2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)

[zazzbg]

Retry Short

https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3IVGEP9P-2018-Cryptocurrency-Crash-Elliott-Wave-Recommencing/

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10522
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11250
RISK: 7%
REWARD: 60%

Happy Chinese New Bear!

What happened with this trade, bear?

[1714025907]

1714025907

[1714025907]

1714025907

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Retry Short

https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3IVGEP9P-2018-Cryptocurrency-Crash-Elliott-Wave-Recommencing/

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10522
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11250
RISK: 7%
REWARD: 60%

Happy Chinese New Bear!

https://i.imgur.com/XqyBEK1.png

What happened with this trade, bear?

Closed at a loss of 7% as written here, keep up!
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.msg30650900#msg30650900

[rusla99]

Any new trade?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Bear Market Resumes?

Bitcoin has rallied 100% from the 6000 (Bifinex) lows set on 06-FEB-2018.

A completed wave structure at 10271 was the first attempt at calling the top of a bear market rally, which failed. A subdivision of the wave structure took the market to 11250 which was the second failed attempt at calling the top.

Attempt #1: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.msg30389518#msg30389518
Attempt #2: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.msg30521817#msg30521817

Since failure of calling the top at two previous junctures, Fibonacci resistance zones have been calculated as follows:

    Fibonacci resistance clusters, zone 1:
        @11306: 38.2% retracement of the downtrend from 17-DEC-2017
        @11626: 50% retracement of the downtrend from 06-JAN-2018
        @11652: The first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) times 1.236 in length, would equal the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-11652).
        @11528: Average

     Fibonacci resistance clusters, zone 2:
        @12100: The first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) times 1.382 in length, would equal the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-12100).
        @12293: 38.2% retracement of entire Bitcoin market.
        @12463: The first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) times 1.5 in length, would equal the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-12463).
        @12285: Average

    Cumulative average: 11907 (Bitfinex).

As of 20-FEB-2018, the market appears to have completed a Triple Zig-Zag formation from 7851 to 11788, which is just a mere 119 points shy of the 11907 cumulative average of the aforementioned Fibonacci resistance zones.



In addition, weakening internals of an overbought RSI has been creating negative divergences against rising price action on the 4-hr.

Compounded with largest drop since the rally began on 06-FEB-2018, and trend-reversals occurring in popular Altcoins; there is reason once more to suggest the bear market rally has completed, and the second leg of the bear market may be underway.

It is always a precarious pursuit in attempting to call major market turns; nevertheless, third time lucky?!

Short position activated overnight (UTC midnight) at 10900, with an initial target of 4257 which represents a 78.6% Fibonacci decline of the entire Bitcoin market:

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10900
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11788
RISK: 8.15%
REWARD: 60%

A more conservative trade would be to await until the market takes out the low of 10308 (Bitfinex) and 10279 (Coinbase) which is the current key level between the bulls & bears. And then, short positions can be initiated on bounces with a stop at 11788 (Bitfinex) and 11775 (Coinbase).

Elliott Wave speculative models indicative of price and structure, not time; as follows (popular Altcoins included):

[fabiorem]

In 2015 BTC was at the lowest point (at least from 2014), and it was accepted more than in late 2013 and 2014.
Strange isn't it?

It is not, there was few use cases for BTC before 2015. Myself I only bought my first bitcoin in 2015, to pay a cloud service. This service was not accepting it before.

From 2015 to 2017 merchant adoption was only increasing. In June 2017 Steam started accepting bitcoin. When the bear market started in December, Steam stopped accepting bitcoin.

The fees only got really high after late October 2017, which became a concern for most merchants. If you say adoption was low, then someone might be spamming the network with fake transactions, to make the fees go higher, and who that might be? Some claim it was the BCash shills, others claim it was the banksters. Anyway, merchants stopped accepting it when the bear market started, in December. Before that there was even rumours that Amazon was going to accept it before Christmas, but it never happened due to speculation.

The massive spike was provoked by swing traders from Wall Street. They flooded the exchanges after futures got announced in late October. Those future markets are like casinos, and are settled in cash. They use leverage and win the contracts against a counterpart, cover their losses in cripto, make a profit in cash and start a bear market. The bankers then came and say "I told you so", and adoption drops even more. All the while the network spam stops, LN is implemented, bitcoin get better, but will the public use it? Each average joe who lost money with it will speak ill of it, and people will be afraid to use it, knowing it can drop 90% at any moment.

You cant have the same situation of 2013-2015, the multi-year bear market. At that time, there was nearly no merchant adoption, most people didnt even know about it. Now its different. If you have a multi-year bear market now, another crypto will take the crown from bitcoin, because there is a increasing demand for a digital currency, and people dont want one which is always going down.

