[WTB] Series 1 Casascius Coin with Casacius error 1 and 25 BTC

[ffssixtynine]

To indulge my own Bitcoin interest I'm looking for 1 of each of the original, misprinted 1 and 25
BTC coins (must be unused and mint).

Graded by ANACS a bonus; evidence of purchase and a good OTC/Bitcointalk reputation required.

Will pay in BTC. Am based in the UK (bear this in mind for postage/insurance).

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[Chainsaw]

To my knowledge, the only recipients of graded ANACS coins to date have been to SgtSpike and myself.
He's got the first-ever graded, and first 2011 error.

I've got:
-first graded 2011 1 BTC error with ANACS attribution (MS-65)
-first graded 2012 1 BTC (MS-65)
-first graded 5 BTC w/ error (MS-65)
-first graded 25 BTC w/ error (MS-65)

I also have a few of the above types in MS-66 grade (a few 1 BTC, exactly 1 of the 5 BTC, none in 25 BTC).

ANACS will not grade the 100 BTC, as they don't fit their classification of 'coin'.

Some things to keep in mind:

How many unredeemed copies exist for each error coin?

1 BTC error       over 1000
5 BTC error   625
25 BTC error   227
100 BTC error   18

(You can track these at http://96.35.127.219/casascius/?type=100&status=active&ver=1  The counts above are approximate, as I've hand-counted the categories.

I've watched as those numbers have diminished. And remember - the error coins were some of the first ones printed. Many were lost, given away as trinkets when Bitcoin prices were in the single digit range.
Of the ones that remain, obviously not all were kept in mint condition. So we can reasonably expect the mint population counts to be lower.

I'm not terribly interested in selling mine. (For the right price I suppose I would, but I have no idea what that would be.)  I have the expectation that bitcoin will, in time, be at least four digits in value. I'd prefer to roll the dice on cashing in until then.

You might want to message SgtSpike to see if he still has any for sale.  Otherwise, nightowlace and johnniewalker are always rotating their casascius inventories, and might be able to help you out.

Good luck! They're quite beautiful to see, cased up.  And I really think that a few years from now, we'll look back and say "How on Earth did we not recognize how incredibly rare, how significant of a first, these coins were?"
And if I'm wrong...well, at least they're worth their spot bitcoin value :-)

[ffssixtynine]

Thanks for the feedback. Really useful.

[Chainsaw]

Thanks for the feedback. Really useful.

I'm happy to help. I'm not looking to profit in the short term; just to share my researched view of why I see this as an excellent bitcoin-based investment for the long term.

https://i.imgur.com/nGPlGCJ.jpg[/img]]

https://i.imgur.com/R3IvvKc.jpg[/img]]

[ffssixtynine]

As a long term investment I'm not so sure.

If bitcoin values drop, bitcoin disappears, or it doesn't go past $1000 or so then yes I agree. If Bitcoins head towards $10,000, which they would if they became seen as a solid investment worldwide alongside gold, then I find it difficult to believe that the actual coins would be worth the current BTC multiples being charged. In which case you'd be better just holding on to the currency.

Right now I think they work both as a collectors item and a short term investment. Long term, if you're very positive about Bitcoin, they aren't good value. At least the 1 BTC ones.

My interest is basically as a collector and I'd fund it from some recent trading profits

What do you think?

[dozerz]

i also have 2011 with error, pm me for details.

[KarmaShark]

As a long term investment I'm not so sure.

If bitcoin values drop, bitcoin disappears, or it doesn't go past $1000 or so then yes I agree. If Bitcoins head towards $10,000, which they would if they became seen as a solid investment worldwide alongside gold, then I find it difficult to believe that the actual coins would be worth the current BTC multiples being charged. In which case you'd be better just holding on to the currency.

Right now I think they work both as a collectors item and a short term investment. Long term, if you're very positive about Bitcoin, they aren't good value. At least the 1 BTC ones.

My interest is basically as a collector and I'd fund it from some recent trading profits

What do you think?

