CoinTerra announces its first ASIC - Hash-Rate greater than 500 GH/s

[FeedbackLoop]

16K as pre order for December quite risky investment, little bit too much considering more carefully current scenario, in any way it will pay back and will give you a profit around USD 5,800 by November 2014.

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

Also by announcing price CoinTerra tells competitors what price mark they will have to beat in December, so you pay now 16K and be sure that in December there will be "ship now" offers for better money.

great to see asic's top brass arriving into bitcoins, but obvious they knows little about mining and mining business.

at least private pool with no fee is a must have addition to any mining equipment manufacturer. Much better approach would be to start leasing equipment instead of selling it. I'm in Pune Open-Silicon has manufacturing facility here, I would be interested in lease.

Can you post your genesisblock.com analysis? Notice it gives you a link directly to your analysis.

Thanks!
 

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[Pinwheel]

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/6f92e4c6d2

[r3wt]

so many sockpuppets

[gkm22d]

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/6f92e4c6d2

I think that your 66% network increase is low short term, high long term.

[crumbs]

so many sockpuppets

No socks here

[xyzzy099]

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/6f92e4c6d2

I think that your 66% network increase is low short term, high long term.

+1

[FeedbackLoop]

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/6f92e4c6d2

Thanks!

Though I would change the mining start to January and exchange rate to BitStamp:

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/c1ca4b3013

Very sensitive simulation with these exponentials... But I think the exponential is here to stay at least until then. What any successful company will add from now on will be measured in PH/s (so hundreds of millions in extra difficulty per delivering company).

[r3wt]

sucker born everyminute. show me the prototype. show me  a design plan shit, show us something. this thread looks like a bunch of bought accounts social engineering the suckers of the world to putting money don on this ponzi scheme. cointerras website is a joke. read the about page. hyperbole and cave at, ad nauseum. don't be a sucker folks.

[FeedbackLoop]

Just want to add that this is not an unique situation. Several companies show hardware breaking even or doing terribly with just one month shift.

[bbxx]

Pity, there is no profitable miner preorder now...

[Pinwheel]

sucker born everyminute. show me the prototype. show me  a design plan shit, show us something. this thread looks like a bunch of bought accounts social engineering the suckers of the world to putting money don on this ponzi scheme. cointerras website is a joke. read the about page. hyperbole and cave at, ad nauseum. don't be a sucker folks.

that was not so bold move with pre-orders, but people behind of this project appears to be very real and verifiable.

[cedivad]

Dissuade me from buying.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Dissuade me from buying.

1) It likely will be last to market.  Even if one or more companies are delayed (or never delivers) you can expect at least three well capitalized companies will be shipping in significant volume before this release date.  That is a bad starting position.

2) ROI% is highly correlated to starting difficulty.  The further out the start of mining the more uncertainty.  The bigger issue is that given all the pre-orders and all the other companies with release date over the next couple months there never has been more uncertainty to what difficulty will be in 90 days than at any other point in time.  Having a launch after that makes a buy right now very risky.  Since your ultimate ROI% depends heavily on what the difficulty is when you start mining even if you are 100% certain you will have the chip on 1 December right now you are essentially gambling that difficulty will be low enough.  You might be right but you also might be wrong.  As we get closer to December the uncertainty will be less (because we will see the rate that new hardware is making it to the market and can project future rollout rates).  Right now at this price point you might as well go to Vegas and put $14K on the pass line at the craps table, save the other $1,600 for one awesome weekend either way.

3) Once other companies clear their backorders they have no incentive to keep prices high.  The NRE is paid, the gross profit margins are extremely high and they all have a product which devalues based on difficulty.   That creates a perfect scenario for a pricing war.  Worst case scenario a company like bitfury clears their Oct pre-orders, sees Nov sales flat line and cuts prices 75% for delivery in two weeks because they estimate a competitor will be clearing their backlog by December and they want to capture the sales while they still can.  You took all the risk and some noob buying in late November gets a unit quicker and cheaper.

4) A lack of details.  Ok they don't have the chips yet I get that.  However the site has nothing.  It is a marketing brochure.  Give us something.  How large is the case?  Will it be rackmountable?   Do they have some initial PCB layout?  What do they intend to use for a controller?  How do they plan to handle the heat?  500 GH/s is a large hot die.  Some details on the chip, package, heatspreader would be nice.   Have they done any thermal simulations on the proposed case (airflow, heatsinks, etc).  None of that requires an active chip.  A watt is a watt.  Ceramic heating elements in a case would provide assurance they can remove the kind of heat necessary. Even simple stuff like how big is the PSU?  Can it be used on a 120V 15A outlet (max of 1440W)?  Would really suck as an American to find out that due to wattage it will require a 240V outlet if you don't have one.

For the record I don't think it is a "scam" or fake.  Given the people involved I do believe they have the talent and connections to launch a product. That doesn't mean it is a good buy though.

Simple version:
least amount of details
highest system cost
latest launch date

[KS]

(...)
If 1 trillion diff corresponds to $42k price for BTC, what BTC price of $110 corresponds to which diff?

That should give us the end-point of difficulty leveling off and should also tell us roughly when to expect that to finish levelling.

