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boozer
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September 18, 2013, 12:22:19 AM |
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1 minute?? really! Im not complaining, but this makes no since to me....29hr...20 hr...oh boy 1 min...
Sometimes someone plays the lottery every week their entire life without winning. And then someone plays just a single time and wins. What actually wouldn't make sense is if everyone would win after playing exactly 50 times. is the luck REALLY this bad usually? is this happening in other pools too does anyone know? there is some very high CDF going on at the moment...
No, it's not usually that bad. And yes, bad luck happens on all pools. We did have some really bad luck before and that time Organofcorti did a thorough analysis which you can read here: http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2013/05/131-bitminter-and-luck.htmlGood read.... Might be worthy to have on the front page... Definitely worth bringing up here again  . Side note, i would like to see average cdf for day/week/month/3month (or longer) somewhere.... Maybe in latest blocks or something.... Its Just something, right on the stat page, that people can look at to see that bad luck is just temporary but over the long run, pool cdf/luck is average.... Dont know if anyone else would like it, but it really helps my attitude during bad blocks if i see the bad luck is just the day and the cdf averages next to it proves that the bad luck is just temporary. |
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kano
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September 18, 2013, 12:59:28 AM |
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People, in general, notice the bad and not the good. In Bitcoin it's even worse coz bad means a long time and good means a short time ... Add them together and they average out ... But the uninformed probably just see it as e.g. if the expected time for a block is 5 hours and you find 2 in 10 hours then you are going OK ... even if that 10 hours could have been 9.5 hours of a slow block and 0.5 hours of a fast block - however they will see that as mostly bad  |
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philipma1957
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September 18, 2013, 03:24:35 AM |
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to the dr. do these sticks work plug n play? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=296301.new#new these will be the 'new' usb stick of choice . I can run a lot of them on my usb hubs. do you need one to work on your plug n play java client. I am looking to order a lot of them. since I have lots of hubs. |
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kano
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September 18, 2013, 07:40:52 AM |
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Note, take the average speed 2.45GH/s and assuming the network growth is only 20% each change
(network % diff has averaged more than 20% for the last10 diff changes and averaged more than 30% for the last 4)
They will generate:
~0.73208400BTC in 200 days if you get it today (and not much more but possibly a lot less)
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philipma1957
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September 18, 2013, 10:33:46 AM |
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Note, take the average speed 2.45GH/s and assuming the network growth is only 20% each change
(network % diff has averaged more than 20% for the last10 diff changes and averaged more than 30% for the last 4)
They will generate:
~0.73208400BTC in 200 days if you get it today (and not much more but possibly a lot less)
I am lazy this morning: use 15% and let me know what you get in 200 days. better yet use 20% for 100 days and 5% for 100 days and tell me those numbers. . and if I buy 100 and sell 60 of them on ebay with a small profit say buy for .9btc sell for 140usd. the ones I keep cost under .7 btc btw i consider them to be a bit over priced. but such is that with most asic gear if it delivers fast it cost too much. these are going to replace AM sticks and close to 50000 sticks have been sold by Canaryinthemine : 15.16TH/s - 15,161,963 MH/s producing, ASICMiner devices have been distributed by me so far | Need bitcoins? | www.bitCanary.com |
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Nemo1024
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September 18, 2013, 12:27:03 PM |
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Drat, a stale after 10 hours...  And a 13 minute one right after that to sweeten the deal |
“Dark times lie ahead of us and there will be a time when we must choose between what is easy and what is right.”
“We are only as strong as we are united, as weak as we are divided.”
“It is important to fight and fight again, and keep fighting, for only then can evil be kept at bay, though never quite eradicated.”
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kano
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September 18, 2013, 12:28:44 PM |
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...
and close to 50000 sticks have been sold by Canaryinthemine :
...
