Calling top at $16500 (New speculation: Guess the price 19 Feb 2021!)

[Torque]

For me when BTC forked by changing the protocol, that left BCH as Bitcoin to me. When BCH forked by changing the protocol that left BSV as Bitcoin to me. I'm not choosing to follow an alt coin, or whatever. I am simply staying with the Bitcoin that I beleive in, regardless of squabbling over the name, the ticker, and price and all sorts of other such things that do not actually define what Bitcoin is.

And on, and on, and on... like a rat jumping from one burning, sinking ship to another.

Maybe one day you'll find the elusive "real Bitcoin". Hey...you smell that, sgbett? BSV is already on fire and sinking fast. I hope they do another fork soon so you can jump ship again.  

Meanwhile, Bitcoin^TM will live on and prosper.

[1714061983]

1714061983

[pooya87]

When I say Bitcoin I mean Bitcoin. Not BTC - because SegWit is a fundamental change to protocol that makes it no longer Bitcoin. Not BCH because ... well, I think we can all just agree on that
For me when BTC forked by changing the protocol, that left BCH as Bitcoin to me. When BCH forked by changing the protocol that left BSV as Bitcoin to me......

it saddens me to see after 3 years there are still so many uneducated people who are making the same contradictory statements like a parrot.

these so called "fundamental changes to protocol" are copied exactly word by word to both bcash and bcashsv it is just not called "Segregated Witness" and is disguised as the "replay protection" and other things otherwise it is exactly the same code copied over from bitcoin core.
1) BIP-143 aka the Transaction Signature Verification for Version 0 Witness Program or in simple terms the same thing that happens in a SegWit transaction during signing as a backward compatible soft fork while other transactions remain the same, all bacsh and bcashsv transaction do with a backward incompatible hardfork.
this is a bcash source code not bitcoin: https://github.com/Bitcoin-ABC/bitcoin-abc/blob/c8309573b9236817e20f11c5025f20ddb37a1c16/src/script/interpreter.cpp#L1488-L1548
2) it doesn't stop there either, bacash is using BIP-173 aka Base32 address format for native v0-16 witness outputs for all its addresses
(these were added from day one that bcash was created not later on.)
3) and it is also using BIP-340 aka Schnorr Signatures for secp256k1 which is the SegWit version 1
4) i don't follow bcash but they were lately talking about building a layer two on top of bcash aka building lightning network!

basically bcash is the backward incompatible SegWit introduction without some of the malleability fixes. and the modifications they added due to incompetency of the developers has added new vulnerabilities to these altcoins.

[gentlemand]

it saddens me to see after 3 years there are still so many uneducated people who are making the same contradictory statements like a parrot.

It's not uneducation, it's the wilful rejection and denial of good old fact, or it's bent to fit whatever narrative they feel like hawking. We see it on here in countless forms all the time. They know and we know what the actual score is.

[sgbett]

For me when BTC forked by changing the protocol, that left BCH as Bitcoin to me. When BCH forked by changing the protocol that left BSV as Bitcoin to me. I'm not choosing to follow an alt coin, or whatever. I am simply staying with the Bitcoin that I beleive in, regardless of squabbling over the name, the ticker, and price and all sorts of other such things that do not actually define what Bitcoin is.

And on, and on, and on... like a rat jumping from one burning, sinking ship to another.

Maybe one day you'll find the elusive "real Bitcoin". Hey...you smell that, sgbett? BSV is already on fire and sinking fast. I hope they do another fork soon so you can jump ship again.  

Meanwhile, Bitcoin^TM will live on and prosper.

Yes! I jumped from the burning sinking ship of BTC!
Yes! Bitcoin will live on and prosper!

