ElectricMucus
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Marketing manager - GO MP
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August 02, 2013, 09:03:04 AM |
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From the look of the spread out Askwall on btc-e I think we will have a new high today.
We really need a graph btw.
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Impaler
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CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!
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August 03, 2013, 06:48:28 AM |
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The gap makes sense;
The Gox price is artificially high because they cannot process withdrawals in a timely manner (up to 3 months in many cases).
As many people need funds that are in their account or are afraid the cumulative effect of slow withdrawals and many other problems Gox have had recently could spell the end for Gox, they are forced to transfer their Fiat into Bitcoin creating + rise in value on the exchange. The opposite effect (- effect) happens on all other exchange as the coins flow into them for sale.
There's no money to be made from arbitrage the prices aren't random on each exchange it's just a reflection of the above. If you monitor the difference in price between say btc-e and bitstamp there's a pretty consistent $1 diff or 1/88= 1%.
The 1% difference on these exchanges possibly reflects the higher cost (1%) of depositing money onto Btc-e
Gox customer service is worryingly don't give a fuckish with a bit of sarcastic "Dear valued customer" thrown in for spitish reasons (possibly staff know they're soon to be unemployed and don't like taking shit from pricks like me!!). I really wouldn't risk your money trying to Arb from exchanges to Gox you stand to make 5-10% as a one off if they don't go out of business and they get their problems sorted. I'd say there's a 25% if you're going to leave money there over the next 3 months you could lose it all.
I think people have the situation backwards. The BTC purchases on Gox are clearly not being dumped on other exchanges as that would have caused prices to plummet on these small exchanges which they are not. So I think thouse holding USD on Gox are not particularly trying to flee Gox, they still on average wish to convert USD to BTC just like they always have. The rise in price is being driven on Gox is driven by BTC miners not offering a supply of new coins to Gox, as the miner rightly concludes if they can not get the resulting USD in 3 months anyways, why not just wait until then to sell when the price might be higher. This is why we have seen a drop in the BTC depth on Gox decline by about half the volume of the large purchasing spikes. I believe after a whale buys a large sum of coins he stimulates smaller day trader to do about an equal volume of rapid back and forth trading, all the coins of which are just being re offered at new prices, so total depth is unaffected by these trades, but volume is increased. |
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myself (OP)
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Activity: 938
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chaos is fun...…damental :)
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August 12, 2013, 10:08:08 PM |
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Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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Tzupy
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August 12, 2013, 10:20:57 PM |
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BTC from Fort Gox have been dumped on other exchanges, but not enough to explain the missing BTC on Gox.
This (mini?) rally came too soon for me, I just initiated today another euro deposit to Bitstamp, I just hope to catch the next valley with it.
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Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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myself (OP)
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Activity: 938
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chaos is fun...…damental :)
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August 12, 2013, 10:33:48 PM |
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I just initiated today another euro deposit to Bitstamp, I just hope to catch the next valley with it.
read this because some users did have some problems https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=270716.0 |
Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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Chainsaw
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August 13, 2013, 02:13:55 AM |
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I'm still long Bitcoin, just not MtGox.
So I've shifted from 100% MtGox to about 50% physical, 45% wallet, 5% gox.
Not sure what percentage of gox-withdrawers are like me, but this could account for decreased volume without depressed prices.
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Chainsaw
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August 13, 2013, 04:53:25 AM |
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When I got in, they were at $5, so the net risk didn't really justify diversifying.
As value went up, I adjusted a little.
As Mt. Gox's reliability (subjectively speaking of course) decreased, I adjusted a lot.
Eyes wide open, money in an exchange is at increased risk of loss. That risk is part of the equation one accepts when trading.
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True___Blue
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August 13, 2013, 11:03:31 AM |
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So I've shifted from 100% MtGox to about 50% physical, 45% wallet, 5% gox.
