hashrate estimation

[chenchunyu88]

I used a statistical software called R to estimate the hashrate in the next 100 days from Jul, 15, 2013 using the last 180 days data from blockchain.info and the results are as follows:

And based on the estimates, 1GHs can generate around 1.29BTC on average situation without power cost deduction. In the worst case, you only get 1.09BTC and in the best case you can get 1.62BTC. So if you want to generate profit from mining, you have to buy 1GHs under 1BTC in a conservative view if you want your investment back in 100 days.

From the analysis, we are also expecting 1GHs generating 2.78BTC on average in the next year without power cost deduction. In the worst case, you only get 2.15BTC and in the best case you can get  4.398BTC. So if you want to generate profit from mining, you have to buy 1GHs under 2BTC in a conservative view if you want your investment back in a year.

         Point.Forecast   Lo.80                   Hi.80                   Lo.95            Hi.95
7/16/13   218414.1921   208164.4762   228663.9079   202738.6044   234089.7797
7/17/13   220950.0924   210289.2345   231610.9504   204645.7172   237254.4677
7/18/13   223485.9928   212389.6635   234582.3222   206515.6215   240456.3641
7/19/13   226021.8932   214466.6694   237577.1171   208349.7034   243694.0831
7/20/13   228557.7936   216521.1605   240594.4267   210149.3518   246966.2354
7/21/13   231093.694   218554.0303   243633.3577   211915.9333   250271.4547
7/22/13   233629.5944   220566.145   246693.0438   213650.7726   253608.4161
7/23/13   236165.4948   222558.3351   249772.6544   215355.1399   256975.8496
7/24/13   238701.3952   224531.3901   252871.4002   217030.2425   260372.5478
7/25/13   241237.2955   226486.0555   255988.5356   218677.2207   263797.3704
7/26/13   243773.1959   228423.0318   259123.36   220297.1458   267249.246
7/27/13   246309.0963   230342.9749   262275.2177   221891.0208   270727.1718
7/28/13   248844.9967   232246.497   265443.4964   223459.782   274230.2114
7/29/13   251380.8971   234134.1686   268627.6256   225004.3021   277757.4921
7/30/13   253916.7975   236006.5209   271827.0741   226525.3932   281308.2018
7/31/13   256452.6979   237864.0478   275041.348   228023.8108   284881.5849
8/1/13   258988.5983   239707.2087   278269.9878   229500.2576   288476.9389
8/2/13   261524.4986   241536.4311   281512.5661   230955.3874   292093.6099
8/3/13   264060.399   243352.1128   284768.6852   232389.8083   295730.9898
8/4/13   266596.2994   245154.6243   288037.9745   233804.0871   299388.5117
8/5/13   269132.1998   246944.311   291320.0886   235198.7521   303065.6475
8/6/13   271668.1002   248721.4952   294614.7052   236574.2963   306761.9041
8/7/13   274204.0006   250486.4783   297921.5229   237931.1804   310476.8208
8/8/13   276739.901   252239.542   301240.2599   239269.8354   314209.9665
8/9/13   279275.8013   253980.9506   304570.6521   240590.6654   317960.9373
8/10/13   281811.7017   255710.9517   307912.4518   241894.0492   321729.3543
8/11/13   284347.6021   257429.7782   311265.4261   243180.3429   325514.8614
8/12/13   286883.5025   259137.6491   314629.3559   244449.8816   329317.1234
8/13/13   289419.4029   260834.7711   318004.0347   245702.981   333135.8248
8/14/13   291955.3033   262521.3388   321389.2677   246939.9393   336970.6673
8/15/13   294491.2037   264197.5366   324784.8707   248161.038   340821.3694
8/16/13   297027.1041   265863.5387   328190.6694   249366.5438   344687.6644
8/17/13   299563.0044   267519.5104   331606.4985   250556.7093   348569.2995
8/18/13   302098.9048   269165.6086   335032.2011   251731.7746   352466.035
8/19/13   304634.8052   270801.9822   338467.6282   252891.9676   356377.6428
8/20/13   307170.7056   272428.7733   341912.6379   254037.5053   360303.9059
8/21/13   309706.606   274046.1171   345367.0949   255168.5945   364244.6175
8/22/13   312242.5064   275654.1425   348830.8703   256285.4326   368199.5801
8/23/13   314778.4068   277252.9729   352303.8406   257388.2081   372168.6054
8/24/13   317314.3072   278842.7262   355785.8881   258477.1014   376151.5129
8/25/13   319850.2075   280423.5153   359276.8998   259552.2852   380148.1299
8/26/13   322386.1079   281995.4485   362776.7674   260613.9249   384158.2909
8/27/13   324922.0083   283558.6297   366285.3869   261662.1797   388181.8369
