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Author Topic: Realistic Bitcoin Mining Calculator  (Read 10799 times)
d9000
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July 26, 2011, 11:12:44 AM
 #21

Thanks for the link Yeti, and I think you also answered my next question - Is the 1.45 example value for growth (in percent) realistic based on current trends, or is it a very conservative/pessimistic prediction?

Would following the 3%-5% difficulty increases mean we put in something more along the lines of 1.04%?


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Yeti
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July 26, 2011, 02:26:13 PM
 #22

You cannot realistically determine any future development of the difficulty as it's highly correlated to the price (higher prices make it more feasible to mine so more people will join) and to the overall acceptance of Bitcoin.

Afair, 1.45 was the latest difficulty change right around the time this calculator came out. Part of the reason for this was most likely that you can more or less ignore 5% change in difficulty as it will affect you only slightly in the short term. But 50% difficulty increase shocked some people and invalidated profitability calculations done based on old difficulties and an estimated low to moderate increase.

Since only one difficulty change so far has been negative, I think it's reasonable to assume an overall modest climb. As I said, do more than one scenario, 1%, 5%, 10%, 20% constant rise in difficulty (which would result in 1.01, 1.05, 1.1, 1.2 as the input) and see where that would take you, then watch reality follow one or the other curve.


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July 26, 2011, 05:32:04 PM
 #23

thanks for the calculator....it made me realize that i would not be makin much money
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July 26, 2011, 08:16:54 PM
 #24

thank you for sharing. I got sad after i saw i wouldnt make $$
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July 30, 2011, 10:57:16 AM
 #25

My favorite simple bitcoin calc is this: http://bitcoin.web-share.nl/#

Why? I can just enter an number and select k M G etc... Wink really nice feature actually.

 

While reading what I wrote, use the most friendliest and relaxing voice in your head.
BTW, Things in BTC bubble universes are getting ugly....
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July 30, 2011, 01:48:54 PM
 #26

I think this calculator might be off on it's math.  If you put in 1.15 as the growth rate, you get to the monthly increase in difficulty in 2 increases, but this is 28*.85 days, right?  There should have been a third difficulty increase for the last part of the first month.

Difficulty Start => 1690895.8030524
Growth => 1.15

2236209 = 1.15 * 1.15 * 1690895.8030524, but this is only 23.8 days.  Is my math off?

1   28.62   400.68   2236209.69954
2   20.37   285.18   3400995.42678
3   14.23   199.22   4497816.45192
4   10.13   141.82   6840616.59631
5   7.07   98.98   9046715.44863
6   5.04   70.56   13758923.3579
7   3.52   49.28   18196176.1409
8   2.5   35   27674109.3882
9   1.75   24.5   36599009.6659
10   1.24   17.36   55662518.8257
11   0.87   12.18   73613681.147
12   0.62   8.68   111957207.314
     
alemaaltevinden
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July 30, 2011, 04:34:14 PM
 #27

And the fees?

I'm going to be the first worldleader, be prepared >Smiley
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July 30, 2011, 08:58:46 PM
 #28

Newcomers need to see this calculator before they get into bitcoin mining for profit!
Thanks for a closer, more realistic outcome to mining!

5 posts. lol F.U.D

Amazing how many people sign up JUST to tell others NOT to mine. Get a life.
Yeti
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July 31, 2011, 11:22:04 AM
 #29

I think this calculator might be off on it's math.  If you put in 1.15 as the growth rate, you get to the monthly increase in difficulty in 2 increases, but this is 28*.85 days, right?  There should have been a third difficulty increase for the last part of the first month.

Yup, he explicitly states that he calculates difficulty changes every 14 days and not depending on the hashrate. So it's even a bit worse than predicted, although I'm still not convinced that difficulty will increase constantly. It's more like a curve that gets shallower and steeper every now and then.

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mushy99999
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July 31, 2011, 05:28:08 PM
 #30

Newcomers need to see this calculator before they get into bitcoin mining for profit!
Thanks for a closer, more realistic outcome to mining!

5 posts. lol F.U.D

Amazing how many people sign up JUST to tell others NOT to mine. Get a life.

Amazing how many people are on here just to troll..

Did I ever suggest that newcomers shouldn't mine?
Oh, that's right, I didn't.

Oh really?? What were you suggesting then? You're full of it. If you're suggesting that you weren't trying to put newcomers off then what exactly were you suggesting? And how am I trolling? As I said earlier, get a life.
mushy99999
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July 31, 2011, 07:12:14 PM
 #31

Newcomers need to see this calculator before they get into bitcoin mining for profit!
Thanks for a closer, more realistic outcome to mining!

5 posts. lol F.U.D

Amazing how many people sign up JUST to tell others NOT to mine. Get a life.

Amazing how many people are on here just to troll..

Did I ever suggest that newcomers shouldn't mine?
Oh, that's right, I didn't.

Oh really?? What were you suggesting then? You're full of it. If you're suggesting that you weren't trying to put newcomers off then what exactly were you suggesting? And how am I trolling? As I said earlier, get a life.

I was suggesting exactly what I said, that newcomers should check out this more realistic calculator before they get into bitcoin mining for profit.
You're trolling my post so it seems you need to get a life at a much more significant rate than I do  Roll Eyes

So why are you bolding "for profit". I am still mining and making quite a LOT of profit thankyou. YOU are the troll. Do some proper research before making such a "bold" statement. Idiot.
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July 31, 2011, 07:43:23 PM
 #32

nice find.

Always up for donations =D Hiiipower!
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makomk
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August 02, 2011, 04:55:59 PM
 #33

So why are you bolding "for profit". I am still mining and making quite a LOT of profit thankyou. YOU are the troll. Do some proper research before making such a "bold" statement. Idiot.
I'm guessing you've already paid off the cost of your hardware. If you've done that, or you're not buying hardware specifically for mining, it should work out to be profitable for users with decent ATI cards.

Quad XC6SLX150 Board: 860 MHash/s or so.
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mushy99999
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August 02, 2011, 05:06:28 PM
 #34

So why are you bolding "for profit". I am still mining and making quite a LOT of profit thankyou. YOU are the troll. Do some proper research before making such a "bold" statement. Idiot.
I'm guessing you've already paid off the cost of your hardware. If you've done that, or you're not buying hardware specifically for mining, it should work out to be profitable for users with decent ATI cards.

Yes I've paid off the hardware from mining quite a while ago and in the very near future my energy costs will also be zero (see other thread on free UK solar panels). It's very profitable for me. I also hold quite a few bitcoins too and will speculate with those at a later date.
TalkingAntColony
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August 02, 2011, 07:12:03 PM
 #35

After playing around with this calc, it seems that 6 months from now, everyone under 1 ghash will have to call it quits.
mushy99999
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August 02, 2011, 09:09:57 PM
 #36

After playing around with this calc, it seems that 6 months from now, everyone under 1 ghash will have to call it quits.

Oh here we go again......and 4 posts. Yawn....
coinfreak
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August 02, 2011, 09:46:36 PM
 #37

After playing around with this calc, it seems that 6 months from now, everyone under 1 ghash will have to call it quits.

Oh here we go again......and 4 posts. Yawn....
That's it  Grin

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August 02, 2011, 09:47:27 PM
 #38

After playing around with this calc, it seems that 6 months from now, everyone under 1 ghash will have to call it quits.

Oh here we go again......and 4 posts. Yawn....

A-ha..

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BlackPrapor
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March 05, 2013, 12:38:56 PM
 #39

It would be nice to be able to adjust the growth factor for each consequent month. This way I can make most accurate calculations.  Grin

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