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Author Topic: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)  (Read 10328 times)
drays
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September 06, 2018, 01:02:06 AM
 #621


In any case, the author of the thread is the only one in here or that I know that last January 8, with the Bitcoin still at about $ 17,000, he gave such indications and price projections and spoke of minimums much lower than those of today ..... but is mocked and discredited by others.


Oh really?  Roll Eyes

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-5199251/Would-buy-bitcoin-bubble-now.html
https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/investing/shouldnt-have-mortgaged-your-house-bitcoin-dips-below-us10000-selloff-erases-december-gains/news-story/ee99e376f9cf2c34b782bb7338c6a88f
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3iMejOPy-Jean-Paul-Rodrigues-Stages-of-a-Bubble/
Note the date of those articles - 21 December 2017, January 18, 2018, Jan 6. With some dedication I can find maybe other 10-20 articles of that period - all with "bubble burst" graph posted.

This notorious graph (the favorite graph of the OP I guess):


was spread with regards to Bitcoin all over financial news media during Nov 2017-Jan 2018. Funny you didn't notice it. Everyone around me was talking about the coming crash in Nov-Dec last year - the question was only will the top be 10K, 20K, 50K or 100K, and will it be in Nov, Dec, Jan or Feb. I was really worried too, so cashed out a bit, just to ease the tension.
In Dec-Jan, after first sell-off the media was especially frightening. Well, that may come down to what kind of media you typically read though, so each ones experience is different. If you read WO thread dominated by a bunch of bulls and wishers/hodlers, then yes, crash would be completely unxepected.

But well, if OP was the first you have noticed, your must be really grateful to him. I personally read this thread as an 'anatomy' of the crash by the proven hater (I know OP doesn't admit that, but anyhow..). I will give credit to OP - but not for the predictions (as they were not something new, as to me), but for some education on Elliot Waves - it adds some calming sensation of 'scientific explanation' to the seemingly chaotic market movements. Also for showing the "bubble burst" process is gradual. What I cannot give the credits for - is for his continued attempts to turn people off from Bitcoin by claiming its value is going to the numbers where the whole existence of crypto ecosystem is rather questionable; and also for ignoring the value of real development currently being done by the whole community around Bitcoin.

EDIT: Some more predictions at that time:
https://www.ft.com/content/7020a6e4-e4e3-11e7-8b99-0191e45377ec?utm_content=buffera5c30&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
http://https://www.valuewalk.com/2017/12/the-anatomy-of-a-bubble/
https://www.thestreet.com/story/14416869/1/bitcoin-bubble-versus-dot-com-boom-tulipmania.html

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September 06, 2018, 01:53:28 AM
 #622

wasnt on bitcointalk so doesnt count sry
drays
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September 06, 2018, 01:56:31 AM
 #623


true and thats why his views are far off from the mainstream views, once they'll be accepted and the author will be acclaimed new master (after the demise of previous jedi masterluc) then we'll be able to consider them to be mainstream


masterluc was/is master of longterm graphs, who published new analisys very rarely, and definitely not correcting them after each unexpected market move. No comparison here, different leagues.

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September 06, 2018, 01:57:53 AM
 #624


true and thats why his views are far off from the mainstream views, once they'll be accepted and the author will be acclaimed new master (after the demise of previous jedi masterluc) then we'll be able to consider them to be mainstream


masterluc was/is master of longterm graphs, who published new analisys very rarely, and definitely not correcting them after each unexpected market move. No comparison here.

he's not correcting he's adjusting, he got the trend right and the global waves thats what counts, who care about exact prices, thats not how u trade anyway
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September 06, 2018, 02:15:30 AM
 #625

Interim bounce...?

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September 06, 2018, 03:09:12 AM
 #626

 
  • Cryptocurrency bubble appears to be over, and a spectacular crash and bear market seems imminent.
  • Bitcoin may bounce towards approx $15500 on Bitfinex, followed by a crash towards $7000-$8000, and then eventually to $2000-$4000.
  • Majority of other cryptocurrencies may cease to exist.
 
 


 Shocked

Unbelievable, how can you dare to publish so much pessimistic thing?

when the price was  $2000 did not have much adoption and even the marketcap was very low, today everything is very different


Bitcoin - It’s Big in Japan
Binance, Bitfinex, Bittrex Temporarily Say No to New Users
New York Stock Exchange Moves on Bitcoin ETFs
Combined Crypto Market Capitalization Races Past $800 Bln
Bitcoin Adoption by Businesses in 2017
Bitcoin Destined For $28,000 In 2018 - Moas

On DEC 17, 2017

Bitcoin Hits $20,000 Per Coin, Capping Year of Enormous Growth

This year will be another good year for bitcoin



Even if this year brings burden to bitcoin and all the cryptocurrencies because i think this is the right value of coins not what we had in bubble season last year,but it doesnt mean $2000 is indeed to happen

Yep, cause they don't really know what happened, they are still clueless.

