we've just been set back about 5 years. Thats ok I'm patient.

ugh not the BCH argument again. How long will people still continue to hold a candle for that DOA coin. On-chain scaling of a decentralized currency is not possible, unless the plan is to keep that currency very limited or not decentralized at all. 32mb, 128mb, 1gb blocks, none of those come close to what say Visa can do and it would end up no different than Visa anyway because it would be highly centralized. So great, the BCH/BSV crowd is out to remake Visa but not as efficient and where the consumer has to directly pay the fees on top of the price which already includes credit card fees prices built into it. Sounds like the worst idea ever.

Sorry but "A simple network, all on chain, massive scale" is a contradictory statement. So while you have offshoots of offshoots of Bitcoin chasing that fantasy, we have real Bitcoin actually moving towards massively scalable technology that is usable by the whole world, while staying true to the decentralized open public money concept at the core of Bitcoin. By the way a simple network with massive scale was never the intention of Bitcoin. Decentralized open secure p2p money was the intention of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is still going after that. Altcoins like BCH/BSV which are only alive because they include the "Bitcoin" brand name immediately abandoned the central purpose of Bitcoin when they were created.

Price wise, I'm 50/50 on if Bitcoin will break $3000 during this bottoming out its going through now. If it does I could see it dropping down to around $2500, so basically right around your prediction, and it wouldn't surprise me if it does break $3k. But it also wouldn't surprise me at all if the $3100 it hit in December ends up being the low from here on out. Either way things are looking great as a Bitcoin investor right now. While the BCH/BSV people are just praying their coins don't die out into irrelevance before the next BTC boom.

[sgbett]

I dunno when you got into this Bitcoin thing but by around 2015 all major sources of information were compromised, there was a massive disinformation campaign on social media, and everything that was said, is everything you just said. That's just me and my tinfoil hat tho right

Consider whether your correlation of price to relevance is skewing your value assessment.

In 2010 it was easier because the information available was the whitepaper and a bunch of slashdot geniuses that told you it just wouldn't work. It was easier to cut through and find facts back then. Still just as hard to swim against the tide of popular opinion. But thats where the opportunity is, when you have more information than everyone else.

Now it's a bit more complicated because the people that said it wouldn't work, took over the project and sold you something else, and now you think that will work. They are crypto wizards so they can be trusted.

I'm still here with my "antiquated" 2010 outlook that Bitcoin works. It always worked. Nothing has changed.

Remember this thread well.

[sgbett]

It some point you have to stop and ask yourself - Hang on, something is not right here?

The problem is it is a hard question to ask, and a harder question to answer. If your preconceptions lead you to conclude that I just flipped because I'm a bcash shill and i'm pumping my bags then more power to you. I've been more the honest about my actions leading up to the BTC top, told you that I sold early (I know not to try and catch tops). Check my post history, I've been consistent and honest for literally years. All this time I've studied and learned about bitcoin, its history, the tech, the economics, the legal aspects.

For those still open minded to what is really going on, my decision (initially) to finally let go of BTC after all those years preaching HODL mantra was filled with anguish and uncertainty, because I was an 'early adopter' again. Swimming against the tide, but inside me I knew things didn't add up with SegWit & LN.Of course, in time they will say "I was lucky". They said the same about Bitcoin. Never once did they bother to inform themselves though. At least now it should be becoming clearer, the decision should be getting easier day by day, providing you are looking at information, as opposed to news and opinion.

So I hope now as things are unfolding that (much as at the start of this thread, honestly go back and read its priceless!) people realise I'm not entirely full of crap. I could be wrong sure, but at least I will have been intellectually honest about it.

Honestly I want as many people as possible to get out of BTC before they get hurt. The point of Bitcoin for me has always been *everyone* can use it and *everyone* benefits. Yet BTC has been moving away from that for literally years. Fees, settlement, SegWit circumvention of PoW, all insidious changes that ostensibly seem to be for the better, but look at the big picture. Where is the utility driving the s-curve off adoption, if there is no underlying s-curve value, then what will springboard the next rally?

Don't get stung with dogmatic thinking, dogmatic thinking is what caused people to laugh at the notion BTC would ever again go below $10k.

Dogmatic thinking is what leads people to still think that LN is a magical scaling solution (it's not), that doesn't require custodial wallets (it does) and isn't just banking v2.0 (it is - it even said so in the white paper, but who reads those right?).