By jove you've got it

[sgbett]

When I say Bitcoin I mean Bitcoin. Not BTC - because SegWit is a fundamental change to protocol that makes it no longer Bitcoin. Not BCH because ... well, I think we can all just agree on that
For me when BTC forked by changing the protocol, that left BCH as Bitcoin to me. When BCH forked by changing the protocol that left BSV as Bitcoin to me......

it saddens me to see after 3 years there are still so many uneducated people who are making the same contradictory statements like a parrot.

these so called "fundamental changes to protocol" are copied exactly word by word to both bcash and bcashsv it is just not called "Segregated Witness" and is disguised as the "replay protection" and other things otherwise it is exactly the same code copied over from bitcoin core.
1) BIP-143 aka the Transaction Signature Verification for Version 0 Witness Program or in simple terms the same thing that happens in a SegWit transaction during signing as a backward compatible soft fork while other transactions remain the same, all bacsh and bcashsv transaction do with a backward incompatible hardfork.
this is a bcash source code not bitcoin: https://github.com/Bitcoin-ABC/bitcoin-abc/blob/c8309573b9236817e20f11c5025f20ddb37a1c16/src/script/interpreter.cpp#L1488-L1548
2) it doesn't stop there either, bacash is using BIP-173 aka Base32 address format for native v0-16 witness outputs for all its addresses
(these were added from day one that bcash was created not later on.)
3) and it is also using BIP-340 aka Schnorr Signatures for secp256k1 which is the SegWit version 1
4) i don't follow bcash but they were lately talking about building a layer two on top of bcash aka building lightning network!

basically bcash is the backward incompatible SegWit introduction without some of the malleability fixes. and the modifications they added due to incompetency of the developers has added new vulnerabilities to these altcoins.

It saddens me that you still don't seem to be able to tell the difference between BCH and BSV.

1) You illustrate my point BTC has "special case" code to handle this in order to make SegWit work. ie it has changed the protocol. "Backwards compatible soft fork" is double speak.
2) BCH may use those addresses, BSV does not.
3) BSV does not have Schnorr sigs, this is another thing BTC introduce that changes the protocol (protocol is more the the digital byte stream btw)
4) BCH suffers from the same problems as BTC. They think Bitcoin needs "fixing".
 

[Febo]

Russians already have vaccine. EU, USA and China are for sure not far behind. The big covid-19 hiatus drama is already behind us. Even if we get next wave and daily infected get another leg up there will be hope at the end of the tunnel and hope is bad for bottoms. Bitcoin had bottom in December 2018. And Bitcoin had another crash in March this year. Bitcoin will not go below March price. If there is some new fear then price will bounce from $5000 or higher and very fast go above $7000.

[exstasie]

It’s funny back when I held BTC before it split I actually had more alt coins “just in case” (ETH, LTC, FTC, MCO, NMC, ANC, RVN & PGN) I’ve sold them all because all altcoins are trash and a liability. majority will be shut down BTC included, and there has been ample warning. Everyone thinks they will be the one to get out in time.

Lol, good luck.

"Shut down?" What does that mean, banned by governments? And you think BCH or BSV (not sure which one you prefer these days) will be the only one left standing? I'd love to hear a rational explanation for why that would happen.

It's becoming increasingly obvious to me as time goes on cryptocurrencies aren't getting banned. It looks like even privacy coins will just get soft banned, where de-listing them will be a prerequisite for exchanges to enter a state licensing scheme.

[pooya87]

~

there are no differences to see. they are both centralized altcoins that were copied from bitcoin like about a thousand other altcoins. they both are created to be pumped and dumped and make money for their controllers. and they both have BIP-143 or in other words most of SegWit copied from bitcoin.

[jbreher]

there are no differences to see

Clearly, there are no differences that _you_ see.

You've already stated your position, which is all we need to know.

[nutildah]

The reason BTC split is because the Core Devs wanted to implement SegWit (entirely unnecessary, unless you are trying to force LN adoption so you can transact anonymously off chain undermining the purpose of a public ledger).

Not the purpose of a public ledger in the case of bitcoin. It seems facetious to claim otherwise.

vs your explanation of "I don't know anything about bcash sv just that its a scam, and snake oil, and they split because... scam ... and nobody cares about you and everybody agrees with me"

You're ignoring the fact that 50% or more of BSV's market cap still rests on the lie that Faketoshi is Satoshi. This is a critical error when assuming any sort of future price gains with this particularly fraudulent shitcoin.

