Calling top at $16500 (New speculation: Guess the price 19 Feb 2021!)

[El duderino_]

The more I read this analysis, the more I believe it will eventually play out. Of course not a done deal yet, a lot of things can happen, but the resistances have been stronger than the supports for quite a long time now. What will happen when those buying into the halvening fairytale will eventually lose patience and sell?
This event could explain why the last wave doesn't look very harmonic compared to the previous ones, but the scenario still looks very possible to me.

A first target I have is 6.8k, then a bounce back, then 5.5k... then 3.5k. At this point, 5.5k looks quite safe.

BTCers buying a product not a fairytale... always buying and selling....more people are valuing the product as more valuable due halvings and scarceness and understanding the fundamentals and cause of getting sick by there banks and governments etc

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[exstasie]

So you say down.... so as every call you make... whatever circumstances....

Mmmmm

Perma bear being a perma bear. What's new?

If he had posted that update in mid-March when we were trading in the $4,000s I'd have said the chances were decent. Now I'd say the chances are slim, and nearly impossible if the June 2019 highs are broken.

$3K is unlikely to be a double bottom, I agree with him there. On a sustained drop below the 2018 bottom, I'd be looking to the target zone Sgbett drew as well since pivots like that are typically important S/R, although I'm unsure why he calls it a gap and implies it needs to be filled.

[STT]

https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FFjHxFbi.png&t=614&c=x3tQiS_voXKvPQ

It might just be my inexperience perhaps but what gap are we talking about.   BTC trades constantly, it doesnt create natural gaps from Friday to Monday pricing or overnight.   The volume gap perhaps and I like a chart with price by volume on it but Im not sure you mean that, so is there a gap and why does it have to go back there.    Im aware of gap fill and gap window trading strategies mostly used by day traders and I guess it can apply over longer time frames but cant say I really see anything with gravity here to create some sort of cyclone situation we might circle around but invariably are drawn towards.   People will sell when they have to pay off bills, theres already lots of reasons we can go down in theory.   A process of deflation and inflation is the words I got in my head from ancient history in finance and we can go down in lots of assets prices I dont doubt it and volatility I think is certain and a bull market even but this particular trade I dont see.
   The point you make on 900-1000 'gap' is just an area of a previous high and then in early 2017 we need quite alot of work done to confirm pricing and get through it, its significant area I agree.   I switched to bullish in Feb 2017 and I was really late to do so but at the time it was observable.   The point I really messed up was the 2014 pullback hitting the prior highs like on your chart, we established 200 as a good set of lows and that was very bullish when it did that.    I think this also applies to 4200 area recently, why must we pass through that now.   My emphasis would be more on the lows and holding that as a base to rise from, the ATH and the very sharp peaks we see I dont care about; I was probably asleep when those hit and were gone again as were alot of other people so the volume isnt that significant beyond perceptions and headlines.
   We'll get more trouble in 10k to 13k then we'll see at ATH area imo; for your 2014 pricing prediction I would say the dollar has lost value quite clearly in the last six years and they cannot reverse or neutralise QE and BTC lower may happen as a trade still but I dont think we have that weight forcing us to go there.    I dont see why it would be a target to call out, I will look for anyone else with further reasoning who says similar as that would be one hell of a short trade to take and even the threat is worth being aware of but my most negative estimate is the 3k area and I dont even believe we get that as its already been done both in the 2018 period and recently.   If anything we just made a higher low, the worst we could do was actually a positive long term.

   Anyway I like this thread now whether I agree or not, for macro reference.  Feb 14th We talked about Tone Vays seemingly overly bearish target and it happened within a month, pretty amazing demonstration.   I saw a good chart recently drawn with monthly bars and it seemed quite significant, I need to go mess with trading view and look myself but maybe thats where your gap theory might show up or not I dont know.

[JayJuanGee]

So you say down.... so as every call you make... whatever circumstances....

Mmmmm

Perma bear being a perma bear. What's new?

As incredible as that may be, an admitted  shitcoin pumper and believer, too... unless some miracle has occurred, which I doubt, especially having had seen the latest graphical seemingly wishful-thinking pie in the sky price projection nonsense.

[Wind_FURY]

The more I read this analysis, the more I believe it will eventually play out. Of course not a done deal yet, a lot of things can happen, but the resistances have been stronger than the supports for quite a long time now. What will happen when those buying into the halvening fairytale will eventually lose patience and sell?
This event could explain why the last wave doesn't look very harmonic compared to the previous ones, but the scenario still looks very possible to me.