Dogmatic thinking is what makes people focus more on whether or not CSW is Satoshi, and less on what is Bitcoin.

If you are focusing on the former, you've been had, hoodwinked, distracted from the prize. The prize is valuable, so inevitably many will try to mislead you. The prize is Bitcoin, you just need to find it. I'm not going to tell you where to find it, you have to find it yourself. It's the only way.

Remember you are looking at the balance of probability, not beyond reasonable doubt. Perfect is the enemy of good. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is a duck. If someone tries to tell you, "aha, its not a duck because it has a lazy eye" ask yourself why they would deny the objectivity of the duck based on non duck criteria.

tl;dr - the bottom is in (dont expect any sudden moves though, could take months before it resolves). Make sure you are on the right train leaving the station. They will all leave together, but some will run out of steam long before the others.

[exstasie]

Honestly I want as many people as possible to get out of BTC before they get hurt. The point of Bitcoin for me has always been *everyone* can use it and *everyone* benefits. Yet BTC has been moving away from that for literally years.

Are you sure Bitcoin's price trajectory is based on what you think the point is? If it's been moving in the wrong direction for years and yet the 2017 bubble still occurred, what does that tell you?

Fees, settlement, SegWit circumvention of PoW, all insidious changes that ostensibly seem to be for the better, but look at the big picture. Where is the utility driving the s-curve off adoption, if there is no underlying s-curve value, then what will springboard the next rally?

I think it's silly to worry about this stuff too much. Bitcoin's economic design is experimental. The same applies to everything forked from it. Nobody knows for sure what the best design choices are/were and what protocol (if any) will see mass adoption. We'll only know in hindsight. I'm just enjoying the ride.

[Febo]

Don't get stung with dogmatic thinking, dogmatic thinking is what caused people to laugh at the notion BTC would ever again go below $10k.

You will not need to wait for this that long anymore. In 2021 and latter we will most likely not see a sub $10000 Bitcoin ever again. Also such days in second half of 2020 will be extremely rare.

[d5000]

Honestly I want as many people as possible to get out of BTC before they get hurt. The point of Bitcoin for me has always been *everyone* can use it and *everyone* benefits.

That's not solved if only owners of top-class hardware can run a full node.

Dogmatic thinking is what leads people to still think that LN is a magical scaling solution (it's not), that doesn't require custodial wallets (it does) and isn't just banking v2.0 (it is - it even said so in the white paper, but who reads those right?).

LN is "prepaid card 2.0", not banking 2.0. And the "2.0" in this case indicates that much less trust is required than with traditional solutions. LN is not magical, but it's also not the only technology that will lead to a better scaling Bitcoin.

tl;dr - the bottom is in (dont expect any sudden moves though, could take months before it resolves). Make sure you are on the right train leaving the station. They will all leave together, but some will run out of steam long before the others.

The bold phrase is imo the most important one of your post A bear that's recognizing a bottom could be a strong bullish signal.

I get it, for you the strong bullish signal is meant for BCash and friends (do you support ABC or SV, by the way?). I tend to disagree, for me BTC (Core) is still the better try.

[cryptjh]

Even more bewildering when you look at the charts

So here we are a year later. We can reflect and see that a huge 11-month wedge that closed mid-november that showed support was around $6300. A break up at that point could have suggested that BTC uptrend would resume, we saw a break down though. Which confirms bearish outlook.

I think we now enter a year of confused sideways trading, gradually sliding downwards - my $2483 bottom call still in place.

However the caveat to all if this is that $2483 is the utility value of *Bitcoin*. The price of BTC is decoupling from the value of Bitcoin as it diverges in functionality.

The utility of BTC has declined, it is no longer Digital cash, it has not scaled to meet future demand. It is lost. The majority still HODLing are just speculating. As the speculators leave the price declines, and the only thing that would stop this, is when the price finally meets the utility value. In the past that utility value has caught the price dip, and bolstered it. As price followed the s-curve, this renewed interest from speculators, and the mania phase would repeat.

The $2483 utility value is for BSV. We are at that moment back in ~2010 when you found out some guy had invented digital cash, and it blew your mind. Everyone on slashdot thought you were an idiot, but it was so cheap... well, no harm in buying a few... That is happening now. BSV is grossly underpriced, the same way Bitcoin was back in the day. The whole of the internet, that is much smarter than you, is telling you that it's a scam and won't work, just like they said about Bitcoin back in the day. Which is ironic, because it is Bitcoin, from back in the day!