But frankly I can't remember a time when you've ever been right about anything, so carry on. Lol.

[STT]

The big covid-19 hiatus drama is already behind us

I think the hit is in the tail end as far as economic and business effects are concerned as not all costs are yet apparent.    Thing is for BTC it will react to monetary base expansion, the exceptional moves by the FED to create liquidity and inflation no matter what.  So its not exactly about covid but the central banks reaction to the market and every asset traded in dollars.     Dollar remains weak, its at the lows of March and Oct '18 and about midway in the decline of 2017.     Theres no real pressure from dollar recovering value, the really big estimates for BTC gains rely on dollar continuing to lose value, at the moment its still looking beneficial to gains.

[Febo]

You're ignoring the fact that 50% or more of BSV's market cap still rests on the lie that Faketoshi is Satoshi.

80% of BSV marketcap rests on the fact that Bitcoin holders had not claimed BCH and BSV. Maybe 90% of BSV maketcap base on that fact. Craig Wright stories are irrelevant here.

[nutildah]

Craig Wright stories are irrelevant here.

Of course they are relevant. Most of the major price movement during BSV's history is due to news-driven items: Craig filing for the copyright to the white paper, a Chinese tweet about bogus evidence confirming Craig is satoshi, the judge reversing the default judgment against Craig -- this is what moves BSV. As it is based on lies, it will all be removed from BSV's market cap value in due time.

[exstasie]

80% of BSV marketcap rests on the fact that Bitcoin holders had not claimed BCH and BSV. Maybe 90% of BSV maketcap base on that fact. Craig Wright stories are irrelevant here.

Of course they are relevant. Most of the major price movement during BSV's history is due to news-driven items: Craig filing for the copyright to the white paper, a Chinese tweet about bogus evidence confirming Craig is satoshi, the judge reversing the default judgment against Craig -- this is what moves BSV. As it is based on lies, it will all be removed from BSV's market cap value in due time.

Both of you are right.

The point about unclaimed coins is really important though. The reason BSV can be pumped so easily is its effectively low circulating supply. Since nobody bothered to claim their fork coins (something like 50% of the coins have gone untouched), those coins are "lost." Like Satoshi said, those serve as a donation to holders because it makes BSV scarcer, thus easier to pump. Forks are always easier to manipulate for this reason.

[sgbett]

One thing to maybe think about is the difference between me and many in this thread is I have nothing to lose. That means it’s a lot easier for me to be objective.

Think about - it if BTC tanks, do you really think it won’t drag BSV down with it (and everything else). So people saying I want that to happen? (As opposed to merely forecasting what I see as inevitable) are projecting. In USD terms I’d be worse off! If BTCcontinues to rise then inevitable all the other shi.. er altcoins will follow.

I realise I have tough crowd here on the “speculation” sub forum, cos y’all are basically here to discuss BTC price rises. I know because It’s where I always hung out, so it’s kinda like Home from home, but speculation isn’t the same for me now as it was back then. Now I’m interested in  much more than BTC price pops, more interested in speculating on the nature of Bitcoin itself and what it will become.

[JayJuanGee]

One thing to maybe think about is the difference between me and many in this thread is I have nothing to lose. That means it’s a lot easier for me to be objective.

Holding bags in dollars, or various kinds of bcashes should not be anything to be proud of.  You could be quite well off, if you had spent the last three years DCA'ing into BTC rather than holding that other crap.. and maybe also you would have stacked a few sats.

Of course, with bitcoin, the longer the timeline that you have been accumulating (stacking sats), the better, so if you would have spent 6 years DCA'ing into BTC, you would have been even better off.

