2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)

[muf18]

Well moon boys, where is your charts then?

At least he is posting it, unlike critics like you, which are always funny, cause you dont even know how to trade.

And yes Bitcoin tend to overshoot targets, but it's going with overall downtrend quite nicely.

[AR_fan]

Well moon boys, where is your charts then?

At least he is posting it, unlike critics like you, which are always funny, cause you dont even know how to trade.

And yes Bitcoin tend to overshoot targets, but it's going with overall downtrend quite nicely.

+1

I can't believe they are criticizing just after he got the wave E right lol

and yeah you guys have to start to think in term of "trend" not in term of numbers or target, the whole trend is right for now

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

So after your previous prediction graph completely fails to conforms to reality, you post the next one, now adjusted for the past events. Well, way to go... I see only the main point - the predicted and so long-awaited crash and final capitulation of crypto market (so desired by you), remains constant on all those graphs.

Elliott Wave speculative models are indicative of price and structure, not time; i.e. the projections may occur sooner or later than anticipated.

An overshoot target of $8557 (BITFINEX) was provided as an indication of the top —this came within $50. Exact science, is not exact science; this is occasionally an art form!

There are many probable routes to $4000, and eventually to $1000. The aim is to identify the tops and lows as accurate as possible, and identify the overall trend. The ghost projections are indicative of trend, and not to be taken literally to identify each and every twist and turn en route!

Personally, have no desire in either direction, just simply looking to be on the correct side of the market, and to trade it.

[drays]

Well moon boys, where is your charts then?

I'm not a moon boy. I actually expect 2.5-3K, and maybe 1-2K too (that will be quite dangerous for the whole field though, and is highly undesirable).

At least he is posting it, unlike critics like you, which are always funny, cause you dont even know how to trade.

I don't trade Bitcoin now, too dangerous, and I don't want to participate in downtrend too. May buy when is falls a bit lower.

And yes Bitcoin tend to overshoot targets, but it's going with overall downtrend quite nicely.

I an not against his graphs. People draw them a lot, sometimes they are right, sometimes not. He got right more often than he got wrong up to now. Maybe 60%/40%... Of course if one predicts bear market during a bear market, his graphs will be at least 60% right, so no wonder he is correct often. I just get nervous from the doom scenarios he throws at us in his "prophetic" comments. I feel they are specially aimed to seeding panic.

I can't believe they are criticizing just after he got the wave E right lol

and yeah you guys have to start to think in term of "trend" not in term of numbers or target, the whole trend is right for now

Right? Well, if you throw 5 different target numbers, and one of them is correct with $50 allowance, can this be called "getting the wave E right"?
And if we just think in terms of "trend" not numbers, then no need to draw graphs at all - the trend is pretty clear.

There are many probable routes to $4000, and eventually to $1000. The aim is to identify the tops and lows as accurate as possible, and identify the overall trend. The ghost projections are indicative of trend, and not to be taken literally to identify each and every twist and turn en route!

So ghost projections mean practically nothing and are mostly decorative. Good to know, as I had an impression they are supposed to indicate expected turn points and targets.

[muf18]

But you have got the idea of the "trend", when it's halfway down, or maybe in march-april.

He has (and me also) got a thought of it and chart it, when it was january, when everybody and his dog was longing BTC.
So all for all - yeah he was right more time than not. And it was not 60%, more like 80%.

Overshooting targets aren't the worst, if you can manage capital, and your SLs, and don't overleverage yourself.

But the worst really is the people talking here are mainly people, who like to critic someone's short opportunity (and make non-sense comments like "this is FUD") - which is laughable for traders, cause they are in the space only for the volatility (that's why I'm not taking part in trading normally - it's too absorbing and can be tarnishing, if done unproperly - but in free time I chart it).

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

I an not against his graphs. People draw them a lot, sometimes they are right, sometimes not. He got right more often than he got wrong up to now. Maybe 60%/40%... Of course if one predicts bear market during a bear market, his graphs will be at least 60% right, so no wonder he is correct often. I just get nervous from the doom scenarios he throws at us in his "prophetic" comments. I feel they are specially aimed to seeding panic.

Right? Well, if you throw 5 different target numbers, and one of them is correct with $50 allowance, can this be called "getting the wave E right"?
And if we just think in terms of "trend" not numbers, then no need to draw graphs at all - the trend is pretty clear.

So ghost projections mean practically nothing and are mostly decorative. Good to know, as I had an impression they are supposed to indicate expected turn points and targets.

—No intention to 'seed panic'. The 'prophetic' comments are reflective to provide colour of the socionomic mood against a prevailing bear market, with an attempt to predict events driven by human behavior; for example see https://youtu.be/S-BuS7cokyk and https://www.socionomics.net/

—The overshoot targets to call the top were $8372, $8557, $9084 on BITFINEX —all within a tight range of $715 approx. At the time, the majority of popular social media channels were projecting a return to +$10,000 en route to new all-time highs. The actual top was $8507 on BITFINEX.

