[FINISHED] Bet on bitcoin future price here (July 1st, 2011)

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I agree that bets should be closed at least a few days before the time rolls around.

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[netrin]

I agree that bets should be closed at least a few days before the time rolls around.

Well, I wouldn't say "days". That would be pure hazard, fit for drunken gamblers, not nuanced gentlemen and ladies like ourselves. I think what we should be aiming for is a price spread that 'predicts' the future market. You must give a sufficient advantage (I say time^2) to early bids, but ideally you should allow for a market to approach the limit of 100% certainty (while rapidly approaching 0% gain).

[netrin]

The 0.16 BTC bet came from 16eg1Qs15Vq7mvpi2fPNQuYzBkhp5DhzNq, which gets 0.5462407407407... / 0.91294606481481481... = 59.83275% of the winnings, which I'll round up to 5.72 BTC (more than 35x gain!)

The 1.165 BTC bet came from 1NsvfVxNHzoz484aTSeutayTwGi6VQmqYL, which gets 0.36670532407407407... / 0.91294606481481481 = 40.16725% of the pot, which I'll round up to 3.84 BTC (more than 3x gain!)

I would like at least one person to double-check my math.

I used the seconds throughout the calculation and came to the same results:

close time in seconds: 1309521600
total winning weight: 78878.540 = 31683.340 + 47195.200
winnings after commission: 9.5481 = 9.743 * (1 - 0.02)

address: 6eg
wager: 0.160
bid time: 1309226630
weight: 47195.200 = (1309521600 - 1309226630) * 0.160
payout: 5.7128 = 9.5481 * 47195.200 / 78878.540

address: Nsv
wager: 1.165
bid time: 1309494404
weight: 31683.340 = (1309521600 - 1309494404 ) * 1.165
payout: 3.8352 = 9.5481 * 31683.340 / 78878.540

[TiagoTiago]

Interesting idea

[dacoinminster]

Payments were sent this morning, but for some reason my client broke them up into a bunch of separate transactions. You can see them all here: http://blockexplorer.com/address/1945qfobZxdnmVJ6qBd4FgcVcWBhDXKiTV

The wallet had been offline for awhile, and was still downloading blocks when I sent the coins, so maybe that has something to do with it.

It appears that the two winners got the right number of coins though. Netrin, can you confirm that?

This was an interesting experiment, and parts of it may serve as a model for future systems doing similar things. Thanks for participating.

[netrin]

Looks good to me:
http://blockexplorer.com/address/1945qfobZxdnmVJ6qBd4FgcVcWBhDXKiTV (Betting pool)
http://blockexplorer.com/address/16eg1Qs15Vq7mvpi2fPNQuYzBkhp5DhzNq (payout 5.72 btc)
http://blockexplorer.com/address/1NsvfVxNHzoz484aTSeutayTwGi6VQmqYL (payout 3.84 btc)

[mndrix]

It looks like the bet was handled according to the rules.  Unless I hear otherwise, I'll release dacoinminster's bond on Monday.

[dacoinminster]

It looks like the bet was handled according to the rules.  Unless I hear otherwise, I'll release dacoinminster's bond on Monday.

Thanks for holding the bond for me mndrix! Without your help, I would have just looked like I was trying to steal bitcoins

I created an address for receiving the bond back from you: 18CeiS44ZFP4kXdgzx3yNocwqRqyDZxghu (I will confirm that address via my personal email from which I have corresponded with you in the past)

There's probably no other forum in the world where trust matters as much as it does here. It used to be that being a "hero member" was synonymous with being trusted here, but now they are a dime a dozen. The OTC web of trust is awesome, but not much use outside of that small circle, as most people (me included) have never used it.

Having a history of projects and successful financial transactions seems to be the best way to build trust here, and that is how I decide who to trust.

[WiseOldOwl]

There's probably no other forum in the world where trust matters as much as it does here. It used to be that being a "hero member" was synonymous with being trusted here, but now they are a dime a dozen. The OTC web of trust is awesome, but not much use outside of that small circle, as most people (me included) have never used it.

Having a history of projects and successful financial transactions seems to be the best way to build trust here, and that is how I decide who to trust.

+1

[mndrix]

I created an address for receiving the bond back from you: 18CeiS44ZFP4kXdgzx3yNocwqRqyDZxghu (I will confirm that address via my personal email from which I have corresponded with you in the past)

I've returned the 50 BTC bond to 18CeiS44ZFP4kXdgzx3yNocwqRqyDZxghu in transaction dea182c9888fe6265b889453015b4826c41ce552548eec692f5740cd24b76a46

[dacoinminster]

I've returned the 50 BTC bond to 18CeiS44ZFP4kXdgzx3yNocwqRqyDZxghu in transaction dea182c9888fe6265b889453015b4826c41ce552548eec692f5740cd24b76a46

I confirm receipt of the bond. Thanks!