ActiveMining Overview and Speculation Thread

[Subcide]

I'm thinking prepare for a large dump when btct resolves their bid errors.

[vlaoou321]

I speculate a major price drop as China wakes up - people taking profits after late night spike

Please excuse the unbridled optimism below, I'm feeling really good about my Active Mining investment at the moment.

It's obvious to me that a lot of people are failing to realize the incredible investment potential of Active Mining at the moment.  Anyone thinking of profit taking at this time, in my opinion will regret it later.

Let's for a second talk about chip sales.  If for the sake of conversation Active Mining was to sell 1,000,000 USD worth of chips in a given week (compared to previous sales by Avalon, this would be a slow week).  Let's assume they are selling the chips at a 100% markup, that would equate to 500,000 USD in profit.  Divide that profit by the 10,000,000 shares and you get .0005555/share just in chip sales (assuming USD conversion rate of $90/btc).

That's an incredible .028886/share/year!

Someone with 1000 shares would have paid 4btc at .004 and received 28.886 back just in dividends in the first year.  And that's ONLY counting chip sales.  Add in mining, and other hardware and you can see that this stock is INSANELY undervalued at the moment.

The above is admittedly invalid as after .0025 is paid in dividends, the remaining 15,000,000 company shares will begin to receive dividends, but for the sake of conversation, you can see the magnitude of the potential here.

I personally won't be profit taking until .02

You forget that if bitcoin $ 500 each, and after BTF Avalon, forward commodity reputation stink

[grimholt]

What a weird day... Amazing movement (~60% increase on the day) and not much chatter.

I guess everyone is just waiting on news.

Won't be too much news until after Ken meets with eAsic on Wednesday

If I wasn't a broke student I would definitely buy more shares before we get the news on how the meeting went. Oh well, hopefully I wont stay broke that much longer holding the amount of ActM shares that I do.

[hazryder]

What a weird day... Amazing movement (~60% increase on the day) and not much chatter.

I guess everyone is just waiting on news.

Won't be too much news until after Ken meets with eAsic on Wednesday

If I wasn't a broke student I would definitely buy more shares before we get the news on how the meeting went. Oh well, hopefully I wont stay broke that much longer holding the amount of ActM shares that I do.

I feel you on that, if all goes to plan my ActM shares will pay off my student overdraft and buy me ramen for the next 2 years, hell I might even be able to splash out and buy some real food once in a while. Living that student life...

[grimholt]

What a weird day... Amazing movement (~60% increase on the day) and not much chatter.

I guess everyone is just waiting on news.

Won't be too much news until after Ken meets with eAsic on Wednesday

If I wasn't a broke student I would definitely buy more shares before we get the news on how the meeting went. Oh well, hopefully I wont stay broke that much longer holding the amount of ActM shares that I do.

I feel you on that, if all goes to plan my ActM shares will pay off my student overdraft and buy me ramen for the next 2 years, hell I might even be able to splash out and buy some real food once in a while. Living that student life...

Indeed. I love the student life, but it's certainly not a rich one (money wise anyways).

Everything rarely goes according to plan, but recently my hopes for ActiveMining has been exceeded, and I now have 100 % faith that they will be able to deliver. I guess the limiting factor to how high we can go is how the rest of the market develops.

Messages like the one KnCMiner sent out a couple of days ago (that they will not ship new devices until March 2014), will hopefully lead to a lot of them going with ActM instead.

Also, dhenson's calculation of dividend payments from chip sales alone gives a sense of the potential of the company. Especially factoring in that sales revenue isn't tied that much up to difficulty (if anything, increased difficulty means people will need more chips/miners for keeping profits up):

Please excuse the unbridled optimism below, I'm feeling really good about my Active Mining investment at the moment.

It's obvious to me that a lot of people are failing to realize the incredible investment potential of Active Mining at the moment.  Anyone thinking of profit taking at this time, in my opinion will regret it later.

Let's for a second talk about chip sales.  If for the sake of conversation Active Mining was to sell 1,000,000 USD worth of chips in a given week (compared to previous sales by Avalon, this would be a slow week).  Let's assume they are selling the chips at a 100% markup, that would equate to 500,000 USD in profit.  Divide that profit by the 10,000,000 shares and you get .0005555/share just in chip sales (assuming USD conversion rate of $90/btc).

That's an incredible .028886/share/year!

Someone with 1000 shares would have paid 4btc at .004 and received 28.886 back just in dividends in the first year.  And that's ONLY counting chip sales.  Add in mining, and other hardware and you can see that this stock is INSANELY undervalued at the moment.

The above is admittedly invalid as after .0025 is paid in dividends, the remaining 15,000,000 company shares will begin to receive dividends, but for the sake of conversation, you can see the magnitude of the potential here.

I personally won't be profit taking until .02

[stenkross]

I speculate a major price drop as China wakes up - people taking profits after late night spike

Please excuse the unbridled optimism below, I'm feeling really good about my Active Mining investment at the moment.

It's obvious to me that a lot of people are failing to realize the incredible investment potential of Active Mining at the moment.  Anyone thinking of profit taking at this time, in my opinion will regret it later.

Let's for a second talk about chip sales.  If for the sake of conversation Active Mining was to sell 1,000,000 USD worth of chips in a given week (compared to previous sales by Avalon, this would be a slow week).  Let's assume they are selling the chips at a 100% markup, that would equate to 500,000 USD in profit.  Divide that profit by the 10,000,000 shares and you get .0005555/share just in chip sales (assuming USD conversion rate of $90/btc).