For anyone that cares about fundamentals, the detail of why BTC utility has been compromised. I would advise taking a long hard look at the history of Bitcoin, go back to old forum posts here and see how things were. Look at it's original design. Look at some of the disputes along the way about how it should be developed. Fixing what was broke and scaling was all that was needed, the design was great. Core took a different road, changing the fundamental design with segwit (ostensibly to scale) and introducing the notion of second layer LN being necessary (ahh that was what segwit was for). BCH fork was to save the chain so som guys could to stick to original plan (although now it seems clear that not everyone had the same idea what that was!). Now BSV continue to try and do the Bitcoin described in the white paper - the very same one that got me so hype back in the day. Isn't it odd that I have the same belief in bitcoin (P2P digital cash) as I did back then. A simple network, all on chain, massive scale. 10 years of consistency.... compare that to the flip flopping you see elsewhere....

The scam, is that people are still trying to tell you BTC is Bitcoin. Anyone that says otherwise is labelled as a lunatic, or a shill, or worse. Most couldn't tell an op code from a node

This is fair warning, BTC may "recover" in price, but it will never fulfil the potential it had when it was Bitcoin. The mantle has been passed. In that respect my $560k price target still applies we've just been set back about 5 years. Thats ok I'm patient.

It's a great topic you got here, I just spend some time to read all of the post made here, I'm surprised to see that you think BSV should take over as the real bitcoin, or already did take over. Don't you think people will aband bitcoins or even crypto if bitcoin imploded and a fork coin of a fork coin out of bitcoin suddenly become the real bitcoin?

Most people who started buying bitcoins within the last 2 years don't even have that fork coin unless they bought it.
But great you still believe bitcoin "may "recover" in price"

[sgbett]

Honestly I want as many people as possible to get out of BTC before they get hurt. The point of Bitcoin for me has always been *everyone* can use it and *everyone* benefits. Yet BTC has been moving away from that for literally years.

Are you sure Bitcoin's price trajectory is based on what you think the point is? If it's been moving in the wrong direction for years and yet the 2017 bubble still occurred, what does that tell you?

Fees, settlement, SegWit circumvention of PoW, all insidious changes that ostensibly seem to be for the better, but look at the big picture. Where is the utility driving the s-curve off adoption, if there is no underlying s-curve value, then what will springboard the next rally?

I think it's silly to worry about this stuff too much. Bitcoin's economic design is experimental. The same applies to everything forked from it. Nobody knows for sure what the best design choices are/were and what protocol (if any) will see mass adoption. We'll only know in hindsight. I'm just enjoying the ride.

I'd disagree about it being sill to worry about this stuff. To me that sounds like taking a punt and hoping for the best. There is nothing inherently wrong with that, and it may well prove all my effort was for nothing - but each to their own

Since I got into bitcoin I've spent a lot of time seeking out information about it. How it works, how it's secured, what the potential consequences are for this change or that change. I've though about why I think it's valuable, why others might... the list goes on.

I think this gives you an edge in identifying what is going to work and what isn't. I know it sounds arrogant, but I like to think it was that attitude that helped me to recognise the potential of Bitcoin back in the day when everyone else that was equipped to grok it was just calling it out as a scam without really looking into it (see slashdot circa 2010-12)

IMHO there are several epiphanies that occur as you study bitcoin.

#1: Understanding the implications of the technology - how PoW and the consensus mechanism distributes trust, how cryptography is used to facilitate this. What the implication are with respect to digital cash without a trusted 3rd party. This is the first epiphany

#2: The incentive mechanism - how security is not black or whit but is a function of how much money/resource it takes to break something. Whilst the cost of defeating a security mechanism is greater than the value of the resource being protected one can consider that thing secure. This paradigm is leveraged by Bitcoin in conjunction with the cryptographic aspects above, to create a system that is "economically" secure. Indeed the very notion of 6 confirmations, is based on this fundamental concept. In reality 6 conf is way more than necessary for day to day (and in fact as the network gets bigger and harder to attack, zero conf is quite safe for low value tx).

