did ASIC ruin bitcoin ?

[DeathAndTaxes]

why the fuck would anybody spend money on equipment pay electric and commit time if you cant make money?

if its not profitable to mine people wont mine and bitcoin will fail.

Difficulty adjusts.  If SOME people stop mining then difficulty will fall and those remaining will see their revenue rise and become profitable.  If difficulty falls too much then some people will turn rigs back on or buy new rigs and difficulty will rise again.  The network will adjust either way.

Also once hardware is purchased it is a sunk cost.  So long AFTER it becomes unprofitable to buy MORE NEW hardware, miners will continue to still operate their miners.  The only time it makes sense to a rig to be idle is when value of BTC < electricity used and that is at a difficulty much much higher (closer to 1 billion difficulty).  Even there it won't affect all miners equally.  The least efficient miners (lowerst MH/W and highest electrical cost) will idle first and help to lower difficulty.

So yes some miners may quit (and sell their rigs to other miners will cheaper power) and NEW hardware sales may flatline but miners will still keep mining as there is no economical reason not to.

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[WEB slicer]

if there is money to be made i WILL be making it. but unless something drastic happens i dont think there is any money to be made for the core community. the power has shifted from the community to the companies. if there is money to be made big companies WILL spit out the machines corner the market and make it impossible for average users to earn cause by the time we get the new equipment they already made all the money and difficulty will be to high for us to earn. big money wins and the little guy gets fucked, as always. and its not your average fuck job cause they will make all the coins then turn around and make money off selling us the machines that are worthless cause they already made all the money. its a double money grab with a double fuck at the end.

[CurbsideProphet]

when you spend up the ass for the equipment it takes months to deliver and when you have the equipment in hand the difficulty is so high you risk losing money cause you cant make ROI i think that makes bitcoin look like a joke and a huge gamble thus making bitcoin less attractive and could lead to panic selling and collapse.

To me it makes the company look like a joke, not Bitcoin.  Like any consumer, speak with your wallet.  MtGox has shown time and time again to be incompetent, so I've taken my business elsewhere.  BFL is known to be run by people who have criminal pasts, so I choose to not conduct business with them.  This isn't about Bitcoin, it's about due diligence and personal responsibility.

[millsdmb]

why the fuck would anybody spend money on equipment pay electric and commit time if you cant make money?

if its not profitable to mine people wont mine and bitcoin will fail.

Difficulty adjusts.  If SOME people stop mining then difficulty will fall and those remaining will see their revenue rise and become profitable.  If difficulty falls too much then some people will turn rigs back on or buy new rigs and difficulty will rise again.  The network will adjust either way.

Also once hardware is purchased it is a sunk cost.  So long AFTER it becomes unprofitable to buy MORE NEW hardware, miners will continue to still operate their miners.  The only time it makes sense to a rig to be idle is when value of BTC < electricity used and that is at a difficulty much much higher (closer to 1 billion difficulty).  Even there it won't affect all miners equally.  The least efficient miners (lowerst MH/W and highest electrical cost) will idle first and help to lower difficulty.

So yes some miners may quit (and sell their rigs to other miners will cheaper power) and NEW hardware sales may flatline but miners will still keep mining as there is no economical reason not to.

Just to clarify, the general consensus is that ASICS will not lead to a more centralized mining group, correct? Be it in 10 years, 20, 30, whenever.

At some point, miners will be left only with TX fees, or contracts for fast confirmations.

I am not in agreement with OP generally, as I am presently mining with a couple ASICS and see no reason why he couldn't be as well. I am likely only to break even and am OK with that.

[JoelKatz]

why the fuck would anybody spend money on ASIC equipment pay electric and commit time if you cant make money?

if its not profitable to mine people wont mine and bitcoin will fail. at least people had a reason to spend money on GPU ASIC worthless if its not profitable.

If a restaurant is too crowded, nobody will eat there and it will go out of business.

[millsdmb]

why the fuck would anybody spend money on ASIC equipment pay electric and commit time if you cant make money?

if its not profitable to mine people wont mine and bitcoin will fail. at least people had a reason to spend money on GPU ASIC worthless if its not profitable.