Yes that is indeed a lot of BTC people have lost buying them. No one has yet bought an AsicMiner USB from AsicMiner or his distributors and mined BTC on PPS (or equivalent) the amount it cost to buy I know, coz I got pretty much the very first one (sent to me as a dev and I'm closer to HK than the USA) and it's made less than 0.9245165645 BTC so far if it had been mining PPS non stop since the day after I got it ... 13-May ... and they initially sold for ~2BTC ... ouch. |
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DrHaribo (OP)
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September 18, 2013, 05:03:48 PM |
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Welcome home, boozer No, this is a new device. I'll see about adding support for them. |
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Jayjay04
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September 18, 2013, 06:13:06 PM |
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We could organise a group buy only for Bitminter users with these new hashing units ?
Philipma1957 you seem really into the buying and reselling stuff... could you do that ?
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philipma1957
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September 18, 2013, 07:17:59 PM |
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We could organise a group buy only for Bitminter users with these new hashing units ?
Philipma1957 you seem really into the buying and reselling stuff... could you do that ?
maybe. I have pm'd ssinc about a large order. the key to me doing this is the dr gets it working on bitminter as a plug n play. if 1 am stick does .333 and 1 of these does 2.3gh on the same hub with the same power it is a huge improvement. it would be 7x the hash for the same power. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=296301.0 he offered a discount if I buy a lot. I don't gouge for profit. If I made .02 btc on a .90 btc sale it might work for me. but I would only do this if the dr lets me know they run easy on his client. No commitment to this yet as I need to figure out prices with ssinc and the stick needs the dr support. One thing is it would be for the dr website as I have done all my in house mining with him using just the java client. |
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cspindor
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September 18, 2013, 07:45:13 PM |
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I have only been in the mining side of bitcoin for a month. Is this a common day? 3 stale in one day? WTH is going on?? It's bad enough that I read all the bad quotes about the am stick I apparently wasted my bc on, Now this! (Bitcoin will die if this don't get better) FRUSTRATIONS!!!&%*#@@&!! That's all for now
By the way Doc, thanx for all you do to keep this easy for the programing challaged!
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DrHaribo (OP)
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September 18, 2013, 08:04:10 PM |
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the key to me doing this is the dr gets it working on bitminter as a plug n play.
I'm looking into this. These "Red Fury" units apparently show up as virtual serial (COM) ports. That may make it possible to add support quickly and easily since that kind of thing is in the client already. Is this a common day? 3 stale in one day?
No, that's incredibly bad luck.  |
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clock27
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September 18, 2013, 08:10:14 PM |
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i must say i love bitminter the only pool i have been able to make anything off of when it comes to BTC |
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casilan
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September 18, 2013, 08:25:50 PM |
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I just started mining at the start of this week, apparently bitminter seems to be really user friendly.
If Phillipma is to help boost the mining effort of the pool by offering to sell more powerful asic sticks, then it does sounds really good for the whole pool.
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Jayjay04
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September 18, 2013, 08:45:00 PM |
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We could organise a group buy only for Bitminter users with these new hashing units ?
Philipma1957 you seem really into the buying and reselling stuff... could you do that ?
maybe. I have pm'd ssinc about a large order. the key to me doing this is the dr gets it working on bitminter as a plug n play. if 1 am stick does .333 and 1 of these does 2.3gh on the same hub with the same power it is a huge improvement. it would be 7x the hash for the same power. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=296301.0 he offered a discount if I buy a lot. I don't gouge for profit. If I made .02 btc on a .90 btc sale it might work for me. but I would only do this if the dr lets me know they run easy on his client. No commitment to this yet as I need to figure out prices with ssinc and the stick needs the dr support. One thing is it would be for the dr website as I have done all my in house mining with him using just the java client. THX let us know when you have the details. what about these prices !?!? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=291456.0 |
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philipma1957
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September 18, 2013, 09:01:05 PM |
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We could organise a group buy only for Bitminter users with these new hashing units ?
