[1050 TH] BitMinter.com [1% PPLNS,Pays TxFees +MergedMining,Stratum,GBT,vardiff]

[ThatFatGuy]

I read the above post, and 3.4 BTC mined over the next ten days isn't bad, but what is-- is the next ten days at around 1.7 BTC. 

It can't be on;y me, no matter what miner you have this depreciation means that even first in line for the newest BFL server blades, you would still depreciate total hash rate by half every ten days.

Brutal.

[1714039518]

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[1714039518]

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[baddogshuck]

Well, there are so many people who are doing what you are doing right now - buying high hashrate ASICs.  Because of this the the amount of hashing power is increasing rapidly.  When the current rush of miners have got their systems in-hand, the hash rate will steady out somewhat.

Unless the price of bitcoin increases, I don't think rigs bought now will ever make enough to repay their cost as the total hash rate spirals.

Of course, you could keep buying more rigs to keep up your hashing power 

[TheQuin]

I read the above post, and 3.4 BTC mined over the next ten days isn't bad, but what is-- is the next ten days at around 1.7 BTC. 

It depends what the next difficulty is. This site has an estimate http://dot-bit.org/tools/nextDifficulty.php
of 102,941,704 so plugging that in I calculate. 0.293 per day. Of course that estimate may not be accurate.

[philipma1957]

Well, there are so many people who are doing what you are doing right now - buying high hashrate ASICs.  Because of this the the amount of hashing power is increasing rapidly.  When the current rush of miners have got their systems in-hand, the hash rate will steady out somewhat.

Unless the price of bitcoin increases, I don't think rigs bought now will ever make enough to repay their cost as the total hash rate spirals.

Of course, you could keep buying more rigs to keep up your hashing power  

or he could sell his machine on ebay for a profit .  he paid the old price around 1500.

 he could sell it for 3.5k right now 2000 ahead.  the price of 3.5k would be the lowest on ebay, just be sure to do pickup only and btc only (no charge backs)

 then buy asic sticks with the profit (if he really wants to mine) I would sell him 50 sticks for 1500.

 his out of pocket cost for the sticks would be zero. he would have only 17gh hash but it would be free. and still have 500 in his pocket.  he would make me happy and the ebayer that paid "only" 3500 would be happy.  

now down the road his asic sticks would not make a profit due to power costs (sounds like gpus) but 50 sticks pulls 200 watts or so and in the winter would be a bit of free heat so to speak.

[ThatFatGuy]

Thanks to TheQuinn and phillipma1957 for the extremely useful calculators.

My data simply comes from a screen shot of my BitMinter from 13 days ago and today.  0.62 BTC to 0.34 BTC.   Like a frog in boiling water.

it is not as extreme as n/2, so it is more like n/1.78 or something....  but tough.

Okay then, why did BTCs jump to $145 USD and are now going back down on MtGox?  Perhaps my anxiety is heightened by this unexplained drop.

Shouldn't it merely be a narrowing of the spread between exchanges as confidence in Gox decreased?

Funny how my view of this game has changed in ten days time.

[ThatFatGuy]

yes, well....  sorry but no matter how disappointed I am with the decrease in profitability, at least I am not a vendor with thousands of sticks on his hand with no way to move them....

they'll give them away with wrist bands at live music events....

[Epoch]

Okay but riddle me this: How is that my hash rate seems to be decreasing by half every 13 days!?! (according to the Mint Speed of the BitMinter Client v1.4.1).  Friday before last at around 7 PM Central I was getting over 0.6 BTC per day, and now around 0.35 BTC.  

You should educate yourself in the field you have chosen to pursue: bitcoin mining. You would then be able to answer such questions yourself instead of tripping over what appears to be a "WTF" moment for you.

tldr: your hashrate is NOT decreasing by half every 13 days. Here is what happened:

Friday before last was August 23. Difficulty then was 50.8 million. Your 60GH Single would have been making 0.6 BTC per day, just like you said. That happened to be the last day of that particular difficulty cycle.

1 day later, on the 24th, difficulty went up to 65.8 million.

Yesterday, on September 4th (10 days later), difficulty went up to what it is now: 87 million. Your 60GH Single now earns 0.35 BTC per day.

