The mother of all traps?

[ElectricMucus]

SO why exactly is scaling time 2.5/3 to 1 'right' and all other ways 'wrong'? Because sometimes it fits the chart better?

Yes because it fits the chart better. Duh?

You are free to post any other comparison you can come up with. I haven't found another one that fits, perhaps you have more luck.
Why get people so concerned with this? For all I care it's a coincidence and the price can break the correlation any time.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Yay, rpietila is back! I'd lay off the meds and just get a ton of exercise and Sun (I'd say good food, but I know you got that covered ). Men weren't built for this modern indoor lifestyle, it can make one go insane all by itself. Think about it: we're designed so that when stress builds up we're usually in a fight-or-flight situation where we'll burn off the hormones that are secreted. Nowadays we just stew in them, which messes us up physically and mentally.

[Rampion]

Trap currently closing. Pretty funny situation as there is more than a 10% divergence between Bitstamp and Gox; the inability to withdraw fiat from Gox is distorting the price and will probably extend the pain for the bulls in denial, as an impulsive move down is pretty much pointless if the fiat cannot be withdrawn by the traders.

[lucas.sev]

Trap currently closing. Pretty funny situation as there is more than a 10% divergence between Bitstamp and Gox; the inability to withdraw fiat from Gox is distorting the price and will probably extend the pain for the bulls in denial, as an impulsive move down is pretty much pointless if the fiat cannot be withdrawn by the traders.

Do you seriously think that many people withdrew money after the 10april collapse? My bet is that there is at least the same amount of fiat/btc worth of fiat in the mtgox accounts, in different hands though.

[Rampion]

Trap currently closing. Pretty funny situation as there is more than a 10% divergence between Bitstamp and Gox; the inability to withdraw fiat from Gox is distorting the price and will probably extend the pain for the bulls in denial, as an impulsive move down is pretty much pointless if the fiat cannot be withdrawn by the traders.

Do you seriously think that many people withdrew money after the 10april collapse? My bet is that there is at least the same amount of fiat/btc worth of fiat in the mtgox accounts, in different hands though.

You will lose that bet big time.

I can give you two facts:

a) I personally withdrew *big time* after the april 10th collapse (at the very beginning of June to be precise).

b) the ATH fiat on Gox's order book its been +$22M. For the last month it has been fluctuating between $11M and $13M. Sure that doesn't represent ALL the fiat on Gox, but the "visible" amount is inevitable correlated with the "invisible" amount.

Most of speculators realize their fiat profits (or cut their losses) after a bubble pop. Most are in this to make money, its summer and everybody can use some profits.

[lucas.sev]

You will lose that bet big time.

I can give you two facts:

a) I personally withdrew *big time* after the april 10th collapse (at the very beginning of June to be precise).

b) the ATH fiat on Gox's order book its been +$22M. For the last month it has been fluctuating between $11M and $13M. Sure that doesn't represent ALL the fiat on Gox, but the "visible" amount is inevitable correlated with the "invisible" amount.

Most of speculators realize their fiat profits (or cut their losses) after a bubble pop. Most are in this to make money, its summer and everybody can use some profits.

My view is that the book is worth less than money sitting in the sidelines. I suppose you do not share this view?

[Rampion]

You will lose that bet big time.

I can give you two facts:

a) I personally withdrew *big time* after the april 10th collapse (at the very beginning of June to be precise).

b) the ATH fiat on Gox's order book its been +$22M. For the last month it has been fluctuating between $11M and $13M. Sure that doesn't represent ALL the fiat on Gox, but the "visible" amount is inevitable correlated with the "invisible" amount.

Most of speculators realize their fiat profits (or cut their losses) after a bubble pop. Most are in this to make money, its summer and everybody can use some profits.

My view is that the book is worth less than money sitting in the sidelines. I suppose you do not share this view?

I share it, I think the book is only a % of the total amount of money in the sidelines, something around 30% and 50% - but still I think the % is pretty consistent and can be used to have a rough idea of the money flow.