—The ghost projections aren't completely for 'decorative' purposes. An attempt is made to speculate occasional peaks and troughs; but overall, not to be taken too literally to identify every turn en route. For example, see the EOS, LTC, BCH, IOT speculative models posted previously: https://i.imgur.com/zlgGqZ1.png, https://i.imgur.com/81hRyVd.png, https://i.imgur.com/2Vk9MTb.png, https://i.imgur.com/F9dN4cv.png, https://i.imgur.com/l5gsmJA.png

In summary, this thread was started in the first week of Jan 2018 when Bitcoin was trading at an average range of $16,000. At that time, a crash was called to $2000-$4000. Thus far, there is no deviation from this call, other than a revision to $500-$1000 by 2020, depending upon whether Bitcoin survives.

[muf18]

One of the few, that actual see what's going on.
Great analysis.

"FUD" naysayers to the author - let's see how this unfold, for now you are proven wrong.

That's my first post here, and I was already watching this thread 2 weeks earlier (d5000 was here, so I probably watched this thread after he posted) I think (also I was quite vibrant observer and charter in 2nd and 3rd week of Jan). There were still then dozens of bulls here.

And I have called this to be the biggest pump and dump (relatively) of this pump cycle, like auroracoin in 2014.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2700961.msg27611446#msg27611446

Don't want to say "I was right" or "I told you so"... But some people were really thinking against of new trend .

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

A number of viable routes to $4000 are currently possible, two such probable routes are speculatively explored here using approx BITSTAMP prices.

1.
—The current sell-off wave starting from the 24-JUL high at $8497, finds support at $5920 (nearby psychological $6000) which is a Fibonacci 0.618% of the wave-d triangle.
—Then, a bounce occurs to retrace a Fibonacci 38.2% to $6900, coinciding with the trendline of the triangle, meeting the CBOE XBT futures expiry on 15-AUG-2018.
—Followed by, a second sell-off leg towards $4000 by SEP/OCT.


2.
—The current sell-off wave starting from the 24-JUL high at $8497, continues to unfold towards $5220 which is a Fibonacci 0.786% of the wave-d triangle.
—Then, a bounce occurs to retrace a Fibonacci 38.2% to $6470, coinciding with CBOE XBT futures expiry on 15-AUG-2018.
—Followed by, a second sell-off leg towards $4000 by SEP/OCT.

In summary, current guesswork suggests price to remain bounded between $5220 and $6900 —and possibly ending near either range by CBOE XBT futures expiry on 15-AUG-2018.

[AR_fan]

My money is on 5200

I'm short from 8K what do you guys do with your shorts in this market when you think its going towards 3K longterm ? Do you treat it as an "inverted hold" ? Like I've been reading Jesse Livermore and there is this guy always saying "you know this is a bull market" and Jesse saying that what he meant was the money was on the whole movement of it not on the variation

So for instance in a bullmarket you just hold and instead of trading every resistance and buying the middle bband but in a bear market you do the same, you just hold your short until we arrive at a new accumulation phase? what do you guys think?

On the other hand, we had many rebound so far... I had other shorts higher that I closed already and opened new ones and made some profit with it but its a bit exhausting to watch market all day when you kinda know where its going long term

So for instance, with Jesse reasoning you buy 200-300$ in 2015 and you sell the double top at 17500 early 2018 instead of selling at every resistance point and re opening longs, that way you insure the safety of your position

If we apply the reasoning to a bear market, you short 17500 and you just keep holding your short until the market go flat and volatility disappear

But in doing so you miss the opportunity to close at 6K and reshort 10K etc

What you lose in profit you gain in peace though

What are your thoughts?

EDIT: does the fact we overshoot to the upside means we're more likely to overshoot to the downside now? i read somewhere that a bubble should be matched by an inverted bubble as the mania phase should be matched by a despair phase

[Febo]

That's my first post here, and I was already watching this thread 2 weeks earlier........................

What do you say on this statement of this perfect chart painter:

 

Quite possibly, a second generation of viable cryptocurrencies may emerge in post 2020. Either way, the days of speculative parabolic price curves in the cryptocurrency markets is over, and any hopes of a return to the all-ti

You also believe that after 5 Bitcoin cycles they will suddenly end?   I guess he is expecting for Bitcoin price to stabilize or something.

[AR_fan]

That's my first post here, and I was already watching this thread 2 weeks earlier........................