8/28/13   327457.9087   285113.1587   369802.6587   262697.2021   392218.6153
8/29/13   329993.8091   286659.1315   373328.4866   263719.1389   396268.4792
8/30/13   332529.7095   288196.6406   376862.7783   264728.1316   400331.2873
8/31/13   335065.6099   289725.7751   380405.4447   265724.3163   404406.9034
9/1/13   337601.5102   291246.6207   383956.3998   266707.8244   408495.1961
9/2/13   340137.4106   292759.2604   387515.5609   267678.7827   412596.0386
9/3/13   342673.311   294263.7744   391082.8477   268637.3136   416709.3084
9/4/13   345209.2114   295760.24   394658.1828   269583.5358   420834.8871
9/5/13   347745.1118   297248.7323   398241.4913   270517.5637   424972.6599
9/6/13   350281.0122   298729.3237   401832.7006   271439.5083   429122.516
9/7/13   352816.9126   300202.0848   405431.7404   272349.4774   433284.3478
9/8/13   355352.813   301667.0835   409038.5424   273247.575   437458.0509
9/9/13   357888.7133   303124.3862   412653.0404   274133.9027   441643.524
9/10/13   360424.6137   304574.0572   416275.1703   275008.5585   445840.669
9/11/13   362960.5141   306016.1589   419904.8694   275871.6381   450049.3901
9/12/13   365496.4145   307450.752   423542.077   276723.2344   454269.5946
9/13/13   368032.3149   308877.8956   427186.7342   277563.4376   458501.1922
9/14/13   370568.2153   310297.6473   430838.7833   278392.3359   462744.0947
9/15/13   373104.1157   311710.063   434498.1683   279210.0148   466998.2166
9/16/13   375640.0161   313115.1974   438164.8347   280016.5578   471263.4743
9/17/13   378175.9164   314513.1037   441838.7292   280812.0463   475539.7866
9/18/13   380711.8168   315903.8337   445519.8   281596.5597   479827.0739
9/19/13   383247.7172   317287.4381   449207.9963   282370.1756   484125.2589
9/20/13   385783.6176   318663.9665   452903.2687   283132.9694   488434.2658
9/21/13   388319.518   320033.467   456605.569   283885.0152   492754.0208
9/22/13   390855.4184   321395.987   460314.8498   284626.3851   497084.4517
9/23/13   393391.3188   322751.5725   464031.065   285357.1497   501425.4878
9/24/13   395927.2191   324100.2688   467754.1695   286077.378   505777.0603
9/25/13   398463.1195   325442.1199   471484.1192   286787.1376   510139.1015
9/26/13   400999.0199   326777.169   475220.8708   287486.4945   514511.5453
9/27/13   403534.9203   328105.4586   478964.382   288175.5136   518894.3271
9/28/13   406070.8207   329427.03   482714.6114   288854.2581   523287.3833
9/29/13   408606.7211   330741.9239   486471.5183   289522.7901   527690.6521
9/30/13   411142.6215   332050.18   490235.063   290181.1706   532104.0724
10/1/13   413678.5219   333351.8373   494005.2064   290829.4591   536527.5846
10/2/13   416214.4222   334646.9342   497781.9103   291467.7143   540961.1302
10/3/13   418750.3226   335935.5081   501565.1371   292095.9935   545404.6518
10/4/13   421286.223   337217.5959   505354.8501   292714.353   549858.093
10/5/13   423822.1234   338493.2338   509151.013   293322.8482   554321.3987
10/6/13   426358.0238   339762.4571   512953.5904   293921.5332   558794.5144
10/7/13   428893.9242   341025.3009   516762.5475   294510.4615   563277.3869
10/8/13   431429.8246   342281.7992   520577.8499   295089.6853   567769.9638
10/9/13   433965.725   343531.9859   524399.4641   295659.2562   572272.1938
10/10/13   436501.6253   344775.8938   528227.3569   296219.2246   576784.0261
10/11/13   439037.5257   346013.5556   532061.4959   296769.6404   581305.4111
10/12/13   441573.4261   347245.0031   535901.8491   297310.5523   585836.2999
10/13/13   444109.3265   348470.2679   539748.3851   297842.0085   590376.6445
10/14/13   446645.2269   349689.3808   543601.073   298364.0562   594926.3976
10/15/13   449181.1273   350902.3722   547459.8823   298876.742   599485.5126
10/16/13   451717.0277   352109.2722   551324.7831   299380.1116   604053.9438
10/17/13   454252.9281   353310.1101   555195.746   299874.2101   608631.646
10/18/13   456788.8284   354504.9149   559072.7419   300359.0818   613218.575
10/19/13   459324.7288   355693.7153   562955.7423   300834.7706   617814.6871
10/20/13   461860.6292   356876.5394   566844.719   301301.3193   622419.9392
10/21/13   464396.5296   358053.4148   570739.6444   301758.7703   627034.2889
10/22/13   466932.43   359224.3689   574640.4911   302207.1655   631657.6945
10/23/13   469468.3304   360389.4286   578547.2322   302646.5459   636290.1148