#3: The legal status - this is most people's least favourite because it isn't a topic they are necessarily interested in, or comfortable with and because many that are into bitcoin arrived on the back of tearing down banks and the government. I have to admit, that side of things was a factor in my original attraction - I had thoughts of revolution. Now I understand I was wrong, I was naive. I understand now that as bad as the current system is, that Bitcoin will not prevail by attacking it head on. Instead, it will feed on that system like a parasite, until eventually it consumes the host. The way it will do that is by making itself immune to legislative attack. All of which is abhorrent to the ancaps, and libertarians that only see the simplistic "bitcoin is statist" rationale. It's much more subtle than that, bitcoin is not about destroying the state, it is in fact a mechanism by which the state can be held accountable. It does not allow secrecy. Secrecy is what gives those who are corrupt, the tools to be corrupt (state or otherwise).

#4: The Bitcoin network is not just a ledger - This was my most recent epiphany, and it comes from missing a big detail in #1. The SCRIPT language. Bitcoin is digital cash, that is intrinsically attached to the tx. The tx adjust the ledger, but a tx can do so much more - and this was available from day 1. The ability to leverage the distributed trust of the network to distribute data without reliance on a third party is the inevitable next step, and the payment for this is baked into the tx itself. This was possibly the most significant realisation.

So, I think it's important to understand those things, because I think that is what allows you to identify what Bitcoin is. It also then allows you to identify the flaws in coins that have tried to copy bitcoin but have changed things that compromise any of these fundamental properties.

The most difficult part is understanding yourself. It is inevitable that I have biases, and just recently I have spent a lot of time looking at how they may be affecting my judgement. Just today Daniel Krawisz posted a great link to a youtube video that covers this topic - clearly its using scientology as a means to get you onside, cos who would be hoodwinked by that, but that's the point he explains how the smartest people are. I spent a long time trying to think about the ways in which I could have been hoodwinked by BSV, its a tough job I tell you looking at your own beliefs, but I would encourage you to do so. Strip away the cognitive biases and figure out if its really Bitcoin that you are invested in. Or if you are emotionally invested in the culture, the community, the $$$ in your portfolio, your past, your ego.

I've said it before but selling BTC was the hardest thing I did (even then I was too afraid to dump it all, what if I was wrong, what a mug I would look, I should just HODL it always worked in the past etc etc) but it occurred to me that the pain I was feeling was cognitive dissonance. All of the HODL gang mentality was directly opposed to what my brain was telling me about what was going on with the refusal to increase blocksize, the apparent need for 'segwit', what the implications of LN were... they all made me feel sick... but I wanted to believe in Bitcoin.

Once I let go, that weight was lifted. Sure, it wasn't long before I had to do it all again with BCH/BSV split, but it was much easier the second time around as I hadn't got several years of time and effort invested.

I hope everyone does what is best for themselves, but whatever that is I hope it's because you believe in it fundamentally, and not because you just went with the crowd.

[sgbett]

It's a great topic you got here, I just spend some time to read all of the post made here, I'm surprised to see that you think BSV should take over as the real bitcoin, or already did take over. Don't you think people will aband bitcoins or even crypto if bitcoin imploded and a fork coin of a fork coin out of bitcoin suddenly become the real bitcoin?

Most people who started buying bitcoins within the last 2 years don't even have that fork coin unless they bought it.
But great you still believe bitcoin "may "recover" in price"

I think BSV *is* Bitcoin, but as you can see the market price indicates that everyone else doesn't agree. I think Bitcoin already imploded (when market dominance collapsed about jan/feb 2107). Its current price is just attachment/speculation.

Whilst market value is a great proxy for sentiment, I'm always mindful of that famous Ben Graham quote

So I think I will "weight" it out!

The speculative bubbles are always fun and exciting, but honestly the lows are the thing to watch. Every time BTC 'crashed' the bottom was higher than before. When I charted the bottoms, that's where I saw the s-curve of adoption starting to form.

Maybe it will do it again, and for everyone focused on $$$ profits that'll be great.

I think Bitcoin is so much more than flipping for fiat, especially with the rise of Metanet. Keep watching!

[sgbett]

Honestly I want as many people as possible to get out of BTC before they get hurt. The point of Bitcoin for me has always been *everyone* can use it and *everyone* benefits.

That's not solved if only owners of top-class hardware can run a full node.

Dogmatic thinking is what leads people to still think that LN is a magical scaling solution (it's not), that doesn't require custodial wallets (it does) and isn't just banking v2.0 (it is - it even said so in the white paper, but who reads those right?).