A first target I have is 6.8k, then a bounce back, then 5.5k... then 3.5k. At this point, 5.5k looks quite safe.

BTCers buying a product not a fairytale... always buying and selling....more people are valuing the product as more valuable due halvings and scarceness and understanding the fundamentals and cause of getting sick by there banks and governments etc

BUT the actual coins bought, and sold is just 40% of the total coins in circulation. 60% have NOT moved for one year, or more.

Whalecumulators crash the price to $2,000, $3,000, $5,000? HODLers buy, and HODL.

[Febo]

Hardly wait of $2500 BTC in February 2021.  I am making a list of things I will need to sell at that time to get come cheap Bitcoin. I love that I have so much time to gather founds needed.

[exstasie]

BTCers buying a product not a fairytale... always buying and selling....more people are valuing the product as more valuable due halvings and scarceness and understanding the fundamentals and cause of getting sick by there banks and governments etc

BUT the actual coins bought, and sold is just 40% of the total coins in circulation. 60% have NOT moved for one year, or more.

Yep, this is one of the reasons I'm so bullish on BTC long term, despite once being a big skeptic years ago. The HODL effect proves incredibly strong time and time again, whether you look at network metrics or exchange data. I also have a hunch that lost coins have played a major role in price discovery.

There is of course a slight possibility that Roubini and Prof. Bitcorn's predictions come true. After all, ultimately the only thing backing BTC is the faith of its users. There are a number of things that could theoretically break that faith: a much superior technology could come along, an existential failure of the protocol could occur, and so on.

At this point however, I would say it's increasingly risky not to have exposure to BTC. It looks to be on a fairly clear upwards trajectory of adoption and the supply is extremely scarce. The potential upside is nearly limitless.

[Wind_FURY]

BTCers buying a product not a fairytale... always buying and selling....more people are valuing the product as more valuable due halvings and scarceness and understanding the fundamentals and cause of getting sick by there banks and governments etc

BUT the actual coins bought, and sold is just 40% of the total coins in circulation. 60% have NOT moved for one year, or more.

Yep, this is one of the reasons I'm so bullish on BTC long term, despite once being a big skeptic years ago. The HODL effect proves incredibly strong time and time again, whether you look at network metrics or exchange data. I also have a hunch that lost coins have played a major role in price discovery.

There is of course a slight possibility that Roubini and Prof. Bitcorn's predictions come true. After all, ultimately the only thing backing BTC is the faith of its users. There are a number of things that could theoretically break that faith: a much superior technology could come along, an existential failure of the protocol could occur, and so on.

At this point however, I would say it's increasingly risky not to have exposure to BTC. It looks to be on a fairly clear upwards trajectory of adoption and the supply is extremely scarce. The potential upside is nearly limitless.

The HODL-effect obviously because of network-effect. It is valued more than gold, other commodities, more valued than any fiat currency, and stocks. I believe 90% of shitcoin investors invest because they want more Bitcoin.

[sgbett]

Regarding the point about gap-fill.

Someone highlighted the continuous trading nature of Bitcoin. This is exactly what feeds into my thoughts about a bitcoin run-up being the closest thing you get to a "gap-up" in traditional open/close markets.

In a typical market, the manic run-ups will often lead to speculative mania manifesting in a gap out of hours, and I think it is precisely because the market is closed (and so a large number of participants, cannot contribute to prices action) that these run-ups end up being somewhat curtailed. Whereas, in a continuous market it gets to *really* run up as the market gets stuck in a feedback loop and *everybody* gets to pile in (or out).

So I consider the big verticals in Bitcoin price action bit gappish.

In the same way that a gap up (or down) has to be filled so that all he market participants can re-assert there positions under slightly more rational conditions, I believe that any monumental run-up that happens also needs to be fully backtested. So the mania can. be shaken loose and the price can consolidate at its new baseline high.

Anyone calling me a parma-bull is just revealing that they know nothing of my ~10 year history here. I made this call because I feel like like it is an accurate forecast of what will happen following the run up to 20k. A run up of that magnitude, I think, necessitates a multi year bear market in order to consolidate, I dint forecast it because I want it to happen, or because I would like it to happen. It is because it is what I *believe* will happen. All the kneejerk emotional reaction that I read, I just chuckle. Being emotionally invested doesn't seem wise, but what would I know. Anyone remember MatTheCat, air he would let emotions get in the way of some otherwise decent trading ability. It wasn't pretty.

The reason why I think it will play out this comes from what I have observed over the years with how the market sentiment appears to play out.