So, your supposedly having "nothing to lose" comes off as a bit of a double edged sword, maybe even coming off as butt hurt, in your case since you are sticking with some kind of a dream BTC crash and filling yourself up with hopium in regards to something that you are now proclaiming, not to own.  Just think of so many of the gains that you failed/refused to realize, and you are feeling self-righteous about that level of dumb?   

Think about - it if BTC tanks, do you really think it won’t drag BSV down with it (and everything else). So people saying I want that to happen? (As opposed to merely forecasting what I see as inevitable) are projecting. In USD terms I’d be worse off! If BTCcontinues to rise then inevitable all the other shi.. er altcoins will follow.

Sounds like gobbledy gook to me.

This thread is about BTC and your prediction regarding BTC.. now you want to change it to some kind of pumpening of another kind of shitcoin?  Lot's of hopium in you to believe in that scam coin.

I realise I have tough crowd here on the “speculation” sub forum, cos y’all are basically here to discuss BTC price rises.
 

That's right.. Your original prediction was about how BTC's price was supposedly going down..

I know because It’s where I always hung out, so it’s kinda like Home from home, but speculation isn’t the same for me now as it was back then.
 

I have noticed that you are coming off as a kind of lost puppy, so i can see what you are saying in regards to not feeling the same.

Now I’m interested in  much more than BTC price pops, more interested in speculating on the nature of Bitcoin itself and what it will become.

Bitcoin is going to continue to gravitate value into it.. so your lame-ass prediction of down just looks foolish, at best.

Of course, it is not too late to start some kind of stacking of bitcoin plan..... we are still in early days.  NO need to worry your lil head off regarding where bitcoin might be going, but if you are investing in some variation of bcash, such as BSV, then of course, you have reason to worry about where that nonsense might be going.

[estenity]

Russians already have vaccine. EU, USA and China are for sure not far behind. The big covid-19 hiatus drama is already behind us. Even if we get next wave and daily infected get another leg up there will be hope at the end of the tunnel and hope is bad for bottoms. Bitcoin had bottom in December 2018. And Bitcoin had another crash in March this year. Bitcoin will not go below March price. If there is some new fear then price will bounce from $5000 or higher and very fast go above $7000.

all markets dumping suddenly and simultaneously, shares, gold and silver, btc and cryptos.
seems that they are all connected now, which is not conform to the previous conception: they were not supposed to.
some say that it is an action coordinated by Bis.

for covid19 we may hope in a near future, however still in crisis presently. Vaccine will probably be available soon.
vaccine tracker on Nytimes :

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

russians and chinese vaccines available already for limited use; they performed phase 2 trials, but not phase 3, and authorization was given in spite of incomplete experience.
for other countries several phase 3 presently done, some should be available before the end of 2020.
however the story is not finished.

[Febo]

Now is the last time for Bitcoin to dump. Covid second wave is here. Vaccine is nowhere in sight. Countries are right before lockdown starts and the toilet paper hunt begin once again. Economy will suffer again, but this time companies have no reserves anymore, so people will start losing jobs in more serious manner.  
But what happened now? All whales that accumulated cheap Bitcoin during last few years are now announcing how they just bought them.  Grayscale bought them, Coin Shares bought them, Microstrategy bought them, Galaxy Digital Holding bought them, Square INC bought them, Riot Blockhain bought them, Cyberpunk Holding bought them, .....   Those this "strategy" dont sounds familiar? We saw that in Bitcoin many times and we saw that in any other coins several times. Whales accumulate when price is ow and once their bags are full they start mass shill their bags.
So now we have this two effects collide. Which one will prevail? Whales or the economy crash?

[sgbett]

Eyup lads everything looking rosy in BTC. That pesky sgbett looks to have been defeated.

PayPal to the moon!

Nothing can stop it.

Except Bitcoin... tick tock, feb is right around the corner.

Much love from your favourite maximalist. Stay safe x

[gentlemand]

Kudos for sticking to your date at least. Most people would claim it was based on the Ethiopian calendar when things weren't going their way. Still plenty of time between now and then but we'd need some extinction level shit to get anywhere near it.