LN is "prepaid card 2.0", not banking 2.0. And the "2.0" in this case indicates that much less trust is required than with traditional solutions. LN is not magical, but it's also not the only technology that will lead to a better scaling Bitcoin.

tl;dr - the bottom is in (dont expect any sudden moves though, could take months before it resolves). Make sure you are on the right train leaving the station. They will all leave together, but some will run out of steam long before the others.

The bold phrase is imo the most important one of your post A bear that's recognizing a bottom could be a strong bullish signal.

I get it, for you the strong bullish signal is meant for BCash and friends (do you support ABC or SV, by the way?). I tend to disagree, for me BTC (Core) is still the better try.

By full-node I am going to assume you mean non-mining node. It's important to understand that distinction.

I could run a BSV non-mining-node if I want... the question is why would I? What value does it add over and above being able to inspect the public ledger via any number of third parties, chosen at random.

Do you think it would be easier to sybil/double spend a target that runs a non-mining-node, trusts that node implicitly (because its theirs!) and verifies using that node only. Or Person B who sees a payment in their 'lite-wallet' that double checks on blockchair, coinbase etc? I hope you see the implication here.

You only need to run a node if you are mining, because you need to verify entire blocks in order to know which you are going to build upon. This is to ensure you don't inadvertently build on a block that the majority of hash rejects, thus leaving you with the potential to be orphaned.

As for the "bear" label - I am the original permabull! I don't remember many calling 6-7 figures before me. That's still pretty much inevitable imho, but I think that the harm done by not simply scaling bitcoin and improving the base protocol (like BSV is doing) has caused considerable setback in the timescale. Look to 2025-30 for the "endgame" in that post.

Still, It doesn't mean I don't see market cycles, and it definitely doesn't mean I will blindly apply that valuation to *BTC* - it only applies to *Bitcoin* which for me BTC is in name only. I fear for those blindly holding BTC in the hopes it will just be business as usual. In every prior run up it was Bitcoin. Now it is not.

So I think its fair for you to consider by bottom call bullish, it wasn't a terrible call considering the recent price action

[JohnTask]

Hey sgbett, just replying to let you know that I greatly appreciate your posts. I have been telling people around me that BSV is actually the *real* bitcoin for months now and it's really good to see that one of the users I appreciate most on these boards seems to have come to the same conclusion. Let's hope we made the right choice.

[gentlemand]

Hey sgbett, just replying to let you know that I greatly appreciate your posts. I have been telling people around me that BSV is actually the *real* bitcoin for months now and it's really good to see that one of the users I appreciate most on these boards seems to have come to the same conclusion. Let's hope we made the right choice.

What makes Bitcoin 'real' is ever so slightly more than the code. If that was the case you could run the 2009 version on your own Commodore 64 and shout at everyone that only you have the real Bitcoin.

SV is a fork of a fork. It's mined and might be developed, though I can't detect all that much, by one entity which makes it one of the least real iterations possible according to the principles of the original's creation.

Cherish it all you like. Plan accordingly for ongoing disdain from the majority.

[sgbett]

Hey sgbett, just replying to let you know that I greatly appreciate your posts. I have been telling people around me that BSV is actually the *real* bitcoin for months now and it's really good to see that one of the users I appreciate most on these boards seems to have come to the same conclusion. Let's hope we made the right choice.

Indeed, being Bitcoin might not be enough to save it! Let's hope it prevails. (Thanks for the kind words too!)

What makes Bitcoin 'real' is ever so slightly more than the code. If that was the case you could run the 2009 version on your own Commodore 64 and shout at everyone that only you have the real Bitcoin.

SV is a fork of a fork. It's mined and might be developed, though I can't detect all that much, by one entity which makes it one of the least real iterations possible according to the principles of the original's creation.

Cherish it all you like. Plan accordingly for ongoing disdain from the majority.

I agree, it's more than code.

Mined by 1 entity... let's try to remain honest! https://sv.coin.dance/block

It certainly seems that there is a very vocal majority, pouring scorn on BSV. So really nothing has changed, people have always thought they knew better and that Bitcoin was going to fail!

I'm amazed that these people are still so in the dark about BTC, I don't ascribe malice here, I suspect most are just speculators that are wed to their position - seeing Bitcoin not as p2p digital cash, but as some kind of get-rich quick trading vehicle. That's a really difficult bias to check.