That's an incredible .028886/share/year!

Someone with 1000 shares would have paid 4btc at .004 and received 28.886 back just in dividends in the first year.  And that's ONLY counting chip sales.  Add in mining, and other hardware and you can see that this stock is INSANELY undervalued at the moment.

The above is admittedly invalid as after .0025 is paid in dividends, the remaining 15,000,000 company shares will begin to receive dividends, but for the sake of conversation, you can see the magnitude of the potential here.

I personally won't be profit taking until .02

You forget that if bitcoin $ 500 each, and after BTF Avalon, forward commodity reputation stink

Soo, if 1BTC = $90 we get rich since we get many BTC's.
If 1BTC = $500 we also get rich since we get fewer BTC's but they are worth 5x more.

I can live with any of those options.

[VinceSamios]

With the extra 300GH or whatever coming online soon, dividends on current price/share give about a 40% annual ROI - and with 5.6TH coming online it's going to be well over 100%/annum - that will keep the company ticking over until they can get the 28nm process online. With that in mind in the short term I think it's reasonable for shares to be priced at 0.012/each based on dividend ROI alone - Then when the 28nm chips are completed AM will dominate mining competitors - the pre-orders and post-orders will fund the AM mining rigs, so basically zero cost 28nm mining hardware. AM could get 100TH online in a heart beat. So with that in mind, medium term it's reasonable for shares to be valued at 0.12 each. Remember we are calculating ROI on shares determining share price. Ok, let's say people want 20% annual ROI to be happy - so 0.06/share... Although I'm forgetting dividend priority currently in place, so its actually more like 0.02/share - I'm still not complaining and the future looks bright.

[sayaz]

Indeed. I love the student life, but it's certainly not a rich one (money wise anyways).

Everything rarely goes according to plan, but recently my hopes for ActiveMining has been exceeded, and I now have 100 % faith that they will be able to deliver. I guess the limiting factor to how high we can go is how the rest of the market develops.

Messages like the one KnCMiner sent out a couple of days ago (that they will not ship new devices until March 2014), will hopefully lead to a lot of them going with ActM instead.

Also, dhenson's calculation of dividend payments from chip sales alone gives a sense of the potential of the company. Especially factoring in that sales revenue isn't tied that much up to difficulty (if anything, increased difficulty means people will need more chips/miners for keeping profits up):

Sales revenue will be tied to the difficulty at some point.

Difficulty will end up being a factor because as the hash rate rises so does the difficulty and eventually we reach a point where this generation of mining equipment is no longer a sound investment because of little or no ROI. And it is probably a lot closer than we think if there are all these companies beginning to output 'industrial' size amounts of computing power.

Is my thinking correct?

[VinceSamios]

It will become a race for efficiency - which gives AM a pretty decent head start with a 28nm process.

[VinceSamios]

Also the race has a while to go, with 5nm processes not far off - although the money required to get those off the ground might remain prohibitive until BTC hits $1000/btc - at which point spending $25mil to develop a chip is a no-brainer.

[kleeck]

It will become a race for efficiency - which gives AM a pretty decent head start with a 28nm process.

Sorry to nitpick, but AM is the competition. I'm sure you are referring to ActiveMining (or ActM, as many of us have come to call them). This is a small issue that is oft complained about. We need to do away with referring to this security as AM (ASICMiner). It's simply inaccurate and confuses some of the newbies.

[ffssixtynine]

It will become a race for efficiency - which gives AM a pretty decent head start with a 28nm process.

Sorry to nitpick, but AM is the competition. I'm sure you are referring to ActiveMining (or ActM, as many of us have come to call them). This is a small issue that is oft complained about. We need to do away with referring to this security as AM (ASICMiner). It's simply inaccurate and confuses some of the newbies.

Agreed. ActiveMiner or ACT or something.

[grimholt]

It will become a race for efficiency - which gives AM a pretty decent head start with a 28nm process.

Sorry to nitpick, but AM is the competition. I'm sure you are referring to ActiveMining (or ActM, as many of us have come to call them). This is a small issue that is oft complained about. We need to do away with referring to this security as AM (ASICMiner). It's simply inaccurate and confuses some of the newbies.

Agreed. ActiveMiner or ACT or something.

I like ACT, or maybe ACTM in all block letters.

[VinceSamios]

Lets call them both "Pedantic Miner"

[hazryder]

I'm happy with ACTM, ACM, ATM or even ACMN.

[ArcticWolf]

I'm happy with ACTM, ACM, ATM or even ACMN.

Of those options I like ACTM, its the closest to ActM that we have been using anyway

[hazryder]

I'm happy with ACTM, ACM, ATM or even ACMN.

Of those options I like ACTM, its the closest to ActM that we have been using anyway

+1

Having it in all caps just makes it easier, and ACTM is probably the most relevant abbreviation (Pronounced "Act-m").

[Streets 2.0]

I'm happy with ACTM, ACM, ATM or even ACMN.

Of those options I like ACTM, its the closest to ActM that we have been using anyway

ActM is what Ken and others have used as an abreviation for a bit now, is kind of the defacto abbreviation

[grimholt]

I'm happy with ACTM, ACM, ATM or even ACMN.

Of those options I like ACTM, its the closest to ActM that we have been using anyway

+1

Having it in all caps just makes it easier, and ACTM is probably the most relevant abbreviation (Pronounced "Act-m").

I agree, companies usually have their stock abbreviation all in caps anyway. Since many of us have been using ActM already, the transition to ACTM shouldn't be too hard.

[neilol]

Back up!