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Author Topic: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!)  (Read 20553 times)
figmentofmyass
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June 23, 2019, 06:07:22 AM
 #441

When those 2,5 coins come in that will be another 3.8x which would give you a total return of just over 37x the amount of bitcoin you have if you had just held them the whole time. That's what you should be thinking if you believe BTC is bitcoin. Those are the moves you should be making.

Begin a bit out on the exact price, or the exact timing doesn't matter when you are following long term market trends.

what price does the market need to hit before you give up on $2500? let's say, hypothetically, that $3100s was the bottom and this is a bull market after all. are you gonna wait until a new ATH to capitulate?

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thecodebear
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June 23, 2019, 07:33:02 PM
 #442

When those 2,5 coins come in that will be another 3.8x which would give you a total return of just over 37x the amount of bitcoin you have if you had just held them the whole time. That's what you should be thinking if you believe BTC is bitcoin. Those are the moves you should be making.

Begin a bit out on the exact price, or the exact timing doesn't matter when you are following long term market trends.

what price does the market need to hit before you give up on $2500? let's say, hypothetically, that $3100s was the bottom and this is a bull market after all. are you gonna wait until a new ATH to capitulate?

He's already waited this long (6 months since the bottom, 3 months since the bull market started). If he hasn't given up his idea yet why would he ever? Well his title says the bottom will be Feb 2021, so I suppose he'll keep this nonsense prediction going until then, at which point the current bull market may actually be over and bitcoin could be in the early stages of the next bear market by then haha.
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June 24, 2019, 01:55:49 PM
 #443

When those 2,5 coins come in that will be another 3.8x which would give you a total return of just over 37x the amount of bitcoin you have if you had just held them the whole time. That's what you should be thinking if you believe BTC is bitcoin. Those are the moves you should be making.

Begin a bit out on the exact price, or the exact timing doesn't matter when you are following long term market trends.

what price does the market need to hit before you give up on $2500? let's say, hypothetically, that $3100s was the bottom and this is a bull market after all. are you gonna wait until a new ATH to capitulate?

He's already waited this long (6 months since the bottom, 3 months since the bull market started). If he hasn't given up his idea yet why would he ever? Well his title says the bottom will be Feb 2021, so I suppose he'll keep this nonsense prediction going until then, at which point the current bull market may actually be over and bitcoin could be in the early stages of the next bear market by then haha.

That's the thing about long term forecasts. You call it a bull market, I'm calling it a bounce. What you still fail to acknowledge is that whatever label you want to give it, it is following the pattern I said it would back in feb 2018.

So yes, I'm ok with being $1000 out or so on the final rollover, I'm ok with being a few weeks out with the timing. They are rounding errors. You need to zoom out.

You see...



I see...



It remind me of that old saying about not being able to see the wood for the trees.

Where are any of y'all predictions btw? what's the next top? will there be a correction... come on now share your insights Smiley

It's really easy to post image macros (that then become painfully, embarrassingly wrong) about someone else's forecast when you feel butthurt that number may not go up as you like. 

Not so easy to post consistently correct calls on long term market behaviour.

"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto
*my posts are not investment advice*
exstasie
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June 24, 2019, 08:03:35 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)
 #444

That's the thing about long term forecasts. You call it a bull market, I'm calling it a bounce. What you still fail to acknowledge is that whatever label you want to give it, it is following the pattern I said it would back in feb 2018.

So yes, I'm ok with being $1000 out or so on the final rollover, I'm ok with being a few weeks out with the timing. They are rounding errors. You need to zoom out.

That doesn't answer the question. Any respectable analysis needs to have a point at which it's invalidated by price action. Clearly being off by a couple thousand bucks isn't enough (for you) to invalidate your analysis. What level will? Are you going to keep digging your heels if price is hitting $15K? $20K?

This is not meant as an insult. I'm just curious what your contingency plan is. Every good trader has a contingency plan.

Where are any of y'all predictions btw? what's the next top? will there be a correction... come on now share your insights Smiley

Some recent calls from me:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5076667.msg48694087#msg48694087
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5147605.msg51228813#msg51228813
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg51551904#msg51551904

I didn't hesitate flipping positions when $6K was cut through like butter. That worked out quite well. I'm curious at what point you are willing to do the same, or if you'll just keep digging your heels in.