There is nothing mysterious about this; difficulty has been going up by 20-30% *every 10-12 days* for the past couple of months, and will *continue* to do so in the short term. 10 days from now your your Single will not be earning 0.35 BTC/day; it will be earning 0.25. If difficulty goes up 30%, your income goes down 30%. Now when that happens, you should be able to understand why.

Take a look here to see how your mining future looks:
http://bitcoindifficulty.com/

[Cascaders28]

Okay but riddle me this: How is that my hash rate seems to be decreasing by half every 13 days!?! (according to the Mint Speed of the BitMinter Client v1.4.1).  Friday before last at around 7 PM Central I was getting over 0.6 BTC per day, and now around 0.35 BTC.  

My basic understanding is that when the pool is smaller you'll receive a higher score as a percentage of the work done for that shift. Since early July as the pool has grown and difficulty has gone nuts I've watched the approx. Mint Speed listed be quartered on my client. I don't have near the hashing power you do but after 2 months at a measly 1.3GH/s I was able to accumulate BTC 1. Bitcoin really seems to be the sort of thing you're best off setting up and forgetting and just watching the balance grow. Which I have an incredibly difficult time with but I'm trying!

[ThatFatGuy]

Thanks Epoch, this is especially helpful: "You should educate yourself in the field you have chosen to pursue: bitcoin mining."

I wasn't trying to piss in your Wheaties.

Every moment is like a WTF moment for me.

It must be great to be a self-assured, arrogant douche with absolute surety.

[Epoch]

I try. Doesn't always work. Glad I could set you straight.

[Jayjay04]

Dr Haribo,

You said you had some plans to make the pool grow ?
It would be important.... very important to get it growing to reduce variance over the 10 day period of difficulty rise...
cause 3 blocks of 95% over 10 days are gonna be a 4 day loss.

Thanks !

[TheQuin]

Okay then, why did BTCs jump to $145 USD and are now going back down on MtGox?  Perhaps my anxiety is heightened by this unexplained drop.

Shouldn't it merely be a narrowing of the spread between exchanges as confidence in Gox decreased?

Funny how my view of this game has changed in ten days time.

The price of Bitcoin like any currency is just a result of supply and demand. Compared to Forex markets Bitcoin is tiny (more than 5 Trillion USD a day traded on Forex) and so can be far more volatile.
The same number of Bitcoins are minted whatever the difficulty. Mining and trading have different inputs. The difference in prices on exchanges is simply a factor of how easy it is to get money in and out of that exchange. Gox is not cheap or easy to get USD out of so you need more USD to buy a Bitcoin than elsewhere.

[DrHaribo]

MyOpenID will shut down 2014.02.01. If you are using MyOpenID to log in at BitMinter, please add an alternative OpenID login under "my account" -> "logins" in our website menu.

[xstr8guy]

Thanks Epoch, this is especially helpful: "You should educate yourself in the field you have chosen to pursue: bitcoin mining."

I wasn't trying to piss in your Wheaties.

Every moment is like a WTF moment for me.

It must be great to be a self-assured, arrogant douche with absolute surety.

Epoch did a perfect job of explaining your "issues" with BitMinter.  I hope you did read and comprehend everything he said.

I sometimes get frustrated too... especially with bad luck.  So I sometimes check out different pools and hash for a couple of days for comparison.  Why haven't you tried that?  Your Single will hash on just about any pool.

[Stinky_Pete]

10 days is a long time in mining, especially when difficulty goes up by about 33% both times - yes, your reward drops by half. You need to have a reason to mine other than hoping to make huge profits.

[Turbor]

10 days is a long time in mining...

Depends how long you're in the game.

[dave111223]

Talk about brutal couple of days.

[peasant]

Just joined this pool a few days ago. Has to be the most brutal bad luck i have ever seen in my mining history. Hope it changes soon.

[Jayjay04]

How much hashrate are you bringing with you ?

Tell your friends about it !

[Cascaders28]

I just added a few more USB miners and now I'm at 3GH/s

Now if only BFL would get to shipping March orders. I know it isn't much but I do have a 7GH/s Jalapeno with my name on it!