What do you say on this statement of this perfect chart painter:

 

Quite possibly, a second generation of viable cryptocurrencies may emerge in post 2020. Either way, the days of speculative parabolic price curves in the cryptocurrency markets is over, and any hopes of a return to the all-ti

You also believe that after 5 Bitcoin cycles they will suddenly end?   I guess he is expecting for Bitcoin price to stabilize or something.

yeah this is bullshit, but this is bitcointalk man, you kinda have to sort between the bullshit and the small truth here and there! the guy is a trader, a chartist, i doubt he even read satoshi white paper, he just want to enjoy the volatility of the market

personally i think we go towards 200-250K next cycle but before that all the noobs and get rich quick people and retail investors have to dump their coins to the hedge fund people that sold the top and are now in control of the market

[drays]

In summary, this thread was started in the first week of Jan 2018 when Bitcoin was trading at an average range of $16,000. At that time, a crash was called to $2000-$4000. Thus far, there is no deviation from this call, other than a revision to $500-$1000 by 2020, depending upon whether Bitcoin survives.

What made you revise your crash target from $2000-$4000 to $500-$1000? Any specific event, or market behaviour, something else?

[kronos123]

I find it really ridiculous and childish to criticize and accuse OP of sowing panic or who wants to see this market die, etc. etc .... he is accused of making the price wrong or drawing ghost projections or at random.
Well I think he is the only person in here that in January he pulled out that study, with graphs and waves, prices and time ..... it will not be 100% accurate, but how would it be?

Anyone who had followed his studies and projections in these 8 months, doing only a few operations on the most important turning points, on the downside and on the upside, would have multiplied his Btc x10 or simply saved his earnings.

I wish I had discovered this thread in January and I would have believed in it right away ... now I thank xxxx123abcxxxx

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

What made you revise your crash target from $2000-$4000 to $500-$1000? Any specific event, or market behaviour, something else?

Based on historical manias, when a speculative asset bubble bursts, an approx 90%-95% collapse unravels in a period of 2 years:

* thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes
* en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_and_bear_markets

Chronicles of historical manias suggest the cryptocurrency bear market is likely to conclude by late 2019 or early 2020, with Bitcoin priced between $500 to $1,000.

• wave-A: The decline from JAN-2018 to FEB-2018 was the first leg of the crash, labelled as wave-A.
• wave-B: The sideways triangle from FEB-2018 to JULY-2018 consisted of five a-b-c-d-e waves, labelled as wave-B.
• wave-C: The final wave-C, and most devastating leg of the crash is now underway.
  @1500: wave-C = wave-A * 0.5% (i.e. an approx 90% decline)
  A +95% collapse would see sub $1000 prices. (i.e. inline with historical manias)

[Febo]

Well I think he is the only person in here that in January he pulled out that study, with graphs and waves, prices and time ..... it will not be 100% accurate, but how would it be?

You are joking right?  The bear market is almost totally identical as it was 5 times in past. Just the times intervals are different. Everyone that know at least a bit of history of Bitcoin could predict this.

What is totally bullshit is his prediction of future. He believes. And for sure this was not written in charts, that Bitcoin will get replaced by 2020. And its value will get to 2014 values.  Values of when Bitcoin block was worth 25 BTC and then will be 6.25 BTC. Total crap.

[fabiorem]

The triangle is pointing to $4888.

This number was already predicted and it is the equivalent of $188 in the 2013-2015 bear market.

That is the "despair phase" and not your round number of $1000, which is just wishful thinking from your part.

[AR_fan]

The triangle is pointing to $4888.

This number was already predicted and it is the equivalent of $188 in the 2013-2015 bear market.

That is the "despair phase" and not your round number of $1000, which is just wishful thinking from your part.

$1000 will be too easy of a buy, bottom will be something in retrospect an easy buy but durant the despair phase will be hard to buy, so it will be something above 1000-1500 because when you buy it you'll be thinking, What if it goes buy to previous top? What if it goes back to $1160?

[Typex]

I am going to guess that we will not get that low.  There is still interest in the space and BTC is deflationary.  Many alts are going to go to zero. 
There are people claiming we will see 200K per BTC a couple of years from now.  They are delusional.  The amount of money that would need to flow into the space to push the price that high would be immense.

[pinkflower]

In summary, this thread was started in the first week of Jan 2018 when Bitcoin was trading at an average range of $16,000. At that time, a crash was called to $2000-$4000. Thus far, there is no deviation from this call, other than a revision to $500-$1000 by 2020, depending upon whether Bitcoin survives.

What made you revise your crash target from $2000-$4000 to $500-$1000? Any specific event, or market behaviour, something else?

That something else would be to make Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt happen in you lol. $2000-$4000 lows is possible but lower than $1000 spells the death for the cryptocurrency economy.

[ApocalypseNow]

8 months have passed and it seems like the technical analysis and getting close to it's last prediction. I'm very terrified that it might happen because people's hopes now only exist on the ETF decision so if they did not favor it then our only way is to go down to the pit of darkness with no light at all.