Calling top at $16500 (New speculation: Guess the price 19 Feb 2021!)

[sgbett]

Amazing how the merest hint of toeing the party line and all the haters suddenly got nothing to say. I think the AI needs tweaking.

[1713888037]

1713888037

[1713888037]

1713888037

[1713888037]

1713888037

[STT]

A very broad view stretching upto 3 years like this is going to have to be quite elastic with the boundaries.   It seems from the chart above we could revisit last summers highs, I'd agree if we meet that point and it goes onto becomes a lower high we can say we have a bearish point on a wider time frame.    After an accumulation of these signals the arguments weight might shift over to your bearish belief on BTC price.
   Do you get any of what Tone Vays said on 4k being quite probable this year, I believe he states this can happen in the next few months.

[sgbett]

A very broad view stretching upto 3 years like this is going to have to be quite elastic with the boundaries.   It seems from the chart above we could revisit last summers highs, I'd agree if we meet that point and it goes onto becomes a lower high we can say we have a bearish point on a wider time frame.    After an accumulation of these signals the arguments weight might shift over to your bearish belief on BTC price.
   Do you get any of what Tone Vays said on 4k being quite probable this year, I believe he states this can happen in the next few months.

Was surprised to hear Tone with such a low target, as I always had him pegged as being more bullish due to his BTC-maximalism tendancies!

While I think short/medium movement seems to be upwards, I don't get a sense of it being the start of the next run-up. It would need a proper capitulate bottom and long accumulation for one of those imho.

So I would still say a macro bear trend until 2021, then we will see whether the BTC bull still has legs, or whether something terminal occurs

[exstasie]

Was surprised to hear Tone with such a low target, as I always had him pegged as being more bullish due to his BTC-maximalism tendancies!

Tone Vays occupies a weird niche. Yes he's a BTC maximalist, but he's also sort of a perma-bear. He's constantly shorting uptrends. I can't remember the last time he actually forecast a macro bull trend.

It would need a proper capitulate bottom and long accumulation for one of those imho.

A year ago, I was saying the same thing. "We need another capitulation and long term accumulation bottom just like 2015." I don't think that's actually true anymore. We were just conditioned by the 2014-2015 bear market to expect that.

[Torque]

It would need a proper capitulate bottom and long accumulation for one of those imho.

A year ago, I was saying the same thing. "We need another capitulation and long term accumulation bottom just like 2015." I don't think that's actually true anymore. We were just conditioned by the 2014-2015 bear market to expect that.

But...bbut...you already had a proper capitulation. It was that massive dump that started on 11-11-18. When the smoke cleared the float price went from ~$6500 down to $3200. Price cut in half, guys.   Also, trading volatility cratered and stayed dead for 3 straight months.

[exstasie]

It would need a proper capitulate bottom and long accumulation for one of those imho.

A year ago, I was saying the same thing. "We need another capitulation and long term accumulation bottom just like 2015." I don't think that's actually true anymore. We were just conditioned by the 2014-2015 bear market to expect that.

But...bbut...you already had a proper capitulation. It was that massive dump that started on 11-11-18. When the smoke cleared the float price went from ~$6500 down to $3200. Price cut in half, guys.  

Well that covers the capitulation part, sure.

Also, trading volatility cratered and stayed dead for 3 straight months.

Compared to 9 months ranging at the bottom in 2015. That's the "long term accumulation" part. A lot of experienced traders (including me) were blindsided by the speed of the recovery in Q1 last year. Look at this shit:

As for what's "causing" this? I would say it's little more than seller exhaustion and relief rallying. Supply has really dried up since the December crash. If we break the February highs and head to $5K-$6K, I would still just call it a short squeeze before we bleed back down to the $3Ks again. This is how long term accumulation ranges usually work. That's where I think we are, rather than the true beginning of a bull market.

Or this thread from mikeywith. When the market cut through $6K like butter, we had to change our tunes. I took that experience as a hard lesson about recency bias.

A year later, sgbett still hasn't changed his tune.

[sgbett]

It would need a proper capitulate bottom and long accumulation for one of those imho.

A year ago, I was saying the same thing. "We need another capitulation and long term accumulation bottom just like 2015." I don't think that's actually true anymore. We were just conditioned by the 2014-2015 bear market to expect that.