It starts with what happen on the run up to 32. I experienced the price action and the corresponding forum mood. I saw how the market played out after that. A much smaller market, with fewer participants (and less "HODL" mentality to sustain momentum), things moved a lot more quickly so it wasn't all that long until the bottom was in and we saw the next speculative run up.

There was a little bump - I think it went mid 200s - then a pull back to around 60 people were skittish, but that wasn't the big run. (It seemed more analogous to the $2-$9 move that preceded the $32 run up).

The big run came after that, we went over $1200 at gox. That was pretty insane.

What came next is most crucial piece of the puzzle for me.

I watched the market go down and "find the bottom" it took a little bit longer than last time around but I figured we must be there it was like 300 or something, and I started to buy back in (I actually started around $600... ouch) because I was sure it was over - but it wasn't, it started to rise a bit, then it sunk even lower. It took almost 2-3 times longer than I expected before we really did bottom out and it took for a forum sentiment to be *very* much different to what is in place right now. I learned a lesson about patience that time around.

So my reckoning is that when we ran up to 20k, the subsequent correction and finding bottom was going to be *way* longer than people thought, even with this in mind I think I have still called it too short term (unsurprising, its a common mistake that I make! lol) and we could be looking at more like 2023 before it find a base.

This is further backed up by the fact that the general mood is still "oh just HODL and it will be fine". Can any of you deny that the general mood is still buoyant?... No you can't can you because you know I'm right, you all think its all fine and any time now we'll be at 20k again! Thats not how it works. Thats *never* been how it works in the history of bitcoin.

People are nowhere near feeling that capitulation that coincides with the bottom that I have observed take place before every run up starts.

Of course HOLDing is fine (I've held through 90% losses, its fun!)... you can just ride it out if you got the stomach I'm not suggesting you sell at all - it's not trading advice, remember! it makes no difference to me if you buy or sell BTC. I don't hold BTC, I can categorically state that I do not want - and will *never* buy back into BTC cheaper! I don't care if you buy or sell BSV, I don't believe that the actions of anyone here can have any kind of significant effect on its value long term compared to the other factors that are at play. What I am telling you is what I think it would theoretically take for BTC to have another bite at the cherry.

If it did, then I think you would get 6 figures easy, prolly $250-500k. That is a mighty big IF though. You all know why I think it won't, I don't see any point in repeating myself

What might be of interest to any of you smart cookies is that there is a whole bunch of new information recently made available. I just finished reading about 3000+ (yes literally) pages of depositions from a certain court case in florida. I daresay you've seen some cherry picked pieces on twitter saying one thing or another depending on who is doing the cherry picking - and that is both sides of the coin so to speak.

My advise is to read it all yourself. It's a bit more time consuming the clicking like on trite 140-char witticisms support your pre-conceived notion of what is going on. However, if you have any kind of significant investment in Bitcoin then its the economically rational thing to do. Whether you believe me or not you cannot deny that is *good* advice.

Stay wise my fellow Bitcoiners, and keep learning! We are all in this together, however much we may disagree on what constitutes "Bitcoin"

[sgbett]

BTCers buying a product not a fairytale... always buying and selling....more people are valuing the product as more valuable due halvings and scarceness and understanding the fundamentals and cause of getting sick by there banks and governments etc

BUT the actual coins bought, and sold is just 40% of the total coins in circulation. 60% have NOT moved for one year, or more.

Yep, this is one of the reasons I'm so bullish on BTC long term, despite once being a big skeptic years ago. The HODL effect proves incredibly strong time and time again, whether you look at network metrics or exchange data. I also have a hunch that lost coins have played a major role in price discovery.

There is of course a slight possibility that Roubini and Prof. Bitcorn's predictions come true. After all, ultimately the only thing backing BTC is the faith of its users. There are a number of things that could theoretically break that faith: a much superior technology could come along, an existential failure of the protocol could occur, and so on.

At this point however, I would say it's increasingly risky not to have exposure to BTC. It looks to be on a fairly clear upwards trajectory of adoption and the supply is extremely scarce. The potential upside is nearly limitless.

You. make an interesting point (bolded), that I want to examine. You are making the case for the HODL effect being an "incredibly strong" factor in BTC's USD value.

So I think what you are describing there is the "speculative premium", I've posted before about how I beleive the nature of BTC price action in the past being a series of speculative run ups on top of base price that follows an s-curve of adoption. I doubt I was the first to come up with this idea and I've seen others say similar things.

If that is the case then it follows that the price *must* retreat to (and potentially even overshoot a little) its base utility value.