At the very beginning of 2013 there were $2M on Gox's book, and that figure was pretty much constant since Sept. 2012. From February 2013 the fiat in Gox's order book started to skyrocket, until it reached +$23M at the bubble top. IMO that represents A LOT of new money flowing to Gox, and the recent halving of the order book money represents a slow but steady declining of fiat. The book is no reliable indicator and its easily manipulable, but still it gives a rough picture that is useful to check the buying and selling pressure in certain points.

[lucas.sev]

You will lose that bet big time.

I can give you two facts:

a) I personally withdrew *big time* after the april 10th collapse (at the very beginning of June to be precise).

b) the ATH fiat on Gox's order book its been +$22M. For the last month it has been fluctuating between $11M and $13M. Sure that doesn't represent ALL the fiat on Gox, but the "visible" amount is inevitable correlated with the "invisible" amount.

Most of speculators realize their fiat profits (or cut their losses) after a bubble pop. Most are in this to make money, its summer and everybody can use some profits.

My view is that the book is worth less than money sitting in the sidelines. I suppose you do not share this view?

I share it, I think the book is only a % of the total amount of money in the sidelines, something around 30% and 50% - but still I think the % is pretty consistent and can be used to have a rough idea of the money flow.

At the very beginning of 2013 there were $2M on Gox's book, and that figure was pretty much constant since Sept. 2012. From February 2013 the fiat in Gox's order book started to skyrocket, until it reached +$23M at the bubble top. IMO that represents A LOT of new money flowing to Gox, and the recent halving of the order book money represents a slow but steady declining of fiat. The book is no reliable indicator and its easily manipulable, but still it gives a rough picture that is useful to check the buying and selling pressure in certain points.

Rembember that it was possible to set orders without actually having money in the account not so long ago. Wonder how much this skewed the book.

[N12]

Rembember that it was possible to set orders without actually having money in the account not so long ago. Wonder how much this skewed the book.

It never was. What you're talking about is being able to set an unfunded "placeholder" order that doesn't appear in the order book until the funds arrive, and the order is either partly or fully activated.

[Rampion]

Rembember that it was possible to set orders without actually having money in the account not so long ago. Wonder how much this skewed the book.

It never was. What you're talking about is being able to set an unfunded "placeholder" order that doesn't appear in the order book until the funds arrive, and the order is either partly or fully activated.

Exactly. BTW: lucas.sev, do you trade or just comment? I'm curious.

[lucas.sev]

Rembember that it was possible to set orders without actually having money in the account not so long ago. Wonder how much this skewed the book.

It never was. What you're talking about is being able to set an unfunded "placeholder" order that doesn't appear in the order book until the funds arrive, and the order is either partly or fully activated.

Exactly. BTW: lucas.sev, do you trade or just comment? I'm curious.

I trade few times a month. Still very new to trading. I used bitcoin in 2011, and heard about them before (people mining them with radeons 5970) but was too young to think of them as an investment. Also, suspecting where the question comes from: I do not believe comments on this forum have ANY power over the price.

[Rampion]

Rembember that it was possible to set orders without actually having money in the account not so long ago. Wonder how much this skewed the book.

It never was. What you're talking about is being able to set an unfunded "placeholder" order that doesn't appear in the order book until the funds arrive, and the order is either partly or fully activated.

Exactly. BTW: lucas.sev, do you trade or just comment? I'm curious.

I trade few times a month. Still very new to trading. I used bitcoin in 2011, and heard about them before but was too young to think of them as an investment. Also, suspecting where the question comes from: I do not believe comments on this forum have ANY power over the price.

I was just surprised by the "it was possible to set orders without actually having money in the account" statement.

Those orders placed with no money never did shit, the trading platform clearly said "not enough funds" and those non-backed orders never appeared on the order book. If you were trading just a couple months ago you would have known.

[lucas.sev]

Rembember that it was possible to set orders without actually having money in the account not so long ago. Wonder how much this skewed the book.

It never was. What you're talking about is being able to set an unfunded "placeholder" order that doesn't appear in the order book until the funds arrive, and the order is either partly or fully activated.

