[2017-11-12] Wired - Why your friends can't shut up about BTC

[gentlemand]

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/will-bitcoin-bubble-burst-or-crash-2017-psychology-cryptocurrency-economics

One of the few articles to be talking about the psychology behind all of this, though not exactly in great depth.

I'm surprised there haven't been many more articles on this angle because psychology is the overwhelming driver of it.

[Gotottack]

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/will-bitcoin-bubble-burst-or-crash-2017-psychology-cryptocurrency-economics

One of the few articles to be talking about the psychology behind all of this, though not exactly in great depth.

I'm surprised there haven't been many more articles on this angle because psychology is the overwhelming driver of it.

True! We can call it craze but sometimes people are just too fanatic when they experience something good about certain matters. Say for instance, in Bitcoins, we should know it has been the talk of the town lately because of its price as of writing; hence, people who at least know about Bitcoin will keep themselves in the loop by saying something about it for the sake of conversation. But, in fairness, based on what I see now, I think people are more concerned about earning through it rather than just by indulging into small talks about it.

[Iranus]

Yeah, I've always had the same idea in the back of my mind.  Thank God there's finally an article to tend to my confirmation bias.

I suppose when something is big but also hard to understand, some people can just think that they "might as well" put a small amount of their portfolio into it.

This could become more prominent if BTC transitions into normal markets and people find it easier to get as part of their pension funds.

[buwaytress]

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/will-bitcoin-bubble-burst-or-crash-2017-psychology-cryptocurrency-economics

One of the few articles to be talking about the psychology behind all of this, though not exactly in great depth.

I'm surprised there haven't been many more articles on this angle because psychology is the overwhelming driver of it.

That's partly because the great majority of writers (for mainstream media and for crypto portals) are actually still coming to grips with Bitcoin, let alone the rest of the crypto sphere. See an excerpt from that article above: "In just a few months, bitcoin's public perception has gone from that of an untraceable currency loved by dark web drug dealers to a potential get-rich-quick investment opportunity that everyone has an opinion on."

That's descriptive of the writer - like most - who're still struggling to catch up with Bitcoin. They've probably never used it, probably think they own a bit of coin because they "bought" some on a centralised wallet somewhere, and reading second-hand information from their peer networks... Forbes among them probably.

You'll find that the psychological aspect has been discussed on this forum, with the 10k mark in topics long before FT published that front page. *cough, cough, FOMO threads*

[hatshepsut93]

“The problem with the real bubble in economics is that we just don’t know it’s a bubble until it’s crashed,” says De Martino.

So, the article starts pretty neutral, but at the end it openly says that Bitcoin is a bubble. Huh?

It's really funny to see how people define bubble as "when value rises high and fast" instead of "when value rises high and fast, but then crashes". Because in first case we can just say that performance of Facebook and Apple and whatever other super successful company is just a bubble. But even if BTC will crash, it wouldn't mean that it's just like a tulip bubble, becasu Bitcoin has utility, and this utility will always be a source for some value.

[eth9888]

Well bubble or not time will tell. BTC has crashed by 90% in the past. Still, it's making ATH today right at this moment so...

[odolvlobo]

Finally, an article about Bitcoin that hasn't succumbed to the hysteria!

[odolvlobo]

“The problem with the real bubble in economics is that we just don’t know it’s a bubble until it’s crashed,” says De Martino.

So, the article starts pretty neutral, but at the end it openly says that Bitcoin is a bubble. Huh?

It's really funny to see how people define bubble as "when value rises high and fast" instead of "when value rises high and fast, but then crashes". Because in first case we can just say that performance of Facebook and Apple and whatever other super successful company is just a bubble. But even if BTC will crash, it wouldn't mean that it's just like a tulip bubble, becasu Bitcoin has utility, and this utility will always be a source for some value.

Keep in mind that a "crash" doesn't imply an impending value of 0. The stock market and housing prices went through bubbles in 2001 and 2006, but they didn't fall to 0. It means a return to a value that can be supported and sustained (or lower due to overreaction) based on utility. I believe that utility value of a bitcoin is far below the current price.

It is obvious to me that people are buying more bitcoins primarily with the intention of selling when the price is higher. That positive feedback is what is driving the price so high, and it can't last forever.

[gentlemand]

Keep in mind that a "crash" doesn't imply an impending value of 0. The stock market and housing prices went through bubbles in 2001 and 2006, but they didn't fall to 0. It means a return to a value that can be supported and sustained (or lower due to overreaction) based on utility. I believe that price is far below the current price.

Obviously something will pop before then, but what do you think would happen if polished lightning networks and much more segwit integration happens while the price is still eating the world?

[odolvlobo]

Keep in mind that a "crash" doesn't imply an impending value of 0. The stock market and housing prices went through bubbles in 2001 and 2006, but they didn't fall to 0. It means a return to a value that can be supported and sustained (or lower due to overreaction) based on utility. I believe that the utility value is far below the current price.

Obviously something will pop before then, but what do you think would happen if polished lightning networks and much more segwit integration happens while the price is still eating the world?

If (and I mean if) lightning is widely adopted, I can see the price possibly going up by another factor of 10 over the next 20 - 50 years. For it to go up even more, it would have to have wider adoption any other currency, and I don't think that is likely without some huge currency crisis.

[bbc.reporter]

Do your friends annoy you now that they are interested in bitcoin? This is the exact opposite a year ago when I was the one trying to talk about bitcoin, but no one listened.

I now reckon that most people are sheep and they only start taking an interest in something because of what they see on TV or social media.

[gentlemand]

Do your friends annoy you now that they are interested in bitcoin? This is the exact opposite a year ago when I was the one trying to talk about bitcoin, but no one listened.

I now reckon that most people are sheep and they only start taking an interest in something because of what they see on TV or social media.

I never really talked about it at length with anyone. Instead I gave everyone some Bitcoin whether they liked it or not. That shut them good and proper up and gave them no excuse to torment me either.

[etron]

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/will-bitcoin-bubble-burst-or-crash-2017-psychology-cryptocurrency-economics

One of the few articles to be talking about the psychology behind all of this, though not exactly in great depth.

I'm surprised there haven't been many more articles on this angle because psychology is the overwhelming driver of it.

why can not keep my mouth shut about bitcoin: because I think to talk about bitcoin to a friend / goal invites friends to live more advanced, have insight and make their economics fulfilled. When we talk about bitcoin with friends who have a join we will get an insight into bitcoin and as we talk to friends who have not joined so they are interested

[Lucius]

Very good article which in a rather simple way trying to explain human nature in relation with BTC or any other valuable asset.We see and we all know how powerful is media machine when something gets caught in its claws,and people consume it day by day.Something what is bad,risky,possible scam is converted in the goose that laid the golden eggs and everyone wants to have it.

When I mentioned BTC to some of my freinds a year or two ago most of them tell me to sell what I have because it is just only one more internet scam,today when they ask me about BTC and I say them how much is worth,they think i am kidding

Now some people are interested to invest because they do not want to miss the opportunity,especially when they see speculation about 100k$ or more in next year or two.

[gentlemand]

Now some people are interested to invest because they do not want to miss the opportunity,especially when they see speculation about 100k$ or more in next year or two.

It's pitiful how mindless people are. They're too late for the real opportunity by about two years which was the endless $250 phase. Of course no one wants to buy something when it's on its arse. They only want to buy at peaks so they can sell it for a loss because they join the herd in stampeding out.

This cycle will repeat for as long as the human race lasts, and maybe even beyond. It's depressing.