You go on to say you think there is a trajectory of adoption, but I'm not clear on what you are basing that on? My observation is the the throughput of BTC has been almost constant for perhaps 4+ years now. Segwit has provided some incremental progress in that regard and LN keeps promising to.  What

At this point however, I would say it's increasingly risky not to have exposure to BTC. It looks to be on a fairly clear upwards trajectory of adoption and the supply is extremely scarce. The potential upside is nearly limitless.

Before the split I have more than once posted almost exactly those same words.

I still believe that those words apply to *Bitcoin* (we just don't agree on what that is). I see the tx growth in the BSV ecosystem as a clear indicator that adoption is increasing.

 I think subconsciously you have already discovered the truth...

There is of course a slight possibility that Roubini and Prof. Bitcorn's predictions come true. After all, ultimately the only thing backing BTC is the faith of its users. There are a number of things that could theoretically break that faith: a much superior technology could come along, an existential failure of the protocol could occur, and so on.

I have written elsewhere, about how internalising and accepting this realisation is incredibly difficult. I had a long held (~7 years?) unshakeable belief in Bitcoin when BTC forked to include Segwit (to this day my belief in the ultimate success of Bitcoin is stronger than ever btw). What it took for me to divorce my attachment to the BTC I held from what I understood Bitcoin to be was one of the most difficult things I have ever had to do in my life. Only someone that has done that will ever really understand what I mean by that. To anyone else it probably just looks like a load of BS, thats OK I'm not looking for affirmation

I'm sorry I said I wouldn't get into this again, but man I can't help myself. Since BSV moved forwards on the the original Bitcoin vision I have the same level of excitement and enthusiasm I did back in the early 10's. At that time it was fending of the doubts of the no coiners. Thesedays its you core coin guys ;p

have at it im outta here again for a few months, be back check what's up later on this year (unless one of you triggers me enough that I just can't bear not to reply!)

[Biodom]

I like the fact that PTB are focusing on @barstoolpresidente instead of btc right now.
It looks like that at least some of them are setting Dave to be crushed as he is challenging the WS fees.
On the other hand, people like him can get the stock market party going, which is also in PTB interest.
Mixed feelings from them, I think.

Btc is not 'hot" at the moment and I kind of like it.
If it doubles every year (on average) instead of popping X20 one year, then declining 80% next, it would be peachy from my perspective.

[Wexlike]

im outta here again for a few months, be back check what's up later on this year (unless one of you triggers me enough that I just can't bear not to reply!)

Enjoy your time sgbett! The good thing is, that we will know in a year in what direction we're finally heading. And that's always lots of fun comparing reality with old ideas. For me speaking, I'm on the opposite side of your trade.

[STT]

2021 will likely be more the year of action more then this so hibernation is reasonable

I always think going sideways is something of a positive, price stability encourages business but it just moves more later I think.   I'm not sure why it does this but BTC gets stuck in a range and nobody is right bullish or bearish till it breaks and confirms the break.

People are nowhere near feeling that capitulation that coincides with the bottom that I have observed take place before every run up starts.

People did capitulate in March so isnt this a valid bottom, some poor soul in the observer thread keeps getting called despite there obviously being many more but lots of people just need to see a lower price and nothing else and they are gone at the worst time.    Selling BTC on greater distance requirements for payment and isolation really doesnt make sense anyway, it was just a margin call on some who go long using leverage.   Now BTC is in main markets and I see it on the front page of most FIAT trading services, its a given hot money is in the price.   It should rise alot because going short a 'nothing' product is attractive, so shorts panic and it can spike ditto the opposite.   Thats just short term, you must be making a longer term call for a sustained bottom price if you refer to the mt gox. high.   Is Mt. Gox that relevant now, people warned me about that place months before it toppled it was a known thing beforehand that something was wrong so what relates to that now.

MatTheCat

Rings a bell yea but anyone round this long, 10 years or however long has an advantage of perspective that others lack and suffer for like the March seller had likely not seen this action before or been holding during it anyhow.

ultimately the only thing backing BTC is the faith of its users

No its a resource, a secure transaction that in this world has a worth to it.   There was this conversation in 2013, why did no tech fund even consider 0.01% investment into crypto as the maths was valid, the system was working ongoing but still it merited no consideration by the mainstream initially because its not real.    I read an article saying the other day its just another form of FIAT with different transaction processing.   Either way its nature is different enough to give an ongoing worth in a world of centralism and failed capitalist ideals.   If the global reserve system didnt have a chance of falling over, the correct price might be in the hundreds and it wouldn't be a bad thing as dollar itself would buy more at that point also.  Part of the BTC price is accounting for inflation and failure in alternative value systems, some of it is predictive.   The biggest danger is in competition but at present this is a valid product amidst many failing and failed standards of worth.   It could be the charts dont matter but the fundamentals and deflation and inflation will break all trends.

