Bitcoin Mining farm with USD 50000

[Phycodurus]

Hey there,

Flaws:
1. The equipment doesn't exist, no one has ever seen evidence that it is real, and there is a very large possibility you will get nothing for your money.  What is the ROI for that?
2. If you do get it, it will be many months from now.  Difficulty will definitely be vastly higher so your earnings will be a fraction of what you estimate.
3. Price can go down in the face of rising difficulty, it has happened many times before.  Look at long term difficulty charts.  Difficulty ALWAYS go up.  Price can and does go down for years at a time.

1. OK, then we'll just get Antminer S9s, current price is $2,725 and they'll be delivered in February. Once in the EU, they'll retail for around $4,000, that's a 150% ROI just on the hardware + all what you can get mining.
2 & 3. That's my real concern, the true profits of bitcoin mining at this stage. Right now you recover the cost of the machines by mining for ~1.5 months, but it's going downhill very fast. If I receive the machines in February, will it take me 4 or 6 months to recover the cost by then, or 3 years? (I don't know how difficult will mining be in April/May/etc.). Anything less than a year it's good, since the machines can go for 1.5+ years working 24/7 afaik. That means substantial profit. Therefore, how is this not a good investment?

Mining is a bet AGAINST difficulty increase...  Based on current coin price and supply of equipment that is not
a bet many folks will win
Back to the days when pre-orders are the fucking norm.  I'll never understand how so many people are happy to give interest free loans to their competition for magic money machines.  Whats even funnier as you point out is that in so many cases buying and holding is a vastly better investment especially when you actually think about the risk/reward ratio!
Mining is a bet AGAINST difficulty increase...  Based on current coin price and supply of equipment that is not
a bet many folks will win.
Welcome back all investomers you are the wet dream of your competition!

By joining a mining pool, mining profits are proportional to the number of machines you've got. Expenses (machine cost, energy consumption) are also proportional. If mining is still profitable for someone with 1,000 machines, it's also profitable for someone who owns just one.

And, if mining isn't going to be profitable, does this mean all these manufacturers are cashing out on these orders and then stop their business? And that all the buyers and everyone with thousands of bitcoin mining-specific equipment will have their millionaire investments rendered useless?

Cheers

[Flying Hellfish]

Hey there,

Flaws:
1. The equipment doesn't exist, no one has ever seen evidence that it is real, and there is a very large possibility you will get nothing for your money.  What is the ROI for that?
2. If you do get it, it will be many months from now.  Difficulty will definitely be vastly higher so your earnings will be a fraction of what you estimate.
3. Price can go down in the face of rising difficulty, it has happened many times before.  Look at long term difficulty charts.  Difficulty ALWAYS go up.  Price can and does go down for years at a time.

1. OK, then we'll just get Antminer S9s, current price is $2,725 and they'll be delivered in February. Once in the EU, they'll retail for around $4,000, that's a 150% ROI just on the hardware + all what you can get mining.
2 & 3. That's my real concern, the true profits of bitcoin mining at this stage. Right now you recover the cost of the machines by mining for ~1.5 months, but it's going downhill very fast. If I receive the machines in February, will it take me 4 or 6 months to recover the cost by then, or 3 years? (I don't know how difficult will mining be in April/May/etc.). Anything less than a year it's good, since the machines can go for 1.5+ years working 24/7 afaik. That means substantial profit. Therefore, how is this not a good investment?

Mining is a bet AGAINST difficulty increase...  Based on current coin price and supply of equipment that is not
a bet many folks will win
Back to the days when pre-orders are the fucking norm.  I'll never understand how so many people are happy to give interest free loans to their competition for magic money machines.  Whats even funnier as you point out is that in so many cases buying and holding is a vastly better investment especially when you actually think about the risk/reward ratio!
Mining is a bet AGAINST difficulty increase...  Based on current coin price and supply of equipment that is not
a bet many folks will win.
Welcome back all investomers you are the wet dream of your competition!

By joining a mining pool, mining profits are proportional to the number of machines you've got. Expenses (machine cost, energy consumption) are also proportional. If mining is still profitable for someone with 1,000 machines, it's also profitable for someone who owns just one.

And, if mining isn't going to be profitable, does this mean all these manufacturers are cashing out on these orders and then stop their business? And that all the buyers and everyone with thousands of bitcoin mining-specific equipment will have their millionaire investments rendered useless?

Cheers

Are you a re-seller or miner?

I dunno about re-selling them but 4k when you get them sounds high to me.  But maybe coins will be 40k and people will still pay 4k for a miner.  If coins flat line at 17k or drop and hash rate skyrockets seems unlikely an S9 would fetch 4k.

For every miner you buy the manufacture can use the money to put 2 or 3 or 4 or whatever number more machines online for themselves...  They can also do it now because you gave them the money now and drive up the difficulty with your money while you sit and wait for it to arrive.  I cant imagine that the 10% jumps were seeing are just retails sales of S9's. The batches sell in minutes, so someone is adding a fuck ton of hashpower to the network (lol go figure with 17k coins!!!).

