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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 939885 times)
segeln
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January 15, 2014, 04:29:49 PM
 #1261

So anyway, then came (roughly) December 2012/January 2013, and that orange line was broken. So it had to be redrawn.
I think we are a bit hair-splitting now about drawing the proper line.
I never drew the orange line and I dont not know wether the professional analysts from the german webside did it.(I doubt it)
If a solid trend  is going about to be broken you have also to take in account the time -scale.
Breaking a solid trendline is not done in a few hours/days, it takes more time.

Let me say a last word about the godmodetrader.de chart:in these nervous days/weeks here on bitcointalk.org I am very confident referring to that Chart since I am longterm-involved.
I can`t stand these hour-/days-charts as posted here so many times.
BTC is too dynamic to get "fenced" in charts like that.

Do you agree ?
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January 15, 2014, 04:42:52 PM
 #1262

So anyway, then came (roughly) December 2012/January 2013, and that orange line was broken. So it had to be redrawn.
I think we are a bit hair-splitting now about drawing the proper line.
I never drew the orange line and I dont not know wether the professional analysts from the german webside did it.(I doubt it)
If a solid trend  is going about to be broken you have also to take in account the time -scale.
Breaking a solid trendline is not done in a few days, it takes more time.

Let me say a last word about the godmodetrader.de chart:in these nervous days/weeks here on bitcointalk.org I am very confident referring to that Chart since I am longterm-involved.
I can`t stand these hour-/days-charts as posted here so many times.
BTC is too dynamic to get "fenced" in charts like that.

Do you agree ?

Yes, and no. If your point is to zoom out a bit, look at the big picture, and encourage people to hold instead of panic sell: sure. It makes sense to post a log trendline and point out that price can go higher, can fall down, but in the end it looks like we're in a very long uptrend.

But my 'orange line' example above wasn't purely semantic: it is the ultimate problem of what we're doing here -- using past data, analyzing it, and extrapolating to the future. And that alway carries the risk that it can at some point stop. "The Trend Is Your Friend, Until It Ends" holds for the short term view as much as it does for the ultra long term view.

We probably agree in a more practical sense: price would have to fall much much deeper before I begin questioning the overall uptrend that BTC saw since trading began. It's just that I would never call it a "bull market" if price would deflate all the way to, say, 90 USD. So in that sense, it's a semantical distinction: what you call "bull market" I wouldn't apply to such a long time frame, but calling it an "uptrend" I'm fine with.

That said, *if* we would fall back to 90, there's a good chance IMO we'd break through it. Not saying that BTC is finished in that case, but so much investor's confidence would be destroyed that all previous trends would, probably, be broken.

But tbh, I highly doubt it'll come to that. In fact, I'd be surprised if we ever visit sub-500 for longer than a few hours, maybe a few days, again.

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January 15, 2014, 04:49:42 PM
 #1263

So anyway, then came (roughly) December 2012/January 2013, and that orange line was broken. So it had to be redrawn.
I think we are a bit hair-splitting now about drawing the proper line.
I never drew the orange line and I dont not know wether the professional analysts from the german webside did it.(I doubt it)
If a solid trend  is going about to be broken you have also to take in account the time -scale.
Breaking a solid trendline is not done in a few hours/days, it takes more time.

Let me say a last word about the godmodetrader.de chart:in these nervous days/weeks here on bitcointalk.org I am very confident referring to that Chart since I am longterm-involved.
I can`t stand these hour-/days-charts as posted here so many times.
BTC is too dynamic to get "fenced" in charts like that.

Do you agree ?

Price has many components.  Several components are best modeled as random variables in some distribution(s).  If your trade frequency --which is limited by friction created by fees -- is high enough, then you can profit from relatively low S/N ratios, over the long run.  This is the basic ideology of successfuly high-frequency trading.  A great motivator for this approach is that risk is quite low for very short term trades.  The result is slow steady gains.  The analytic, technical, and market apparatus required is fairly substantial, however.

The more frequently you can trade with a given constant edge, the greater your gains over time.  Eliciting an edge of a given magnitude for a short term trade is much more difficult than eliciting an edge of that magnitude for a longer term trade.  

On a scale of human life, the reward/risk ratio for BTC is astronomical, and epistemic problems, analytic problems, market frictions, are inconsequential.

A rational maximizer of expected outcome will attempt to scale their time-frames to their epistemic, analytic, and mechanical resources.

Most players will fail to assess their correct scale, due to Dunning-Kruger effect.  They will trade too frequently, and probably suffer from other deep mistakes.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
segeln
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January 15, 2014, 04:59:12 PM
Last edit: January 16, 2014, 12:07:35 PM by segeln
 #1264

"The Trend Is Your Friend, Until It Ends"

very nice,I saw it first time now.
Quote
We probably agree in a more practical sense: price would have to fall much much deeper before I begin questioning the overall uptrend that BTC saw since trading began. It's just that I would never call it a "bull market" if price would deflate all the way to, say, 90 USD. So in that sense, it's a semantical distinction: what you call "bull market" I wouldn't apply to such a long time frame, but calling it an "uptrend" I'm fine with.
So we both are fine with.
Since I am not an english native Speaker you had really challenged me.

