Why bitcoins are dropping, and will continue to do so

[5grainsilver]

 Investors like security and the bitcoin is pretty much the opposite of secure.  They also like secure exchanges and the bitcoin exchanges are pretty shady compared to mainstream exchanges.  That is kind of an understatement really. 
       

Bitcoin investing as secure as your worst security practices. Just like good ol' dollars. If you don't protect your credit and bank cards, someone will clean out your account.

You're only half right about shady exchanges. Turns out its not that difficult to avoid being a MTGOX clone. CAVirtex is a new Canadian exchange that is fully government compliant, professionally run (by actual businessmen) and not shady in the least. The trade volume pegs CAVIRTEX at #4 among all exchanges.

Sorry for being such a buzzkill.

You are way off.

My bank account is insured by the Us government if my bank fails.

My bank reimburses me for fraud.

Heck I even get rebates for using my card to buy things.

If someone rips me off I can charge it back.

Bitcoin offers zero protection.  I keep some money in silver.  At least someone has to come to my house to steal it.  And I can still access it during a power outage. 

Bitcoin is a cool idea but has far too many flaws to be anything more than a cool payment method.

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[piramida]

how is bitcoin different from silver? when you give your silver to someone, it's gone. no proof, no chargeback. just like bitcoin. your argument was?

[5grainsilver]

how is bitcoin different from silver? when you give your silver to someone, it's gone. no proof, no chargeback. just like bitcoin. your argument was?

Not really.  Silver can't be hacked or lost due to tech problems or power outages.  It has real world uses that guarantee it will always hold some value.  It doesn't depend on a computer for it to exist.

[dacoinminster]

Here's a cartoon showing what is going on:



Just replace "a stock" with "bitcoins".

[Ratman2050]

how is bitcoin different from silver? when you give your silver to someone, it's gone. no proof, no chargeback. just like bitcoin. your argument was?

Not really.  Silver can't be hacked or lost due to tech problems or power outages.  It has real world uses that guarantee it will always hold some value.  It doesn't depend on a computer for it to exist.

No one can predict the future with 100% certainty, but the probability of the internet disappearing is slim to none. In most developed countries power outages are rare. That's what laptops and phones are for. Not only that, but even if something like a hurricane took out an entire state, the rest of the world would be fine.

[kjj]

how is bitcoin different from silver? when you give your silver to someone, it's gone. no proof, no chargeback. just like bitcoin. your argument was?

Not really.  Silver can't be hacked or lost due to tech problems or power outages.  It has real world uses that guarantee it will always hold some value.  It doesn't depend on a computer for it to exist.

No one can predict the future with 100% certainty, but the probability of the internet disappearing is slim to none. In most developed countries power outages are rare. That's what laptops and phones are for. Not only that, but even if something like a hurricane took out an entire state, the rest of the world would be fine.

If you think that the internet might go away some day, make sure that you are spending more money on ammo than on silver.

[piramida]

And when the internet will be gone and the world will collapse into chaos, your precious silver bars would be worth next to nothing. As for stealing, hacking a computer or breaking into the house is about the same. Easier to protect from a hacking attempt, for me, than from a burglar - you can't unplug your house as you can your BTC wallet.

[cocodapuf]

how is bitcoin different from silver? when you give your silver to someone, it's gone. no proof, no chargeback. just like bitcoin. your argument was?

Not really.  Silver can't be hacked or lost due to tech problems or power outages.  It has real world uses that guarantee it will always hold some value.  It doesn't depend on a computer for it to exist.

Whoa, silver can't be hacked? If you were to keep your hard earned silver in your underwear drawer and then keep your back door unlocked, what's stopping someone from walking in and grabbing it.   Likewise, if you leave your wallet in your windows user folder, unencrypted, with your firewall down, what's stopping someone?

People, this is digital cash... only people with way too much money actually carry 5 grand in their wallet, put that stuff in the bank man.   For your own sake try to carry under $100 in your everyday wallet (digital or otherwise).  Unless you can get a 3rd party to secure your coin for you, managing a BTC savings account on your own is a lot like keeping a briefcase full of money; yes it certainly does carry with it serious security concerns.

[Nagle]

silver can't be hacked?

Oh? See Silver Thursday.

[foggyb]

My bank account is insured by the Us government if my bank fails.

My bank reimburses me for fraud.

Heck I even get rebates for using my card to buy things.

If someone rips me off I can charge it back.

What do all these services have in common?

You have to pay into the system (and pay dearly i might add) to have these privileges Its not a freebie.

[David M]

Any merchant who accepts Bitcoins needs to cash out really fast. We're seeing 25% changes in a day, and 10% changes in 10 minutes.  By the time a Bitcoin transaction is confirmed, it may have lost 10% of its value. You can't run a business on that.

Someone needs to learn about derivatives.

Example:

Shop A pays $US to suppliers with 30 day terms.
Shop A buys a Put expiring as close to the term as possible at the current market rate (X)
Shop A accepts Bitcoins.

Scenario 1:  Bitcoin rises in value. -> Shop A lets the Put expire or sells it.
Scenario 2:  Bitcoin falls in value. -> Shop A takes the Put to delivery and is guaranteed price X

The maximum cost to Shop A is the price of the Put regardless of price movement.