I own one of the 1BTC 2011 errors so I may be a bit bias here. If one believes BTC will have significant long term value then I see no reason why these would not carry a hefty premium over their face value regardless of the current price valued in fiat. I liken these to one of the first ever stamped gold bars with a digital serial of authenticity for all to see and drool at. Having a rare misprint of the first Dollar bill could also be a comparison collectors and ฿ wealthy individuals may adopt as these increase in rarity and value. In time fewer of these will remain unspent and in good condition, there is no reason why the few that remain in the future could be considered priceless to some when viewed through the lens of a global booming market.

Given how few are out there, how big the ฿ economy is growing by the day and the mindset of investors that seek rarities and collectables in healthy markets I see grabbing one of these as an absolute no-brainer. There is and will continue to be a lot more ฿ chasing value than there will be 2011 error coins to absorb demand.

[ffssixtynine]

My thinking is as follows.

At the moment those coins are being sold for 3.5-8 BTC (that's the range I've been quoted privately/auctions). If Bitcoin remains below $1000 then I can totally see them carrying a large premium.

If Bitcoin goes much above $1,000, then they will retain a high value in fiat but I don't see them retaining this value in BTC terms. Things need to be very rare to be above $10,000 in value and we can see from Chainsaw's post that they simply aren't that rare. There are 1000+ unredeemed if those figures are correct. They'll be collectable and they'll be a high value in fiat for sure, but I can't possibly see them retaining their Bitcoin multiple in the long term. As such, an investment in Bitcoin itself is better than in an actual coin.

To put it another way, $800 as an upper end price right now is ok. Let's say there are 1000 of them. That means there are $800,000 worth of them in existence. If Bitcoin hits $10,000 which it could easily do in 10 years if it took off as a commodity (not just for transactions), those coins are worth $80 million and each one is $80,000. With 1000 available, I just can't see it balancing out like that. Discounting the balance, that values the rarity at $70,000. 1000 items just doesn't seem rare enough for that.

100 items still sounds too many but maybe not - think of it as 100 prints from Andy Warhol - I wonder how much the best ones are worth? I found this link for a $200,000 print but I can't find how many were originally made.

http://en.rian.ru/art_living/20130321/180147013.html

However, I am not an expert and I would be very happy to be persuaded otherwise

The 25 BTC coin is actually looking more interesting value wise. As a multiple of its BTC value, these go for 1.3-1.8x or so. They are also much more rare. And they look pretty (!).

So, in pure value terms I think the 1 BTC coins are collectable but not good value in BTC, where as the 25 BTC coins - if obtained at a good price - are much more interesting.

Of course I'd still like one, I'm just hesitant at current prices compared to other Bitcoin investments. For investment purposes I'd prefer a 25 BTC coin. The 100 BTC coin is really interesting too. I don't know prices for these as I haven't checked around. And they look properly rare, which is what you really want.

To sum up, I'm saying that versus an investment in BTC itself, I'm not yet persuaded the numbers stack up. As a pure fiat investment, sure! And if BTC goes nowhere, it's a great hedge.

And they are very, very cool.

[Chainsaw]

As a long term investment I'm not so sure.

If bitcoin values drop, bitcoin disappears, or it doesn't go past $1000 or so then yes I agree. If Bitcoins head towards $10,000, which they would if they became seen as a solid investment worldwide alongside gold, then I find it difficult to believe that the actual coins would be worth the current BTC multiples being charged. In which case you'd be better just holding on to the currency.

Right now I think they work both as a collectors item and a short term investment. Long term, if you're very positive about Bitcoin, they aren't good value. At least the 1 BTC ones.

My interest is basically as a collector and I'd fund it from some recent trading profits

What do you think?

I tend to agree with KarmaShark.  It's a sub-investment of Bitcoin, no hedge involved. If Bitcoin goes to zero, so too does the coin investment. (Caveats for those including gold and silver within the coins.)

But I do think that the premiums will scale with the spot value.

An ounce of gold is worth around $1200 right now.  A St. Gaudens coin, in a high quality state, commands a premium that is many multiples of that spot price.
Take a look at this chart, you'll see high-grade examples selling for $200,000+.

http://www.pcgs.com/prices/PriceGuideDetail.aspx?MS=1&PR=1&SP=1&c=67

Being positioned as the first minted Bitcoin, and the first run at that...it seems pretty sound that these will be considered a must-have for any serious bitcoin collector.

