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Author Topic: Why do people sell at 15 when the price could rebound to 30?  (Read 6627 times)
JBDive
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July 04, 2011, 04:18:44 PM
 #21

I'm just trying to understand the mentality.

Because the price could just as easily drop to $1 again also.  Because people need fiat currency to buy something.  I personally have no intentions to sell under $18, but people always have reasons to sell.  Everytime you buy a bitcoin someone had to sell it.

The price could not drop to $1 since so many people are actively interested in Bitcoin, unless there is a fundamental problem with it.

Boy do I disagree with that one. Although BTC trends do not mimic the stock market entirely there are lessons from the stock market that can be applied. MSFT is one of the biggest companies in the world, generates a ton of money and is held by nearly every bank or fund managing firm in some way or another however their stock price has barely moved in 9 years. At the same time Pandora which makes ZERO profit was up 6% alone on Friday yet only a portion of it's stock can be publicly traded. There are far more "people" interested in MSFT but between dilution and shear speculation P trounced MSFT price gains last week.

Right now your seeing holiday selloff. This is a combination of the prior problems with GOX and the theft of coins, speculators taking profits, fewer buyers as buyers with money are on vacation and lastly I think the difficulty itself is driving away the low end miners that thought they could make some free money quick. Geeks get tired of new toys.
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TraderTimm
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July 04, 2011, 04:19:29 PM
 #22

What amuses me is every sub-2-dollar move is labeled a 'crash' if going down, and a 'rally' on the way back up. Right now, you have Tradehill at 15 and change, and Gox at 14.30 - and I'm waiting for the 'crash' people to come out of the woodwork.

Just have to develop a longer-term perspective to stay sane, can't react to every damn wiggle.

fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
AtlasONo
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July 04, 2011, 04:21:07 PM
 #23

Because it could reboud to $1
hiVe
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July 04, 2011, 04:28:09 PM
 #24

Because it could reboud to $1

The probability of that is like winning a lottery. Bitcoin is bound to go up.
SteveFL
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July 04, 2011, 04:31:00 PM
 #25

Hi, I'm one of those selling at 15.  This post will probably get me flamed for not being in the spirit of bitcoin, but here goes:

Every coin I've mined I've sold at the market rate of that day.  It serves me no purpose to hold the coins.  If I need them to purchase, I'll buy back at that point.  Sure, I might be able to make a few dollars by holding them, but only at the expense of someone else who lost money in the system.  I keep less than 1.5 BTC on me at all times and sell immediately.

As long as merchants tie bitcoin to USD this is an interim exchange.  If the coins are $15 USD to 1 then a merchant will charge 1BTC for a $15 item.  If the BTC/USD price goes to $30 to 1, then the merchant will charge 0.5.  Either way, the merchant is going to get their USD equivalent.  Buying them at that point isn't going to harm or hurt me, I'm still getting the product for the same value.

At $15/BTC I've collected about $60 more than if I held everything to now.  Don't get me wrong, I have faith in the system.  I just have no faith in what the day traders are going to do to the economy until it disconnects itself from USD.





Phinnaeus Gage
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July 04, 2011, 05:12:20 PM
 #26

"could"

Agreed. Also, time has a value.


Overheard at local restaurant:

Redhead Waitress: How can you afford a car like that on only the tips we make HERE?
Blonde Waitress: Remember last year when that weirdo gave me his phone number and tipped me 20,000 BTC?
Redhead Waitress: Don't tell me you spent it on that car!
Blonde Waitress: Do I look stupid? I invested the rest in the Bitcoin exchange that everyone's been takin' 'bout the past couple weeks--Mt. Gox.
Redhead Waitress: That's smart. I thought you were goin' to tell me you bought a Bitcoin mining rig.
Blonde Waitress: What? Bitcoins are mined? That means that that weirdo got them for free. What a jerkoff!


adamstgBit
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July 04, 2011, 05:16:23 PM
 #27

I'm holding on to my bitcoins for 35 years its my retirement plan....

zby
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July 04, 2011, 06:14:49 PM
 #28

I've sold because of a few things:

1) Google trends for bitcoin are declining: http://www.google.com/trends?q=bitcoin&ctab=0&geo=all&date=mtd&sort=0
2) With the current price it means we need about $100 000 daily new money inserted into the bicoin economy to stabilize the price - without new people investing in bitcoin this will not happen
3) Media is mostly against bitcoin now - so there will not be many people to try bitcoin now
4) What Ben Laurie wrote is very convincing
5) Lack of instant payments (this can be improved - but this will not be easy)
6) The recent technical failures (and the user interface of TradeHill is a failure too) - decreased my faith in the skills of people running the show

It's possible that I'll buy back when the media is more in favour of bitcoin and I'll let you earn lot's of money, for now I am content with what I've got so far from my investment in March.  But even then I'll probably try to compute some numbers from the Kelly formula to determine how much of this money should I reinvest.