[muf18]

2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Bear Market Resumes?

Bitcoin has rallied 100% from the 6000 (Bifinex) lows set on 06-FEB-2018.

A completed wave structure at 10271 was the first attempt at calling the top of a bear market rally, which failed. A subdivision of the wave structure took the market to 11250 which was the second failed attempt at calling the top.

Attempt #1: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.msg30389518#msg30389518
Attempt #2: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.msg30521817#msg30521817

Since failure of calling the top at two previous junctures, Fibonacci resistance zones have been calculated as follows:

    Fibonacci resistance clusters, zone 1:
        @11306: 38.2% retracement of the downtrend from 17-DEC-2017
        @11626: 50% retracement of the downtrend from 06-JAN-2018
        @11652: The first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) times 1.236 in length, would equal the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-11652).
        @11528: Average

     Fibonacci resistance clusters, zone 2:
        @12100: The first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) times 1.382 in length, would equal the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-12100).
        @12293: 38.2% retracement of entire Bitcoin market.
        @12463: The first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) times 1.5 in length, would equal the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-12463).
        @12285: Average

    Cumulative average: 11907 (Bitfinex).

As of 20-FEB-2018, the market appears to have completed a Triple Zig-Zag formation from 7851 to 11788, which is just a mere 119 points shy of the 11907 cumulative average of the aforementioned Fibonacci resistance zones.



In addition, weakening internals of an overbought RSI has been creating negative divergences against rising price action on the 4-hr.

Compounded with largest drop since the rally began on 06-FEB-2018, and trend-reversals occurring in popular Altcoins; there is reason once more to suggest the bear market rally has completed, and the second leg of the bear market may be underway.

It is always a precarious pursuit in attempting to call major market turns; nevertheless, third time lucky?!

Short position activated overnight (UTC midnight) at 10900, with an initial target of 4257 which represents a 78.6% Fibonacci decline of the entire Bitcoin market:

BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10900
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11788
RISK: 8.15%
REWARD: 60%

A more conservative trade would be to await until the market takes out the low of 10308 (Bitfinex) and 10279 (Coinbase) which is the current key level between the bulls & bears. And then, short positions can be initiated on bounces with a stop at 11788 (Bitfinex) and 11775 (Coinbase).

Elliott Wave speculative models indicative of price and structure, not time; as follows (popular Altcoins included):

Do you speculate about final marketcap after this crash?
100B$?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Do you speculate about final marketcap after this crash?
100B$?

Historically, when any asset bubble bursts, the unravelling bear market typically lasts 2 years on average (from peak price to ultimate low); and usually erases approx 90% in value (thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes)

Applying the metrics to the cryptocurrency bubble, it would suggest Bitcoin between $850 and $2500 around 2Q2019.

I guess you can do the marketcap math on that.

[sjefdeklerk]

This guy from the Netherlands, who is right quite often, seems to agree with you:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DWp88etWsAA6MMC.jpg

I'm also extremely bearish, fully short now, let's go!

[muf18]

Do you speculate about final marketcap after this crash?
100B$?

Historically, when any asset bubble bursts, the unravelling bear market typically lasts 2 years on average (from peak price to ultimate low); and usually erases approx 90% in value (thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes)

Applying the metrics to the cryptocurrency bubble, it would suggest Bitcoin between $850 and $2500 around 2Q2019.

I guess you can do the marketcap math on that.

Yeah, I know, I thought you had some other chart for whole marketcap, because I have (primitive, but estimates, are always good to have some point of view).

I see now, that you have included on all major alts USD, apart from ADA and TRX. So those are going to have major bloodbathes, under USD value from the start of charts, wow.

[drays]

I see now, that you have included on all major alts USD, apart from ADA and TRX. So those are going to have major bloodbathes, under USD value from the start of charts, wow.

I wouldn't rely on those altcoin charts. OP obviously has very little idea on what altcoins are (what they are created for, what they are trying to achieve, what drives their price, etc), so he just draws those charts based purely on TA, without taking into account their possible (and ongoing) development and induced price swings.

Thats typical for most traders though. I really like this frase from Phillip Fisher, and it applies well here - "The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing."

Also - thats my subjective view though - the main market for most alts is ALT/BTC, not ALT/USD, so analysis should be based on corresponding ALT/BTC charts.

[muf18]

Major alts are better viewed with USD pairing, because BTC pairing is too erratic, and doesn't make sense, and I agree with it.
If you try to do TA on NEO with BTC, it doesn't make sense, because it was pumping insanely, and people who were pumping were focused on USD price, also when depumping it (when price to BTC collapsed, but to USD was quite stable, it was intentional to not collapse market too fast, because they also had another ace - which showed pumping from oct/nov).
Because of mega pumping BTC in 3-4Q 2017, most alts couldn't even achieve their ATH from may/june, so it was one of the indicators, that we are in downturns.

