.

[chodpaba]

.

[adamstgBit]

what is the experimental indicator?

[Tzupy]

We all like targets and time frames here—right?

So there's an experimental indicator I have been toying with. I'm going to see if it can get reasonably close to calling a mid-term peak. I'll update in the thread as new data comes in and there is any change to report on the target the indicator is calling.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013
$124

—Assume your own risk, blah blah...

Considering the latest developments, would you mind updating your peak prediction?

[lucas.sev]

Wednesday, August 22, 2013
$124

You do not believe we will touch 99?

[Tzupy]

Wednesday, August 22, 2013
$124

You do not believe we will touch 99?

Good question, but I think I have a better one: are you the whale who dumped today 6k BTC and may dump some 13k -14k soon?
That's the only way to persuade me that BTC will rise to ~124 $ during the next two weeks.

[Adrian-x]

Wednesday, August 22, 2013
$124

Is $124 reflected of the trades in Ft. Gox, as a result of USD shortage or the like? Or do you predict we will see the peak across the board?

[monkeybars]

Bold prediction -- nearly 25% in two weeks. I'd think more like $109.50 on the 24th.

[Impaler]

I predict horizontal movement with continued low volume that slowly evolves into a downward trend over the next month, nothing like this rally chodpaba sees.

[Adrian-x]

I think it can easily happen if Gox announces it is halting Fiat withdraws and news gets out that they are cash strapped, we'll see the same spike as we saw earlier at the end of May.

[adamstgBit]

I think it can easily happen if Gox announces it is halting Fiat withdraws and news gets out that they are cash strapped, we'll see the same spike as we saw earlier at the end of May.

but, Gox has announced its halting Fiat withdraws. And they said they had taken "significant losses" due to banking fraud ( they were crediting the accounts b4 the money arrived and sometimes the money never got their )

their no way to know how bad the damage is, they won't say.

but the news has been out their for some time now.

[Adrian-x]

but, Gox has announced its halting Fiat withdraws...
but the news has been out their for some time now.

The reality is just filtering through to the laggards.

[Adrian-x]

I think it can easily happen if Gox announces it is halting Fiat withdraws and news gets out that they are cash strapped, we'll see the same spike as we saw earlier at the end of May.

Seeing what makes this trajectory, it doesn't seem to have any relation to 'news', it behaves much more like a chaotic attractor.

You'll be well worthy of your avatar if the other markets follow without bifurcating.

[Adrian-x]

Friday, August 23, 2013
$123

Why adjust both variables?

[Adrian-x]

Thanks

[Impaler]

It seems the predicted rally is moving 1 day into the future every day.  I understand that volume is at appallingly low levels but this rally is looking doubtful to me, coin depth on Gox has been on a slight upward trajectory but dollars seem hesitant, having briefly fallen to 11 million recently before coming back (seemingly in one instant transaction that looks like a whale).

[Tzupy]

I predict that chodpaba will revise the prediction to 120 -121, and I have a theory about how this can happen.
Normally we should be in wave C of the corrective trend, when $ are withdrawn from the market, and we should have
5 downwards sub-waves. But on Fort Gox it happens the other way: each BTC withdrawal moves the price up, so
maybe we are going to experience another 4 'downward' sub-waves, that actually move the price up by 3 - 4 $ each.

[HeliKopterBen]

Here is how to make a successful prediction:

1)  Write an lengthy article with the following statements spaced apart with a lot of mumbo jumbo in between: 
"Based on solid fundamentals and a few technical indicators I am looking at, we should see a price increase in the next days/weeks/months." 
"Recent government clamp-downs over the last few days could cause a price decline." 
"With low volume and a general disinterest in the market place, the price could be stagnant."
2)  Later point back to whichever statement was correct.
3)  Nobody bothers to go back and look at what you actually wrote and you are declared a genius.

[HeliKopterBen]

Here is how to make a successful prediction:

1)  Write an lengthy article with the following statements spaced apart with a lot of mumbo jumbo in between: 
"Based on solid fundamentals and a few technical indicators I am looking at, we should see a price increase in the next days/weeks/months." 
"Recent government clamp-downs over the last few days could cause a price decline." 
"With low volume and a general disinterest in the market place, the price could be stagnant."
2)  Later point back to whichever statement was correct.
3)  Nobody bothers to go back and look at what you actually wrote and you are declared a genius.

First of all, I don't believe any of those things. I have revised my opinion of the trajectory of Bitocin market development over time but these points have become fairly solidified.

There is no reason to expect that government clamp-downs, as you say, would cause price to decline. My position has been that this will introduce frictions which will cause exchange rate differentials, sometimes large differentials leading ultimately to a bifurcation of crypto-only, and crypto/native markets.

There is no reason to expect disinterest in market price to cause price to stagnate. In the short-mid term this is largely due to uncertainty. In the long term price will follow a similar pattern to what we have observed, with increasing volatility leading to a catastrophe which ultimately bifurcates the market. This behavior, I believe, can be described as a deterministic chaotic attractor. I am seeking to understand the mechanics of that system. In doing so I occasionally observe indicators that seem to provide useful information on an actionable time scale.

It is all experimental, very pre-alpha, use at your own risk. 

Maybe I should have added

/sarc

[keystroke]

Going to Monte Carlo. I'll be back soon after I figure out all the dependencies.

$110 Oracle, do we bet red or black?

[Impaler]

Were seeing the same pattern in these price rises that I identified earlier, it's due to falling coin depth on Gox, plummeting from 90K to 70K in just 2 days.  Were also seeing the same 2:1 trade volume to depth decline, the two days have been about 20K in total volume each vs 10K in depth lose each, meaning that the market is continuing to be very illiquid and the Gox-bitstamp differential is growing, Gox has already shot past its late July peak while bit-stamp remains below its equivalent peak.