Now if and when the price of Bitcoin scales to the prices we're talking about - it's true, they'll no longer be buyable by the 'common investor'.  I envision them selling, years down the road, at one of the larger collectible coin auctions, or perhaps as a submission to one of the fancy-pants auction houses (Christies, Sothebys).  There will be a market for them, just not the marketplace that people like us usually go shopping.

[ffssixtynine]

I tend to agree with KarmaShark.  It's a sub-investment of Bitcoin, no hedge involved. If Bitcoin goes to zero, so too does the coin investment. (Caveats for those including gold and silver within the coins.)

I don't agree here. If Bitcoin fails, I think it'll still be seen as the first digital currency of major significance and I think the coins will retain a significant collector's value.

An ounce of gold is worth around $1200 right now.  A St. Gaudens coin, in a high quality state, commands a premium that is many multiples of that spot price.
Take a look at this chart, you'll see high-grade examples selling for $200,000+.

http://www.pcgs.com/prices/PriceGuideDetail.aspx?MS=1&PR=1&SP=1&c=67

So the thing to know is - how rare is rare when it comes to these higher value coins? Is 1000 considered 'rare' enough to be really high value, or 100, or 10? The rarity factor is what's important when we're talking these prices.

Of course I agree that the coin will be collectable and valuable, but when you have 1000 of them then they will move around dealers and owners. Not in huge numbers, but sufficient to act as a price control. When you have 100 of them, hardly any will change hands in any year, maybe 5-10. And in the case of the 100 BTC coin (which I'm increasingly tempted by if one came up), hardly ever.

I agree with everything you say, my conjecture is purely around the BTC multiple involved since that's what's important if you're dealing with BTC already. If I pay 6 BTC now and it's worth 3 BTC (but $30,000) in the future, I should have just kept my 6 BTC, or kept 4 BTC and bought one of the more recent series (which I've ordered for around 2 BTC).

However, this still comes back to knowing the rarity value. Is 100 of a coin rare, or 10, or 1000? How rare must a coin be to be worth $200,000? We can't know exactly but history must have examples.

BTW Thanks for your really valuable input. What do think to other people making/planning on making coins?

Edit: The bottom 2-3 sections give an indication of rarity numbers for some high grade, high value coins. 100-150. At much lower numbers, you're talking really high value. I think 1 BTC coins are of most interest right now purely down to affordability.

http://www.pcgs.com/prices/PriceGuideDetail.aspx?MS=4&PR=1&SP=1&c=67

EDIT: 100 BTC are bars, my bad. Still relevant.

[ffssixtynine]

Here are the precise Series 1 numbers (no hand counting!) based on the link provided.

1 BTC: 5098
5 BTC: 611
25 BTC: 225
100 BTC: 18

These are all series 1 coins. Do all series 1 coins have the typo or only until date XXX (sometime in Nov'11)? How can we tell? If you let me know, I'll do the calculations.

EDIT: Just read up and checked some of the addresses and I think these are all series 1's with errors.

Series 2 (based on the link)
1 BTC: 10397
5 BTC: 490
25 BTC: 350
100 BTC: 36

Note I also have a discrepancy with the 100 BTC bars - I may be out by 18.

500 BTC and 1000 BTC bars - now they are properly rare.

[Nightowlace]

To my knowledge, the only recipients of graded ANACS coins to date have been to SgtSpike and myself.

False I have some that are MS 67

[Nightowlace]

Also you should be looking at these as collectible coins. Not as Bitcoins. Bitcoin will fluctuate in value $1-$?? Who knows what. The point is that any coin collector will tell you rare coins with history can fetch massive amounts of money. This is why some wartime gold coins go for more than $50,000 each.

I also believe these coins will retain value whether or not Bitcoin soars or fails miserably. It's a piece of history. I'm sure people will add these to their collections and keep them for many years, they will be a conversation piece, a moment in time. They will be rare if bitcoin fails because most will destroy and redeem before bitcoin falls. Or if BTC soars they will be worth tens of thousands. Look at coins throughout history that are not used as currency anymore. They still hold massive value.