If a restaurant is too crowded, nobody will eat there and it will go out of business.

if a restaurant is too crowded will cheesecake factory buy all of them and turn every one into cheesecake factories?

=D I want Buffalo Blasts

[WEB slicer]

I am likely only to break even and am OK with that.

fuck that, you may be OK with that but i will bet you my soul the majority of people will not be OK with that. people dont invest to break even. they expect or hope for a healthy return.

[Mike Christ]

If a restaurant is too crowded, nobody will eat there and it will go out of business.

/thread

[millsdmb]

I am likely only to break even and am OK with that.

fuck that, you may be OK with that but i will bet you my soul the majority of people will not be OK with that. people dont invest to break even. they expect or hope for a return.

Buy BTC.

[WEB slicer]

BTC will be worthless once big money has a choke hold on the BTC earned.

[Mike Christ]

BTC will be worthless once big money has a choke hold on the BTC earned.

Something about "worthless" and "big money" being in the same sentence is ringing as dissonance in my ears.

[astutiumRob]

if its not profitable to mine people wont mine and bitcoin will fail

Only if the reason they mined was for the block-reward  :p

As a business we accept BTC, it's in our commercial interest to see transactions confirmed quickly, maintain multiple copies of the blockchain, and so on - it's _nice_ to see some Satoshi's from the miner, but it's certainly not necessary.

[WEB slicer]

Something about "worthless" and "big money" being in the same sentence is ringing as dissonance in my ears.

they will make the money and bail just like mining for gold oil or diamonds in third world countries. they will be there when its profitable and fuck you when they cant make no more.

[millsdmb]

Something about "worthless" and "big money" being in the same sentence is ringing as dissonance in my ears.

they will make the money and bail just like mining for gold oil or diamonds in third world countries. they will be there when its profitable and fuck you when they cant make no more off you.

What about when there are 0 btc left to be mined? Imagine we are in 2141. Are you happy with mining for TX fees?

[WEB slicer]

nope, if i cant make a reasonable amount i will find something else to do.

[millsdmb]

if its not profitable to mine people wont mine and bitcoin will fail

...it's in our commercial interest to see transactions confirmed quickly, maintain multiple copies of the blockchain, and so on - it's _nice_ to see some Satoshi's from the miner, but it's certainly not necessary.

This will be the future, IMO...established companies with the proper equipment selling contracts to ensure the fastest confirms.

[millsdmb]

nope, if i cant make a reasonable amount that positively effects my life i will find something else to do.

But bitcoin won't die because of that.

[WEB slicer]

bitcoin might die because of ASIC and be replaced by bitcoin 2.0 or some new P2P digital currency. the first of anything never lasts it either dies and goes away for good or it evolves and gets replaced by something better. either way i think the future of bitcoin as it works today looks questionable. the good ol days of GPU mining are over. hopefully the next round they figure out a way to deal with people controlling the market and having the difficulty shit on ROI.

[David Rabahy]

I think *maybe*, unlike the current flurry of alternative "coins", Bitcoin 2.0 (whatever that is) would do well to provide a relatively short period of time during which Bitcoin 1.0 coins can be readily converted at a fixed rate (as opposed to exchanged at a varying amount indefinitely).  This is not to say post-conversion Bitcoin 1.0 coins would be worthless; on the contrary, the variable exchange would start then and be determined by classic market forces.  If it is well thought out, handled carefully and with some luck then a large amount of value could flow into Bitcoin 2.0 minimizing the disruption.

If one tries to stand up Bitcoin 2.0 without a conversion program then it is just like any other alternative coin and will likely suffer from a lack of investment.

I'm not sure going all the way to an automatic conversion program is better.  Trying to force Bitcoin 1.0 to shutdown altogether might be tough.

Incremental changes from 0.8.3-beta through to 1.0 and beyond and even to 2.0 or higher might not be able to achieve fundamental enhancements like becoming ASIC hostile.

[01BTC10]

Gold mining margin is too damn small so gold will fail.