It shocks someone like me that anyone would store any large percentage of their Bitcoin holdings with a 3rd party, especially looking at the short history of Bitcoin. +1 Bitfloor just paid me back yesterday, and luckily, I was able to withdrawal as soon as news hit about bitcoin24 and did not loose any money. I try to never keep more than a few BTC in a trading site. |
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mp420
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August 13, 2013, 11:33:50 AM |
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Any explanation for the high EUR price at bitcoin.de? It's only a couple of euros below Gox's EUR price, while Gox's EUR price seems to reflect EUR/USD exchange rate and GoxUSD price. Isn't there an arbitrage opportunity between bitcoin.de and Bitstamp? Buy at Bitstamp, sell at btcde, rinse, repeat? Of course the depth at btcDE is not that great, but still?
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ElectricMucus
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Activity: 1666
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Marketing manager - GO MP
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August 13, 2013, 07:29:09 PM |
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Trading on btc-e has been depressing lately. Nobody wants to get in at 95... I get the feeling this will last till either gox & bitstamp break the previous resistance or it doesn't even get that far and it plummets right after the top without the chance to unload.
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Its About Sharing
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Activity: 1442
Merit: 1000
Antifragile
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August 13, 2013, 08:25:40 PM |
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Any explanation for the high EUR price at bitcoin.de? It's only a couple of euros below Gox's EUR price, while Gox's EUR price seems to reflect EUR/USD exchange rate and GoxUSD price. Isn't there an arbitrage opportunity between bitcoin.de and Bitstamp? Buy at Bitstamp, sell at btcde, rinse, repeat? Of course the depth at btcDE is not that great, but still?
As long as their new bank is not tied into trading, it still takes 2-3 days for a bank transfer to clear (and for you to buy/sell coins). (IF you didn't know, right now trades are account to account, so you have to wait for funds to clear.) Also, the volume there is quite low, relatively. But, there is an opportunity, it is just that your money is tied up for 3 days or so at Bitcoin.de, then you need another 3 days or so to get it back to Stamp. So, you are talking a week for 10%, which is doable, but you might miss a move. Gox has the volume and seems like the best place to trade, if you are good. |
BTC = Black Swan.
BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
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joesmoe2012
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August 14, 2013, 11:26:38 AM |
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Any explanation for the high EUR price at bitcoin.de? It's only a couple of euros below Gox's EUR price, while Gox's EUR price seems to reflect EUR/USD exchange rate and GoxUSD price. Isn't there an arbitrage opportunity between bitcoin.de and Bitstamp? Buy at Bitstamp, sell at btcde, rinse, repeat? Of course the depth at btcDE is not that great, but still?
They no longer allow americans on their exchange (if you have a US address, your trading is restricted). They no longer allow non-german EU residents to trade over 2500 EUR per calendar year (because after 2500 EUR they have to fully verify you and they can only do this currently in germany). As such there's alot less of the volume sellers who normally buy on different exchanges just to resell on bitcoin.de, but still lots of small volume buyers who are driving the price up (because they aren't effected by the inability to transact over 2500 EUR a year). I would imagine the volume on bitcoin.de is significantly down as well since the Fidor bank announcement. |
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Its About Sharing
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Antifragile
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August 14, 2013, 12:05:49 PM |
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Any explanation for the high EUR price at bitcoin.de? It's only a couple of euros below Gox's EUR price, while Gox's EUR price seems to reflect EUR/USD exchange rate and GoxUSD price. Isn't there an arbitrage opportunity between bitcoin.de and Bitstamp? Buy at Bitstamp, sell at btcde, rinse, repeat? Of course the depth at btcDE is not that great, but still?
They no longer allow americans on their exchange (if you have a US address, your trading is restricted). They no longer allow non-german EU residents to trade over 2500 EUR per calendar year (because after 2500 EUR they have to fully verify you and they can only do this currently in germany). As such there's alot less of the volume sellers who normally buy on different exchanges just to resell on bitcoin.de, but still lots of small volume buyers who are driving the price up (because they aren't effected by the inability to transact over 2500 EUR a year). I would imagine the volume on bitcoin.de is significantly down as well since the Fidor bank announcement. Yes, I emailed them about the American thing. I have had an account for a while now and once I updated things and said I was a US Citizen, things were suspended. I emailed them and asked about when they would allow me to trade again. They said maybe in 2 weeks. But I noticed the caps on trades. I don't get it. I have a residency permit in Germany, so I don't want bad treatment regarding this. I would pay the premium price there (Gox like) as I trust the German banks more than the Slovanian (Bitstamp) banks. Well, it looks like bitcoin.de might have just cut off their nose to spite their face and they are going to have to adjust their policy as they won't generate enough money.  |
BTC = Black Swan.
BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
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myself (OP)
Legendary
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Activity: 938
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chaos is fun...…damental :)
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August 14, 2013, 04:06:45 PM |
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@Its About Sharing your obligation of being US citizen apply world wide not just if u are in US
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Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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jubalix
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August 14, 2013, 10:07:29 PM |
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I cant quite get over gox said 2 week until withdrawal will be fixed, no usd withdrawals, but hey money can still come in as fast you want.
two weeks go and then what, essentially perma withdrawal problems
How hard can this be? you would get a new bank or system that could cope.
One wonders at how long this can keep up. Gox must either solve the problem, or its over. You have to start thinking about fractional reserve going on, for both USD and BTC.
Go long, and by long I mean 3 years+. Ride this all out.
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ArticMine
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Monero Core Team
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August 15, 2013, 12:55:54 AM |
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Any explanation for the high EUR price at bitcoin.de? It's only a couple of euros below Gox's EUR price, while Gox's EUR price seems to reflect EUR/USD exchange rate and GoxUSD price. Isn't there an arbitrage opportunity between bitcoin.de and Bitstamp? Buy at Bitstamp, sell at btcde, rinse, repeat? Of course the depth at btcDE is not that great, but still?
They no longer allow americans on their exchange (if you have a US address, your trading is restricted). They no longer allow non-german EU residents to trade over 2500 EUR per calendar year (because after 2500 EUR they have to fully verify you and they can only do this currently in germany). As such there's alot less of the volume sellers who normally buy on different exchanges just to resell on bitcoin.de, but still lots of small volume buyers who are driving the price up (because they aren't effected by the inability to transact over 2500 EUR a year). I would imagine the volume on bitcoin.de is significantly down as well since the Fidor bank announcement. Yes, I emailed them about the American thing. I have had an account for a while now and once I updated things and said I was a US Citizen, things were suspended. I emailed them and asked about when they would allow me to trade again. They said maybe in 2 weeks. But I noticed the caps on trades. I don't get it. I have a residency permit in Germany, so I don't want bad treatment regarding this. I would pay the premium price there (Gox like) as I trust the German banks more than the Slovanian (Bitstamp) banks. Well, it looks like bitcoin.de might have just cut off their nose to spite their face and they are going to have to adjust their policy as they won't generate enough money. Actually you can thank the US Government for this. It makes a lot of financial sense for many financial institutions outside the United States to refuse to do business with US Citizens or residents. The reason FATCA and the compliance costs it imposes on those institutions. I would go as far as saying that I would not be surprised if MTGox ends up "solving" its withdrawal problems by simply refusing to do business with US Citizens or residents. The problem is far wider than Bitcoin. The bottom line here is that the US government has effectively turned ex-pat US Citizens into financial pariahs all over the world. |
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Its About Sharing
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Antifragile
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August 15, 2013, 11:53:40 AM |
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Thanks for the info guys. I wasn't aware of FATCA. I have an unlimited German residency permit and live in Germany now but am still a US citizen. I do not report/file taxes in America and have heard that is fine.
I don't want to give up my citizenship, that has never entered my mind. I love the country, but the government (or is it corporations?) are just destroying what it once stood for.
I understand the US Government is ostracizing it's own citizens both in and out of the country with it's near totalitarian laws. Man, what has happened to this country?
I'm going through the Gox procedure as a backup account. Any recommendations for others, especially considering I'm in Europe? I know of Stamp. If too off topic, just a link please.
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BTC = Black Swan.
BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
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myself (OP)
Legendary
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Activity: 938
Merit: 1000
chaos is fun...…damental :)
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August 15, 2013, 03:14:32 PM |
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Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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