I always looked at mining roi in terms of BTC not fiat.  How many coins could I just buy right this minute with my budget ($1.00 or $1 million) which we can call X.  If after your gear becomes obsolete you have X+ then mining was a good choice.  If you have X- then buying and holding would have yielded more profit!

The manufactures are very good at pricing machines at just the point where only a select few can make X+ a reality.  Remember they have a much better idea of what is coming online then you do.  Hence the recent price hike of the S9's.

With mining you don't have any liquidity, which of course is a risk.

Lots of people (mostly in China) and some in Europe, North America and the rest of the world as well make X+ and will for a long time.  You might be one of them to which I say good luck sir.  As a total side note if you do mine please don't mine on antpool, find a good pool!

Mining was designed as a near zero sum game on purpose and its always working its way towards that (fucking beautiful fucking design if you ask me!).

Anyways hope this helped and good luck!

[Raymond_B]

I'm curious which country you are in. I mean let's say you find a low elec rate and cool temperatures in Iceland. Are you going to move there? Or are you going to pay someone to maintain your hardware? Are you going to compare real estate prices?

I say all of that to illustrate that if you truly have $50,000.00 USD to invest you should look locally, not try to farm it all out long distance. What's your elec rate locally? What is the sq/ft rental price of industrial warehouse space? What are your internet connection costs?

I'll give an example. I want to expand my mining, I found a 20'x50' warehouse grade site for $5.00 sq/ft/yr with a 200 amp service panel. I will need to invest in HVAC (cooling and exhaust), internet connectivity, wiring, security, etc. I am located in the SW United States. So for me electricity is cheap, but I have to deal with very hot summers so cooling will cost quite a bit. The site is only 6 miles from my house, that way **I** can maintain it. Paying someone else's salary will eat away at your profits.

I have not provided you with a solution, but hopefully it gives you some things to think about.

[Entropy-uc]

Back to the days when pre-orders are the fucking norm.  I'll never understand how so many people are happy to give interest free loans to their competition for magic money machines.  Whats even funnier as you point out is that in so many cases buying and holding is a vastly better investment especially when you actually think about the risk/reward ratio!

Mining is a bet AGAINST difficulty increase...  Based on current coin price and supply of equipment that is not
a bet many folks will win.

Welcome back all investomers you are the wet dream of your competition!

It is all coming back around isn't it.  I guess if I was a smart sociopath, I would take a page from gigahash from back then and sell 'mining bonds' equal to 10x my actual mining capacity priced as if they will pay weekly at today's difficulty for the next 20 years.

Who am I kidding?  There are probably 100 ICOs offering exactly that already.

At least this time, I'm smart enough to let the fools lose their money without trying to be a hero and save them from their own stupidity.

[Flying Hellfish]

It is all coming back around isn't it.

Lulz gigahash, that's an oldie, ya it definitely does feel a lot like 2012-13 all over.  Wide eyed newbs throwing money at anyone that mentions a magic money machine!  Cloud mining scams all over the place.  Now all we need is chip sales with integrators taking in millions and then just walking away!  I guess maybe shitcoin ICO's are the new "integrators"!


Fun times.

[Sandal_Hat]

Are u going to move because of the mine?

[bitcoinexplorer]

Are u going to move because of the mine?

Yes or go setup and come back monitor remotely.

[LevanIlashvili]

Georgia (country, not state) is good location

Electricity cost: $0.06 KW/h (in industrial, tax-free zones)

I can provide more details, if you're interested

[bitcoinexplorer]

Georgia (country, not state) is good location

Electricity cost: $0.06 KW/h (in industrial, tax-free zones)

I can provide more details, if you're interested

Yes please provide more details, what are the taxes and custom duties on import of bitcoin miners. thanks

[Raymond_B]

I'd still like to know how you plan on managing this remotely. Or (like I was asking earlier) are you going to relocate? I mean yes, the miners are fairly self sufficient, but what about the mundane things like changing air filters or swapping out a bad patch cable? What if you have to hard reset a miner?

[bitcoinexplorer]

I'd still like to know how you plan on managing this remotely. Or (like I was asking earlier) are you going to relocate? I mean yes, the miners are fairly self sufficient, but what about the mundane things like changing air filters or swapping out a bad patch cable? What if you have to hard reset a miner?

Two options
either i can relocate
or fly when required

[Raymond_B]

Right, but you have to figure this kind of stuff in to your business plan. So if you have a failed component or have to do simple maintenance how fast can you fix it and how expensive will it be to travel? Nothing ever fails in convenient schedules. I am just trying to say you have to monetize every single aspect, because it might simply be cheaper to mine where you are if you have to take travel in to account.

[HighCommander]

Are you a re-seller or miner?