≃2.6 billion diff = ways to go.

[Syke]

(...)
If 1 trillion diff corresponds to $42k price for BTC, what BTC price of $110 corresponds to which diff?

That should give us the end-point of difficulty leveling off and should also tell us roughly when to expect that to finish levelling.

≃2.6 billion diff = ways to go.

That'll take about 14 difficulty adjustments at 30% each. I think we'll reach that by end of this year.

[KS]

(...)
If 1 trillion diff corresponds to $42k price for BTC, what BTC price of $110 corresponds to which diff?

That should give us the end-point of difficulty leveling off and should also tell us roughly when to expect that to finish levelling.

≃2.6 billion diff = ways to go.

That'll take about 14 difficulty adjustments at 30% each. I think we'll reach that by end of this year.

But I doubt it's a reasonable estimate as it would represent about 50x the current hashing power, or add another 27000+ TH.

That's a lot of hardware, even at 400GH/s per unit (≃67K units).

[DeathAndTaxes]

(...)
If 1 trillion diff corresponds to $42k price for BTC, what BTC price of $110 corresponds to which diff?

That should give us the end-point of difficulty leveling off and should also tell us roughly when to expect that to finish levelling.

≃2.6 billion diff = ways to go.

That'll take about 14 difficulty adjustments at 30% each. I think we'll reach that by end of this year.

But I doubt it's a reasonable estimate as it would represent about 50x the current hashing power, or add another 27000+ TH.

That's a lot of hardware, even at 400GH/s per unit (≃67K units).

Remember that assumes free hardware.  It is just electrical cost  = value of Bitcoins mined.  Any higher difficulty and one would be mining at an operating loss.  Most people aren't going to buy a $5,000 box which lets them covert $100 into $100 in BTC.  I mean imagine MtGox required a $5,000 fee just to open an account.  Would you?  That is essentially what we are talking about.  So as difficult rises buying more hardware will be less attractive and at the break even point it is completely unattractive.

You could consider it asymptotic, I don't think difficulty will reach break even electrical cost but it does provide an upper bound.  Obviously if break even electrical is ~2.6 billion it is kinda silly to project difficulty to reach 1 trillion.  Miners would be mining for a >95% loss (convert $100 in electricity into $5 in Bitcoins).  I don't think most people would do that given they can just flip the switch to off

Not sure what numbers were used for the 2.6 billion but I used an average GH/W value for the network based on all ASICs released/pre-ordered so far.  It is only a guesstimate but without hard numbers it is difficult to know more.  Another way to say it is that unless either efficiency significantly improves (i.e. 0.2 W/GH or lower) or Bitcoin exchange rate significantly rises (>$200 USD per BTC) it is highly unlikely difficulty will go beyond that.

[Syke]

But I doubt it's a reasonable estimate as it would represent about 50x the current hashing power, or add another 27000+ TH.

That's a lot of hardware, even at 400GH/s per unit (≃67K units).

Sure, it's a worst case estimate. But don't forget, difficulty is going to hit 65M today, so only 40x gets us to 2.6B. 100% increase each month gets us to 1B difficulty by end of year. That's not that unreasonable. There's a lot of hardware that's coming online Q4.

[DeathAndTaxes]

But I doubt it's a reasonable estimate as it would represent about 50x the current hashing power, or add another 27000+ TH.

That's a lot of hardware, even at 400GH/s per unit (≃67K units).

Sure, it's a worst case estimate. But don't forget, difficulty is going to hit 65M today, so only 40x gets us to 2.6B. 100% increase each month gets us to 1B difficulty by end of year. That's not that unreasonable. There's a lot of hardware that's coming online Q4.

At $8 per GH that would be $216,000,000 in hardware. (Monarch & Cointerra)
At $15 per GH that would be $405,000,000 in hardware.  (Hashfast)
At $20 per GH that would be $540,000,000 in hardware.  (Bitfury October)
At $50 per GH that would be $1,350,000,000 in hardware (BFL, AsicMiner, Avalon, Bitfury August).

Possible but unlikely.

[FeedbackLoop]

But I doubt it's a reasonable estimate as it would represent about 50x the current hashing power, or add another 27000+ TH.

That's a lot of hardware, even at 400GH/s per unit (≃67K units).

Sure, it's a worst case estimate. But don't forget, difficulty is going to hit 65M today, so only 40x gets us to 2.6B. 100% increase each month gets us to 1B difficulty by end of year. That's not that unreasonable. There's a lot of hardware that's coming online Q4.

At $8 per GH that would be $216,000,000 in hardware. (Monarch & Cointerra)
At $15 per GH that would be $405,000,000 in hardware.  (Hashfast)
At $20 per GH that would be $540,000,000 in hardware.  (Bitfury October)
At $50 per GH that would be $1,350,000,000 in hardware (BFL, AsicMiner, Avalon, Bitfury August).

Possible but unlikely.

Note that manufacturers likely have to book a certain amount of chips (I heard sets of 25 wafers) at the factory. So the number of chips actually hashing in the future might be larger than the number of orders that the manufacturer actually manages to land.  (Also, no KNC??)

Difficulty will overshoot by a lot into deeply unprofitable territory before the flow of chips reduces.