But...bbut...you already had a proper capitulation. It was that massive dump that started on 11-11-18. When the smoke cleared the float price went from ~$6500 down to $3200. Price cut in half, guys.  

Well that covers the capitulation part, sure.

Also, trading volatility cratered and stayed dead for 3 straight months.

Compared to 9 months ranging at the bottom in 2015. That's the "long term accumulation" part. A lot of experienced traders (including me) were blindsided by the speed of the recovery in Q1 last year. Look at this shit:

As for what's "causing" this? I would say it's little more than seller exhaustion and relief rallying. Supply has really dried up since the December crash. If we break the February highs and head to $5K-$6K, I would still just call it a short squeeze before we bleed back down to the $3Ks again. This is how long term accumulation ranges usually work. That's where I think we are, rather than the true beginning of a bull market.

Or this thread from mikeywith. When the market cut through $6K like butter, we had to change our tunes. I took that experience as a hard lesson about recency bias.

A year later, sgbett still hasn't changed his tune.

Yeah I don't trade so short term isn't my thing (I lean towards thinking its more a random walk than anything)

I've seen many a swing in a secular market, that people call as being a sure sign the top/bottom is in and we are reversing... I've seen many a rekt margin trader too

This current upswing is nice and all, but it looks (to me at least) very unlike "the next run-up". 10k seems *really fragile*... but what would I know. Just guessing like the rest of y'all

[sgbett]

Isn't it funny how something always comes up!?

[Wexlike]

Isn't it funny how something always comes up!?

It really is

[Blockchain0106]

Isn't it funny how something always comes up!?

He sgbett we recently break below 200 week MA and hold support at 300 week MA in the history of bitcoin first time we touch 300 week & start bounce of that level what do you think now..? still ABC Elite Wave Correction  or TIME will tel the Price..?

[sgbett]

Isn't it funny how something always comes up!?

He sgbett we recently break below 200 week MA and hold support at 300 week MA in the history of bitcoin first time we touch 300 week & start bounce of that level what do you think now..? still ABC Elite Wave Correction  or TIME will tel the Price..?

I think my long term forecast is back in play... right on track for it to go sub 3k in the coming year...

There will be ups and downs, there always is - and they *always* keep people from seeing the macro picture. January of this year is a perfect example, a month long bull trap. A rise that made *no* sense. Everyone bought it though... literally! lol

[thecodebear]

Isn't it funny how something always comes up!?

He sgbett we recently break below 200 week MA and hold support at 300 week MA in the history of bitcoin first time we touch 300 week & start bounce of that level what do you think now..? still ABC Elite Wave Correction  or TIME will tel the Price..?

I think my long term forecast is back in play... right on track for it to go sub 3k in the coming year...

There will be ups and downs, there always is - and they *always* keep people from seeing the macro picture. January of this year is a perfect example, a month long bull trap. A rise that made *no* sense. Everyone bought it though... literally! lol

Oh god you're still trying to push this prediction haha wow. It took a worldwide all-market panic sell crash to even get Bitcoin to go just under $4000 for a few minutes, upon which it immediately rebounded $1000, and now its back to almost 3 times your predicted price like 5 weeks later. Come on give this up already dude. Your prediction was dead in the water a year ago. Given that not even the panic crash could bring Bitcoin anywhere near this price, not even the bottom of the 2018 bear market crash could bring it under $3000, your prediction is pure fantasy.

[JayJuanGee]

Isn't it funny how something always comes up!?

He sgbett we recently break below 200 week MA and hold support at 300 week MA in the history of bitcoin first time we touch 300 week & start bounce of that level what do you think now..? still ABC Elite Wave Correction  or TIME will tel the Price..?

I think my long term forecast is back in play... right on track for it to go sub 3k in the coming year...

There will be ups and downs, there always is - and they *always* keep people from seeing the macro picture. January of this year is a perfect example, a month long bull trap. A rise that made *no* sense. Everyone bought it though... literally! lol

Oh god you're still trying to push this prediction haha wow. It took a worldwide all-market panic sell crash to even get Bitcoin to go just under $4000 for a few minutes, upon which it immediately rebounded $1000, and now its back to almost 3 times your predicted price like 5 weeks later. Come on give this up already dude. Your prediction was dead in the water a year ago. Given that not even the panic crash could bring Bitcoin anywhere near this price, not even the bottom of the 2018 bear market crash could bring it under $3000, your prediction is pure fantasy.