Most of people still don't see that BTC value is purely speculative, and that there are waves, not real usage for it (apart from speculative "HODLing") -> "HODL GANG"  Cheesy  Grin

So what are you doing here if does?Looks like you dont trust bitcoin anymore then whats the sense of being here?To spread fud and do some homeworks to bring cryptocurrency down?Lol no one cares about your sentiments budz

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September 06, 2018, 03:33:02 AM
 #627

Nope, I just see reality. Even this forum shows how crypto market looks like - a mix of bots, good honest users, and complete freaks.

Real usage - slim. Real usability - even lower. In 2009-2013 - it was even a good payment option. Now with so many gateways, it's not so appealing anymore.

It's nothing to "trust" here, cause it's decentralized consensus, just it's a speculative trading vehicle now (like it wasn't a few years ago... it was always a speculative trading vehicle in the end...).

But at least 5 years ago it was more "used", as to "purchasing", as in to "trading" - relatively much more used for purchasing, than now (relative).

Now 90+% IS trading, and less that 10% for shopping. That's a joke, and it's with almost every crypto - BTC, LTC, ETH, or anything.

Btw. - "FUD" is idiotic term, straight up for morons. And people, who can't comprehend the "true" real value of BTC, which is low quite honest, much lower than now (today's value is a derivative of excessive speculative trading).
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September 06, 2018, 10:41:45 AM
 #628

muf18, reality itself is unknowable to humans, you can only speak of your subjective perception of it.

But... in fact I find posts from muf18 quite useful - there is a need for more capitulation and more desperation, to shake off the ballast. Public is indeed too bullish, which suggests the bear market is far from being at its end.

So bring 'em up - all the depression, grumpiness, disappointment, negativity. Show off your version of reality. Make speculators panic. I would rather not intervene Lips sealed

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September 06, 2018, 01:09:45 PM
 #629

Guys September is here. Are we desperate enough for a bottom?  If not will it happen in October?  Or I was totally wrong and will happen latter on or it already happened months ago.  Some of these questions can at least getting denied if not answered.

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September 07, 2018, 09:53:42 PM
 #630

Not sure about that one. At this point it’s in vogue to be bearish and the 4-5K level is the mainstream view. The funny thing is the people who hold this viewpoint think they are being contrarian but are actually the majority.

The majority of social media, i.e. YouTube/Twitter/Reddit/Telegram/etc are STILL expecting a return to at least $10,000 before 2018 ends in 4 months —including YOU the reader of this comment!
Being a bull or a hodlr is STILL the overcrowded trade.

Where are the numbers to back your assertions? The fact that short interest in BTC and ETH are sitting at all time highs throws cold water all over your argument. Cold numbers, FACTS.
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September 08, 2018, 01:28:15 AM
 #631



Where are the numbers to back your assertions? The fact that short interest in BTC and ETH are sitting at all time highs throws cold water all over your argument. Cold numbers, FACTS.

where can you watch that ?
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September 08, 2018, 04:10:58 AM
 #632

Which one feels more intuitive to you...?



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September 08, 2018, 11:35:01 AM
 #633

Which one feels more intuitive to you...?

Not sure why you turned chart upside down. Cos you want to tell us that all you did so far have no meaning?

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September 08, 2018, 09:28:13 PM
 #634

xxxx123abcxxxx, what makes you think upside-down charts are something to analyze the same way (with the same methods) as a normal chart?

I would assume the top and the bottom of a market chart are not switchable, as the up and down sides are not equivalent - just because the bottom has a hard limit - the zero, while the top has no limit set. Hence the graph look, behaviour and analysis there should be completely different. Sorry for my English. Hope I was able to explain what I mean.

Also - your second graph looks completely unnatural because of too steep rise(down-rise.. ehm) at the end - I believe no sane person expects new parabolic rise this year, even if he is bullish by some reason.

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September 08, 2018, 09:43:13 PM
 #635

One more point - I wonder why did you ignore the valid question from CookieFactory, and switched the topic..? Wink

There is a way to see the short/long positions ratio, but is there a way to estimate public sentiment in social media?

Note the social media providers are filtering and cherry-picking the content for each user so he sees only a subset of the real data he is used to see. That's the way they work - to offer you the content you are comfortable with, based on your previous preferences. So its best to browse after logging out first, whenever that's possible. But even then you cannot know whether you have the real picture.