I dunno about re-selling them but 4k when you get them sounds high to me.  But maybe coins will be 40k and people will still pay 4k for a miner.  If coins flat line at 17k or drop and hash rate skyrockets seems unlikely an S9 would fetch 4k.

For every miner you buy the manufacture can use the money to put 2 or 3 or 4 or whatever number more machines online for themselves...  They can also do it now because you gave them the money now and drive up the difficulty with your money while you sit and wait for it to arrive.  I cant imagine that the 10% jumps were seeing are just retails sales of S9's. The batches sell in minutes, so someone is adding a fuck ton of hashpower to the network (lol go figure with 17k coins!!!).

I always looked at mining roi in terms of BTC not fiat.  How many coins could I just buy right this minute with my budget ($1.00 or $1 million) which we can call X.  If after your gear becomes obsolete you have X+ then mining was a good choice.  If you have X- then buying and holding would have yielded more profit!

The manufactures are very good at pricing machines at just the point where only a select few can make X+ a reality.  Remember they have a much better idea of what is coming online then you do.  Hence the recent price hike of the S9's.

With mining you don't have any liquidity, which of course is a risk.

Lots of people (mostly in China) and some in Europe, North America and the rest of the world as well make X+ and will for a long time.  You might be one of them to which I say good luck sir.  As a total side note if you do mine please don't mine on antpool, find a good pool!

Mining was designed as a near zero sum game on purpose and its always working its way towards that (fucking beautiful fucking design if you ask me!).

Anyways hope this helped and good luck!

This is a GREAT, simply GREAT  explanation to all the people who want to buy(invest into) miners while not really knowing what they are doing and what will happen after they do order.

This guy knows the MATH of investing into hardware or coins and shares this knowledge with you people, for free(!). Who has ears - listens, who doesn't well, they are dumb, what else to say.

Quite rare to see a clever person that actually takes his time and writes CLEAR and understandable points HOW TO DO things and helps people do the right choice.

Flying Hellfish, +  

[bitcoinexplorer]

Right, but you have to figure this kind of stuff in to your business plan. So if you have a failed component or have to do simple maintenance how fast can you fix it and how expensive will it be to travel? Nothing ever fails in convenient schedules. I am just trying to say you have to monetize every single aspect, because it might simply be cheaper to mine where you are if you have to take travel in to account.

In my research its rarely the miners have any hardware issue, atleast in first 6 months of operations.

[Raymond_B]

So you really think you're going to stand up a facility and not have to do anything to *any* of the equipment for 6 months? Remember there's more to it than miners. There's everything from ac units, fans, network gear, PDUs, patch cables, the physical building itself, security, wiring, etc, etc.

 I'm sorry you're not being realistic, but I wish you the best of luck!

[bitcoinexplorer]

So you really think you're going to stand up a facility and not have to do anything to *any* of the equipment for 6 months? Remember there's more to it than miners. There's everything from ac units, fans, network gear, PDUs, patch cables, the physical building itself, security, wiring, etc, etc.

 I'm sorry you're not being realistic, but I wish you the best of luck!

That is why i am looking at colocation at data center.

[Raymond_B]

Just be sure to compare the data center overhead to what you might pay locally. I'd rather have my 50k close to me and make less profit than to have it 1/2 way around the world

[bitcoinexplorer]

Just be sure to compare the data center overhead to what you might pay locally. I'd rather have my 50k close to me and make less profit than to have it 1/2 way around the world

Agreed, i am looking at bulk operations.

[barmitzfit]

Hey there Entropy-uc,

Can you back your statements with data?

For a setting of 50 DragonMint 16Ts ($1,710/pc including power source) = $85,500, today's profit is 3.1 monthly BTC according to Antpool: https://www.antpool.com/support.htm?m=calculator

ROI is around 1.5 months after purchase, even considering electricity costs.

Besides, the hardware itself doubles its value nowadays when in stock, so the return on investment is 200% already since the moment you receive the miners.

What's your opinion on these numbers? Do you see any flaw in my reasoning?

The only problem I see is that the difficulty increases every day, and from yesterday to today, according to this very same calculator, profits fell by 15%. I opened a thread about this today.

Flaws:
1. The equipment doesn't exist, no one has ever seen evidence that it is real, and there is a very large possibility you will get nothing for your money.  What is the ROI for that?
2. If you do get it, it will be many months from now.  Difficulty will definitely be vastly higher so your earnings will be a fraction of what you estimate.
3. Price can go down in the face of rising difficulty, it has happened many times before.  Look at long term difficulty charts.  Difficulty ALWAYS go up.  Price can and does go down for years at a time.

I think the biggest issue here is getting the miners now, seems like every mining company is setting a limit to how many someone can purchase. As well as the how quickly they have been selling out - it would seem very competitive and difficult to buy a bulk order of miners. Canaan is doing MOQ of 60 units @ $150k that's way over your budget.