[Nagle]

Any merchant who accepts Bitcoins needs to cash out really fast. We're seeing 25% changes in a day, and 10% changes in 10 minutes.  By the time a Bitcoin transaction is confirmed, it may have lost 10% of its value. You can't run a business on that.

Someone needs to learn about derivatives.

Derivatives require a legal system that forces people to pay their debts and counter-parties strong enough to pay them.

[David M]

Derivatives require a legal system that forces people to pay their debts and counter-parties strong enough to pay them.

From the Bitoption FAQ

"Is this Escrowed trading? YES. You are guaranteed to be able to execute once you've purchased a contract."

That's good enough for me.

[molecular]

I must object. Hight supply is a problem if you want the price not to drop (which is implied by OP). A lot of miners decided to join when the price was at $30. They mostly joined for a quick buck, not because of bitcoin and it's features (see troll post above). These people have to throw their mined coins to the market, to recoup their investment and pay utility bills.

But people are continuing to mine, the network hasn't stopped running because a few decided to stop.  Even after the cap is hit, transaction fees will get people to keep mining.

I didn't say anyone stopped mining. Mining is still profitable, even at an exchange rate of $5. I said many miners must sell their mined coins.

Just 3-4 months ago, one could mine 20 BTC per day with a €700 EUR machine. You need something like 20 GHash/s for that nowadays, that'll cost you $10.000, and if you look in this thread (watch out, hardware/cable porn): http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=7216.msg321184#msg321184, you can see that people are doing this.

I don't think they make such an investment with some "spare fiat money" they have laying around and then just keep the coins, they sell them.

This must be a misunderstanding, I'm not saying anything against bitcoin, and I never said it would fail.

Yes, miners sell coins.  What is your point?  How is this a mark against Bitcoins at all?

Of course miners sell coins, if they sell more, the price will fall: normal. Not a mark against bitcoin.

Oh no, gold miners sell gold!!!  Gold will fail!!

Honestly, what point are you trying to make?

My point was to object to your saying that (high) supply is not a problem (for the bitcoin exchange rate, I assumed), which I objected to, because high supply will lower the price. Maybe I misunderstood and you meant supply is not a problem (for bitcoin itself)? If so: I agree.

[molecular]

Any merchant who accepts Bitcoins needs to cash out really fast. We're seeing 25% changes in a day, and 10% changes in 10 minutes.  By the time a Bitcoin transaction is confirmed, it may have lost 10% of its value. You can't run a business on that.

Calculate with +3% lower rate, then, right after payment, automatically try to cash in the money at mtgox. If success: all is good, ship order, if unsuccessfull: tell user you can't sell at that price any more, offer new price or to abort order or return the BTC.

[molecular]

2.  To use as a transactional currency.  This is the real appeal of the bitcoin.  But there is no reason for someone to convert dollars to bitcoins and buy something unless it is illegal.  It is inconvenient and provides zero protection against theft or fraud. 

You've clearly never purchased anything using bitcoins.  It beats the crap out of paypal or credit card purchases in the convenience department.

Yes but it offers zero protection against scam sellers.  And paypal is super convenient for the buyer, just sucks for the seller.

That's another HUGE issue.  If I pay someone in Bitcoins, I have zero recourse once they're sent.  I can't even prove I sent the money to the seller because it's all anonymous.

If you can prove the merchant showed you a certain address, you can easily prove you sent money to that address by showing the transaction id.

The first part might be a problem, though, maybe a good merchant should sign a bill including the payment address so customers have proof?

[5grainsilver]

Derivatives require a legal system that forces people to pay their debts and counter-parties strong enough to pay them.

From the Bitoption FAQ

"Is this Escrowed trading? YES. You are guaranteed to be able to execute once you've purchased a contract."

That's good enough for me.

Umm...I was reading the bitoption status thread earlier and it sounds like the owner has stopped responding, people are owed money etc. 

A guarantee is only as good as the person making it.  And an escrow is only worthwhile if it is by a trusted and reliable third party. 

[AyeYo]

My bank account is insured by the Us government if my bank fails.

My bank reimburses me for fraud.

Heck I even get rebates for using my card to buy things.

If someone rips me off I can charge it back.

What do all these services have in common?

You have to pay into the system (and pay dearly i might add) to have these privileges Its not a freebie.

Doesn't cost me a cent to have those guarantees from the bank and CC companies.  It costs only a tiny fraction of my tax money to have the FDIC guarantee from the government, money I'll be paying no matter what anyway.

The protection are worth every penny, as people getting raped out of their Bitcoins by scammers and shady exchanges are finding out.

[Oldminer]

morning all,

I hope everyone's nice and relaxed and lubed up for today (in particular those of you with them shiny bitcoins still in your pockets...LOL)

[hugolp]

morning all,

I hope everyone's nice and relaxed and lubed up for today (in particular those of you with them shiny bitcoins still in your pockets...LOL)

Thank you. I have my lube in hand in case a girlfriend comes around. My bitcoins are well too. I dont care much about their price in dollars at this moment. But you boys have fun with the intraday.