I'm betting on a 35-40% correction at some point, perhaps off the $13K area, or possibly even off this $11,300 level. I don't see strong enough signs yet of a major top though. I prefer not to predict what will happen. It's better to react to the market.

I stopped trying to call the top $5,000 ago. The top will be apparent in hindsight. In the meantime, the trend is your friend.

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June 24, 2019, 09:10:51 PM
 #445

That's the thing about long term forecasts. You call it a bull market, I'm calling it a bounce. What you still fail to acknowledge is that whatever label you want to give it, it is following the pattern I said it would back in feb 2018.

So yes, I'm ok with being $1000 out or so on the final rollover, I'm ok with being a few weeks out with the timing. They are rounding errors. You need to zoom out.

That doesn't answer the question. Any respectable analysis needs to have a point at which it's invalidated by price action. Clearly being off by a couple thousand bucks isn't enough (for you) to invalidate your analysis. What level will? Are you going to keep digging your heels if price is hitting $15K? $20K?

This is not meant as an insult. I'm just curious what your contingency plan is. Every good trader has a contingency plan.

Where are any of y'all predictions btw? what's the next top? will there be a correction... come on now share your insights Smiley

Some recent calls from me:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5076667.msg48694087#msg48694087
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5147605.msg51228813#msg51228813
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg51551904#msg51551904

I didn't hesitate flipping positions when $6K was cut through like butter. That worked out quite well. I'm curious at what point you are willing to do the same, or if you'll just keep digging your heels in.

I'm betting on a 35-40% correction at some point, perhaps off the $13K area, or possibly even off this $11,300 level. I don't see strong enough signs yet of a major top though. I prefer not to predict what will happen. It's better to react to the market.

I stopped trying to call the top $5,000 ago. The top will be apparent in hindsight. In the meantime, the trend is your friend.

You seem to have your head screwed on, unlike some others commenting Wink

I don't really "trade" - especially the short term - if I had done I would have 37x returns from the initial call back in 2017 to sell at 16,5 (then later buying back at 4 and selling again at 9,5). I didn't ... regrets, not really - risk of holding BTC is too great for me.

But as it happens I flipped my BTC a while back, for BCH then flipped those for BSV. I'm "invested" in what I believe in. I think if people still think BTC is Bitcoin then they should invest accordingly.

As for contingency?  I still have a little exposure to BTC via an ETF. I know how irrational markets can be Smiley


"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto
*my posts are not investment advice*
Dogboy714
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June 25, 2019, 06:07:15 AM
 #446

BSV? Yikes. Money go bye bye...
sgbett
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June 25, 2019, 09:37:01 AM
 #447

A story in 3 quotes...

It won't even break $6k this year - $9k is pure fantasy land. Bear markets last a LONG time after parabolic moves...

You might want to look at some of his other charts on Trading View - just sayin' - he's running at 0% accuracy so far but I'm sure he could get lucky one time?

BSV? Yikes. Money go bye bye...


"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto
*my posts are not investment advice*
thecodebear
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June 26, 2019, 04:06:39 AM
Last edit: June 26, 2019, 04:17:24 AM by thecodebear
 #448

When those 2,5 coins come in that will be another 3.8x which would give you a total return of just over 37x the amount of bitcoin you have if you had just held them the whole time. That's what you should be thinking if you believe BTC is bitcoin. Those are the moves you should be making.

Begin a bit out on the exact price, or the exact timing doesn't matter when you are following long term market trends.

what price does the market need to hit before you give up on $2500? let's say, hypothetically, that $3100s was the bottom and this is a bull market after all. are you gonna wait until a new ATH to capitulate?

He's already waited this long (6 months since the bottom, 3 months since the bull market started). If he hasn't given up his idea yet why would he ever? Well his title says the bottom will be Feb 2021, so I suppose he'll keep this nonsense prediction going until then, at which point the current bull market may actually be over and bitcoin could be in the early stages of the next bear market by then haha.

That's the thing about long term forecasts. You call it a bull market, I'm calling it a bounce. What you still fail to acknowledge is that whatever label you want to give it, it is following the pattern I said it would back in feb 2018.

