But the "chart analysis" crap,....is idiotic,
Your view of something you don't
understand is to call it idiotic. I wouldn't trust your judgement on anything - including the prospects of LabCoin.
Then don't. I'm not interested in helping idiots make money.
I don't know much about Voodoo or Astrology or tea-leave reading but I don't exactly feel like I
need to know much about it to write them off. I know enough about the ludicrously named "technical analysis" (which is totally non-technical and barely 'analysis') to know it's total B.S.
Agree.
And just to note: While I did give a basic prediction - that both ActM
and Labcoin are way undervalued (which stuartuk should actually
like) - if you read closely you can see that I was
not giving specific price guidance.
Rather I was explaining the
mathematical formula you would use if you had p.d.f (as in,
probability density function, not a
portable document format file) for various possible future hashrates (both for labcoin and the overall network)
I specifically said I was giving a
simplified example, with a very simple PDF (only three possibilities, a total scam or failure with 0% of the network, and two non-scam possibility where they get either 1 or 5% of the network, and if they are valued the same way ASICMiner is)
The thing to understand is that
I was giving the math. Anyone can take that math and plug in
their own estimates for the likelihood of various possible network percentages and their likelihood of it being a scam.
And here's the thing about math. Math is universal, it's the same for everyone. Math is not an opinion and it's either wrong or right. I gave multiple examples, including ones where the stock is actually over-valued, as well as examples where the expected prices is exactly what it currently is. (Because, unlike SHA-256, these are not one-way functions, and you can reverse them
)
If the math is wrong, then anyone should be able to point out the error and it will be obvious to all. Including me. Just point out the error.
If you disagree with the estimates I've entered, that's totally fine. As I said at no point did I say that I was sure those values were right, those are just simple examples. And I gave examples for what I thought were reasonable good and bad scenarios, as well as examples where the price was overvalued, or valued exactly correctly.
I wasn't trying to say my oppinoin was correct, or where the stock was headed, I was simply trying to illustrate how people could figure it out on their own, using simple grade-school arithmetic (using a
discretized versions of formulas that would involve multiple integrals over topological surfaces in vector spaces in the 'full' continuous versions
)
I don't have a problem if people don't trust my estimates -- because they're not even estimates. They're just examples of formulas that anyone can use on their own with their own assumptions to see what the price should be.
If people want to ignore that because of my views about "chartological voodoo" they are certainly free to do so.
And anyway, I think both Labcoin and ActM are undervalued so I don't really see why ActM fanboys would even have a problem with it...
What is the deal with every time I place a sell order.. an identical sell order is created .0001 less then mine. It appears this is happening to everyone. If you look at the sell list there are 10 sells that are exactly duplicated in amount .0001 less. I know usually it does it for 1 sell.. but the 10 lowest? Someone is looking to unload without crashing the market. I'm a professional poker player and the way these guys have conducted business such as updates anytime the price is dropping, makes me call major bluff. Especially when they come out and add extra shit like bloomberg and cnn want interviews and they are going to have way more hashing power online then expected when they haven't even put 1 th up. LOL.. give me a break.. but thanks for the profits!
I was only planning on selling half of my position but let it all go, this was a snap fold (or call I guess if you talking about bluffing).
Does anyone have an explanation why the closest to the money sells are being replicated and underbid by .0001? Gonna be pretty hard to rise in price like that!
First of all, whenever I place an order, I place for 0.0001 less then whatever order is about the same size as mine. I don't pay too much attention to orders in the 10, 20 shares. We're talking about $1 or $2 there. At that point, who cares?
Second of all, there are definitely bots in play. I've noticed you can get a bot to push up it's price until it reaches a threshold where it will just pull it's order. I think the way they work is that the owner will enter a 'maximum' price they're willing to pay, and the bot will adjust the price until it hits that max price, so that they can buy for as low as possible.
In some cases I'll push a bot's price up to it's max, then fill it's order, just to fuck with the owner
I've thought about writing a bot-fucking-with bot but as I said, the volume on these markets is so low there's just not much point in putting in the effort - you just won't make much money.
In my case, the bids are mostly too small for me to bother worrying about. If someone is going to buy or sell enough for me to have my order filled, they'll eat through the bot's bid fairly quickly.
(And if you think this is unfair - remember it's not poker. In the "real world" probably the vast majority of trades are executed by "High-frequency trading" or "Blackbox" systems - basically bots coded by the banks, and collocated right next at the exchanges in order to execute trades as quickly as possible)