Update: added some more points.
scooter
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July 04, 2011, 06:16:14 PM
 #29

I bought snacks at bitmunchies at 15 because I don't want to wait until it is at 30 to eat some tasty snacks.
TraderTimm
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July 04, 2011, 06:18:03 PM
 #30

I've sold because of a few things:

1) Google trends for bitcoin are declining: http://www.google.com/trends?q=bitcoin&ctab=0&geo=all&date=mtd&sort=0
2) With the current price it means we need about $100 000 daily new money inserted into the bicoin economy to stabilize the price - without new people investing in bitcoin this will not happen
3) Media is mostly against bitcoin now - so there will not be many people to try bitcoin now
4) What Ben Laurie wrote is very convincing

It's possible that I'll buy back when the media is more in favour of bitcoin and I'll let you earn lot's of money, for now I am content with what I've got so far from my investment in March.  But even then I'll probably try to compute some numbers from the Kelly formula to determine how much of this money should I reinvest.

Just as proof that we can take alternate opinions here, I'd like to say I can appreciate your stance - but I disagree with you. At least you took time to document your position, which I respect, instead of the usual doomsday claptrap we have on this forum.


fortitudinem multis - catenum regit omnia
error
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July 04, 2011, 06:58:28 PM
 #31

I'm holding Bitcoins right now; the price is much, much too low to seriously consider selling.

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phenom
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July 04, 2011, 07:06:29 PM
 #32

What makes you think it'll ever go back up to 30 again? This is the reason why people sell, because they have no idea. You're dreaming if you think it'll rise back up to 30 any time soon.

JBDive
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July 04, 2011, 07:07:16 PM
 #33

Come on $12 Wink
Stephen Gornick
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July 04, 2011, 10:01:16 PM
 #34

4) What Ben Laurie wrote is very convincing

You can't be serious.  Care to share any argument he's made against bitcoin that you believe has merit? (other than "geez, folks -- bitcoin sure uses a lot of electricity")?

Stephen Gornick
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July 04, 2011, 10:14:54 PM
 #35

I'm just trying to understand the mentality.

Because they have no idea the amount of bitcoin-related awesomeness being rolled out over the next few weeks?

imperi
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July 04, 2011, 10:20:15 PM
 #36

I'm just trying to understand the mentality.

Because they have no idea the amount of bitcoin-related awesomeness being rolled out over the next few weeks?

It seems like some traders are acting like frightened children, selling only because other people are.
JBDive
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July 04, 2011, 10:36:54 PM
 #37

MtGox is still screwing up trades. Just saw one go through at 13.2 followed by 13.70, delayed in one thing but geeze what a spread.
imperi
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July 04, 2011, 10:39:00 PM
 #38

MtGox is still screwing up trades. Just saw one go through at 13.2 followed by 13.70, delayed in one thing but geeze what a spread.

Quote
Jul 4, 2011, 22:34:50   13.70910   1.00   
Jul 4, 2011, 22:34:44   13.70910   6.00   
Jul 4, 2011, 22:34:34   13.70911   4.19   
Jul 4, 2011, 22:34:32   13.73669   0.03   
Jul 4, 2011, 22:33:58   13.70911   0.80   

Hmm...
JBDive
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July 04, 2011, 10:41:53 PM
 #39

MtGox is still screwing up trades. Just saw one go through at 13.2 followed by 13.70, delayed in one thing but geeze what a spread.

Quote
Jul 4, 2011, 22:34:50   13.70910   1.00   
Jul 4, 2011, 22:34:44   13.70910   6.00   
Jul 4, 2011, 22:34:34   13.70911   4.19   
Jul 4, 2011, 22:34:32   13.73669   0.03   
Jul 4, 2011, 22:33:58   13.70911   0.80   

Hmm...

Just going by what I saw on my screen as I was trying to put in an order.
Rob P.
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July 05, 2011, 12:32:53 PM
 #40

The Mt Gox disaster may have been the mortal blow to bitcoin with regard to confidence.   
The bad publicity can be deadly for a new currency.
If so, we know to blame the stupid stupid people behind Mt Gox, and their stupid security, and stupid greedy financial audit of stupidity.

I know people who bought when the price was $ 27 ore even $ 31, so they've lost a lot of money, and do not dare buy more right now, although the price is good compared to when they bought the first time.

Then they were only in it to make a quick buck.  If they bought at $27 or $31, they're insane not to buy an equal amount at $15.  That would make their average price $21 or $23 (respectively).  It's called averaging down.  Right now they have to wait for the price to go to $27+ to break even.  By buying further into the market, they only have to see the price rise to $21+ and then they can get back out.

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