So yes, I'm ok with being $1000 out or so on the final rollover, I'm ok with being a few weeks out with the timing. They are rounding errors. You need to zoom out.

You see...



I see...



It remind me of that old saying about not being able to see the wood for the trees.

Where are any of y'all predictions btw? what's the next top? will there be a correction... come on now share your insights Smiley

It's really easy to post image macros (that then become painfully, embarrassingly wrong) about someone else's forecast when you feel butthurt that number may not go up as you like.  

Not so easy to post consistently correct calls on long term market behaviour.


Welp, your prediction is getting more wrong by the day. It's a 300% bounce now...haha quite the bounce! Will it still be a bounce at 15k? How about 20k? 40k? 60k? Now that 9500 has been blow away by several almost 3000 are you beginning to see how ridiculous it is to say bitcoin is still in a bear market when the bottom was half a year ago? You aren't bothered by the fact that such a "bounce" has never before occurred because every single time it wasn't a bounce but a bull market? You aren't concerned that your down arrow down leading into a bounce actually happened over a year ago, which corresponds with how it happened in 2014 as well, rather than you having to draw a weird really long downward line that is many times longer than the one in the previous bear market. And then you label this past bear market as "Tether". Sorry buddy, there was no tether event that caused the bear market.

Your head in the sand mentality to this bull market is more and more hilarious as the bull market drags on.
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June 26, 2019, 09:20:51 AM
 #449

Everything you questioned has already been answered. I've posted several times on how, as the number of market participants and/or market cap rises. The greater the momentum in the market. It's all proceeding as I expected

Yes 12,5 today is a surprise, but then if you are honestly engaging in discussion then you would remember I was equally surprised when the first bounce didn't go to 15,5 (instead stalling at just under 11)

Go back the the start and look at each run-up in order - you all see they play out over longer and longer timescales. a 3k error here is 25% margin of error. That is way better then thinking you are in a bull market, and buying now and seeing a 80% loss over next couple years.

Anyway thats the thing with long term forecasts, you have to put up with countless short term thinkers telling you how correct they are whilst the moves play out. Thats OK, I've been here before. The vast majority of people are always wrong/late and during the transition you just have to shut out the noise.

Remember BTC still doesn't have any fundamental value, and is being turned into something that the government has historically shut down *every single time* it was "invented" int the past: anonymous e-cash.

When the music stops. You better be ready.

"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto
*my posts are not investment advice*
figmentofmyass
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June 26, 2019, 09:42:42 AM
 #450

Remember BTC still doesn't have any fundamental value, and is being turned into something that the government has historically shut down *every single time* it was "invented" int the past: anonymous e-cash.

When the music stops. You better be ready.

what are you saying, major governments are gonna ban bitcoin? it won't happen. they're smart enough to know it'll make them look impotent and foolish when they fail. past attempts at anonymous e-cash were centralized and could easily be shut down by the USA government. bitcoin can't be taken down like that and they know it.

sgbett
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June 26, 2019, 02:01:08 PM
 #451

Remember BTC still doesn't have any fundamental value, and is being turned into something that the government has historically shut down *every single time* it was "invented" int the past: anonymous e-cash.

When the music stops. You better be ready.

what are you saying, major governments are gonna ban bitcoin? it won't happen. they're smart enough to know it'll make them look impotent and foolish when they fail. past attempts at anonymous e-cash were centralized and could easily be shut down by the USA government. bitcoin can't be taken down like that and they know it.

I said 2 things, the second of which was that govt has always shut down *anonymous* cash citing its link to crime. Not the anarchist "but the cops tryin' ta steal muh weed" type crime. The human trafficking, child pornography type crime.

Take from that what you will. I'm not telling you to do anything.

The elephant in the room though, is the first thing.

What is the fundamental value of BTC as an anonymous currency? and why would BTC core pursue this in light of  historical precedent?

I know "number go up" is incredibly alluring, but try to reconcile that with a sense of what you are actually investing in, and how sustainable that might be. If everyone is buying to sell higher to someone else then who is the someone else at the end of the rainbow? What was the point in Bitcoin in the first place?