[drays]

Major alts are better viewed with USD pairing, because BTC pairing is too erratic, and doesn't make sense, and I agree with it.
If you try to do TA on NEO with BTC, it doesn't make sense, because it was pumping insanely, and people who were pumping were focused on USD price, also when depumping it (when price to BTC collapsed, but to USD was quite stable, it was intentional to not collapse market too fast, because they also had another ace - which showed pumping from oct/nov).
Because of mega pumping BTC in 3-4Q 2017, most alts couldn't even achieve their ATH from may/june, so it was one of the indicators, that we are in downturns.

I didn't follow NEO, cannot comment on that. But even briefly looking on alt list on CMC you can note their USD prices follow BTC to a big extent. BTC rallies make all the alt charts look fairly similar, just because they gain and lose USD value together, being driven by overall public sentiment towards crypto (and towards BTC as the main specimen of the crypto fauna ).

Looking on price against BTC (rather than USD) one could see whether alt is doing well or not. Not sure if it helps TA though... I personally usually am trying to catch the tendency of the project development, rather than base on TA for price prediction.

[yonjitsu]

This is another FUD that is about to fail again and make those FUD spreaders to even hate cryptocurrencies. Yes they have the right to say about their opinion about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies but i just wonder until when they will stop wasting time spreading FUD even if they got denied by bitcoin and cryptocurrencies all the time.

[sjefdeklerk]

Everything going exactly like planned. Just broke the 9600, next stop will be 8900 and from there back to new lows

[muf18]

Everything going exactly like planned. Just broke the 9600, next stop will be 8900 and from there back to new lows

Shhh... What you are saying, it's only "FUD", what you are doing, you want to destroy cryptocurrencies, let's pretend there isn't downtrend, just say everything is ok, and in colourful rainbow.
You are public enemy numero uno for crypto culters.

Stupidity and ignorance has taken over. But yeah, everything is FUD. Strong points and numerous warnings are FUD, TA is FUD, market is FUDDed, tanking price (because of market cycle) is FUD, everything is FUD.

Crypto cult =/= People, who actually care about a state of cryptocurrencies environment/markets.

[sjefdeklerk]

Everything going exactly like planned. Just broke the 9600, next stop will be 8900 and from there back to new lows

Shhh... What you are saying, it's only "FUD", what you are doing, you want to destroy cryptocurrencies, let's pretend there isn't downtrend, just say everything is ok, and in colourful rainbow.
You are public enemy numero uno for crypto culters.

Stupidity and ignorance has taken over. But yeah, everything is FUD. Strong points and numerous warnings are FUD, TA is FUD, market is FUDDed, tanking price (because of market cycle) is FUD, everything is FUD.

Crypto cult =/= People, who actually care about a state of cryptocurrencies environment/markets.

Haha yeah that's how it works. The crypto believers call anything they don't like 'FUD'. Well we'll see who's right soon enough. This thing is going to crash HARD

[drays]

Haha yeah that's how it works. The crypto believers call anything they don't like 'FUD'. Well we'll see who's right soon enough. This thing is going to crash HARD

I wonder whats your definition of "HARD"?

[sjefdeklerk]

Haha yeah that's how it works. The crypto believers call anything they don't like 'FUD'. Well we'll see who's right soon enough. This thing is going to crash HARD

Whats your definition of "HARD"?

Well all anybody can do is speculate. But I follow 2 people in the Netherlands who are right quite often and they're drawing similar charts:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DWp88etWsAA6MMC.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DWtE8iOUQAEps9y.jpg:large

Pretty much like topic starter here.

So if they're correct, we might be heading to $3000-$4000

Needless to say, I'm positioned fully short at the moment.

[sjefdeklerk]

And another reason why I'm so bearish: in the last crash, the one until $6000, there was a HUGE buyer, who kept the market alive on his own, on bitfinex. He easily bought 25.000 BTC when it started tanking within 24 hours, using hidden orders. I made a topic about it when it happened: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2864671.0 And he kept buying after the first 24 hours too, all the way up to 10k. Without this guy the markets would have tanked to $3000-$4000. And the thing is, I haven't seen this guy in a while. So it seems he's done. Without him, the markets will die way harder than last time if it starts tanking.

[ThePunisher49X]

You can stare at charts all day but at the end of the day you have what you been hodl for so long.
Right now it doesn't look so bright as it has gone down to a two month low in less than the last 24 hours.
But you only need to wait another 24 hours for it to recover.