code for the analysis

y<-RJSONIO::fromJSON(content="http://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate?timespan=180days&format=json")
len=length(y$values)
hashrate=rep(0,len)
unix=rep(0,len)
for(i in 1:len)
{
   unix=y$values[][2]
   hashrate=y$values[][2]
}
plot(hashrate,type="l")

fit<-HoltWinters(hashrate,gamma=F)
library(forecast)
accuracy(fit)
forecast(fit, 100)
plot(forecast(fit, 100))

[1714988836]

1714988836

[1714988836]

1714988836

[A Meteorite]

So this is only predicting about a 3x increase in hashrate by October as a worst case? That seems pretty optimistic to me. The ASIC race is ramping up so the growth we saw in the beginning of the year isn't a very good model. What happens when you use a smaller, more recent, window of data?

[solex]

Really good work by the OP.

Would be nice to see the same methodology used on MtGox daily price data as well.

[chenchunyu88]

So this is only predicting about a 3x increase in hashrate by October as a worst case? That seems pretty optimistic to me. The ASIC race is ramping up so the growth we saw in the beginning of the year isn't a very good model. What happens when you use a smaller, more recent, window of data?

If I use the latest 60 days data, the worst case is 1128246.6GHs 60 days after (but I am not expect that to happen). Let's see which one gives better prediction on Sep, 15, 2013.

I will continue to improve the model by adding a learning procedure and keep updating the estimates.

[ujka]

Great work! I like it much better then those 'constant % increase' scenarios.

[LeslieDilley]

... I like it much better then those 'constant % increase' scenarios.

He's basically just making different scenarios which have time-interval re-evaluations - a 'constant % increase' occurs between each time intervals based on R's criteria.

Note the glaring purple line that is LINEAR? ...... that's his expected value for the system - and it's essentially a constant % increase.

hardly 'great work' imho.

-Johnny
www.americandatafarms.com

[ujka]

Note the glaring purple line that is LINEAR? ...... that's his expected value for the system - and it's essentially a constant % increase.

Linear line, on linear chart, does not mean constant % increase.
Constant % increase on linear chart would be shown with exp. line.