"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto
*my posts are not investment advice*
fabiorem
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June 26, 2019, 04:20:30 PM
 #452

BTC still doesn't have any fundamental value


Tell that to the electrical companies.
figmentofmyass
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June 26, 2019, 05:47:07 PM
 #453

I said 2 things, the second of which was that govt has always shut down *anonymous* cash citing its link to crime. Not the anarchist "but the cops tryin' ta steal muh weed" type crime. The human trafficking, child pornography type crime.

Take from that what you will. I'm not telling you to do anything.

The elephant in the room though, is the first thing.

What is the fundamental value of BTC as an anonymous currency? and why would BTC core pursue this in light of  historical precedent?

that's already been pointed out.

Quote
past attempts at anonymous e-cash were centralized and could easily be shut down by the USA government. bitcoin can't be taken down like that and they know it.

so in concrete terms, what do you think is gonna happen? i'm not suggesting you are "telling me to do anything". i just want to clarify that you think governments can shut down bitcoin like they did liberty reserve?

the beautiful thing about governments is they are extremely competitive. geopolitics and all that. if one government tries to clamp down on bitcoin and bitcoin services, capital and a quickly growing business sector will simply flee the country for greener pastures.

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June 26, 2019, 11:16:13 PM
 #454

I said 2 things, the second of which was that govt has always shut down *anonymous* cash citing its link to crime. Not the anarchist "but the cops tryin' ta steal muh weed" type crime. The human trafficking, child pornography type crime.

Take from that what you will. I'm not telling you to do anything.

The elephant in the room though, is the first thing.

What is the fundamental value of BTC as an anonymous currency? and why would BTC core pursue this in light of  historical precedent?

that's already been pointed out.

Quote
past attempts at anonymous e-cash were centralized and could easily be shut down by the USA government. bitcoin can't be taken down like that and they know it.

so in concrete terms, what do you think is gonna happen? i'm not suggesting you are "telling me to do anything". i just want to clarify that you think governments can shut down bitcoin like they did liberty reserve?

the beautiful thing about governments is they are extremely competitive. geopolitics and all that. if one government tries to clamp down on bitcoin and bitcoin services, capital and a quickly growing business sector will simply flee the country for greener pastures.

You got it all figured out ain’t even no point asking questions.

One might say “that's already been pointed out”

"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto
*my posts are not investment advice*
sgbett
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June 27, 2019, 04:31:24 PM
 #455


"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto
*my posts are not investment advice*
BitcoinBubba
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June 28, 2019, 12:28:38 AM
 #456

About time for you to bounce
sgbett
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June 28, 2019, 12:39:26 AM
 #457

About time for you to bounce

All about that coefficient of restitution

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June 28, 2019, 12:56:41 AM
 #458

In all honesty, what percentage do you still believe your prediction?  50/50?  There has got to be some serious doubt by now, no?
Febo
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June 28, 2019, 08:57:14 PM
Last edit: January 16, 2020, 02:16:53 AM by Febo
 #459

..., and this capitulation never felt like a real capitulation compared to the one in 2015.

This is not true. They were quite similar. But is normal that cant be alike. Price dropped almost the same % from ATH.  Bottom was reached at exactly the same time after the hash rate drop.  Yes that this bottom happened few months earlier.  Yes that you felt different, since you lived one already and you are financially way better situated then back then. Whoever is still waiting for bottom is delusional. In upcoming years we will reach new ATH and after that bottom that will be most likely higher then last ATH. I am pretty much sure we will not see under $10000 BTC in 2020 and after. Not sure, since is hard to be sure in Bitcoin, but pretty sure.  

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sgbett
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July 01, 2019, 05:40:16 PM
 #460

..., and this capitulation never felt like a real capitulation compared to the one in 2015.

This is not true. They were quite similar. But is normal that cant be alike. Price dropped almost the same % from ATH.  Bottom was reached at exactly the same time after the hash rate drop.  Yes that this bottom happened few months earlier.  Yes that you felt different, since you lived one already and you are financially way better situated then back then. Whoever is still waiting for bottom is delusional. In upcoming years we will reach new ATH and after that bottom that will be most likely higher then last ATH. I am pretty much sure we will not see under $10000 BTC in 2020 and after. Not sure, since is hard to be sure in Bitcoin, but pretty sure. 

You really can't see the possibility?


"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto
*my posts are not investment advice*
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