This is a bubble, short it!

[Vladimir]

.

[icyak]

and we will see increasing difficulty from now till ... long time

[ElectricMucus]

I can't wait to laugh at the next breed of suckers. Mining with gpus was unprofitable during the capitulation, the same thing will happen this time.
Just this time it'll be first generation avalons, BFLs and those really, really dumb USB miners.

[ElectricMucus]

The more smug the posts are now the longer, not deeper the depression gets.
Looking forward to a good 2 years of lulz.

[smoothie]

The big bankers must like shorts.

I like pants better, when we are talking money.

Shorts are for the beach. 

[Zaih]

Fail to see how this is evident of any sort of bubble.

[yuvadm]

Someone please ELI5 this to me -

Increasing difficulty => less ROI per mining hardware
Less ROI => less profitability of running mining hardware

Profitability will only remain same if price goes up. Otherwise, people shut down rigs.
Or keep mining due to speculation that one day prices will make it worthwhile.
But exponential growth will never keep up.

What's expected here?

[ElectricMucus]

What's expected here?

I expect a period of about a year where hard core enthusiasts (previously described as suckers) run their asic rigs at a net loss.

[ElectricMucus]

Here is a thesis for you:

The positive feedback caused by competition between miners and the latency between ordering equipment and the deployment results in an anti-bubble in regards to the price of Bitcoins.
This was the case in 2011 and I expect that effect to be even stronger this time, since it isn't retail hardware which can be utilized within a week time-frame but mostly pre-ordered equipment.
Ultimately the ends in a classical recession period where the inflation further suppresses the base economy.

[Zarathustra]

I can't wait to laugh at the next breed of suckers. Mining with gpus was unprofitable during the capitulation, the same thing will happen this time.
Just this time it'll be first generation avalons, BFLs and those really, really dumb USB miners.

No, it was profitable. It was unprofitable, if you sold the mined BTC instead of hoarding them.

[ElectricMucus]

I can't wait to laugh at the next breed of suckers. Mining with gpus was unprofitable during the capitulation, the same thing will happen this time.
Just this time it'll be first generation avalons, BFLs and those really, really dumb USB miners.

No, it was profitable. It was unprofitable, if you sold the mined BTC instead of hoarding them.

But less profitable than switching the miner off and buying the equivalent of the electricity cost at market price.
So it was unprofitable from an immediate perspective. (The only one that matters)

[zoinky]

Quick, short all the USD.

[True___Blue]

Most of the smart GPU miners have been using there rigs to mine altcoins as scrypt mining is much more profitable right now.

[BitPirate]

Won't someone overlay this chart over some classic bubbles? Come on, then it will be OBVIOUS! Come on ElectricMucus, you know you want to.

Vladimir: I'm not sure how to interpret this. I think the main problem is that it is impossible to comprehend without the words "You are here" on the chart. I think the word "capitulation" needs to appear in your post somewhere too. Then the picture will be COMPLETE.

P.S. Tulips.

[thezerg]

I can't wait to laugh at the next breed of suckers. Mining with gpus was unprofitable during the capitulation, the same thing will happen this time.
Just this time it'll be first generation avalons, BFLs and those really, really dumb USB miners.

No, it was profitable. It was unprofitable, if you sold the mined BTC instead of hoarding them.

But less profitable than switching the miner off and buying the equivalent of the electricity cost at market price.
So it was unprofitable from an immediate perspective. (The only one that matters)

Someday you'll heat your house with waste generated from BTC (and other) computation.

[prophetx]

What's expected here?

I expect a period of about a year where hard core enthusiasts (previously described as suckers) run their asic rigs at a net loss.

it is not a net loss if you are running a laundromat on a usb stick

[adamstgBit]

There's simply no way hash rate will go down
It will continue to climb at this rate for at least 6 months to 3 years.
there is no stopping it, ASIC is a game changer, and its only going to get better.

edit: also, this is not a bubble, its a correction.

[Tzupy]

Hash rate is going to grow insanely high in the next 6-12 months, until the least efficient ASICs will be retired.