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September 08, 2018, 11:11:23 PM
 #636

xxxx123abcxxxx, what makes you think upside-down charts are something to analyze the same way (with the same methods) as a normal chart?

I would assume the top and the bottom of a market chart are not switchable, as the up and down sides are not equivalent - just because the bottom has a hard limit - the zero, while the top has no limit set. Hence the graph look, behaviour and analysis there should be completely different. Sorry for my English. Hope I was able to explain what I mean.

Also - your second graph looks completely unnatural because of too steep rise(down-rise.. ehm) at the end - I believe no sane person expects new parabolic rise this year, even if he is bullish by some reason.

Warren Buffett said when he flipped the charts, he always got the same answer.
The purpose of inverting the chart, and hiding price/time scales, ought to help with removing investor bias; i.e. ask an outsider to choose which of the following they prefer to be most likely...




One more point - I wonder why did you ignore the valid question from CookieFactory, and switched the topic..? Wink

There is a way to see the short/long positions ratio, but is there a way to estimate public sentiment in social media?

Note the social media providers are filtering and cherry-picking the content for each user so he sees only a subset of the real data he is used to see. That's the way they work - to offer you the content you are comfortable with, based on your previous preferences. So its best to browse after logging out first, whenever that's possible. But even then you cannot know whether you have the real picture.

When I browse social media anonymously, i.e. YouTube/Twitter/Reddit/etc, I find the majority of viewpoints are overall positive and bullish towards cryptocurrencies. Nearly all the videos I see on YouTube expect a return to 20,000 and beyond at some point, whether next year or within 5 years. The /Bitcoin and /BitcoinMarkets sub Reddit sites are overwhelmingly positive and heavily criticize bearish viewpoints —see the comments on my Reddit posts!
 

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September 08, 2018, 11:31:33 PM
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 #637

its obvious the sentiment is overly positive... look at the polls on the wall observer thread, last time i checked (before the dump from 7300) 90% expected us to go up, only 10% expected us to see us under 7K. And look at the amount of hate OP receive, he's constantly aggressed because most posters here have no idea how to trade waves and think price is the most important aspect. Traders don't give a fuck about prices ! They are buying or selling a trend.

Anyway, when the admirers come and this thread is flood of people saying, WOW nice ! WOW I wish I had find that post earlier ! WOW you had the whole trend correct ! Well this will be an indicator that market sentiment is sensing. But for now, this thread receives no attention whatsoever whereas its the best one of the whole forum.

See you at 5Kish OP !
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September 08, 2018, 11:45:18 PM
 #638

Since the high of JUL-24, the characteristic of the market has changed: the waves have started to become elongated and are disregarding immediate support levels.

Should they be regarded, the following are immediate support levels en-route to 5178 (BITFINEX): 6194, 5890


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September 09, 2018, 12:44:11 AM
 #639

And look at the amount of hate OP receive, he's constantly aggressed because most posters here have no idea how to trade waves and think price is the most important aspect. Traders don't give a fuck about prices ! They are buying or selling a trend.
Funny. You probably mean short-term traders, or especially daytraders. But well, I get your point. But try to understand not everyone is a trader here, and those haters (I guess I am one of them in your book?) don't give a fuck about traders and their needs. They care about the longterm picture, and about people who might really invest into Bitcoin as a future currency or money store (whichever wins). As to the waves - yes, they are nicely drawn here. The real longterm (2-10 year) trend is what is important (to me), and it is exactly what makes me argue (call it hate, if you wish).

Anyway, when the admirers come and this thread is flood of people saying, WOW nice ! WOW I wish I had find that post earlier ! WOW you had the whole trend correct ! Well this will be an indicator that market sentiment is sensing. But for now, this thread receives no attention whatsoever whereas its the best one of the whole forum.

Didn't you notice yourself, Mr.Admirer? Grin ..or the other guy called 'cronos[something]? Or lots of others who send kudos to OP (muf18 for instance)?
I guess the number of pro- and contra- posters here is roughly equal. Note the ones who just take the advice of OP, are more silent - I assume they are busy trading and don't want to bring too much attention here, as trading is a zero-sum game as you know - traders are playing against each other and are eating each other's money (one of the reasons I don't like them), so no point in advertising a place where they get inspiration.

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September 09, 2018, 12:53:22 AM
 #640

Since the high of JUL-24, the characteristic of the market has changed: the waves have started to become elongated and are disregarding immediate support levels.

I've noticed one more change - the older waves (Feb-end of April) were going up fast, and going down slowly. While the last two waves were slowly creeping up and dumped down very fast. That's is especially visible on the 7-days chart.

Do you think that means something, or its just meaningless observation?

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