Quote
But tbh, I highly doubt it'll come to that. In fact, I'd be surprised if we ever visit sub-500 for longer than a few hours, maybe a few days, again.
I agree
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January 15, 2014, 09:05:12 PM
 #1265



re: double exponentiation. there is not "official" explanation, just like there is not "official" explanation of simple log linear price models. they tend to work as an approximation, although I would alway point out that they're too imprecise to trade on. If you want the actual source of the graph, I already gave you a name, user Ducky1.


I just wanted to say thank you to oda.krell for a splendid explanation of the graphs.

Just a point of note:

There are two (and only two) hypothesizes in this graph:

1. The price follows an exponential rise on this time scale (and onwards).
2. The price follows an double exponential rise on this time scale (and onwards).

The coefficient of determination (R2) clearly shows that hypothesizes 2 is more likely. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coefficient_of_determination

From end date of this graph and onwards, for every date the price stays closer to the green line than the red line the 2nd hypothesis is strengthened. I plan to revisit this graph at the end of the month to re- evaluate. What seems clear is that we need a substantial and long lasting price fall for the 1st hypothesis to be strengthened.


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oda.krell
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January 15, 2014, 11:03:26 PM
 #1266



re: double exponentiation. there is not "official" explanation, just like there is not "official" explanation of simple log linear price models. they tend to work as an approximation, although I would alway point out that they're too imprecise to trade on. If you want the actual source of the graph, I already gave you a name, user Ducky1.


I just wanted to say thank you to oda.krell for a splendid explanation of the graphs.

Just a point of note:

There are two (and only two) hypothesizes in this graph:

1. The price follows an exponential rise on this time scale (and onwards).
2. The price follows an double exponential rise on this time scale (and onwards).

The coefficient of determination (R2) clearly shows that hypothesizes 2 is more likely. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coefficient_of_determination

From end date of this graph and onwards, for every date the price stays closer to the green line than the red line the 2nd hypothesis is strengthened. I plan to revisit this graph at the end of the month to re- evaluate. What seems clear is that we need a substantial and long lasting price fall for the 1st hypothesis to be strengthened.


hehehe, at the risk of annoying you, and everyone else... you have one more assumption, what I called assumption a) in my post: that it is exactly *one* function generating the entire data. Absolutely non-obvious assumption, that one Cheesy

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samurai1200
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January 16, 2014, 03:33:17 AM
 #1267

So anyway, then came (roughly) December 2012/January 2013, and that orange line was broken. So it had to be redrawn.
I think we are a bit hair-splitting now about drawing the proper line.
I never drew the orange line and I dont not know wether the professional analysts from the german webside did it.(I doubt it)
If a solid trend  is going about to be broken you have also to take in account the time -scale.
Breaking a solid trendline is not done in a few hours/days, it takes more time.

Let me say a last word about the godmodetrader.de chart:in these nervous days/weeks here on bitcointalk.org I am very confident referring to that Chart since I am longterm-involved.
I can`t stand these hour-/days-charts as posted here so many times.
BTC is too dynamic to get "fenced" in charts like that.

Do you agree ?

Price has many components.  Several components are best modeled as random variables in some distribution(s).  If your trade frequency --which is limited by friction created by fees -- is high enough, then you can profit from relatively low S/N ratios, over the long run.  This is the basic ideology of successfuly high-frequency trading.  A great motivator for this approach is that risk is quite low for very short term trades.  The result is slow steady gains.  The analytic, technical, and market apparatus required is fairly substantial, however.

The more frequently you can trade with a given constant edge, the greater your gains over time.  Eliciting an edge of a given magnitude for a short term trade is much more difficult than eliciting an edge of that magnitude for a longer term trade.  

On a scale of human life, the reward/risk ratio for BTC is astronomical, and epistemic problems, analytic problems, market frictions, are inconsequential.

A rational maximizer of expected outcome will attempt to scale their time-frames to their epistemic, analytic, and mechanical resources.

Most players will fail to assess their correct scale, due to Dunning-Kruger effect.  They will trade too frequently, and probably suffer from other deep mistakes.


This was lovely. Thank you.

Hodl for the longest tiem.

Use it or lose it: http://coinmap.org/
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January 18, 2014, 03:12:32 PM
 #1268

uh-oh, is this the ultimate Elliott wave contrarian indicator?  Cheesy

http://www.broadwayworld.com/bwwgeeks/article/Elliott-Wave-International-Becomes-First-Market-Forecasting-Firm-to-Accept-Bitcoin-20140117

I wonder why they didn't start accepting them back in September 2010 when they ran their first article, and a bitcoin was only worth 6 cents?
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January 20, 2014, 01:40:31 PM
Last edit: January 20, 2014, 01:53:44 PM by masterluc
 #1269

Happy new year )

What I see? I see zig-zags, price in positive both daily and weekly BB. What could it mean? It could mean true ending diagonal, which never happened before. And also very fucking risky.