[thecodebear]

OP did a good job calling near the top and how are it would fall back in 2017. But obviously way off the mark on the newer bottom call. By Feb 2021 the price will probably be 10x that $2483 prediction.

Glad to see we are out of the bottom now and a few days into the new bull run!

[sgbett]

OP did a good job calling near the top and how are it would fall back in 2017. But obviously way off the mark on the newer bottom call. By Feb 2021 the price will probably be 10x that $2483 prediction.

Glad to see we are out of the bottom now and a few days into the new bull run!

Oh I don't doubt this could go all the way to 10k, but this not a new run-up, and I don't think that was really the bottom.

Look back to Nov 2018 when I posted this chart...



It's a little over simplified but is a broad representation of whats to come.

We'll track back up to around 9.5 but it won't stick and we'll need to come all the way back down to consolidate in the low 3s and then probably even lower as the last hopefuls are shaken out. Thats when you get your $2500 bottom.

From their it's anyone's guess what will happen, but you can guess I've got my very own sponsored by BSV-Bias outlook

So the BTC chain is still crippled. LN is a dead end, SW was built purely for LN. So the only thing left is side chains.

Everyone wanted side chains when they signed up for bitcoin right? Nobody wanted p2p digital cash. I remember It as clear as... oh wait.

Of course they didn't. We all used to think Bitcoin it was great (~2013 the golden era, survived the $32 crash, new ATH, adoption on the up companies taking it seriously!). You would show your mates in the pub, check it out download this wallet i'll send you some BTC, you'd ping it over and it would be ther in a jiffy and you'd say "no banks" and they'd be like. woah!

Then everyone started doing it, and like any good company that has exploding tech that is going to take over the world The Bitcoin Core team got together and planned for a capacity upgrade in plenty of time for... oh no, whats that, we can't scale? really because you sai... and then there were more reasons and fear, and Blockstream came, and there were Hong Kong meetings and they baited with 2-4-8 and then switched to SWSF&LN. Be done in 18 months they said, pinky swear.

Ah happy times when I was a rube. I remember when Josh at BFL got me like that, 2 weeks they said. By the time it got here (over a year late) hash rate has exploded so much that my 15BTC miner managed to get 2 BTC in the 6 months I ran it, before it became a door stop. Did I learn!? Hell no, there is bitcoins to be mined, these miners are waaaaay better. Rinse and repeat, only this time with a refund. Broke even on that. Try a different company... KNC miner told me yeah, no worries we got your miner right here... they didn't, lucky for me BTC was tanking, I got a refund... in BTC.

For others it was Trendon shavers BTCST. (By now I wasn't having any of it). So yeah the block stream stitch up had alarm bells all over it.

Anyway people leverage other people's greed as a means to control them. By the time 2021 rolls around and you've been through your second year of crypto winter, you'll believe anything that you are told by the Bitcoin wizards, if it sounds like it might make your BTC go back up. I mean look how little it took to convince people LN was the answer, despite all the warnings... the white paper explicitly told you it was a custodial network, that it needed massive blocks (which core were never willing to do). That it introduced a bunch of counterparts risk. People. Wanted. To. Beleive.

But WTF do I know.

GLHF!

[Torque]

Oh I don't doubt this could go all the way to 10k, but this not a new run-up, and I don't think that was really the bottom.

My my you sound so.... unsure now.  

We'll track back up to around 9.5 but it won't stick and we'll need to come all the way back down to consolidate in the low 3s and then probably even lower as the last hopefuls are shaken out. That's when you get your $2500 bottom.

I'm betting you're wrong.

From their it's anyone's guess what will happen, but you can guess I've got my very own sponsored by BSV-Bias outlook

But of course you do, BSV-bias shill.

So the BTC chain is still crippled. LN is a dead end

Wrong again, actually LN is growing and thriving like mad. BTC chain fully intact and secure. Quit spreading lies and disinformation.

Everyone wanted side chains when they signed up for bitcoin right? Nobody wanted p2p digital cash. I remember It as clear as... oh wait.

LN is completely optional, you can still p2p digital cash to anyone and the transaction fees are lowest they've ever been.

But WTF do I know.

Exactly  

[Bitcoinaire]

tl;dr - the bottom is in (dont expect any sudden moves though, could take months before it resolves).

Oh I don't doubt this could go all the way to 10k, but this not a new run-up, and I don't think that was really the bottom.