Exactly. BTW: lucas.sev, do you trade or just comment? I'm curious.

I trade few times a month. Still very new to trading. I used bitcoin in 2011, and heard about them before but was too young to think of them as an investment. Also, suspecting where the question comes from: I do not believe comments on this forum have ANY power over the price.

I was just surprised by the "it was possible to set orders without actually having money in the account" statement.

Those orders placed with no money never did shit, the trading platform clearly said "not enough funds" and those non-backed orders never appeared on the order book. If you were trading just a couple months ago you would have known.

I never tried placing them that's why I did not know, but I remember there was an announcement from mtgox that it is no longer to place orders when you have not enough funds.

[Rampion]

Rembember that it was possible to set orders without actually having money in the account not so long ago. Wonder how much this skewed the book.

It never was. What you're talking about is being able to set an unfunded "placeholder" order that doesn't appear in the order book until the funds arrive, and the order is either partly or fully activated.

Exactly. BTW: lucas.sev, do you trade or just comment? I'm curious.

I trade few times a month. Still very new to trading. I used bitcoin in 2011, and heard about them before but was too young to think of them as an investment. Also, suspecting where the question comes from: I do not believe comments on this forum have ANY power over the price.

I was just surprised by the "it was possible to set orders without actually having money in the account" statement.

Those orders placed with no money never did shit, the trading platform clearly said "not enough funds" and those non-backed orders never appeared on the order book. If you were trading just a couple months ago you would have known.

I never tried placing them that's why I did not know, but I remember there was an announcement from mtgox that it is no longer to place orders when you have not enough funds.

Yep, that was a DDoS related improvement. People abused the trading engine by placing thousands of non-backed orders that flooded the system while having no practical effect on the book or the trading itself. This is why they couldn't fight DDoS just by standard means.

[smoothie]

So far the mother of all traps is "BUY at $266".

It was "BUY at $32".

In the next year I suspect it will be "BUY at $500 to $1000".

[EuroTrash]

So far the mother of all traps is "BUY at $266".

It was "BUY at $32".

In the next year I suspect it will be "BUY at $500 to $1000".

Dude I was missing you.
A big buy happens, price shoots up 8% and here you are!

Thanks. In a way you're good for the mood.

[smoothie]

So far the mother of all traps is "BUY at $266".

It was "BUY at $32".

In the next year I suspect it will be "BUY at $500 to $1000".

Dude I was missing you.
A big buy happens, price shoots up 8% and here you are!

Thanks. In a way you're good for the mood.

Price jumped 80% now?....

Someone should be making Bitcoin seat belts to fasten themselves in for this next rocket.

[saddambitcoin]

i'm strapped in and ready for the ride, i won't be missing out on it

[smoothie]

I guess it wasn't a trap. We now sitting at $130 to $140.

[rpietila]

If I remember correctly this pattern on weekly is called "bullish engulfing" which is a reversal pattern. What it practically means is that it should go above 105 and stay above it, then reversal is confirmed and it is rally time for 5-15 weeks. For all I know it could end up above 500$.

On clarkmoody's weekly chart we have quite an awesome hammer in reversal pattern too (they build weekly chart a bit differently there)

Also the fact that all the bitcointalk bulls are so bearish is a dead giveaway that market will actually reverse to punish the suckers as it always tries to inflict the maximum pain on them.

Moreover, on daily chart (clarkmoody), it appears today we have broken over descending trendline on high volume simultaneously going over both moving averages at the same time. Lots of technicals are pointing to reversal. Your typical TA guru here would be advising to wait a few days for confirmation i.e. a few more daily candles closing above 105$ to get a high probability entrance onto the next up legs that is likely to develop into the x-mas from here on.

As I have predicted earlier all the suckers who bought in 260's have sold all their coins to those suckers who sold in 70's by now, as such the market have no purpose to stay here and it can finally move on.

[..]

Let's actually wait and see.

So we've waited and we've seen it (more to come). Who called the bottom? (Note that quoted chart is automatically updated and the call was made on July 12th)

As of now, it looks like it was a good call