[Chainsaw]

Thanks for the official counts, I appreciate the data!

The rarity questions you're asking, I think you're driving at the Universal Rarity Scale:
http://3tend.com/article/coin-grading-basics

There won't be any way to know the precise numbers without hindsight. Factors, in my mind, will include:
-The 'curb appeal' of the coin - how does it make you feel when you get that first look?
-Historical significance, the story behind it.
-Rarity (with guaranteed future rarity).

Keeping with my horrible bias, I of course think Casascius coins win in all regards. They were the first minted digital currency, the first Bitcoin. On top of that, we get a misprint - the collector gods have smiled upon us :-)

Observing what the market has looked like over the last year, I have seen:
-Even a few months ago, you could find multiple 1 BTC error coins up for sale at any given time.  Prices generally varied from 3 to 6 bitcoins for the 1 BTC error.
-Prices seemed to hit a cap. Then, rather then seeing them go up or down more, supply dried up.

I suspect that many of the original buyers do not have intentions to resell them, certainly not for a 2x or 3x profit.  In short, at the present moment, I don't feel the market appreciates the true value of Bitcoins.  There is 'nobody' left to sell (because current prices are too low), and no one left to buy.

A final note on rarities. It's good to keep in mind that to compare apples to apples, you need to subdivide the populations you got into grades.
VERY crudely speaking, I would estimate:
1 BTC w/ error: 5098
Lost: 1500
Heavily worn: 1500 (Graded between maybe VF and AU)
Preserved since onset, maybe ~2000
(Now, pretending we fast-forward until they've all been graded, because if I list the current graded counts, they'd seem way too scarce:)
MS65: 1800
MS66: 180
MS67: 18
MS68: 1
MS69: 1

Most collectors will hope for just getting a complete set. But the 'key date' will be the 2011 error coin. Then you'll have the MS-65 collectors, the MS-66 collectors...

Each will have its own price, each linked to the other prices, but independently driven by its own rarity, condition, relative rarity to other coins, etc.

My guess is that, because we're wired to think/react so strangely, the demand for these will start to increase once Bitcoin prices have unquestionably demonstrated they are again on an uptrend.

(If nightowlace is selling, I'd highly recommend him. Great guy, you'll get what you ordered, no surprises.)

PS - There are only 18 Version 1 100 BTC bars, with the remainder being Version 2. It's a damn shame you can't get them graded!

[ffssixtynine]

Good analysis and can't disagree.

I think 4 BTC is an decent price for a good quality 1 BTC. 5 maybe. 6 is too much I decided. However, that's based on my expecting Bitcoins to head towards $5-$10,000 in the very long term, something they simply may not do.

The 5, 25 and 100 coins/bars are a bigger unknown.

Purely investment wise, I think there are other things around right now for people who are canny as the private prices are a little high. As a collector thing, I will certainly try and ensure I have a full set sooner or later. 

I'd happily buy from nightowlace as they know

Thanks again for the analysis and info.

[Chainsaw]

Good analysis and can't disagree.

I think 4 BTC is an decent price for a good quality 1 BTC. 5 maybe. 6 is too much I decided. However, that's based on my expecting Bitcoins to head towards $5-$10,000 in the very long term, something they simply may not do.

The 5, 25 and 100 coins/bars are a bigger unknown.

Purely investment wise, I think there are other things around right now for people who are canny as the private prices are a little high. As a collector thing, I will certainly try and ensure I have a full set sooner or later. 

I'd happily buy from nightowlace as they know

Thanks again for the analysis and info.

You're very welcome!
It's not much, but you could also post in this thread, stating the prices you're currently willing to buy:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=214589.msg2393180#msg2393180

It's a thread I started a few months ago with the goals of picking up a few more coins myself, but more importantly providing a place for 'Casacius' buyers and sellers to be able to find each other.

[ffssixtynine]

Posted on that link as I can buy in bulk at those prices.

If no one bites, nothing ventured nothing gained! I've got plenty of other things going on so I'm in no rush at all.

Also, nightowlace has a set on ebay.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=257113.0