Hahahahha

You are right, thecodebear.  These FUD spreaders try to get credit for their pie in the sky predictions no matter what and if it ends up going in that direction for some reason that may have been way beyond their accounting, they then say "look, look, look.  I was right." 

[hotpassion]

From his posts, I see sgbett is a big holder of BSV and he went all for BSV. He said BSV is the real bitcoin, not BTC. He believe BSV will "replace" BTC by 2021, as BSV price will be $2k+ while BTC will be sub $3k. Sgbett is a very smart guy and I'm very impressed with his previous predictions about BTC prices. But by now, some years after the BCH and BSV were "born", we all see that BTC is still the head of cryptocurrency train and I don't think there will be one day, when BTC is crashing down to sub $3k, the BSV still rising up to 2k$. I think if the worst case happen when BTC will go down to sub 3k$, the BSV price will be under $100 for sure.

[wxxyrqa]

From his posts, I see sgbett is a big holder of BSV and he went all for BSV. He said BSV is the real bitcoin, not BTC. He believe BSV will "replace" BTC by 2021, as BSV price will be $2k+ while BTC will be sub $3k. Sgbett is a very smart guy and I'm very impressed with his previous predictions about BTC prices. But by now, some years after the BCH and BSV were "born", we all see that BTC is still the head of cryptocurrency train and I don't think there will be one day, when BTC is crashing down to sub $3k, the BSV still rising up to 2k$. I think if the worst case happen when BTC will go down to sub 3k$, the BSV price will be under $100 for sure.

I believe that Mr. Gox made these statements only because he is the largest owner of the coins with which he predicts a very great future, while he is very active in speaking about the collapse of bitcoin.  I believe that this person uses his reputation to manipulate information in order to provoke users to certain actions.  in any case, really all his forecasts at the moment do not correspond to reality.

[sgbett]

reputation!? *spits coffee* .... I'm an absolute nobody! I rarely post these days as this isn't really a Bitcoin forum anymore for me.

You want to look at the multi-thousand follower talking heads on twitter if you want to see who is trying to "influence"

I'm happy with my forecast, what's another 10 years?

[Bossian]

The more I read this analysis, the more I believe it will eventually play out. Of course not a done deal yet, a lot of things can happen, but the resistances have been stronger than the supports for quite a long time now. What will happen when those buying into the halvening fairytale will eventually lose patience and sell?
This event could explain why the last wave doesn't look very harmonic compared to the previous ones, but the scenario still looks very possible to me.

A first target I have is 6.8k, then a bounce back, then 5.5k... then 3.5k. At this point, 5.5k looks quite safe.

[Febo]

The more I read this analysis, the more I believe it will eventually play out. Of course not a done deal yet, a lot of things can happen, but the resistances have been stronger than the supports for quite a long time now. What will happen when those buying into the halvening fairytale will eventually lose patience and sell?
This event could explain why the last wave doesn't look very harmonic compared to the previous ones, but the scenario still looks very possible to me.

A first target I have is 6.8k, then a bounce back, then 5.5k... then 3.5k. At this point, 5.5k looks quite safe.

With a huge depression anything can happen. But without huge depression no way.  Also bottoms happen for a short time. Same as ATHs. Very hard to sell at ATH and very hard to buy at bottom. For those that hold none of this matters much. Except being sorry not to buy more when the bottom happened.

[sgbett]

hello gang.

as you know my calls are *very* long term so its gong to take a while for this to play out.

here's a quick "latest update", same old lines, bit more actual price action.



Thought I would get it in before things start to blow up in florida!

Looks somewhat similar to how things played out May to October 2014, the market can stay irrational for ages - I've seen it many a time, but by now it *must* be starting to become clear that BTC has no utility and so its value is purely predicated on speculation.

The emperor has no clothes. I've been telling you for literally years now.

DYOR. Make your own decision, not investment advice. Good luck!

[El duderino_]

So you say down.... so as every call you make... whatever circumstances....

Mmmmm

Good this isn’t investment advice, please put that sentence in your signature, under your avatar and always under every post ... only make those words larger or capslock....

Healthy mind advice... ^