[gentlemand]

Rings a bell yea but anyone round this long, 10 years or however long has an advantage of perspective that others lack and suffer for like the March seller had likely not seen this action before or been holding during it anyhow.

Matthecat was an object lesson in someone with the ability to not get ahead baked into their DNA.

He got in at $10 and spent it all on drugs. Then he came back in the hundreds and published several miles of TA and trades accompanied by many more miles of abuse and got it wrong every single time.

I seem to remember him insisting it would reach $1500 some day and then that would be that. He would regularly pity us while failing over and over again.

[exstasie]

Yep, this is one of the reasons I'm so bullish on BTC long term, despite once being a big skeptic years ago. The HODL effect proves incredibly strong time and time again, whether you look at network metrics or exchange data. I also have a hunch that lost coins have played a major role in price discovery.

You. make an interesting point (bolded), that I want to examine. You are making the case for the HODL effect being an "incredibly strong" factor in BTC's USD value.

So I think what you are describing there is the "speculative premium", I've posted before about how I beleive the nature of BTC price action in the past being a series of speculative run ups on top of base price that follows an s-curve of adoption. I doubt I was the first to come up with this idea and I've seen others say similar things.

If that is the case then it follows that the price *must* retreat to (and potentially even overshoot a little) its base utility value.

Why must it do that? And how would you determine its "base utility value?"

BTC fundamentals can't be quantified into price. Furthermore, fundamentals and price don't need to be equivalent.

You go on to say you think there is a trajectory of adoption, but I'm not clear on what you are basing that on?

Both retail and institutional investors are increasingly entering the crypto market, with BTC being the investment of choice.
https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/FDAS/institutional-investor-study.pdf
https://cointelegraph.com/news/number-of-americans-owning-crypto-doubled-in-2019-finder

[buwaytress]

im outta here again for a few months, be back check what's up later on this year (unless one of you triggers me enough that I just can't bear not to reply!)

I'm disappointed you asked for trouble and no one's tried to give it yet;) Enjoy, I'm looking forward to an end-of-year break too. Then it'll just be me, the forum, bingeing solo and sleeping a lot.

The good thing is, that we will know in a year in what direction we're finally heading. And that's always lots of fun comparing reality with old ideas. For me speaking, I'm on the opposite side of your trade.

Will we though? The only time I was ever sure of the direction we were headed for was 2018. I mean, of course, it had to go down at some point after all that heat, but really, I'm never sure one way or other where we're going, especially not right now since April!

Will admit, always fun looking back. I'm pretty sure if $1000 happens like them doomsayers say, I'll be happy to come by anyway and say "oooh, I'm still here!"

[Febo]

Only half year left to go. This bottom will be magnificent. Banks will be full of cheap loans ( hopefully with negative interest rate) for us to fill our bags with cheap Bitcoin. 

[thecodebear]

Only half year left to go. This bottom will be magnificent. Banks will be full of cheap loans ( hopefully with negative interest rate) for us to fill our bags with cheap Bitcoin.  

Yeah, I can't wait for Bitcoin to slide 80% in the middle of a bull market after coming out of first a bear market that didn't go that low and then a  a global all-market crash that didn't go that low either  
We should all probably just sell everything now at $12k and set our buy orders for $2500 in 6 months and get those lambo preorders ready.

I remember laughing at this thread (its creation) a lot over the past couple of years. It gets even funnier as time passes.

[JayJuanGee]

Only half year left to go. This bottom will be magnificent. Banks will be full of cheap loans ( hopefully with negative interest rate) for us to fill our bags with cheap Bitcoin. 

Exactly... still waiting for that magnificent bottom that is going to be "inevitable."  We are surely "on track."

Thanks sgbett and other diptwats for these nonsensical bottom calls that have allowed smarter peeps to continue to accumulate BTC over the past few years.

[Wexlike]

Funny how everyone seems to trash sgbett, even when he called almost the exact bottom of the last bullrun already on 7th of December 2017. In a different thread we would call a person with his price prediction skills "Master". 

Rereading the first few pages of this thread gives a mild reality check. Hopefully we will all be better at realizing some profits in the next(this?) bullrun.

Reminder: I'm hyper bullish on Bitcoin and I totally can't understand how a smart person could ever be aroused of gigamegs blocks. But still trying to be open-minded and friendly(!).