Philipma1957 you seem really into the buying and reselling stuff... could you do that ?
maybe. I have pm'd ssinc about a large order. the key to me doing this is the dr gets it working on bitminter as a plug n play. if 1 am stick does .333 and 1 of these does 2.3gh on the same hub with the same power it is a huge improvement. it would be 7x the hash for the same power. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=296301.0 he offered a discount if I buy a lot. I don't gouge for profit. If I made .02 btc on a .90 btc sale it might work for me. but I would only do this if the dr lets me know they run easy on his client. No commitment to this yet as I need to figure out prices with ssinc and the stick needs the dr support. One thing is it would be for the dr website as I have done all my in house mining with him using just the java client. THX let us know when you have the details. what about these prices !?!? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=291456.0the second stick has no heat sink and is just a bit behind in time. 2 weeks slower. before them come out. the first stick cost more . but it does exist and it actually works as advertised. I have talked a bit with both sellers. both seem to be decent guys. There seems to be interest from the dr's pool members. I am going to buy some coins from coinbase today and for the next 3 days. I am going to pm both guys and see if the dr can get these to work. If we do A buy for the dr's pool members I will front the btc and not expect any money from anyone. until they are in my hands and work on the doctors pool. I would sell for very low markup a minimum of 2 sticks per sale. Not sure about the max per buyer. |
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philipma1957
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September 18, 2013, 09:33:24 PM |
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I just purchased 5 btc from coinbase. I will get more coins on Thur. I am inclined to get 20 sticks from this seller https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=296301.0 my cost would be 17 btc with free shipping. I would get them about OCT 1-7. If I pay .85 btc a coin and sell sets of 2 at 1.78 btc. I make .08 btc I can ship to the usa for .05 btc so my profit on a pair would be .03btc for the buyer he gets a pair of in hand sticks that ran a day before I ship them. it is a little better then buying directly from the link above. All this is very tentative, but in the ball park. it is geared for the little guy. will you make money with 4.4gh at 1.78btc maybe maybe not.. of course if you are buying a lot of sticks buying direct from ssinc is better then buying from me. I really believe that preorders should not be suffered on the btc community. So if i do this they will be in hand and work on bitminter |
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Stinky_Pete
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September 18, 2013, 10:00:29 PM |
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Shipping to UK?
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kano
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September 18, 2013, 10:14:36 PM |
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Note that a 2.7GH/s device (that is the maximum - I think they all average 2.45GH/s) will not return 0.9BTC
Their expected return, if KnC fails, would be ~0.8BTC after 200 days with 20% difficulty changes each 11 days
currently the last 10 difficulty changes have averaged over 20% and the last 4 have averaged over 30%
If KnC succeeds on time, the network difficulty change over the next 60 days will be something like 200% to 400% so nothing you buy today from anyone will return it's BTC amount
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philipma1957
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September 18, 2013, 10:46:30 PM
Last edit: September 18, 2013, 11:25:18 PM by philipma1957 |
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Note that a 2.7GH/s device (that is the maximum - I think they all average 2.45GH/s) will not return 0.9BTC
Their expected return, if KnC fails, would be ~0.8BTC after 200 days with 20% difficulty changes each 11 days
currently the last 10 difficulty changes have averaged over 20% and the last 4 have averaged over 30%
If KnC succeeds on time, the network difficulty change over the next 60 days will be something like 200% to 400% so nothing you buy today from anyone will return it's BTC amount
show 20% for 100 days and compare to 15% for 100 days. okay here it is 112 mill now is: 134.4 11 days of hash = .1011 161.28 ' days of hash = .0841 .1852 193.536 ' days of hash = .0702 .2554 232.24 ' days of hash = .0584 .3138 278.69 ' days of hash = .0487 .3625 334.43 ' days of hash = .0405 .4030 401.31 ' days of hash = .0337 .4367 481.57 ' days of hash = .0281 .4648 577.89 ' days of hash = .0234 .4882 so 99 days at 20 % and you are correct but look at 15% 128.8 .1058 148.12 .0915 170.338 .0797 195.888 .0695 225.272 .0602 259.062 .0523 297.922 .0456 342.610 .0396 394.002 .0343 .5785 so 99 days at 15% you are at .5785 coins you would get roi in under 250 days 453.100 .0299 .6084 512.065 .0264 .6348 599.224 689.108 792.474 911.345 |
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