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January 20, 2014, 01:53:35 PM
 #1270

@masterluc

happy new year to you too Smiley

so you dont see another important leg down on the price before it continues its surge?
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January 20, 2014, 01:56:45 PM
 #1271

so you dont see another important leg down on the price before it continues its surge?
The bearish impulse had been destroyed by last lower high. This doesn't cancel bearish scenario, but creates a possibility of additional bullish leg up in form of zig-zag (not impulse). I mentioned this possible move when I was 80% out of bitcoins.

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January 20, 2014, 02:35:06 PM
 #1272

so you dont see another important leg down on the price before it continues its surge?
The bearish impulse had been destroyed by last lower high. This doesn't cancel bearish scenario, but creates a possibility of additional bullish leg up in form of zig-zag (not impulse). I mentioned this possible move when I was 80% out of bitcoins.

Welcome back, lucif!
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January 20, 2014, 10:11:41 PM
 #1273

i'm having trouble drawing this.  Smiley

where is the top of subwave 1 in this formation?

do you have ~ targets for throw-over?

thanks. Cheesy
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January 20, 2014, 10:32:46 PM
 #1274

so you dont see another important leg down on the price before it continues its surge?
The bearish impulse had been destroyed by last lower high. This doesn't cancel bearish scenario, but creates a possibility of additional bullish leg up in form of zig-zag (not impulse). I mentioned this possible move when I was 80% out of bitcoins.

Wow. Are we to assume you are back into bitcoins now?

Welcome back, btw. And Happy new year to you too.
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January 20, 2014, 10:36:02 PM
 #1275

Happy new year )

What I see? I see zig-zags, price in positive both daily and weekly BB. What could it mean? It could mean true ending diagonal, which never happened before. And also very fucking risky.






Interesting, other EW specialists have come out with a similar opinion as yours. Like DanV on tradingview: https://www.tradingview.com/v/mfpi2W6F/ . He's talking about a 'Flat Wave' and a 3-3-5 correction going on with a top around 1150 to 1300+ withing the next couple of weeks from now and then a serious correction down. I'm not really sure I understand and believe all of that, but I thought the resemblance with your EW analysis was interesting and was wondering what your thoughts were on this. Smiley

Bitcoin = Gold on steroids
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January 20, 2014, 10:52:23 PM
 #1276

Wow. Are we to assume you are back into bitcoins now?

Welcome back, btw. And Happy new year to you too.
I'm 20% still =) Bought few cars =)

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January 21, 2014, 04:08:45 AM
 #1277

Wow. Are we to assume you are back into bitcoins now?

Welcome back, btw. And Happy new year to you too.
I'm 20% still =) Bought few cars =)

'few cars'? Are you totaling one each day?

So, its still too risky for you to buy in?


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January 21, 2014, 11:30:27 AM
 #1278

What I see? I see zig-zags, price in positive both daily and weekly BB. What could it mean? It could mean true ending diagonal, which never happened before. And also very fucking risky.
See this forecast: It's the result of long in-depth anal-ysis and fundamental investigation: ^^


A part of me agrees with this chart wholly. very reasonable and well proportioned.

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January 21, 2014, 01:17:20 PM
 #1279

A part of me agrees with this chart wholly. very reasonable and well proportioned.
 

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January 21, 2014, 03:21:18 PM
 #1280

What I see? I see zig-zags, price in positive both daily and weekly BB. What could it mean? It could mean true ending diagonal, which never happened before. And also very fucking risky.
See this forecast: It's the result of long in-depth anal-ysis and fundamental investigation: ^^


A part of me agrees with this chart wholly. very reasonable and well proportioned.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irving_Fisher

Irving Fisher was perhaps the first celebrity economist, but his reputation during his lifetime was irreparably harmed by his public statements, just prior to the Wall Street Crash of 1929, claiming that the stock market had reached "a permanently high plateau."

Stock market crash of 1929

The stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression cost Fisher much of his personal wealth and academic reputation. He famously predicted, three days before the crash, "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." Irving Fisher stated on October 21 that the market was "only shaking out of the lunatic fringe" and went on to explain why he felt the prices still had not caught up with their real value and should go much higher. On Wednesday, October 23, he announced in a banker’s meeting "security values in most instances were not inflated." For months after the Crash, he continued to assure investors that a recovery was just around the corner. Once the Great Depression was in full force, he did warn that the ongoing drastic deflation was the cause of the disastrous cascading insolvencies then plaguing the American economy because deflation increased the real value of debts fixed in dollar terms. Fisher was so discredited by his 1929 pronouncements and by the failure of a firm he had started that few people took notice of his "debt-deflation" analysis of the Depression. People instead eagerly turned to the ideas of Keynes. Fisher's debt-deflation scenario has since seen a revival since the 1980s.

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