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Poll
Question: Bitcoin Value At The End Of 2011?
Less than 1 - 10 (3.5%)
1-5 - 5 (1.8%)
6-10 - 14 (5%)
11-15 - 15 (5.3%)
16-20 - 25 (8.9%)
21-25 - 28 (9.9%)
26-30 - 25 (8.9%)
31-35 - 19 (6.7%)
36-45 - 26 (9.2%)
Higher than 46 - 53 (18.8%)
Higher than 100 - 62 (22%)
Total Voters: 280

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Author Topic: Bitcoin Value At The End Of 2011?  (Read 7062 times)
lettucebee
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July 09, 2011, 12:46:48 AM
 #21

Oh my, this little project is SO vulnerable.  Bitcoin offers something really, really useful to the poor little people of the world who need to "send some money home", sort of like hawala.  (Exchangers need to be found on both ends.)  But this faction alone could greatly increase bitcoin's spread; it could take it worldwide and ubiquitous.  This kind of honest use takes bitcoin higher.

Another group is organized crime, but now we're talking a lot of money at one time.  How would these guys buy enough bitcoin and sell enough bitcoin on the other end to quickly fit within their paradigm?  I don't think bitcoin is ready for big transactions in and out of fiat currencies.  Unfortunately, organized crime may see the bitcoin community as a bunch of chumps to be taken advantage of.  They could set up an online exchange or an online wallet company (think MyBitcoin.com), earn people's trust, and then pull the plug and disappear.  In fact, patience would be rewarded such that it would pay off to stay in business, grow the business until the community trusts you, and THEN pull the plug.  This kind of crime takes bitcoin down and quickly.

Bitcoin's price is very vulnerable to crime.  Look what happened when Mt Gox got hacked.
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lettucebee
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July 09, 2011, 01:30:38 AM
 #22

I just had a vision, clear as day.  Here's what's going to happen.  As the police state in the U.S. consolidates its control over every aspect of daily life, very soon they will impose capital controls in order to prevent people from moving money offshore. At this point, the black market for bitcoin will go thru the roof. Sites like ubitex will be discovered, ads will appear on craigslist, rendezvous points will be agreed upon and bitcoin will be one of the ways that people protect their money from confiscatory inflation.

This will be a tough, dangerous environment in which to sell, but those with smarts and courage will be rewarded.  In this scenario, bitcoin price will be high.
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July 09, 2011, 03:31:55 AM
 #23

I just had a vision, clear as day.  Here's what's going to happen.  As the police state in the U.S. consolidates its control over every aspect of daily life, very soon they will impose capital controls in order to prevent people from moving money offshore. At this point, the black market for bitcoin will go thru the roof. Sites like ubitex will be discovered, ads will appear on craigslist, rendezvous points will be agreed upon and bitcoin will be one of the ways that people protect their money from confiscatory inflation.

This will be a tough, dangerous environment in which to sell, but those with smarts and courage will be rewarded.  In this scenario, bitcoin price will be high.

You talk about this as if the government crackdown on capital movement is in the future. It's already going on.

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July 09, 2011, 04:28:42 AM
 #24

I just had a vision, clear as day.  Here's what's going to happen.  As the police state in the U.S. consolidates its control over every aspect of daily life, very soon they will impose capital controls in order to prevent people from moving money offshore. At this point, the black market for bitcoin will go thru the roof. Sites like ubitex will be discovered, ads will appear on craigslist, rendezvous points will be agreed upon and bitcoin will be one of the ways that people protect their money from confiscatory inflation.

This will be a tough, dangerous environment in which to sell, but those with smarts and courage will be rewarded.  In this scenario, bitcoin price will be high.

You talk about this as if the government crackdown on capital movement is in the future. It's already going on.

True, but not very many people need to move large amounts of value across borders.  And if bitcoin is flowing out of the country to facilitate capital flight, then goods would need to be moving out as well, in order to get bitcoins to flow back in.  Otherwise the bitcoins within the country become scarce.  Keep in mind that currencies are just placeholders for goods, somehow those goods still have to move.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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July 09, 2011, 06:02:04 AM
 #25

one bitcoin

Thread winner. The poll does not specify units.

The people taking gold/silver parity often don't use units either (when they mean 'worth the same as 1 once' .. I think.).

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July 09, 2011, 06:41:29 AM
 #26

i see a floor of somewhere around 40 USD.

spikes of double that.

but really, it's the end of 2012 my game is focused on...
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July 10, 2011, 07:06:48 PM
 #27

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l91ISfcuzDw Wink

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July 10, 2011, 07:12:54 PM
 #28


+1 Cheesy
Grouver (BtcBalance)
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July 10, 2011, 10:11:50 PM
 #29

Its quite hard to predict this.
This is cause many people will base it on how fast it was growing in the past.
But you never know what happens next.
Maybe another major bitcoin website gets hacked.
Maybe Bruce Wagner shoots his tv ad that is gonna be broadcasted around the world up in the air.

Also keep in mind its about real money now, its not about cents or single dollars anymore.
You cannot mine with your sempron cpu anymore, those days are over.
Well you can still mine with it but its currently not profitable.

Though just to pull a  number out of thin air.

I think its gonna be around 30-ish.

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July 11, 2011, 01:52:46 AM
 #30

1 btc = 1 barrel crude = 3 oz ag = 0.1 oz au = 1000 usd, 25 December 2011

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July 11, 2011, 02:14:47 AM
 #31

Ever since June the price has been going down, down, and down....

Really not sure how all of you think it will be worth $30 or more by the end of the year

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imperi
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July 11, 2011, 02:21:27 AM
 #32

Ever since June the price has been going down, down, and down....

Really not sure how all of you think it will be worth $30 or more by the end of the year

Have you by any chance looked at the prices throughout the past year?
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July 11, 2011, 02:34:18 AM
 #33

I just had a vision, clear as day.  Here's what's going to happen.  As the police state in the U.S. consolidates its control over every aspect of daily life, very soon they will impose capital controls in order to prevent people from moving money offshore. At this point, the black market for bitcoin will go thru the roof. Sites like ubitex will be discovered, ads will appear on craigslist, rendezvous points will be agreed upon and bitcoin will be one of the ways that people protect their money from confiscatory inflation.

This will be a tough, dangerous environment in which to sell, but those with smarts and courage will be rewarded.  In this scenario, bitcoin price will be high.

That would mean  iPhone made in USA, etc, etc  - this is not going to happen anytime soon. Although I think it would be great for US economy to bring back offshore businesses; tax the hell out of imports - money would naturally circulate in land, no need for police state for that.
You just can't prevent money going outside and keep doing international business. Oil is another big factor in this.
kiwiasian
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July 11, 2011, 02:57:23 AM
 #34

Ever since June the price has been going down, down, and down....

Really not sure how all of you think it will be worth $30 or more by the end of the year

Have you by any chance looked at the prices throughout the past year?

Yes, it has been going up.
Until June.
Since then it has just been going down and not stopping.
(or lingering in the same price range)

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July 11, 2011, 03:04:55 AM
 #35

Yes, it has been going up.
Until June.
Since then it has just been going down and not stopping.
(or lingering in the same price range)

There have been several downward periods in the last year. The price rose significantly after each.

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July 11, 2011, 04:32:51 AM
 #36

+1 end of 2012 will be an interesting time.
netrin
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July 11, 2011, 04:41:36 AM
 #37

I'm only worried that when 10 000 dollars and euros buy a troy ounce of gold, the miners won't be able to afford to keep the network lit. Otherwise, I'm shorting euros with bitcoin.

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July 11, 2011, 04:43:58 AM
 #38

I really can't wait to see where the price of Bitcoin goes, and the social impact along with it. I think that right now is the calm before the storm, and June was like a gust of wind.
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July 11, 2011, 04:50:12 AM
 #39

+1 end of 2012 will be an interesting time.


Why? You think the election will have somehow have an impact, or just that 1.4yrs is about how long it'll take for a number of things to reach critical mass?

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
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July 11, 2011, 05:57:30 AM
 #40

Another group is organized crime, but now we're talking a lot of money at one time.  How would these guys buy enough bitcoin and sell enough bitcoin on the other end to quickly fit within their paradigm?  I don't think bitcoin is ready for big transactions in and out of fiat currencies. 

I think if they started paying all their sources, dealers, and employees in bitcoin, that won't be a problem. Trying to cash out a single $100,000 windfall into USD to pay your workers may be a problem, but splitting that up into smaller chunks to pay that out to all their members, who then each cash out for smaller amounts at various times, should be fairly easy. Bitcoin makes that much easier than any other alternatives I can think of (Lindens work, too, but they're not as convenient/anonymous).
Just speculating here btw.  Tongue

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